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Economy Stocks thread v28: in loving memory of Rob Mafia and Brackis1

I wonder if something like Home Depot is gonna soar with all the billions that are gonna flood into rebuilding Los Angeles this year, maybe Caterpillar too or KB Homes
 
Pliny Pete said:
I wonder if something like Home Depot is gonna soar with all the billions that are gonna flood into rebuilding Los Angeles this year, maybe Caterpillar too or KB Homes
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As much damage as was done, keep in mind Home Depot is already a $400 billion company that does $150 billion+ in revenue annually. So even with all the work that needs to be done, it's not something that's going to move the needle all that much, and they're already trading pretty high right now. I was buying around $300 and below (iirc my average cost per-share is like $291 or something) months ago, but it's already up to $415 and trading in the high 20's x earnings, which is not cheap.
 
HOLA said:
As much damage as was done, keep in mind Home Depot is already a $400 billion company that does $150 billion+ in revenue annually. So even with all the work that needs to be done, it's not something that's going to move the needle all that much, and they're already trading pretty high right now. I was buying around $300 and below (iirc my average cost per-share is like $291 or something) months ago, but it's already up to $415 and trading in the high 20's x earnings, which is not cheap.
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Have you given any thought as to what stocks may boom from this massive rebuilding project?
 
Pliny Pete said:
Have you given any thought as to what stocks may boom from this massive rebuilding project?
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Construction equipment companies, like Caterpillar, should get a boost in revenues, and United Rentals too, of course.

Out of United Rental's 1,400+ equipment rental locations, 133 of them are actually in California. iirc about 50 are actually within 25 miles of L.A., so I'm sure they'll be getting lots of clients needing to rent their equipment.
 
BooM! SOC close to $30 now. I'm sitting on a ~25% gain already, since December 30th. An auspicious start to the new year:

 
NFLX with a great earnings pump

Fell off from from its $1020 peak but still up almost 100 points from yesterday’s close
 
UNP had good earnings yesterday and was up over 5%. It's up 10% so far this year, so hopefully it's repenting for what it did to me last year.

RLI released earnings yesterday. Was down 10% at one point as people are digesting how much the wildfires harmed them. They'll be OK. Added more at $70.34 (they just had a 2 for 1 stock split), which was near the lows yesterday.
 
Gentleman, fasten your seatbelts: NVDA is down 12% right now.

SeekingAlpha is actually letting me read this news blurb for some reason, so I'll copy it here:


Stock index futures tumbled Monday as concerns about the AI rally ramped up in the face of buzz about China AI startup DeepSeek, sparking a risk-off move.

Nasdaq futures (US100:IND) -4.3% tumbled. AI names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) were down more than 10%.

S&P futures (SPX) -2.3% and Dow futures (INDU) -1% were also lower.

"Market panics are common, and currently, it is understandable with American exceptionalism in full force," Manish Kabra, lead U.S. equities and multi-asset strategist at Societe Generale said. "The Mag-5s (NVDA + its top 4 customers, i.e. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) have contributed approximately 700 points to the S&P 500 over the last 2 years."

DeepSeek's R1 has outperformed models from established rivals like Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI, Meta (META) and Anthropic that have spent billions of dollars on scaling up their models. The Chinese startup's success has raised doubts over these massive AI investments.

"There are many questions about the ‘true cost’ of DeepSeek AI rollouts, their capabilities, and the wide acceptability of their products," Kabra said. "Arguably, the onus may be on the hyperscalers to justify their capex projections, but on a top-down basis, we see that if more companies create productive ways of using AI, hyperscalers should also benefit from this. If cost-efficient ways can be created, this has to be a net positive."
 
HOLA said:
Gentleman, fasten your seatbelts: NVDA is down 12% right now.

SeekingAlpha is actually letting me read this news blurb for some reason, so I'll copy it here:


Stock index futures tumbled Monday as concerns about the AI rally ramped up in the face of buzz about China AI startup DeepSeek, sparking a risk-off move.

Nasdaq futures (US100:IND) -4.3% tumbled. AI names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) were down more than 10%.

S&P futures (SPX) -2.3% and Dow futures (INDU) -1% were also lower.

"Market panics are common, and currently, it is understandable with American exceptionalism in full force," Manish Kabra, lead U.S. equities and multi-asset strategist at Societe Generale said. "The Mag-5s (NVDA + its top 4 customers, i.e. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) have contributed approximately 700 points to the S&P 500 over the last 2 years."

DeepSeek's R1 has outperformed models from established rivals like Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI, Meta (META) and Anthropic that have spent billions of dollars on scaling up their models. The Chinese startup's success has raised doubts over these massive AI investments.

"There are many questions about the ‘true cost’ of DeepSeek AI rollouts, their capabilities, and the wide acceptability of their products," Kabra said. "Arguably, the onus may be on the hyperscalers to justify their capex projections, but on a top-down basis, we see that if more companies create productive ways of using AI, hyperscalers should also benefit from this. If cost-efficient ways can be created, this has to be a net positive."
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You think this is an opportunity to buy the dip?
 
Pliny Pete said:
LoL, put all your faith into a cheap Chinese knockoff, see how that works out for ya
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No kidding. Reverse engineering trash at its finest. Why anyone in the US would use that is beyond me.
 
wlu.29 said:
You think this is an opportunity to buy the dip?
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Couldn't say with confidence. As much as NVDA is down today (16.6% as I type this) it's still up 91% over the last year. Today's drop looks far less severe when you keep that in mind.
 
HOLA said:
As much damage as was done, keep in mind Home Depot is already a $400 billion company that does $150 billion+ in revenue annually. So even with all the work that needs to be done, it's not something that's going to move the needle all that much, and they're already trading pretty high right now. I was buying around $300 and below (iirc my average cost per-share is like $291 or something) months ago, but it's already up to $415 and trading in the high 20's x earnings, which is not cheap.
Click to expand...
Pliny Pete said:
I wonder if something like Home Depot is gonna soar with all the billions that are gonna flood into rebuilding Los Angeles this year, maybe Caterpillar too or KB Homes
Click to expand...
I was thinking there might a REIT that could benefit from all this.
 
Pliny Pete said:
LoL, put all your faith into a cheap Chinese knockoff, see how that works out for ya
Click to expand...

Sound salty, rather than give credit, many will rather play down and be arrogant that someone could do AI better, faster, cheaper and with inferior hardware resources. However it's not hard to believe that just maybe AI was overhyped and billionaires were milking it for as much as they can right?
 
My IESC ( a large part of their business is building data centers) was absolutely eviscerated today. Down 24.57%.
 
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