International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V8

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Rod1 said:
Russia definitively knew they were not hitting them, they just had a lot of wishful thinking and can't back up now that due to how invested politically they are, its been clear for a while that Putin is aiming at the West being fickle and forgetting about Ukraine.
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Yes, Russia totally underestimated the West's ability to send advanced weapons to Ukraine. The only saving grace for Russians right now is that Putin is probably going to be couped or forced to resign. Putin and other senior leaders need to go for institutional rot to be fixed.



It wasn't a mistake, its simply that they CAN'T, Russian logistical issues were known by people even BEFORE the war, but the world was simply delluded into what the RAND experts were saying.

The whole American "amateurs talk strategy, experts talk logistics" proved to be true, while the Russian army had on paper the capability to defeat Ukraine fast, it simply lacked the logistical support to keep those advances going.

Look at this article from 2021 months before the war, they were already predicting that a "Russian Blitzkrieg" would be bogged down as it advanced due to logistical constraints.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/ They have absolutely shit.
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I agree that logistic constraints prevented the Russians from gaining more territory in the southern theater early in the war. I do not think that logistic issues caused their defeat in Kiev -- I think poor planning and operational coordination did. They've had plenty of supply in Mariupol and Donbas and their issue is related to overall lack of manpower/equipment in Kharkov. The article you posted seems to focus more on the Baltics and Russia operating outside of its rail system. The fighting is now essentially on the border with Russia and so they can use their rail system.


I include ACTIVE forces because those are the ones that can actually react to an invasion. Reserves need to be mobilized first.

Also i didn't count the paramilitary because i didn't count the DPR/LPR numbers either.
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Yes, and Ukraine mobilized them.



I already pointed out that its FAR easier to keep supplied artillery that is close to a supply dump, than trying to keep the needs of a forward fighting force way ahead of the supply dumps and whose needs are way more diversified.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

This was already predicted as i said, before the fight even began that Russian army logistical capabilities would be a bottleneck for the Russian army advance, that's why they moved from mechanized warfare to the whole mass artillery and level everything while we slowly crawl forward gaining territory, which worked until HIMARS entered the battlefiedld.

I mean you can deny it all you want but this is well known, the plan was for the VDV to take Hostomel airport via air lift and the Russian army would relieve it on the ground, but that never happened, the Russian army literally ran out of gas on the spearhead.
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The problem the Russians had was that their efforts were not coordinated. There was not a unified command or cohesive strategy. Hence why so many pieces of equipment were abandoned due to lack of fuel, repair, and other support. Blitzkrieg by clowns. The Russians can make a ton of shells or gas or whatever and ship it in via rail, but getting unit A on the same page as unit B is a major weak point. VDV was relieved, but the airport was not held, IIRC btw.
 
Dalarna3 said:
Yes, Russia totally underestimated the West's ability to send advanced weapons to Ukraine. The only saving grace for Russians right now is that Putin is probably going to be couped or forced to resign. Putin and other senior leaders need to go for institutional rot to be fixed.
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They understimated everything because they were betting on what the RAND experts said a quick blitzkrieg and a fait accompli.

Dalarna3 said:
The problem the Russians had was that their efforts were not coordinated. There was not a unified command or cohesive strategy. Hence why so many pieces of equipment were abandoned due to lack of fuel, repair, and other support. Blitzkrieg by clowns. The Russians can make a ton of shells or gas or whatever and ship it in via rail, but getting unit A on the same page as unit B is a major weak point. VDV was relieved, but the airport was not held, IIRC btw
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That's exactly what poor logistics means, the inability to bring what is needed to the people that need it, its more complicated than just ferrying cargo through train.

Dalarna3 said:
I agree that logistic constraints prevented the Russians from gaining more territory in the southern theater early in the war. I do not think that logistic issues caused their defeat in Kiev -- I think poor planning and operational coordination did. They've had plenty of supply in Mariupol and Donbas and their issue is related to overall lack of manpower/equipment in Kharkov. The article you posted seems to focus more on the Baltics and Russia operating outside of its rail system. The fighting is now essentially on the border with Russia and so they can use their rail system.
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They literally ran out of gas and you think it wasn't over poor logistics?

