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Which Future for Ukraine? • Stimson Center
Outlining four scenarios for what comes next as the critical minerals deal with the United States crumbles.
www.stimson.org
The future of Ukraine is complex and multifaceted, marked by ongoing conflict and challenges, but also with signs of resilience and potential for growth. While the war with Russia has severely damaged Ukraine's infrastructure and economy, there are indications that the country is making progress in some areas, including economic recovery and technological advancement. However, significant challenges remain, including the ongoing war, the need for substantial investment in rebuilding, and the threat of continued Russian aggression.
The war has caused significant economic damage, with the World Bank estimating Ukraine will need at least $524 billion over the next decade to repair and rebuild.
Ukraine faces a difficult future with significant challenges related to the ongoing war, economic recovery, and political stability. However, there are also signs of resilience, economic growth, and technological advancement. The future of Ukraine will depend on a combination of factors, including the outcome of the war, the level of international support, and the ability of Ukrainians to rebuild and adapt to the new reality.
With Russia intensifying its attacks, a total collapse of the front lines is only a question of time and high-ranking (Ukranian) military officers start drafting contingency plans behind closed doors. Their whispered strategy centers on the belief that Zelenskyy’s continuation in power will ultimately doom Ukraine to further humiliation or, worse, open the door to a collapse of the state itself. As powerful oligarchs are conceiving of a plan to oust Zelensky and replace him with a Russia-friendly leader, the military signals not to interfere with a coup attempt.
Dismayed by the abrupt rift with Washington and Europe’s inability to step up, the war of attrition continues. However, before too long, Zelenskyy finds a surprising new mediator for Ukraine’s future: China. As the Kremlin grows bolder and the United States hints at stepping away from the conflict altogether, Beijing steps in, offering itself as a more neutral arbiter, capable of reigning in both Moscow and Kyiv. Although Zelenskyy initially hesitates to trust a power with its own global ambitions, he cannot ignore the prospect of a negotiation table that at least promises to halt the escalating crisis. For Beijing, brokering an accord in Europe is a golden opportunity to project itself as a responsible stakeholder – and to advance its own strategic and economic interests across the region at a time when transatlantic unity is no more.
