Russia/Ukraine Megathread V5

[A Lurker]

With the amount of garbage thrown at him, he should get a pass for much worse. But at least this whole debate is keeping the thread alive. It always gets like this when there's no big news coming.

Well I hope the next big news is peace.

 

[mkess101]

How many assets has he used to take Kiev? Next to none. The plan seems to be (idk if you saw that Newseek article I posted a few pages back), to encircle Kiev and slowly squeeze to push forward negotiations.
They're not remotely at the breaking point btw.

This is what's driving me crazy (not you), but whenever you ask why he wants Kiev, people respond with the same narrative that is proven to be more and more false by the day. He doesn't want to topple Ukraine's government, he hasn't asked for anything of the Western region and he hasn't indicated he wants Zelensky to relieve his duty. Installing a pro-Russia regime would be a nightmare. It would be 2014 x 100. That makes zero sense. He clearly wants to encircle Kiev, clamp down, and force a written concession of Crimea and some of the east, as well as making Zelensky go back on his campaign manifesto, which would make Zelensky look horrible to his voting base (in Putin's eyes)

Well he's definitely used assets. I guess it could be his strategy to cut off the cities from the outside until they cave for "negotiations". IDk how valid "negotiating" is when it's at the end of a gun (ie citizens dying because of lack of access to water, food, medicine, etc) but that's also my view and I'm sure Vlad sees it differently LOL.

I have to think by now Putin realizes (I mean...he's not stupid so if he doesn't realize it that's because his hubris is so off the charts it blinds him to everything) that Zelenskiy's voting base is no way going to abandon him now. Even if he caves, they will canonize him and support him as "making the extremely difficult decision to cede xxxx in order to save Ukrainian lives and the nation's sovereignty". Putin HAS to know that any plans he has to keep Zalenskiy in power but to undermine that power within the Ukraine are dead. That was quite a miscalculation on his part if he thought that was going to happen, but I gotta think he's adjusted his thinking now.

 

[Anewt]

It’s been nearly a month and what have they achieved?

https://www.news.com.au/world/russi...e/news-story/285f2f6a09a110892171d16fef20f672

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed a “compromise” that could end the war with Russia, which has now been dragging on for almost a month.

Speaking to his nation’s public broadcaster Suspilne today, Mr Zelensky suggested Ukraine could live with not seeking NATO membership.

“NATO should either say now that they are accepting us, or openly say they are not accepting us because they are afraid of Russia. Which is true,” he argued.

And then we need to calm down and say OK, there are NATO member countries that can provide us security guarantees without a membership in NATO.

“That is where the compromise exists. That’s where the end of the war is.”

Mr Zelensky also drew a couple of red lines, however, saying Ukraine could not accept handing over any of its cities, and would not sign any peace agreement that includes the word “de-Nazification”.

“We cannot accept an ultimatum from Russia. How can we, after our people were killed?” Mr Zelensky said.

“It is impossible. Simply impossible ... let’s say they demand to get Kharkiv, or Mariupol, or Kyiv. People in these cities won’t let them do it. The only way they can seize the cities is to kill everyone, and take the empty city.

“There can't be any ‘de-Nazification’ in the agreement. When a country that is treading in the footsteps of the Nazis is accusing us of being Nazis, we can’t accept that.”

The Ukrainian government has said more than 8000 people were evacuated from conflict zones on Monday alone as the war enters its 27th day.

Of that number, 3,000 fled from the besieged city of Mariupol as Russian troops continue to close in.


By the sounds of that... no NATO, neutral Ukraine. Crimea and Donbas.

It's why Zelensky is arguing the semantics in my opinion.. no denazification ( the vaguest goal ) odd he's so against it. But I digress.

No cities... ( wasn't a Putin goal ) no mention of donbas / Crimea seems like he knows they're gone.

So a month in . Neutral Ukraine. No NATO. Crimea Russian and donbas being independent will be agreed to imo

 

[Anewt]

The people storming the Capitol didn't make it a coup. It was all the national and state elected officials that plotted to have the election overturned that made it a soft coup. You can call the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys factions rebels but it remains to be seen just how deep their involvement in the planning of the coup was.

Lol wtf. just how deep their involvement in the planning of the coup was

So Jan 6 was a attempted coup to you and what happened in Ukraine wasn't? Lol jesus christ

 

[Da Speeit]

Im warming on you, you have a rather odd view on all this IMHO, but you have made me laugh a few times. In this day and age that’s a positive.

