International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V8

[Ruthless Ryan]

Putin has gone full Hitler...maybe he should educate himself on how that turned out for Hitler/Germany...maybe even learn about the battle of Stalingrad which is smaller in scale but yet is essentially what is going to happen to Russia.

 

[Oedad]

The pentagon was estimating 80k casualties. Casualties doesn’t mean dead, it means dead or wounded. Of that they were estimating 15-20k dead. They might be wrong on the numbers, but they aren’t lying about them. That’s their best estimate.

Those numbers could be real given the scale and type of war that’s playing out. If it is true then yes Russia would have had to have significantly plussed up their numbers. I believe the estimate of the initial invasion was around 300k, and 80k taken out of action would not be sustainable.

Estimates of initial Russian combat strength are greatly exaggerated. Russian ground forces active duty total strength is only ~280k not including conscripts who have been prohibited from being deployed.

They deployed ~126 BTGs to start the invasion. If all of those groups were at 100% strength that is on average 126 x 800 = 100,800 frontline combat personnel. We know from observations on Russian unit strength around the North early in the war that actual battalion strength was closer to 600 men per BTG instead of the more typical 800, but lets say they had the 100,000 combat personnel add in support personnel in independent artillery and missile brigades total Russian manpower commited in the invasion was between 150-225k. ~210k is also inline with western esitmates Russia committed 75% of its professional ground forces to the invasion.

I believe if you took the casulty rate of the Russians in the first 3 weeks and extrapolated it out 6 months you would get something like 80k. 80,000/180 = 444 casulties per day which may have been true the first 7 days and still probably a couple hundred per day into the end of march, but the Russians have drastically altered their tactics and strategy since the withdrawl from the North. It would be almost impossible for them to be taking 400+ casulties per day with the scale of attacks they have been conducting and the advtantage in long-range fires they enjoy, i.e. Russia is not throwing that many troops at the Ukrainians anymore, and Ukraine is not shooting enough artillery rounds back to inflict that many loses.

 

[Oedad]

DOD isn't saying 80,000 dead. Not even Ukraine is saying that much.

80k casualties maybe.

DoD changes their estimates based on if they consulted the SBU before the press conference or not. US has said ~10-15k dead one day (which may actually be a reasonable estimate) and then repeated the ukrainian 80,000 "loses" the next. Its a word game meant to keep morale and support high amongst our Western partners. Ukraine isnt specifiying casualties because they want to imply that those 80k "losses" as irretrievable and not 10-20k dead and maybe 40-60k wounded half of whom will return to the theater in a short time.

Ukraine will often report loses as killed and later on enemy wounded as seperate numbers.

eg. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/18/7353209/ from june 18th ukrainian pravda reports russian loses as 32,350 killed with +200 killed per day. Currently they claim 45,000+ killed on their daily update, and if u look around you will find them claiming 100k more wounded. They will combine and adjust the numbers to claim anything from 45,000 to 145,000 loses depending on the release, intended audience, and the message they are trying to send.

Its a little bit semantics, a lot of propaganda, and I dont blame them for it I just recognize they have to exaggerate to keep up support.

400k professionals and I believe a million conscripts one active duty. It is high, but then again I guess that could be why they’ve effectively stalled out in their invasion

You're off here. The goal is 475,000 professional soldiers by 2025, and that is across the entire Russian Armed Forces. People are taking total Russian Armed Forces numbers and conflating them with Russian Ground Forces. Its closer to 280k-300k for Active duty Russian Ground Forces with 120-190k conscripts. The conscripts go into the reserves once rotated through and that is 2-3 million potential personnel. But Russia cannot access their conscripts and reserves because they are legally not in a state of war. Since the invasion they are trying to convince them to sign professional contracts or sign up in volunteer battalions with big bonuses and benefits (The so-called "Shadow Mobilization"), but most Russian manpower is unaccesible through traditional means.

