My personal thoughts updated.
I think I've been mostly right about the war in that, after the slow start, I recall my brother asking me about the then-oft-quoted stat that Russia was a week from exhausting its PGMs. He insisted that it mattered. I was very dismissive at the time saying that Russia had significant storages of dumb bombs and that Russia would be able to fire its way into the East.
Then, I and many others figured that at some point probably before accomplishing the stated objectives, that the Russian advance would stall out.
Now I'm concerned again for another shift. I hope I'm wrong but I think a lot of western countries are running out of expendable 155. European morale is flagging in general I think. Russia still does have a manpower problem. But in the long run I think war usually favors the side with more industrial capacity. That is not Ukraine. I'm concerned for the upcoming winter. I don't want to make predictions. But I am worried.