International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

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Orgasmo said:
My original prediction last November was July this year, but then Murica passed a new $60 billion aid package. That will probably buy Ukraine 8 months to a year. Anyways I made an avatar bet with someone here and I'm good for it. Gay Trudeau avatar will be used starting in November.

I guess you're not paying attention to the collapsing Ukrainian lines in Donetsk then?

On the contrary, Russia will emerge from this war with a revitalized military and economy. Ukraine will be left a rump state.
Click to expand...
I like the fight you have
 
Orgasmo said:
My original prediction last November was July this year, but then Murica passed a new $60 billion aid package. That will probably buy Ukraine 8 months to a year. Anyways I made an avatar bet with someone here and I'm good for it. Gay Trudeau avatar will be used starting in November.

I guess you're not paying attention to the collapsing Ukrainian lines in Donetsk then?

On the contrary, Russia will emerge from this war with a revitalized military and economy. Ukraine will be left a rump state.
Click to expand...
Even the the super trolls have gone away for obvious reasons ....and yet you still trolling for Russia? , hope you are getting paid roubles for your nonsens.
 
Blayt7hh said:
Yeah let’s be real here, that wasn’t your ‘original prediction’ was it? More like one of many updated ones when Ukraine didn’t break like you thought they would
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There are so many factors that led Russia into this debacle. Chiefly Pres. Putin's hubris and the fact that he was in an information bubble. NO ONE gave him bad news saying "Hey those weapons we sent to our people in Ukraine? Yeah, they got intercepted."

Also, the Ukrainians got a taste of freedom and Democracy. You CANNOT give people freedom, then expect them to just roll over when you come to take it away.
 
Orgasmo said:
On the contrary, Russia will emerge from this war with a revitalized military and economy. Ukraine will be left a rump ststate.
Click to expand...

I hope this is true for the sake of the common Russian because it seems like this war was a terrible idea...I mean with all the maiming, killing, destruction, exodus of the population, severing of economic ties, severing of common bonds with neighboring countries, endless nuclear threats, etc etc...just seems like a terrible way to revitalize the economy and military.
 
calavera2 said:
I hope this is true for the sake of the common Russian because it seems like this war was a terrible idea...I mean with all the maiming, killing, destruction, exodus of the population, severing of economic ties, severing of common bonds with neighboring countries, endless nuclear threats, etc etc...just seems like a terrible way to revitalize the economy and military.
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revitalize military and economy... <{Heymansnicker}>
 


Liking the slight panick this attack is causing in Russian circles.

This is the kind of warfare that Ukraine should be looking to engage in.
Too bad the territory in Ukraine itself seems way to fortified for this to be possible,
As shown by basicly all recent offensives in Ukraine by either side.
 

These caused alot of problems for UA in the spring offensive, picking off armor left and right
Seems like they have improved their tactics.

Also a bit weird to see the amount of drone strikes vs helicopters these last few weeks.
In 2 years of war i have rarely seen footage of drones hitting helicopters, in the last couple of days i've seen 4.
 
Rholk said:

These caused alot of problems for UA in the spring offensive, picking off armor left and right
Seems like they have improved their tactics.

Also a bit weird to see the amount of drone strikes vs helicopters these last few weeks.
In 2 years of war i have rarely seen footage of drones hitting helicopters, in the last couple of days i've seen 4.
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They were flying choppers behind russian lines during counteroffensive, way harder to hit
 
Cole train said:
They were flying choppers behind russian lines during counteroffensive, way harder to hit
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well yeah, but what's keeping them from using them the same way now?

I did read about significant AA also beeing involved in this offensive, but i'd assume they were also involved in last years offensive.
 
Rholk said:
well yeah, but what's keeping them from using them the same way now?

I did read about significant AA also beeing involved in this offensive, but i'd assume they were also involved in last years offensive.
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Probably supporting attacking ground troops hence higher risk of being shot down

During counteroffensive it was all defence

Im not russian general but i think above maybe makes sense
 
Rholk said:
well yeah, but what's keeping them from using them the same way now?