 

[GhostZ06]

Holy shit poland is gonna be absolute monster

WASHINGTON — Dollars will start flowing toward Poland’s long-planned purchase of tanks, as the U.S. Army taps General Dynamics Land Systems to make 250 Abrams in the newest configuration, the company announced.

The $1.148 billion contract — awarded in late July, according to the Army — will get Poland new features in communications, firepower and armor for its future Abrams fleet, per an Aug. 25 company statement.

Initially requested by Poland a year ago, the first M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams are expected to reach the country’s military in early 2025, according a U.S. Army statement. Training for Polish soldiers began following the inauguration of an Abrams Tank Training Academy at Biedrusko Training Area, the Army announced earlier this month. The service made 28 Abrams tanks available to the country last month for that purpose.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/...ls-announces-11-billion-tank-deal-for-poland/


So theyll have modernized leopard 2s
K2 and abrams?!

 

[PEB]

 

[Strychnine]

We should've all pitched in $350. We could've had the S.S. Sherdog!

 

[Denter]

DoD changes their estimates based on if they consulted the SBU before the press conference or not. US has said ~10-15k dead one day (which may actually be a reasonable estimate) and then repeated the ukrainian 80,000 "loses" the next. Its a word game meant to keep morale and support high amongst our Western partners. Ukraine isnt specifiying casualties because they want to imply that those 80k "losses" as irretrievable and not 10-20k dead and maybe 40-60k wounded half of whom will return to the theater in a short time.

Ukraine will often report loses as killed and later on enemy wounded as seperate numbers.

eg. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/18/7353209/ from june 18th ukrainian pravda reports russian loses as 32,350 killed with +200 killed per day. Currently they claim 45,000+ killed on their daily update, and if u look around you will find them claiming 100k more wounded. They will combine and adjust the numbers to claim anything from 45,000 to 145,000 loses depending on the release, intended audience, and the message they are trying to send.

Its a little bit semantics, a lot of propaganda, and I dont blame them for it I just recognize they have to exaggerate to keep up support.



You're off here. The goal is 475,000 professional soldiers by 2025, and that is across the entire Russian Armed Forces. People are taking total Russian Armed Forces numbers and conflating them with Russian Ground Forces. Its closer to 280k-300k for Active duty Russian Ground Forces with 120-190k conscripts. The conscripts go into the reserves once rotated through and that is 2-3 million potential personnel. But Russia cannot access their conscripts and reserves because they are legally not in a state of war. Since the invasion they are trying to convince them to sign professional contracts or sign up in volunteer battalions with big bonuses and benefits (The so-called "Shadow Mobilization"), but most Russian manpower is unaccesible through traditional means.

US News estimates total casualties (dead and eroded wounded) at 'more than 45,000'.

 

[Blayt7hh]

Estimates of initial Russian combat strength are greatly exaggerated. Russian ground forces active duty total strength is only ~280k not including conscripts who have been prohibited from being deployed.

They deployed ~126 BTGs to start the invasion. If all of those groups were at 100% strength that is on average 126 x 800 = 100,800 frontline combat personnel. We know from observations on Russian unit strength around the North early in the war that actual battalion strength was closer to 600 men per BTG instead of the more typical 800, but lets say they had the 100,000 combat personnel add in support personnel in independent artillery and missile brigades total Russian manpower commited in the invasion was between 150-225k. ~210k is also inline with western esitmates Russia committed 75% of its professional ground forces to the invasion.

I believe if you took the casulty rate of the Russians in the first 3 weeks and extrapolated it out 6 months you would get something like 80k. 80,000/180 = 444 casulties per day which may have been true the first 7 days and still probably a couple hundred per day into the end of march, but the Russians have drastically altered their tactics and strategy since the withdrawl from the North. It would be almost impossible for them to be taking 400+ casulties per day with the scale of attacks they have been conducting and the advtantage in long-range fires they enjoy, i.e. Russia is not throwing that many troops at the Ukrainians anymore, and Ukraine is not shooting enough artillery rounds back to inflict that many loses.