I know its not a popular view and a hard one to let shine through especially when its contrary to most popular media, but i think a lot of people overlook just how badly we were lied to on every level about Syria, and at times I see and read things so similar to that jarring disassociation i felt in 16/17 and i get pretty fucking triggered and go over the top, so it seems like im callous to one side or sympathetic to another.

i basically think there’s an elite class in politics and intel with competing interests who rely on these events to let everyday people and soldiers die so that they can consolidate gains and seize a little more power.

that goes for Biden, NATO, Putin, Xi, the DIA, Ukraine’s inner state, the Kremlin, everyone and i think they demonstrably will let Ukrainian and Russian soldiers die with no question so that they can preach “a message of peace” from their graves. I put so much responsibility on NATO bc I expect them to be the adults in the room when dealing with thugs like Putin, but so often I see them make petty, short-sighted decisions that engulf all parties in a lose/lose situation, which I think benefits Putin more than anyone.

just my POV. I get that it may he wrong but i don’t like having an opinion if i’m not going to voice it and i encourage everyone else to do the same, being as most of us are lucky to live the lives we do.

anyway, glad to make you chuckle you fucking jerk

 

[jimbob27]

I don’t believe that at all, sorry. Not every vehicle is manned, many are stuck, abandoned and demolished. When we start getting into the tens of thousands, you’re looking at massive numbers groundfighting and close quarters combat. There has been a minimal amount of that thus far.

not buying that number. Just reeks

That number is just for destroyed - it's 1706 including abandoned and captured.

There hasn't been evidence of massive ground fighting, but there is tons of pics of whole lines of vehicles being utterly trashed. It's a strange war based on Putins delusion they'd crumble quickly. Which meant they pushed waaaay waaaay to far into hostile territory without really securing anything, so their assets are getting ambushed left right and centre in territory that they've supposedly taken, when in reality all they've taken is the main roads.

 

[mkess101]

My guess, assuming they dont want it, would be to split Ukrainian forces by forcing them to defend of the capital as well as the east

Possible I guess. That guy seemed to disagree on the basis that the Ukrainians would have had no chance at all in the east if Russia had simply focused on that alone, but again I'm just reiterating what one other guy said and I'm not knowledgeable enough to agree or disagree with it.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

https://www.news.com.au/world/russi...e/news-story/285f2f6a09a110892171d16fef20f672

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed a “compromise” that could end the war with Russia, which has now been dragging on for almost a month.

Speaking to his nation’s public broadcaster Suspilne today, Mr Zelensky suggested Ukraine could live with not seeking NATO membership.

“NATO should either say now that they are accepting us, or openly say they are not accepting us because they are afraid of Russia. Which is true,” he argued.

And then we need to calm down and say OK, there are NATO member countries that can provide us security guarantees without a membership in NATO.

“That is where the compromise exists. That’s where the end of the war is.”

Mr Zelensky also drew a couple of red lines, however, saying Ukraine could not accept handing over any of its cities, and would not sign any peace agreement that includes the word “de-Nazification”.

“We cannot accept an ultimatum from Russia. How can we, after our people were killed?” Mr Zelensky said.

“It is impossible. Simply impossible ... let’s say they demand to get Kharkiv, or Mariupol, or Kyiv. People in these cities won’t let them do it. The only way they can seize the cities is to kill everyone, and take the empty city.

“There can't be any ‘de-Nazification’ in the agreement. When a country that is treading in the footsteps of the Nazis is accusing us of being Nazis, we can’t accept that.”

The Ukrainian government has said more than 8000 people were evacuated from conflict zones on Monday alone as the war enters its 27th day.

Of that number, 3,000 fled from the besieged city of Mariupol as Russian troops continue to close in.


By the sounds of that... no NATO, neutral Ukraine. Crimea and Donbas.

It's why Zelensky is arguing the semantics in my opinion.. no denazification ( the vaguest goal ) odd he's so against it. But I digress.

No cities... ( wasn't a Putin goal ) no mention of donbas / Crimea seems like he knows they're gone.

So a month in . Neutral Ukraine. No NATO. Crimea Russian and donbas being independent will be agreed to imo

Agreed with your interpretation except that clearly the Donbas has cities in it that Zelensky won't hand over to Russia.

Those cities include Donetsk and Luhansk.

Based on this short statement, I wouldn't say he would agree to the independence of those regions either.

 

[A Very Serious Cat]

Possible I guess. That guy seemed to disagree on the basis that the Ukrainians would have had no chance at all in the east if Russia had simply focused on that alone, but again I'm just reiterating what one other guy said and I'm not knowledgeable enough to agree or disagree with it.

