International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Badr Hari]

Russian fans? Hardly. I am simply a realist not drinking the "Slava Ukraini" Kool-aid and feeding you doses of reality in your echo chamber.

To your question, November if Ukraine doesn't lose Donetsk by then. After all, Murica did expectedly pass a $65 billion military assistance package after my original prediction was made.

I get your point that favors a Rus victory in a classical atrittional war. But to predict that it happens in November is a contradiction to your own statement. An atrittional war it has really been since November of 2022 (Ukr win of Kherson was really last tactical win in the war). And the progress from Rus side has been relatively slow, it took them forever and tens of thousands of killed soldiers in meat assaults to get four towns: Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. On the last two they lost more soldiers than there were inhabitants in the towns pre-war and took the ruins practically. As much as it's a small territorial gain (for which you have to zoom in the map as Ukr is freaking VAST) those are Phyrric wins that destroyed more men power of the assaulting force than of the enemy. Rus can't force an Ukr defeat if they constantly keep making Ukr a step back, because Ukr usually takes a step while throwing a punch and can technically make as much step backs as they are not fighting in Gaza, their territory is in military context infinite. Just to give an example of the tempo, you know Rus took Bakhmut in May 2023 right? Chasiv Yar is 20 minutes from Bakhmut and we are in September of 2024 and Rus haven't taken Chasiv Yar yet. And to make matters worse, even when they take Chasiv Yar ruins they will have the AFU displaced 20 or 30 minutes further to the west, probably better equipped this time, because even though Ukr's job at this point is to complain, you bet they are getting all kinds of supplies from left right and center. And even if somehow Rus mobilizes and pushes further in Donetsk in 2025 and in late 2025 or 2026 let's suppose PUSHES OUT Ukr from Kramatorsk and Slavayansk, do you think Kyiv will capitulate? Maximum they can achieve is a temporary cease fire ala Minsk agreement. And than a round two at a certain point is inevitable. Only way Rus win a war is by complete destruction of AFU and installment of pro-Kremlin regime. As long as AFU keeps growing (from a joke of an army to a serious contender in the whole of Europe actually) since Feb 2022 and as long as Ukr has a prime minister that flirts with the West and keeps calling Rus as 'occupiers' conflict can only be frozen, never ended.

 

[SandisLL]

I mean, I understand why a country today would send middle age men to war over younger guys, at least until it's necessary.

Ukraine in particular has demographic issues, but so does everyone. Sending middle aged men to war that already have kids just makes more sense in that context. The state can take care of their children if they die in combat, but there won't be a state if there aren't more generations coming.

Maybe reason is to reduce expenses on pensions in near future and improve statistics how Ukr will look after war for investors?

Cos about mobile 25-60 are a lot of claims from frontline commanders and employers who had essential workers sent to frontline.

A lot of commanders in pro ukr sources claims that they not rare cases are getting unusable soldiers and some cases better is to send them somewhere else in order not to create burden for other soldiers in unit....especially if these mobilized are not motivated and even should be supervised really close in order to know what they are doing and where they are etc.

Also IMHO country does need essential workers with experience for certain tasks behind frontlines..... also civilian tasks like electricity supply, waste water removal and treatment, water supply, communications , internet, mobile networks, hospials, graveyards, to produce coffins and to work in crematoriums, weapons and ammo production etc tasks....

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[GhostZ06]

Although Russia had previously deployed the Su-57 sporadically, the intensity and frequency of its use have grown significantly. In January, the UK Ministry of Defense reported that Su-57s had been used in Ukraine since at least June 2022, but their early deployment was limited. Now, these jets are playing a more active role, often launching strikes from Russian airspace over Kursk and Bryansk, as well as from occupied Luhansk.



In the past seven months alone, Russian forces have launched over 30 cruise missiles from Su-57 aircraft. Among these are the Kh-69 stealth cruise missiles, designed to destroy small, well-protected targets at ranges exceeding 180 miles. One notable strike using the Kh-69 occurred on April 11, 2024, when Ukraine’s Trypillia Thermal Power Plant near Kyiv was destroyed.


The Su-57s are also equipped with the Kh-58USHK anti-radiation missile, capable of targeting radar systems from distances of up to 150 miles, depending on launch conditions.