I've seen that 280k number but I've also seen 400k. Also, its been flat-out confirmed that they have used conscripts even though they weren't supposed to. The second article I linked talks about that but it's been talked about in this thread. They have 900k professional servicemen across all forces.

https://www.forces.net/news/russia-vs-britain-how-do-militaries-stack
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61619638

 

[Blayt7hh]

DoD changes their estimates based on if they consulted the SBU before the press conference or not. US has said ~10-15k dead one day (which may actually be a reasonable estimate) and then repeated the ukrainian 80,000 "loses" the next. Its a word game meant to keep morale and support high amongst our Western partners. Ukraine isnt specifiying casualties because they want to imply that those 80k "losses" as irretrievable and not 10-20k dead and maybe 40-60k wounded half of whom will return to the theater in a short time.

I explained this to you already. The DOD is not playing a word game. They stated it clearly as 80k casualties of which 15-20k I believe they said were KIA. They never changed this to make the Ukrain happy or whatever you keep implying. You didn't understand the definitions.

 

[Ridgeback]

We should have taken the billions and billions of dollars we've been sending the Ukraine years now, defend against Russia, and we should've just paid it straight to Putin's account. Coulda prevented a lot of blood shed and American weapons now floating around a corrupt country.

I heard only 30% of the money so far has made it to the front lines and where it needs to be to help the fighting. What a fucking waste this whole shit show is...

 

[ferrisjso]

Putin has gone full Hitler...maybe he should educate himself on how that turned out for Hitler/Germany...maybe even learn about the battle of Stalingrad which is smaller in scale but yet is essentially what is going to happen to Russia.

Lol.

 

[ferrisjso]

@aries still nothing in the news but this is from a staunchly pro ukranian reporter which helps confirm what I was saying about Russia pushing in the area

This means the Russians have the initative in the only place where it was conceivable the Ukranians had it. Makes sense western media isn't rolling with this story because Ukraine taking Kherson is key to the narrative that "Ukraine has momentum".

A very serious cat is the most serious journo on this thread.

 

[AWilder]

We should have taken the billions and billions of dollars we've been sending the Ukraine years now, defend against Russia, and we should've just paid it straight to Putin's account. Coulda prevented a lot of blood shed and American weapons now floating around a corrupt country.

I heard only 30% of the money so far has made it to the front lines and where it needs to be to help the fighting. What a fucking waste this whole shit show is...

nice to see the 30% number still has traction.

 

[Zinger]

 

[Videer]

Holy shit poland is gonna be absolute monster


https://www.defensenews.com/global/...ls-announces-11-billion-tank-deal-for-poland/


So theyll have modernized leopard 2s
K2 and abrams?!

I cannot help but to think that this is somewhat of a interim solution and in the future bulk of their tanks will be whatever is conjured with the South Korean partnership.

We should have taken the billions and billions of dollars we've been sending the Ukraine years now, defend against Russia, and we should've just paid it straight to Putin's account. Coulda prevented a lot of blood shed and American weapons now floating around a corrupt country.

I heard only 30% of the money so far has made it to the front lines and where it needs to be to help the fighting. What a fucking waste this whole shit show is...

simply wrong.

 

[Anewt]

It's going to take years to get some of the weapon systems promised anyhow.

 

[Rholk]

We should have taken the billions and billions of dollars we've been sending the Ukraine years now, defend against Russia, and we should've just paid it straight to Putin's account. Coulda prevented a lot of blood shed and American weapons now floating around a corrupt country.

I heard only 30% of the money so far has made it to the front lines and where it needs to be to help the fighting. What a fucking waste this whole shit show is...

I heard only 30% of the oxygen so far has made it to your brain where it was needed to help the thinking. What a fucking waste this whole shit post is

 

[Rational Poster]

This means the Russians have the initative in the only place where it was conceivable the Ukranians had it. Makes sense western media isn't rolling with this story because Ukraine taking Kherson is key to the narrative that "Ukraine has momentum".

