Stock Portfolios V2

[Mr Mojo Lane]

So, anybody else having their ass handed to them over the past month?

My energy portfolio is down 33%. In the past 5 days alone, it is down 15%. Either a great buying opportunity, or the oil and gas industry is imploding.

I can't turn my eyes away from the red tape.

Supply high, demand low

The U.S. is drilling more than ever and Libya is back to full production. Alternative energy is a very small factor in the equation, but it will become a bigger factor in the future.

 

[AggieBoy]

Day for the ages today, totally nuts after a huge up move the prior day. I have been trading for 10 years now and haven't seen something like that before.
Money jumping into copper, coffee and beans of all things. Beans up, wheat gets killed..coffee up, sugar killed.

 

[AggieBoy]

Supply high, demand low

The U.S. is drilling more than ever and Libya is back to full production. Alternative energy is a very small factor in the equation, but it will become a bigger factor in the future.

Or you could just say it has been a bull in USD the past month.

 

[ElKarlo]

Things are getting a bit crazy. Wonder if the general decline will continue? I see a lot of people simply cashing out now. Or going into super def stocks like PG. But then again 3m is WAY down today. Which is weird. Maybe people are shaving their winners here?


oh, Clorox company has been seen as a take over target for a while now. Wonder who is behind this one? I wonder if the Japanese are? Prolly not, but they are cash rich, and growth poor. Mizkan bought Ragu for $2.5B. And Mizkan is a sauce/vinegar company here. So, a larger player could easily pay the $12B.

 

[AggieBoy]

There is no reason to waste your time on individual stocks. It is so easy to be correct on the sector but pick the wrong horse, I don't think you should ever go lower than a sector ETF as a retail trader. You have no edge on guys who actually talk to management of a company, quite the opposite.
With commodities it is even more so, buying oil stocks instead of oil is just stupid. All you get is extra downside risk with no compensation for the risk on the upside vs the commodity itself.
Only trading equities is also stupid because when the shit hits the fan equities act like 1 stock that goes down.
You have to learn about trading volatility also because if you buy equities you are implicitly short volatility and probably don't even know it.

 

[MASShole]

There is no reason to waste your time on individual stocks. It is so easy to be correct on the sector but pick the wrong horse, I don't think you should ever go lower than a sector ETF as a retail trader. You have no edge on guys who actually talk to management of a company, quite the opposite.
With commodities it is even more so, buying oil stocks instead of oil is just stupid. All you get is extra downside risk with no compensation for the risk on the upside vs the commodity itself.
Only trading equities is also stupid because when the shit hits the fan equities act like 1 stock that goes down.
You have to learn about trading volatility also because if you buy equities you are implicitly short volatility and probably don't even know it.

Ok, thanks. I'll get right on that.

Or, I could find an ETF that somewhat matches my goals, look at their top 10 and buy their top 10 holdings and not worry about ETF fees from then on out.

VYM's top holdings: (company, symbol, percent of VYM)

Apple Inc. AAPL 7.16
Exxon Mobil Corporation Common XOM 4.95
Microsoft Corporation MSFT 3.94
Johnson & Johnson Common Stock JNJ 3.32
Wells Fargo & Company Common St WFC 3.13
General Electric Company Common GE 3.04
Chevron Corporation Common Stoc CVX 2.88
Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 2.64
JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common St JPM 2.61
Verizon Communications Inc. Com VZ 2.40

Those top take make up over 36% of that ETF, and I own 8 of the 10 (I'm staying away from banks). If I own those, why should I buy VYM and pay a fee each year, even if it is minimal?

And pushing commodities over the companies? Ok.

 

[MASShole]

Things are getting a bit crazy. Wonder if the general decline will continue? I see a lot of people simply cashing out now. Or going into super def stocks like PG. But then again 3m is WAY down today. Which is weird. Maybe people are shaving their winners here?


oh, Clorox company has been seen as a take over target for a while now. Wonder who is behind this one? I wonder if the Japanese are? Prolly not, but they are cash rich, and growth poor. Mizkan bought Ragu for $2.5B. And Mizkan is a sauce/vinegar company here. So, a larger player could easily pay the $12B.

MSFT was down nearly 4%. It had a great run up from earlier this year/late last year, so you may be right with people shaving their winners. Or it could be the CEO's dumb comments on women's pay.

 

[Brampton_Boy]

MSFT was down nearly 4%. It had a great run up from earlier this year/late last year, so you may be right with people shaving their winners. Or it could be the CEO's dumb comments on women's pay.

I would have guessed it was indirectly tied to the semiconductor sector getting slaughtered (because of Microchip CEO's comments about industry weakness).

Poor AMD lost like 20% of its value in 3 days - how they continue to compete boggles the mind. It truly is a David and Goliath situation with Intel (Intel pays more in quarterly dividends than AMD is worth as a company)

I am trying to turn a blind eye to the short term fluctuations right now. While I have lost more than 15k in the past 3 months (paper losses), I figure fundamentals haven't really changed that much. Over time, I imagine things will sort themselves out.

With that being said, your a braver man than I for picking up beaten stocks on the cheap. Despite some seemingly great bargains, I am a bit gun shy after these recent losses.