I did read about significant AA also beeing involved in this offensive, but i'd assume they were also involved in last years offensive.
Click to expand...

I actually found some distances

During counteroffensive they were firing long range anti tank missiles 9 miles deep behind russian lines, extremely hard to hit with AA


www.businessinsider.com

Russia is using heavily modified Ka-52M aircraft in Ukraine and has equipped its fleet with long-range anti-tank missiles, says UK intel

Russia has started using "a heavily modified version" of the Ka-52 helicopter which was already giving it an advantage in Ukraine, the UK MOD said.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

The MI 2 that was "maybe" brought down by drone on july 31 was spotted working 3 miles from frontline then chased to 10 miles before beight brought down according to infamous david axe

www.forbes.com

A Two-Pound Ukrainian Drone May Have Shot Down A 12-Ton Russian Helicopter

It may be the first time a drone has destroyed a helicopter in mid-air.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Recent one shot down was supporting russian mechanized group how i understand so it got taken out.
 
Some of this is older video but only a few months but wow.
 
calavera2 said:
I hope this is true for the sake of the common Russian because it seems like this war was a terrible idea...I mean with all the maiming, killing, destruction, exodus of the population, severing of economic ties, severing of common bonds with neighboring countries, endless nuclear threats, etc etc...just seems like a terrible way to revitalize the economy and military.
Click to expand...
They had on paper re vitalized economy by placing restrictions and prohibitions, printing at least 3 500 000 000 000 roubles and huge orders for military and construction industry.
Putin is paying for reinforced concrete panels and bags for sand more than casual businesses.... also recruiters are hiring for special military operation employees working to produce these bags and panels....via offering more money.... than in factory... so businesses does have shortage of employees forcing to rise salary offers for next candidates...

Interest rates hiking ofc too despite is KD for casual businesses and will create inflation, in short term reduces inflation. Hiring for MIC and Special Operation ofc does reduce unemployment % and increase number of job offers for other industries.

So for Putin all does looks good : inflation slowed down, unemployment % dropped, number of jobs offers increased....so all OK.

While in January 2022 for long term economy perspective russian economists and financial experts had advised to keep rouble exchange rate approx the same and to reduce base key interest rate below 2,5% yuop ....
Putin rised this till 18%....

And yes, if for example you have real economy drop -2,5% and will invest savings worth 5% of nominal GDP ..you will get GDP rise by approx 2,5% and might tell that you are happy on paper....
Numbers here are illustrative example....
 
BTW one from factors how currency inh value is calculated is key interest base rate set by Central Bank. It is minimal interest rate Central Bank is asking for loans from commercial banks.

So if you see currency with exchange rate 88 roubles for 1 unit with 5% or 5,5% bki rate vs currency with 18 % bki rate.. ..
You should know that currency price is inherently lower for currency with higher bki rate.
In order to hide that currency with 18% bki rate does really cost 88:1 Hitler is ready to KD civilian long term economy....

Hitler might be correct that rouble does cost 88 :1 only IF rouble had the same interest rate bki like USD...
It isn't reality and math doesn't appease lies.
 
RUB/ USD if cbr didn't had rised key bki % rate today had exchange rate 100 or more for 1 USD$ ...in reality it does have this IMHO.
While Kremlin can't afford after yelling about de dollarization of world and accusations that FRS does print more money than CBR.....stuff that is debunked lies ....
Better is to increase bki % rate till 18% and tell that economy is fine and USD will collapse.

Russia is specific country therefore they might afford to rise bki till 18% ....while if in EU or U.K or U.S this had been done ....they had revolutions...

For Russia it is peace of cake.
Private debts of citizens and businesses last month had rised by extra plus 1 T roubles...
1 000 000 000 000 RUB...
At least .....
 
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