A very serious cat is the most serious journo on this thread.

You fell for fake news and so did he, and are running to the moon with it, read the rest of that twitter thread. Or rather, you are too dumb to interpret the news being provided and are writing your own narrative.

There are multiple areas referred to as Kherson-Blahodatne. There's at least 5 areas around just Kherson referred to as Blahodatne.

The very next tweet from the guy,

 

[SandisLL]

Most people don't understand that sheer quantity of vital war materials the US and UK provided the the USSR.

Over 1/3rd of all explosive materials came from the United States. More than half of their aviation fuel. More than half of their aluminum. 80% of all their copper. Tens of thousands of radios.

More than a 3rd of their vehicles were through lend lease. Tens of thousands of Katyusha rocket launchers used American trucks as a chassis. Over 2000 trains and exponentially more train cars were provided which without they simply would not have been able to move forces around their own country, let alone conduct any assaults. 30,000+ metal lathes and other factory equipment. Millions of tons of food and medical supplies. Fucking 15 million pairs of boots.

Without America and UK they would have been walking barefoot to Siberia before being exterminated. Instead they were able to march to Berlin with boots on their feet in American jeeps and train cars.

If there was no lend lease the Russians would have had to fight the Nazis with half the ammunition, half the aircraft, 1/3rd less vehicles and an 1800s logistics network.

Soviet Marshal Georgy Zhukov saying in a KGB recording of a private conversation 1963: "People say that the allies didn't help us. But it cannot be denied that the Americans sent us materiel without which we could not have formed our reserves or continued the war. The Americans provided vital explosives and gunpowder. And how much steel! Could we really have set up the production of our tanks without American steel? And now they are saying that we had plenty of everything on our own."

Russian historian Boris Sokolov

"In a hypothetical battle one-on-one between the U.S.S.R and Germany, without the help of Lend-Lease and without the diversion of significant forces of the Luftwaffe and the German Navy and the diversion of more than one-quarter of its land forces in the fight against Britain and the United States, Stalin could hardly have beaten Hitler.

It should be remembered that during World War I, the transportation crisis in Russia in 1916-17 that did a lot to facilitate the February Revolution [which lead to the abdication of the tsar] was caused by a shortage in the production of railway rails, engines, and freight cars because industrial production had been diverted to munitions. During World War II, only the supplies brought in by Lend-Lease prevented the paralysis of rail transport in the Soviet Union.

The Lend-Lease program also sent tons of factory equipment and machine tools to the Soviet Union, including more than 38,000 lathes and other metal-working tools. Such machines were of higher quality than analogues produced in the Soviet Union, which made a significant contribution to boosting Soviet industrial production.

In order to really assess the significance of Lend-Lease for the Soviet victory, you only have to imagine how the Soviet Union would have had to fight if there had been no Lend-Lease aid. Without Lend-Lease, the Red Army would not have had about one-third of its ammunition, half of its aircraft, or half of its tanks. In addition, there would have been constant shortages of transportation and fuel. The railroads would have periodically come to a halt. And Soviet forces would have been much more poorly coordinated with a constant lack of radio equipment. And they would have been perpetually hungry without American canned meat and fats."

Like this.
BTW lend lease ukr is getting ....is nothing if compare what Stalin had get.
A bit more than 400 000 cars !
From countries Stalin in 1949 th started to bully with nukes....
It is real Kremlin and it always will be the same.
It is like you gave someone xxx gifts and in reward are getting slap in the face and will be accused as enemy and even new history version will be ordered in order to confirm for inhabitants that....you are enemy and so on...

 

[ferrisjso]

You fell for fake news and so did he, and are running to the moon with it, read the rest of that twitter thread. Or rather, you are too dumb to interpret the news being provided and are writing your own narrative.

There are multiple areas referred to as Kherson-Blahodatne. There's at least 5 areas around just Kherson referred to as Blahodatne.

The very next tweet from the guy,

Okay fair.