Dalarna3 said:
Yes, and Ukraine mobilized them.
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Yes, but it took several weeks to do so, im not saying Ukraine is outnumbered now, but surely was when the war broke out.
 
Siver! said:
I've just seen that @Strychnine shared it already, sorry, hadn't seen it!

But boy howdy, it's worth showing time and time again!

Tucker Carlson is an absolute pantomime character. Not necessarily a villain, more like a Widow Twanky.

If anyone in America watches Tucker for anything but the silliness, perhaps they should reconsider?
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Watch THIS. :)
Timestamped.



I wouldn't be surprised if some of these people speaking suffer mysterious "accidents" in the near future.

Edit: @Badr Hari beat me to it! :)
 
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Dalarna3 said:
It took the Nazis eight months to take Crimea. That's a long time in modern warfare. Also, while the HIMARS is a good system, it is not a wunderwaffe. Bridges are notoriously hard to destroy. If they do destroy the Kerch bridge and establish naval/missile superiority to where Russia's Black Sea Fleet can't do anything, then yes, the Russians will lose Crimea. Of course, in this scenario, Russia would be totally defeated anyway.
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ATACMS should be pretty good at taking down bridges. Much bigger payload.
 
Rod1 said:
They understimated everything because they were betting on what the RAND experts said a quick blitzkrieg and a fait accompli.
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I think they completely misjudged the will of Ukrainians to fight and the West to arm them. The attack on Kiev was a failed decapitation strike that Russia doubled down on before retreating. They were betting on assassinating Zelensky.



That's exactly what poor logistics means, the inability to bring what is needed to the people that need it, its more complicated than just ferrying cargo through train.



They literally ran out of gas and you think it wasn't over poor logistics?
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They had the material, they just lacked the command coordination to make it work. "We need to wait for the fuel trucks to catch up." "nyet, suka, I'm going to be the first one in Kiev." And then they ended up stranded. I blame command rather than the logistics guys in that situation.



Yes, but it took several weeks to do so, im not saying Ukraine is outnumbered now, but surely was when the war broke out.
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Russia's had numerical superiority is certain situations, such as the Donbas front in June, but Ukraine mobilized a ton of people very quickly. Also, again, there were paramilitary organizations that existed in permanent bunker mode, ready to go. Here's Azov training children before the war.
 
Dalarna3 said:
I think they completely misjudged the will of Ukrainians to fight and the West to arm them. The attack on Kiev was a failed decapitation strike and Russia doubled down on before retreating. They were betting on assassinating Zelensky.
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I agree with this

Dalarna3 said:
They had the material, they just lacked the command coordination to make it work. "We need to wait for the fuel trucks to catch up." "nyet, suka, I'm going to be the first one in Kiev." And then they ended up stranded. I blame command rather than the logistics guys in that situation.
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Again, logistics is more than just hauling things from point A to point B, the fact that tanks and trucks were not coordinated is exactly a failure of logistics.
 
Cid said:
ATACMS should be pretty good at taking down bridges. Much bigger payload.
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We might just see! The buzz online is that Russian troops are surrendering in large numbers, but it remains to be confirmed.


Rod1 said:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...all-so-quickly-Betrayal-looks-like-a-good-bet
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That's interesting. I had not heard of that before, but I think that's more of a "poor performance means that you're a traitor" thing that the Soviet Union was famous for.
 
Dalarna3 said:
That's interesting. I had not heard of that before, but I think that's more of a "poor performance means that you're a traitor" thing that the Soviet Union was famous for.
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The bridges that were supposed to be rigged were not rigged, the dam that was supposed to be blown wasn't.

Its not really that far-fetched considering the reports that Russia tried to bribe Ukrainian generals into surrender.
 
 
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