 

[MASShole]

I would have guessed it was indirectly tied to the semiconductor sector getting slaughtered (because of Microchip CEO's comments about industry weakness).

Poor AMD lost like 20% of its value in 3 days - how they continue to compete boggles the mind. It truly is a David and Goliath situation with Intel (Intel pays more in quarterly dividends than AMD is worth as a company)

I am trying to turn a blind eye to the short term fluctuations right now. While I have lost more than 15k in the past 3 months (paper losses), I figure fundamentals haven't really changed that much. Over time, I imagine things will sort themselves out.

With that being said, your a braver man than I for picking up beaten stocks on the cheap. Despite some seemingly great bargains, I am a bit gun shy after these recent losses.

My horizon is long term. While I have traded a few stocks here and there, I prefer to hold high quality stocks with solid fundamentals for a long period, and pick up more shares when things dip, and just allow DRIPs to accumulate tons of shares over the long term. This week I added to XOM, COP, CVX, BP, KO, MCD, T, WSM, and started full positions in MMM and APD with the proceeds from my VEA and PM sale. PM went to COP, BP, KO, WSM and T, so my yield didn't decrease as BP's is over 5% now, and so is T. VEA's sale went to APD, MMM and MCD and I have about $600 leftover to see what happens this upcoming week.

Right now, as I type this my total yield is 3.54%, and my weighted average div growth is over 10%. V, CHD, WSM, AAPL and MSFT are all growing their div at 15% or greater, which is helping a lot. Otherwise, I'd be comfortable with it around 8% annually.

You know what's fun? Seeing O's partial shares increase each month with the shares added from last month. Even those it's small right now, it's still pretty cool to see.

 

[ElKarlo]

Thing is, ETFs can be great, but you can get saddled with some duds as well, and they won't be removed til the fund gets rebalanced.

Also, many funds, such as the Japanese large caps, they are all Toyota heavy, and often Honda as well. I have enough exposure to autos as it is. I do not want any more. They also have too much exposure to banks. Which like Mass, I tend to avoid.

And as Mass said, you can pick the good stocks and avoid the fees.

I do have 3 EFTs, AFK for Africa, IDX for Indonesia, and VNM for Vietnam. Which are hard to get exposure to outside of Mutuals or ETFs

 

[ElKarlo]

MSFT was down nearly 4%. It had a great run up from earlier this year/late last year, so you may be right with people shaving their winners. Or it could be the CEO's dumb comments on women's pay.

Well, I think at this point, people are reacting to all the bad news being reported. Just look at semiconductors. Friggin TXN is down 7% on comments made by a small competitor. I think fear is brewing, and people are selling over any and all bad news. Look at Ford, they already said that this next year will be rough, due to mult reasons, and people are panicking. I don't mind, I just hate seeing so much red in my port

Wish I had some money on hand to make some purchases. Man oh man.

 

[MASShole]

I actually don't mind ETFs as long as it fits someone's goals. I started a Roth for my wife and we won't be maxing it out annually, so I'm using commission-free ETFs. I'm buying VYM and VBR, and sometimes VWO.

 

[ElKarlo]

I don't either. I own some ETFs myself. I disagree that they are a perfect replacement for stocks though.


Since oil is getting so cheap, it is going to have some positive consequences outside the energy sector. As any and all companies that transport their goods will be able to do so cheaper. This will prolly help balance out the coming slow down in profits due to the world's econ slowing down

 

[ElKarlo]

CSX was up as much as 12% yest, Canada Pacific wanted to purchase it, and was turned down. Interesting how M&A news makes everyone jump on to a stock.

 

[Brampton_Boy]

 

[ElKarlo]

Yeah, getting wrecked here too. I figured with the earnings reports coming out, that the sell off would have stopped. As bonds still are a crappy alt to stocks.

 

[JuliaB4GSP]

Yeah, getting wrecked here too. I figured with the earnings reports coming out, that the sell off would have stopped. As bonds still are a crappy alt to stocks.

Not losing 10-15% this winter by parking in paper might be a good strategy. I've been out of stocks since Feb. I missed plenty of upside but there's no more no-brainers like there have been year after year since the crisis. I even took my kids money out of the schwab broad market etfs. There's just no reason to lose 15, 20, 25% from any account when it seems pretty clear the world economy is slowing, the stock market is saying there are problems ahead. high vix means there is indecisiveness, no one sees clear investments and are ready to head to the exits.

 

[MASShole]

Sold GSK due to the middle east investigation and now the DOJ and perhaps the UK version of the DOJ may be investigating them for bribery and if it is in the corporate culture.

Added to O and JNJ from the proceeds.

Loss doesn't bother me that much. Sure, it sucks when you see MMM down 3+% and you think "why?" because nothing is wrong or has been reported, but my timeframe is long term and this is noise.

 

[AggieBoy]

Bought some SPY,QQQ and IWM.
I love buying on a good vix spike, can't resist.

 

[ElKarlo]

Julia maybe right but I suck at timing the market. Going to keep my chips in and let my dig %s go up and let my drips roll on. I'm 32 so weathering this is doable even if it is ugly.