International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[b-hop]

The safety and security of all of Europe is completely in our interest. Ukraine is absolutely an asset to us, they literally separate Russia from the rest of Europe. They guard the flank of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania who are already NATO allies.

Do you not see what is going on? Russia is willing to invest hundreds of thousands if not millions of men for this. This is not a drill, this is not just for funsies. They are rolling the fucking dice here and they have been overt with their intentions.

The same ones who refused to listen to Trump about not giving leverage to Russia with their energy contracts. Russia is indeed a security threat to Europe but never was to US directly.

At most we actually gain a lot of leverage aswell in Europe with arms exports and political leverage if Europe continues dependent of us for security, so in a way the conflit isn't bad for us by that calculus, would be a matter of thiking about arms exportation rentability x helping Ukraine.

Even so speding our money helping Ukraine when we don't get any benefit doesn't make sense. And needs to be like Trump also said, the European to pay their burden and defense budget for their own security.

 

[Natural Order]

Trump has no secret plan to end the war. You can't repeal and replace this with nothing like Obamacare. Both sides are very far from anything that resembles peace terms.

The weapons will flow, one way or another.

I'm thinking he'll tend to more pressing Trump matters for the first 5-6 months (ie retribution and reversals) and then attempt a peace plan before the end of 2025. Whether or not successful is a different matter.

 

[Rational Poster]

The same ones who refused to listen to Trump about not giving leverage to Russia with their energy contracts. Russia is indeed a security threat to Europe but never was to US directly.

At most we actually gain a lot of leverage aswell in Europe with arms exports and political leverage if Europe continues dependent of us for security, so in a way the conflit isn't bad for us by that calculus, would be a matter of thiking about arms exportation rentability x helping Ukraine.

Even so speding our money helping Ukraine when we don't get any benefit doesn't make sense. And needs to be like Trump also said, the European to pay their burden and defense budget for their own security.

The Europeans have already contributed more to the war than we have. Plus they are housing millions of Ukrainian refugees.

You're just wrong here. EU is one of our largest training partners and our most valuable intelligence partner. Americans live there. Americans work there.

This is just ridiculous to say we have no stake in the security of Europe and we don't benefit from preventing Russia's hostile take over.

We are a global trading empire. Why do you want to give up our hegemony? This is such anti-American bullshit.

 

[ViD]

That talking point is so inane.

If the CIA orchestrated shit, why are the Russians fighting Ukrainians?

What a waste of time, lives and money.

The enemy is clearly the CIA or some other boogeyman in that comfort blankey of a scenario.

It doesn't even make sense to claim that's the reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russians are not fighting Ukrainians as people, they’re fighting the Ukrainian Nationalists that got into power and brainwashed the rest by banning anything Russian.

The Russians are fighting a clown who won the elections as he made himself look like the guy that will normalize things, end the Anti Russian hysteria and bring peace and prosperity. Instead, he kept zero promises and kept doing what Poroshenko was doing.

 

[Jon!]

Russians are not fighting Ukrainians as people, they’re fighting the Ukrainian Nationalists that got into power and brainwashed the rest by banning anything Russian.

The Russians are fighting a clown who won the elections as he made himself look like the guy that will normalize things, end the Anti Russian hysteria and bring peace and prosperity. Instead, he kept zero promises and kept doing what Poroshenko was doing.

Ukrainians are fighting a clown who has destroyed democracy and has overwritten all the rules in Russia just so he can sit on his throne for longer than he was ever allowed.

It's always utterly pathetic when anyone tries to attack Ukraine from a pro-Russian stance lol

 

[b-hop]

The Europeans have already contributed more to the war than we have. Plus they are housing millions of Ukrainian refugees.

You're just wrong here. EU is one of our largest training partners and our most valuable intelligence partner. Americans live there. Americans work there.

This is just ridiculous to say we have no stake in the security of Europe and we don't benefit from preventing Russia's hostile take over.

We are a global trading empire. Why do you want to give up our hegemony? This is such anti-American bullshit.

They've to contributing way more, many of them don't even pay their fare share of GDP as Trump so well put it, it's there continent anyway and relax aslong the sea trades routes are in our hands and our Navy vastly surpasses all the other ones, the trade is going to be securised everywhere including to the Russia society that shouldn't be alienated also .

