Stock Portfolios V2

[MASShole]

Oct31st Kimberly Clark is spinning off the med unit. You get 1 share for every 8 you hold.

I own 24.xxx shares, so I'll get 3 of the new company. I wonder what the IPO amount of the new company will be, because I'm just going to sell it and reinvest in something else I own already (perhaps back into KMB)

 

[Mr Mojo Lane]

Oh, and also UGAZ (a natural gas times 3 ETF) has been stuck in a very predictable horizontal channel between the prices of $13.30 and $16.80. It has bounced predictably between those two prices (give or take 50 cents a share) for a couple of months now.

I've made two straight wins in the 10% range just by buying at $13.50 and selling around $15(with a stop loss at 12.99). But if I wasn't a scared trader, I'd wait for it to hit $16 for something more like a 20% gain. I also took an 8% profit by shorting it at the top this last go around, but I don't think I'll be doing that again. I'm bullish on natural gas going into the winter, and that average volume is snowballing up. It won't stay in this range for long.

I'm in 100 shares of UGAZ at $13.60, looking for another run to $16 and maybe a breakout on Thursday when that weekly report comes out. I'll add to it if shows a bottom reversal pattern on the 10 minute if it's under $14.

It might be a good time to buy energy stocks. Supply is heavy right now and probably will be for some time, but I do not see that lasting forever. Really, since the U.S. is starting to drill more--increasing supply, I think that oil prices will be down for awhile until some of these emerging markets start increasing demand.

 

[MASShole]

I own XOM, COP, CVX and BP for oil, and for a midstream I own KMI. I'm ok with the decline, as I can buy more shares, and DRIP my divs at lower prices. Energy will rebound, and these companies will find more ways to make money in the future.

 

[ElKarlo]

I own 24.xxx shares, so I'll get 3 of the new company. I wonder what the IPO amount of the new company will be, because I'm just going to sell it and reinvest in something else I own already (perhaps back into KMB)

Wow man. I only have 6 shares, so I'll prolly only get cash.

But spin offs usually outperform. Why not hold onto it for a year, and then sell it off? As you may get a solid year of beating the market. Well maybe

 

[MASShole]

Maybe. It is only 3 shares though.

 

[HOLA]

I will be purchasing some ADDYY, CBI, USG and BRK.B soon.

 

[MASShole]

Sold my PM today and reinvested the proceeds elsewhere (COP, BP, KO, T). Still have about $550 left to put elsewhere, but I'm waiting to see what goes on. Unsure if I should put it in anything below. The lowest dollar investments of those are T, VZ and WSM, followed by HCP. I am thinking that MCD or GE will get a lot of it.

GE
MCD
HCP
KMB
KMI
T
V
IBM
WSM
VZ

 

[Phelly2]

Has anyone read any good books on commodities? I tried finding some to study (while this stock market continues its downtrend) but I'm not seeing anything good.

Oh, and the S&P 500 is showing an upside down head and shoulders on the 10 minute chart confirming support. Volume has picked up on the upside neckline break too. A nice reversal pattern at previous support, but I'm still cautious about market direction.

MNST is looking OK after its cup-and-handle breakout. It's up 2.5% but that volume is way too low for it to be considered legit at this point. Maybe I'll feel better once it breaks the all time high.

 

[Phelly2]

Looks like the fed minutes got the marketed heated up, so I added to my MNST position on the all-time high breakout. Now that is what a breakout is supposed to look like. Feeling good about market direction at the moment. At least for the near term.

 

[Phelly2]

Gilead Sciences is looking strong. This weekly chart shows the 12% consolidation period they've been in for the last 6 weeks. Today, they blew up along with the market on what looks like a race to their all-time high.

On the bottom left, there, you can see that their quarterly earnings and sales are absolutely exploding.

Even with 78 funds taking profits, this stock only fell 12% during a relatively sharp market correction. That is a pretty solid launching platform for a new price move in my estimation.

The sector and industry are top performers as well.