The Kh-69 is one of Russia’s latest missile systems, first publicly revealed in August 2022 at the Army-2022 military forum. Russia also showcased the missile at the Dubai Airshow in November 2023, describing it as a “next-generation multifunctional, low-visibility, high-precision cruise missile.”

lol firing cruise missiles is different

Russia’s Su-57 conducts 40+ strikes on Ukrainian targets

Russia's advanced Su-57 Felon aircraft have conducted more than 40 strikes against Ukraine, according to sources within Ukraine’s Air Force. These stealth fighters have become a more frequent tool in Russia's aerial campaign, with increased missile strikes recorded since late February 2024...

defence-blog.com

 

[SandisLL]

Interestingly that to change frontline more helpful for Russia are very old model Su-25 and this new Su-34.

Su-34 they are using mainly to drop gliding bombs while in this moment keeping airplane over territory already controlled by Russia's forces, i.e behind frontline .....

Su-25 are used to drop different bombs and launch different missiles and also for CAS missions.
Su-25 is very nasty airplane : durable workhorse easy to use from airfields close to frontline, it does have lower requirements for runways than these Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, Su-27 ....
Also Russia does have a lot of experienced technicians and pilots for Su-25 + huge stockpiles of USSR era unguided missiles for CAS role.

 

[Badr Hari]

Operational update from Ruski telegram:

Ukr is trying again last night for a breakthrough in the Glushkovsky district from the border village Novy Put. Biggest problems they faced was mines and Rus aviation. But tonight Ruski telegram reports that they have gained a foothold around the settlement Veseloye which is only a few miles away from Glushkovo town.

Report isn't confirmed yet but it's something Zelensky hinted they would try to do.

 

[GhostZ06]

Operational update from Ruski telegram:

Ukr is trying again last night for a breakthrough in the Glushkovsky district from the border village Novy Put. Biggest problems they faced was mines and Rus aviation. But tonight Ruski telegram reports that they have gained a foothold around the settlement Veseloye which is only a few miles away from Glushkovo town.

Report isn't confirmed yet but it's something Zelensky hinted they would try to do.

i figured they'd move up more mobile AA





it seems like UKR is a huge huge fan of the Scar L and H

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[Badr Hari]

For those who are bored, have a nice watch fellas:

 

[GhostZ06]

Romania might start shooting down drones that get near theyre border

Russian drones violate Romania and Latvia's airspace in just 24 hours

A Russian drone violated Romania's airspace forcing the airforce to scramble two F16 warplanes on Sunday and another crashed in Latvia on Saturday.

www.euronews.com

 

[GhostZ06]

UKR is also getting an evolution of the Gepard here the Skyranger turret on a leo 1




US army should look at doing something with the skyranger system

 

[Badr Hari]

next gem:

 

[Brueskie]

next gem:

You know Trump shit the bed when his supporters both in the US and abroad never even tried to spin the debate as a victory for him.

 

[Cid]

Probably means the stockpiles are low

There's probably a bunch of reasons.

Irans shitty ballistic missiles is the excuse.

Euro (lead by UK) been pressing for ages
Other countries are providing money for Ukraine's own deep strike capabilities.
The counter attack into Russia demonstrated a whole bunch of "red lines" are in fact not red lines
The counter and the drones have convinced a lot of the public that this isn't a lost cause anymore.
Democrats think Kamala will win but would rather saddle this on Biden.
Democrats think Trump might win and giving not just Ukraine but Western allies the go ahead for deep strikes is a contingency in the general theme of too little too late they've consistently gone with.


And yeah it's kinda stupid for western allies to insist Ukraine fight an artillery war when we're not artillery based armies and don't want to invest the required money into artillery production.

How deep US artillery stockpiles are is a mystery but without them Ukraine is in a horrible position.

 

[Cid]

I get your point that favors a Rus victory in a classical atrittional war. But to predict that it happens in November is a contradiction to your own statement. An atrittional war it has really been since November of 2022 (Ukr win of Kherson was really last tactical win in the war). And the progress from Rus side has been relatively slow, it took them forever and tens of thousands of killed soldiers in meat assaults to get four towns: Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. On the last two they lost more soldiers than there were inhabitants in the towns pre-war and took the ruins practically. As much as it's a small territorial gain (for which you have to zoom in the map as Ukr is freaking VAST) those are Phyrric wins that destroyed more men power of the assaulting force than of the enemy. Rus can't force an Ukr defeat if they constantly keep making Ukr a step back, because Ukr usually takes a step while throwing a punch and can technically make as much step backs as they are not fighting in Gaza, their territory is in military context infinite. Just to give an example of the tempo, you know Rus took Bakhmut in May 2023 right? Chasiv Yar is 20 minutes from Bakhmut and we are in September of 2024 and Rus haven't taken Chasiv Yar yet. And to make matters worse, even when they take Chasiv Yar ruins they will have the AFU displaced 20 or 30 minutes further to the west, probably better equipped this time, because even though Ukr's job at this point is to complain, you bet they are getting all kinds of supplies from left right and center. And even if somehow Rus mobilizes and pushes further in Donetsk in 2025 and in late 2025 or 2026 let's suppose PUSHES OUT Ukr from Kramatorsk and Slavayansk, do you think Kyiv will capitulate? Maximum they can achieve is a temporary cease fire ala Minsk agreement. And than a round two at a certain point is inevitable. Only way Rus win a war is by complete destruction of AFU and installment of pro-Kremlin regime. As long as AFU keeps growing (from a joke of an army to a serious contender in the whole of Europe actually) since Feb 2022 and as long as Ukr has a prime minister that flirts with the West and keeps calling Rus as 'occupiers' conflict can only be frozen, never ended.