As far as trade you seem a bit ignorant considering the EU exports way more to the US than other way around, so we actually have an deficit, is not liking we're protecting a valuable client, but a valuable seller, that could be an american in other way around.

I want to us to have economical hegemony foremost.

 

[Rational Poster]

I'm thinking he'll tend to more pressing Trump matters for the first 5-6 months (ie retribution and reversals) and then attempt a peace plan before the end of 2025. Whether or not successful is a different matter.

Peace can't happen unless Russia changes their demands by a lot, or actually captures territory they claim as their own. Ukraine doesn't need us to hold what they have, they need us to take the fight to Russia. They can hold for years with just what they receive from the EU.

Ukraine still controls more of Kursk than Russia has captured of the oblasts they've claimed in 2 years.. The current pace it will take Russia like 500 years to get to Lviv.

 

[Rational Poster]

They've to contributing way more, many of them don't even pay their fare share of GDP as Trump so well put it, it's there continent anyway and relax aslong the sea trades routes are in our hands and our Navy vastly surpasses all the other ones, the trade is going to be securised everywhere including to the Russia society that shouldn't be alienated also .

As far as trade you seem a bit ignorant considering the EU exports way more to the US than other way around, so we actually have an deficit, is not liking we're protecting a valuable client, but a valuable seller, that could be an american in other way around.

I want to us to have economical hegemony foremost.

This is an old talking point, every NATO country that matters is paying their fair share now and were already on track to prior to Trump even taking office.

Poland is about to have one of the best militaries in the world with the partnership they've formed with South Korea.

You can't educate me about anything, especially trade. We already have an economic hegemony and you are suggesting we just abandon it because standing up to Russia's bully tactics is hard and hurts your feelings.

 

[ViD]

Ukrainians are fighting a clown who has destroyed democracy and has overwritten all the rules in Russia just so he can sit on his throne for longer than he was ever allowed.

It's always utterly pathetic when anyone tries to attack Ukraine from a pro-Russian stance lol

Putin is legitimately supported by 70% of the population whether you like it or not. The elections this year confirmed it.

Zelensky is not even a legitimate president anymore as his term ended and Ukrainian constitution states the speaker of Rada should take over during martial law time

 

[Jon!]

Putin is legitimately supported by 70% of the population whether you like it or not. The elections this year confirmed it.

Zelensky is not even a legitimate president anymore as his term ended and Ukrainian constitution states the speaker of Rada should take over during martial law time

Ah yeah, that's cool.

"Popular" politicians should always be allowed to rewrite the country's constitution whenever and wherever they like.

Fun story.

 

[Rational Poster]

Putin is legitimately supported by 70% of the population whether you like it or not. The elections this year confirmed it.

Zelensky is not even a legitimate president anymore as his term ended and Ukrainian constitution states the speaker of Rada should take over during martial law time

All those business execs legitimately falling out of windows too?

 

[ViD]

All those business execs legitimately falling out of windows too?

That’s such an overused stereotype it’s gotten boring

 

[Jon!]

All those business execs legitimately falling out of windows too?

It's sad, but American sanctions mean that Russian glass is no longer as stable as it once was.

 

[b-hop]

This is an old talking point, every NATO country that matters is paying their fair share now and were already on track to prior to Trump even taking office.

Poland is about to have one of the best militaries in the world with the partnership they've formed with South Korea.

You can't educate me about anything, especially trade. We already have an economic hegemony and you are suggesting we just abandon it because standing up to Russia's bully tactics is hard and hurts your feelings.

Yes i can see your point of views, and i even said that the continuation of the war have their benefits because it weakens an rival like Russia while maintaining Europe very depending of our arms industry and geopolitical leverage.

I only criticize the amount of money being being thrown to Ukraine, we need to reduce it while giving them enough to fight.This and conversations about escalation of the war that is total avoidable.

 

[Rational Poster]

Yes i can see your point of views, and i even said that the continuation of the war have their benefits because it weakens an rival like Russia while maintaining Europe very depending of our arms industry and geopolitical leverage.

I only criticize the amount of money being being thrown to Ukraine, we need to reduce it while giving them enough to fight.This and conversations about escalation of the war that is total avoidable.