I'm expert either but I think if you outnumber your enemy it's better to spread them thin where you can use your superior numbers to break through more easily. Before anyone overreacts I'm not claiming this is what's happening just a possibility

 

[Captain Herb]

So what if they don't want the capital?
Why would they? What reasoning for taking the capital would Putin have?

Seriously? Hope it's a joke that I don't get

 

[Anewt]

Agreed with your interpretation except that clearly the Donbas has cities in it that Zelensky won't hand over to Russia.

Those cities include Donetsk and Luhansk.

Based on this short statement, I wouldn't say he would agree to the independence of those regions either.

The military line was already further west than those cities for years. I think that's the reason he didn't mention that region at all, as I said i think he's going to come out as a " winner " like everyone bar regular people. But you could be right.

https://images.app.goo.gl/MjzbnpfwFnrXeytf9

 

[Da Speeit]

Seriously? Hope it's a joke that I don't get

It makes sense if your narrative is that Putin wants to overwhelm Ukraine and slaughter tens of thousands of people and occupy a major city that will require killing tens of thousands more people and defending on 3 fronts.

So why would he take Kiev? He totally could have weeks ago.

 

[mkess101]

I'm expert either but I think if you outnumber your enemy it's better to spread them thin where you can use your superior numbers to break through more easily. Before anyone overreacts I'm not claiming this is what's happening just a possibility

I think it's also possible that it's what @Da Speeit said: Putin doesn't think he can get the leverage to force the Ukraine to officially go on record as withdrawing their attempt to get into NATO and be "neutral" by just taking the east. He has to bring the capital to its knees in order to "negotiate" with them on the other stuff. Which isn't negotiating of course, but the point remains that may be how Vlad sees it.

 

[MichiganMMA1978]

I did. Especially after watching his Jan 6 take and Kyle Rottenhouse specials (talk about spins and one sided reporting). But if the guy with the highest viewership in the nation is spewing lies why aren’t there any defamation suits?

He's been to court. It was ruled he's basically nothing more than entertainer and his words shouldn't be taken as truth, as per his defense in court lol

 

[Captain Herb]

It makes sense if your narrative is that Putin wants to overwhelm Ukraine and slaughter tens of thousands of people and occupy a major city that will require killing tens of thousands more people and defending on 3 fronts.

So why would he take Kiev? He totally could have weeks ago.

There's so many problems with that idea, I'm not sure where to start but I'll just say that as long as Kyiv stands, so does the Ukrainian government. That should be obvious.

 

[mkess101]

It makes sense if your narrative is that Putin wants to overwhelm Ukraine and slaughter tens of thousands of people and occupy a major city that will require killing tens of thousands more people and defending on 3 fronts.

So why would he take Kiev? He totally could have weeks ago.

When you say he could have weeks ago, how do you mean "take" it? Like, send all his troops in to go door to door in a city the size of Chicago and clear every room? Every building? Or do you mean just fire rockets in and lay waste to it with no regard for what's left after? Or some alternative to those two things that I'm not thinking of when I think of "taking" a city?

 

[ViD]

Haven’t posted here in a long time.

Still can’t believe this thing has happened the way it happened.

I certainly don’t agree with the way Putin decided to handle it, it could’ve been done much easier and even without a military conflict.

Zelensky is an absolute clown and his ratings were in the toilet. Why not orchestrate another Maidan and get a pro Russian president installed?

Unless of course, Putin has much different goals in mind such as changing the world order by creating a bipolar world system with the West and China / Russia being on opposite sides. Ukraine is an unfortunate battleground in this case.

Now, Putin has no choice but to win and win big. Negotiations which would result in Russia pulling the forces back right now would be an ultimate defeat as regardless of what Ukraine signs now, nothing will stop them from reversing their decisions while NATO gets stronger in the east and will pump more weapons into Ukraine.

At this point, the best case scenario for Russia is taking the entire east of Ukraine, encircling Kiev, getting Zelensky to sign whatever he needs to sign and then leaving Russian forces in Ukraine for the foreseeable future to ensure they don’t back on their signatures.

 

[Da Speeit]

There's so many problems with that idea, I'm not sure where to start but I'll just say that as long as Kyiv stands, so does the Ukrainian government. That should be obvious.

And you’re 100% sure he wants to overthrow the government?

 

[The Elemental O]

 

[PEB]

Putin spokesman downplayed the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine war. The spokesman said it would only be used in an extraordinary case that Russia very existence is in danger. It seems like everyone coming a little towards their senses. It also sounds like they are looking for a trade off getting something back to stop combat