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Excellent point. People lose money on investments, frauds, etc. If you invest intelligently it won't happen but NOTHING is safer than paying off debt on your primary residence, which you can always re-leverage if you want.
Lastly, we are talking about roughly 100K of lump sums over 4 years at 1,5%. Safe investments yield what, 4% in the US? He'll end up with 3K more of taxable income, which isn t worth the headache.
My vote is to go for the lump sums.
4% real on average, compared to 1% real for RE, but that's the hundred year average. Maybe we get a president who guts the stock market, or a local government becomes a sanctuary city and puts a halfway house next door to you, or the communists make you rent a room for free, or the stock market goes to zero, or maybe the stock market is flat for 30 years because it is so overvalued but anti-immigration laws makes new housing construction unaffordable so existing home owners outperform the stock market by 5© a year.
Who knows. The future could be anything.