No no no.

Manpower depletion is so bad that they're less capable than when the west was sending MANPADS, ATGM's and 5000 German helmets.

M777, Butloads of SPG's, HIMARS, Cluster, ATACMS, Storm shadow, NASAMS, Patriot, Iris-T, Long Range drone Capabilities, F-16, Scalp, JASSM.

None of these systems can replace the manpower Ukraine has lost to be effective.

I hear the only reason this is taking so long is Ukraine has been reduced to 5000 men and Russia just can't find them. Ukraine is a big country after all.

Any day now.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Of course Putler has said if UKR get's permission to use long range weapons against them that Nato will be at war with Russia. I'm not sure how he thinks that is a real threat as his gains n UKR over the last year tell a good story...

 

[Orgasmo]

I get your point that favors a Rus victory in a classical atrittional war. But to predict that it happens in November is a contradiction to your own statement. An atrittional war it has really been since November of 2022 (Ukr win of Kherson was really last tactical win in the war). And the progress from Rus side has been relatively slow, it took them forever and tens of thousands of killed soldiers in meat assaults to get four towns: Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. On the last two they lost more soldiers than there were inhabitants in the towns pre-war and took the ruins practically. As much as it's a small territorial gain (for which you have to zoom in the map as Ukr is freaking VAST) those are Phyrric wins that destroyed more men power of the assaulting force than of the enemy. Rus can't force an Ukr defeat if they constantly keep making Ukr a step back, because Ukr usually takes a step while throwing a punch and can technically make as much step backs as they are not fighting in Gaza, their territory is in military context infinite. Just to give an example of the tempo, you know Rus took Bakhmut in May 2023 right? Chasiv Yar is 20 minutes from Bakhmut and we are in September of 2024 and Rus haven't taken Chasiv Yar yet. And to make matters worse, even when they take Chasiv Yar ruins they will have the AFU displaced 20 or 30 minutes further to the west, probably better equipped this time, because even though Ukr's job at this point is to complain, you bet they are getting all kinds of supplies from left right and center. And even if somehow Rus mobilizes and pushes further in Donetsk in 2025 and in late 2025 or 2026 let's suppose PUSHES OUT Ukr from Kramatorsk and Slavayansk, do you think Kyiv will capitulate? Maximum they can achieve is a temporary cease fire ala Minsk agreement. And than a round two at a certain point is inevitable. Only way Rus win a war is by complete destruction of AFU and installment of pro-Kremlin regime. As long as AFU keeps growing (from a joke of an army to a serious contender in the whole of Europe actually) since Feb 2022 and as long as Ukr has a prime minister that flirts with the West and keeps calling Rus as 'occupiers' conflict can only be frozen, never ended.

You assume both sides will maintain parity in such warfare, which they do not. The weaker side will eventually fold as losses pile up. The pace of Ukrainian retreat has visibly picked up in recent months, and once the Porvortsk-Toretsk-Chasiv Yar line is broken through, there are nearly no natural defensive barriers until the Dnipro river. Also, the AFU is not growing. Ukrainian official stated it had 1.1 million members in September 2022, then Zelensky himself said 880k in early 2024. This is despite constant recruitment (forced mobilization) and no one allowed to be discharged.

There is no question that Ukraine is walking away with territorial losses. The only question is how much.

 

[Brueskie]

Of course Putler has said if UKR get's permission to use long range weapons against them that Nato will be at war with Russia. I'm not sure how he thinks that is a real threat as his gains n UKR over the last year tell a good story...

Putin thought those magic doodads (nukes) would make him immune to consequences from his actions.

 

[GhostZ06]

new border incursion

 

[GhostZ06]