Economy Stocks thread v28: in loving memory of Rob Mafia and Brackis1

TACO Trump has returned:



Something like a Poodle dressed up as a Bulldog or market manipulation. Trigger stop losses/margin calls to get small fry out of positions. <mma4>

What would be funny is if markets dumped and didn't roar back again. He would really throw a tantrum.
 

Wall Street tumbles to its worst day since April after Trump threatens more tariffs on China


BY STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — A monthslong calm on Wall Street shattered Friday, and U.S. stocks tumbled after President Donald Trump threatened to crank tariffs much higher on China.

The S&P 500 sank 2.7% in its worst day since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 878 points, or 1.9%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 3.6%.

Stocks had been heading for a slight gain in the morning, until Trump took to his social media platform and said he’s considering “a massive increase of tariffs” on Chinese imports. He’s upset at restrictions China has placed on exports of its rare earths, which are materials that are critical for the manufacturing of everything from consumer electronics to jet engines.

“We have been contacted by other Countries who are extremely angry at this great Trade hostility, which came out of nowhere,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He also said “now there seems to be no reason” to meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, after earlier agreeing to do so as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea.

The ratchet higher in tensions between the world’s largest economies led to widespread drops across Wall Street, with roughly six out of every seven stocks within the S&P 500 falling. Nearly everything weakened, from Big Tech companies like Nvidia and Apple to stocks of smaller companies looking to get past uncertainty about tariffs and trade.

The market may have been primed for a slide. U.S. stocks were already facing criticism that their prices had shot too high following the S&P 500’s nearly relentless 35% run from a low in April. The index, which dictates the movements for many 401(k) accounts, is still near its all-time high set earlier in the week.

Critics say the market looks too expensive after prices rose much faster than corporate profits. Worries are particularly high about companies in the artificial-intelligence industry, where pessimists see echoes of the 2000 dot-com bubble that imploded. For stocks to look less expensive, either their prices need to fall, or companies’ profits need to rise.

Levi Strauss dropped 12.6% for one of the market’s larger losses, even though it reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

Its forecast for profit over the full year was also within range of Wall Street’s estimates, but the jeans and clothing company could simply be facing the challenge of heightened expectations after a big run. Its stock price came into the day with a surge of nearly 42% for the year so far.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 182.60 points to 6,552.51. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 878.82 to 45,479.60, and the Nasdaq composite sank 820.20 to 22,204.43.

Some of Friday’s strongest action was in the oil market, where the price of a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude sank 4.2% to $58.90.

It fell as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. An end to the war could remove worries about disruptions to oil supplies, which had kept crude’s price higher than it otherwise would have been.

Losses accelerated following Trump’s tariff threat, which could gum up global trade and lead the economy to burn less fuel. Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 3.8% to $62.73 per barrel.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury sank to 4.05% from 4.14% late Thursday.

It had already been lower before Trump made his threats, as a report from the University of Michigan suggested that sentiment among U.S. consumers remains in the doldrums.

“Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds,” according to Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. “At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors.”

The job market has slowed so much that the Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate last month for the first time this year. Fed officials have penciled in more cuts through next year to give the economy additional breathing room. But Chair Jerome Powell has also said they may change course if inflation stays high. That’s because lower interest rates can push inflation even higher.

One potentially encouraging signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey said consumers’ expectations for inflation in the coming year edged down to 4.6% from 4.7% the month before. While that’s still high, the direction of change could help the Fed and limit upward pressure on inflation.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia.


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.7%, and France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.5% for two of the bigger moves. But South Korea’s Kospi leaped 1.7% after trading reopened following a holiday.

https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-rates-ai-f2c8bcc1f46043ab504cf4b0281e3401
 

Markets rebound amid latest US-China tariff spat as traders look to possible ‘Taco trade’​

US S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes rise and cryptocurrencies rebound after Trump post on Truth Social

Lauren Almeida

Global stock markets have edged higher and cryptocurrencies rebounded amid signs that a new front in the US-China trade war may not be as severe as first feared.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated again on Friday and over the weekend, as Donald Trump threatened to impose additional US tariffs of 100% on China starting next month.

The US president accused the country of “very hostile” moves to restrict exports of rare-earth minerals needed for American industry. Beijing said it would retaliate if Trump did not back down.

However, Trump and senior US officials opened a door to a possible deal with China on Sunday. The president wrote on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

The comments have offered some comfort for investors in the US and Europe, with stocks opening mostly higher on Monday.

In the US, the S&P 500 blue-chip index rose by 1.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index rose by 1.7%. The UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index rose by 0.2% in early trading, before falling slightly by 0.1% in the afternoon.


Markets in much of the rest of Europe were muted, with the French Cac 40 index broadly flat, Spain’s Ibex 35 up 0.2% and Germany’s Dax up 0.3%.

Most big cryptocurrencies rebounded after a deep sell-off over the weekend. Bitcoin edged up by 0.3% to more than $115,000, after falling below $105,000 on Friday. Ether had dropped to less than $3,500 but rebounded to about $4,100.

Richard Hunter, of the broker Interactive Investor, said investors were hoping for a “Taco trade”, which is the idea that markets rally because “Trump Always Chickens Out” (Taco) of aggressive tariff decisions.

“The president’s propensity to shoot from the hip unsettles the investment environment, even though some are already speculating that the Taco trade is alive and well,” he said.

However, a heightened sense of uncertainty is pushing investors to gold, which is considered a safe haven asset. Its spot price hit another new high on Monday, rising to as high as $4,078.5 an ounce.

Derren Nathan, of the broker Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Traders may be banking on a similar pattern where American indexes entered a six-month period of almost unbroken growth helped by a string of trade deals, and growing hopes of a soft landing for the US economy.”