If this breaks $110.64, I think I'm in.

The green area is where I'd take profits(15-20%), and the red area is where I'd take a loss(7-8%).
Click here if the chart's too small

 

[ElKarlo]

Maybe. It is only 3 shares though.

True. You could let it ride too, it may do really well. But at that size it may just not matter.

 

[AggieBoy]

Has anyone read any good books on commodities? I tried finding some to study (while this stock market continues its downtrend) but I'm not seeing anything good.

Oh, and the S&P 500 is showing an upside down head and shoulders on the 10 minute chart confirming support. Volume has picked up on the upside neckline break too. A nice reversal pattern at previous support, but I'm still cautious about market direction.

MNST is looking OK after its cup-and-handle breakout. It's up 2.5% but that volume is way too low for it to be considered legit at this point. Maybe I'll feel better once it breaks the all time high.

Head and shoulders and cup-and-handle have zero predictive power. You would be better off flipping a coin.

Commodities and Commodity Derivatives: Modelling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy by Helyette Geman I like quite a bit.

You can't really separate commodity trading though from the currency that the commodity is priced in. The past few months have all been moves on strong USD moves.

Things looked pretty good and clear on a dollar bull/bad for commodities but that has got much more murky today.

I'm dumped my vol trade nicely yesterday, no reason to be short silver and long USD now.

Just going to get risk on and long NQ and ES but defensively so.

Fed funds probability is such a mess
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds.html

 

[MASShole]

Sold all of my VEA today. I've come to realize that most of the companies I buy make a lot of their profits overseas, so I don't necessarily need an ETF focused on international holding only. I'll buy select companies overseas, like UL and GSK, but won't invest in an ETF for it from now on.

With the proceeds I bought 17 shares of APD, and 15 shares of MMM. I closed out my MMM position in my Roth and will add it to XOM most likely when my next deposit goes in. I have about $1k in cash in my Trad right now that I just plan on sitting on until something comes along, like a major dip in a current holding.

 

[bad seed]

Sold all of my VEA today. I've come to realize that most of the companies I buy make a lot of their profits overseas, so I don't necessarily need an ETF focused on international holding only. I'll buy select companies overseas, like UL and GSK, but won't invest in an ETF for it from now on.

VEA is one of the best bargains among Vanguards offerings right now and I've stopped DRIP of American holdings to buy more European and Japanese funds.

 

[SammyPops]

I will be purchasing some ADDYY, CBI, USG and BRK.B soon.

I've owned this for a while, and its like 80% over book.

my Canadian energy companies are still killing me. One is down 20% from book, but I cannot sell at this point.

 

[SammyPops]

VEA is one of the best bargains among Vanguards offerings right now and I've stopped DRIP of American holdings to buy more European and Japanese funds.

really?

it looks like the US market is poised to outperform these, no?

Japan scares me as an investor.

I own an AGF EU pooled fund for exposure over there but just a small amount.

 

[MASShole]

VEA is one of the best bargains among Vanguards offerings right now and I've stopped DRIP of American holdings to buy more European and Japanese funds.

Like I said, many of my American holdings do like 50% of their business overseas. That's a lot of international exposure via US multinationals.

 

[Brampton_Boy]

So, anybody else having their ass handed to them over the past month?

My energy portfolio is down 33%. In the past 5 days alone, it is down 15%. Either a great buying opportunity, or the oil and gas industry is imploding.

I can't turn my eyes away from the red tape.

 

[MASShole]

Great buying opportunity, IMO. I've added to BP, CVX, XOM and COP in the last day.

 

[HOLA]

I've owned this for a while, and its like 80% over book.

my Canadian energy companies are still killing me. One is down 20% from book, but I cannot sell at this point.

It's current price/book is 1.438.
And their book value is severely understated when compared to their intrinsic value. Take just Burlington and Geico....none of their increase in market value since their purchase is reflected in Berkshire's book value, and it's substantial. All that's changed is the amount of earnings retained in the business.