We haven't been throwing money, we've been throwing weapons. Weapons already bought and paid, purpose built to kill Russians, collecting dust in warehouse since before you were born.

Russia is esclating whether we like it or not, they're dragging more of their allies into the war. They're activating their proxies all over the Middle East and Africa. Israel just captured a divisions worth supply of Russian anti-tank missiles from Hezbollah. They're conducting sabotage all across Europe.

They were literally sending bomb threats to America during the election to disrupt our election. Stop being so naive about what's going on here.

 

[Rational Poster]

That’s such an overused stereotype it’s gotten boring

I just tried to paste all the killed Russian executives and members of the press since the start of the war and I got a warning because the character limit was over 15000 characters.

So here is just this year

2024​

Name	Age at death	Position	Date of death	Count of deaths	Place body was discovered	Circumstances
January
February
March
May
June
July
October
Zoya Konovalova	48	Editor-in-chief of the State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company Kuban	5 January 2024	2	Krasnodar Krai	Died alongside her ex-husband in a suspected poisoning incident.[97]
Ivan Sechin	35	Employee of Rosneft. Son and heir apparent of Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin	5 February 2024	1	Moscow	Complained of kidney pain at his home mansion overnight and died within hours after ambulances failed to arrive in time, due to the security service providing the wrong address. Cause of death officially diagnosed as a blood clot. His father, Igor Sechin, blamed the Rosneft security service. The Daily Beast called it "bizarre circumstances".[98]
Andrey Morozov	44	Military blogger and war correspondent, former military combatant	21 February 2024	1		After posting about Russian casualties in the Battle of Avdiivka to his Telegram channel, Morozov deleted the post, claiming to be under orders by military command. The next day, he posted a suicide note blaming Vladimir Solovyov and killed himself by firearm.[99]
Vitaly Robertus	53	Vice president of Lukoil	13 March 2024	1	Moscow	Reportedly committed suicide. He was found hanged in his Moscow office on 13 March 2024.[100][101][102]
Aleksandr Surikov	68	Ambassador to Mozambique	11 May 2024	1	Maputo	Found dead at his home. Russian authorities denied a request for an autopsy from Maputo Central Hospital. An unsubstantiated report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs via TASS listed the preliminary cause of death as a stroke.[103][104]
Natalia Larina	50	Judge	5 June 2024	1	Moscow	Found dead after falling from her apartment in a high-rise building in Moscow 2024.[105]
Dzianis Sidarenka	48	Ambassador to Germany	24 June 2024	1	Minsk	Found dead after falling out of a window after interrogation, suspected suicide.[106]
Valentina Bondarenko	82	Economist	23 July 2024	1	Moscow	Found dead after falling out of the window of her Moscow-area apartment building.[107]
Georgy Chibisov	44	Marketing Director of the Moscow Exchange	27 July 2024	1	Moskva river near Moscow	Found drowned in the river after falling off of a cruise ship while trying to use its diving platform alone.[108]
Mikhail Rogachev	64	Former vice president of Yukos, former executive director of ONEXIM Group, former deputy general director of Norilsk Nickel	20 October 2024	1	Moscow	Found dead after falling out of the window of his Moscow-area apartment building.[109]

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

New Russian Contingency podcast from War on the Rocks - by guys who have just returned from Ukraine - is bleak for Ukraine

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that in the last couple years....

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Trump has no secret plan to end the war. You can't repeal and replace this with nothing like Obamacare. Both sides are very far from anything that resembles peace terms.

The weapons will flow, one way or another.

Very true , UKR wants Russia all out of UKR and Putler wants at least his 4 new Oblast which is unrealistic as well. Not sure how Trump thinks this will end with a simple deal.

 

[Boxiana]

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that in the last couple years....

If you haven’t been listening to that podcast for the last couple of years you’ve missed some very good and prescient analysis

 

[Boxiana]

That's unrealistic, and I've been saying Ukraine is losing for over a year.

The most Putin can get is Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, maybe demilitarized Odessa and Mykolaiv (under Ukrainian administration with limited Russian access) and no NATO for Ukraine.

Russia getting Dnipro River as dividing line is as delusional as Ukraine magically getting back its 1991 borders.

I said demand, not outcome