Shares in the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca – which made a deal with Trump to lower drug prices and avoid tariffs over the weekend – initially rose on Monday morning, before falling back by 0.5%.

Investors were still nervous in Asia, with main markets wobbling on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped by 1.5%, while the Taiwanese market fell by 1.4%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen exchange fell by 0.9% and the Shanghai market slipped 0.2%.

On Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged the US to promptly correct its “wrong practices” and said it would act to safeguard its interests.

Despite the trade tensions, Chinese exports bounced back in September, topping forecasts as it diversified its markets.

Chinese exports rose by 8.3% year on year last month, according to official customs data. This was the fastest growth since March, and beat a 6% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. It comes after a 4.4% increase in August.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/13/markets-rebound-us-china-tariff-taco-trade

@44nutman
 
FUCK YES!!!

It worked out.

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 19, 2025--Sable Offshore Corp. (“Sable,” or the “Company”)(NYSE: SOC) today announced that as of May 15, 2025, it has restarted production at the Santa Ynez Unit (“SYU”)

Sold at $33.76. Two batches I bought were equal amounts.

First batch bought 12/30/24: 41.55% gain. 147.43% annualized gain.
Second batch bought 04/08/25: 105.35% gain. 60,432.31% annualized gain.
Damn, dodged a bullet with this one. Soon after they got what seemed like the green light and I sold, for all them gainz, they faced nothing but red tape blocking their way. Down another 22% today, all the way to $13.82 right now. I ended up selling close to the all-time high. Good thing I wasn't feeling greedy and held on.
 
Something like a Poodle dressed up as a Bulldog or market manipulation. Trigger stop losses/margin calls to get small fry out of positions. <mma4>

What would be funny is if markets dumped and didn't roar back again. He would really throw a tantrum.
God bless for ETF's. - Boring me.
 
Really good chart of all the AI money moving around in circles. I'm not someone calling it a bubble, but it's definitely an industry that's propping itself up in some areas in order to keep the outside money flooding in like crazy.

Kind of like military industrial complex in some ways. Aerospace has been like this at times.

5M7fIEgWVOnWljfj5ADjOx_1_Screenshot_2025-10-15_at_11.37.03%C3%A2__AM.png
 
Really good chart of all the AI money moving around in circles. I'm not someone calling it a bubble, but it's definitely an industry that's propping itself up in some areas in order to keep the outside money flooding in like crazy.

Kind of like military industrial complex in some ways. Aerospace has been like this at times.

5M7fIEgWVOnWljfj5ADjOx_1_Screenshot_2025-10-15_at_11.37.03%C3%A2__AM.png
Don't underestimate how big this bubble can get

Ride the wave brudda
 
Really good chart of all the AI money moving around in circles. I'm not someone calling it a bubble, but it's definitely an industry that's propping itself up in some areas in order to keep the outside money flooding in like crazy.

Kind of like military industrial complex in some ways. Aerospace has been like this at times.

5M7fIEgWVOnWljfj5ADjOx_1_Screenshot_2025-10-15_at_11.37.03%C3%A2__AM.png
Oh it's a bubble. Look at the difference between revenue and spend.

Keep in mind also the only reason Coreweave is a huge player was they were in crypto and lucked out with AI saving them from that crash.
 
I saw a pretty good cage match between Betty White and Hulk Hogan the other day. I say we throw a few more trillion $ at this AI project.
 
I was too young to be actively investing during the dot com bubble, but I remember it and I've read a lot about it. I was in the market when the Great Recession happened in 08.

Covid and the tariffs ended up being fairly minor blips, as far as the stock market was concerned. So many newbs have entered the markets recently, thanks to the popularity of Robinhood, because of DeepFuckingValue, whatever.

Sweet summer children who have no idea what true pandemonium is. They will learn, sooner or later.
 
I was too young to be actively investing during the dot com bubble, but I remember it and I've read a lot about it. I was in the market when the Great Recession happened in 08.

Covid and the tariffs ended up being fairly minor blips, as far as the stock market was concerned. So many newbs have entered the markets recently, thanks to the popularity of Robinhood, because of DeepFuckingValue, whatever.

Sweet summer children who have no idea what true pandemonium is. They will learn, sooner or later.
There will be a rektoning.
 
I was too young to be actively investing during the dot com bubble, but I remember it and I've read a lot about it. I was in the market when the Great Recession happened in 08.

Covid and the tariffs ended up being fairly minor blips, as far as the stock market was concerned. So many newbs have entered the markets recently, thanks to the popularity of Robinhood, because of DeepFuckingValue, whatever.

Sweet summer children who have no idea what true pandemonium is. They will learn, sooner or later.

None of us alive today know what real pandemonium looks like, 2008 was bad but you still didn't have every sector & asset class going tits up at the same time and there were only a handful of lock limit down days. The real fun will be when stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, land, and all other assets shit the bed at the same time while the limit down circuit breakers get a workout. Take the worst of the 1870s Long Depression and the 1930s Great Depression, put'em together and that's what we're setting ourselves up for. It's a truly once in a lifetime shit show.
 
None of us alive today know what real pandemonium looks like, 2008 was bad but you still didn't have every sector & asset class going tits up at the same time and there were only a handful of lock limit down days. The real fun will be when stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto, land, and all other assets shit the bed at the same time while the limit down circuit breakers get a workout. Take the worst of the 1870s Long Depression and the 1930s Great Depression, put'em together and that's what we're setting ourselves up for. It's a truly once in a lifetime shit show.
That’s why I’m making as much money as I can and going to flip it to cash
 
Insurance got hit bigly today...at least my stocks did. I added to CB at $266.21 and RLI at $59.21.

WRB is my one that is doing really well. I'm up ~40% + dividends on it, so I didn't add to that one.
 
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