International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

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The Institute for the Study of Wars magic map does not show Ukraine holding any Russian territory as of 3.00 pm today.
 
Ukraine will never "win" this war if they don't mobilize more men. They need all the young men who haven't really been involved to actually fight. The lines are thin ATM.
 
More details on Wagner getting their asses handed to them two weeks ago in Mali:

- Reportedly about 80 Russians and 40 Malian army troops killed, effectively wiping out 10% of Wagner in Mali.
- The convoy started with 20 vehicles, which were all destroyed, damaged or captured. Convoy was wiped out after running into jihadist controlled territory after getting mauled by Tuareg rebels.
- Not a single ambush, but a series of attacks against the company sized units over 40km (~25 miles) in the desert with little cover. The Russians tried to run, but kept getting funneled deeper into the desert.
- The Russians were trying to capture gold mines to expand its business network in the Sahel region.
- Wagner had air support available, but sandstorm prevented them from utilizing it.
 


Doesn't look like any of the previous border raids.
Russian border defenses are revealed to be pretty exposed.

I do wonder what the long term goal of this attack is, i cant really see them holding on to the territory, the major benefit i can see is forcing Russia to spend a ton of resources on securing their entire border.
 
One theory flying around for kursk raid is upcoming gas negotiations since the gas station is there and current contract ends in december 31 and ukr is trying to improve their position at table.Hilarious that both countries still do business together but oligarchs gonna oligarch

Buut who knows in the end
 
Cole train said:
One theory flying around for kursk raid is upcoming gas negotiations since the gas station is there and current contract ends in december 31 and ukr is trying to improve their position at table.Hilarious that both countries still do business together but oligarchs gonna oligarch

Buut who knows in the end
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I like this theory more that Ukraine wants to force advancing Russian troops to have to react to the action in their own backyard. They are forcing Russia to potentially have to pull troops off the frontline to react to Ukrainian incursion into Russia.
 
PEB said:
I like this theory more that Ukraine wants to force advancing Russian troops to have to react to the action in their own backyard. They are forcing Russia to potentially have to pull troops off the frontline to react to Ukrainian incursion into Russia.
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Thats also a probable theory lol
 
PEB said:
I like this theory more that Ukraine wants to force advancing Russian troops to have to react to the action in their own backyard. They are forcing Russia to potentially have to pull troops off the frontline to react to Ukrainian incursion into Russia.
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Approx like this. Ukr managed to capture 11 small villages during 48 hours. Ofc mainly abadoned. Kadirovites had run away and oppressed local Ukrainian spekers captured more than 35 PoVs, destroyed at least 2 T-90 tanks and..... it is Kursk oblastj....so despite not significant area taken, for political reasons Putin should secure oblastj.
Therefore no more conscripts and kadirovitesx ....Putin had started to locate in Kursk oblastj experienced pros units....

Also looks that Russia attempted to use CAS missions sessions and therefore had lost 3 helicopters....

In order to counter ukr drones in Kursk oblastj Putin is forced to install radioelectronic warfare stations and more radars.......so ofc they will keep them there and will not be able to use them in other areas...... .
 
It would be awesome if Ukraine started digging trenches and bedding in on Russian territory, but if I had to guess the target here is to 1) give Putin a political black eye 2) force Russia to divert ressources from the front lines to not only Kursk but the entire border area. They can't have this happening over and over again... but the border is long and it's going to be hard to secure all of it.
 
In dumbass area Russia mainly is using such tactique : initially to drop gliding bombs and shell with MRLS type stuff and arty.
After thus to send small infantry groups, some on Gulf cars or motorbikes to taste can they take positions or no.

So Ukr badly needs to install as much mines and IEDs as it is possible and get .....jammers. A lot.

Gliding bombs are different models : some are using GPS, GLONASS, Baido sat nav....
GPS ofc civilian kits IMHO.

So jammers for thus stuff to do spoofing should be used a lot.

Against laser guided gliding bombs and shells they should spot possible operators on ground or drones etc iluminnating targets for guided bombs and shells.

From ammo looks that again old cluster ammo will be really usable stuff.

From modern ammo at least stryx and BONUS shells.../ bomblets. These are immune vs GPS jamming and easier might deal with cope Cage type grils than cheap Fpv drones....
 
Vergilius said:
It would be awesome if Ukraine started digging trenches and bedding in on Russian territory, but if I had to guess the target here is to 1) give Putin a political black eye 2) force Russia to divert ressources from the front lines to not only Kursk but the entire border area. They can't have this happening over and over again... but the border is long and it's going to be hard to secure all of it.
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Yes .
ASAP install mines, dig trenches, offer Ukr citizenship for locals in villages and ofc to do referendums! Copy paste from Russian tactique.
 
There is also stuff that most likely Ukr doesn't have enough missiles for S-300 systems ... also some radars most likely are gone....


So to counter ability to drop gliding bombs good might be if France will be more generous...ofc depends also from models of missiles for SAMP-T they will supply ....

Not likely latest, but 0 does have 120 km range ( Ukr S-300 usually had missiles with 90 km range from USSR era S 300 versions not more modern like Russia does have ) and 8 missiles pack for each launcher, more mobile than Patriot and might be easier to relocate + vertical start.
These also are normally usable for low flying high speed targets ( it is initially designed for ships air Def task ....later adopted for ground based stuff using trucks )....

The problem is price for missiles and concerns how ukr will operate arabel radar : most expensive stuff in battery ....
Also they will need some coverage with short range systems and preferably some even old medium range systems ....cheaper missiles to deal with slower targets etc....
 
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From old soviet weapons some still are very actual. The same AK-47 ( damn a lot of magazines and ammo produced ), AK-74 with variations, most common grenade launcher in dumbass still is RPG-7.
Old 1960 ies design disk type simple anti tank mines.
Aircraft : Su 25 still is actual stuff. Especially cos they are usable for CAS missions and does have pylons to hold and launch unguided air to ground missiles. While simple and not ideal, USSR had produced such stuff damn a lot.... aka vibe from Afganistan 1980 th - 1980 ies plus .....ol good cheap stuff...
Ofc modernised Su 25 might not only drop simple bombs too, also if does have suitable pods might launch laser guided bombs...

Usually Su 25 are used when aircraft is 20 km or 10 km from target or even above target.....and this airplane does have nickname Flying Tank.
 
Rholk said:


Doesn't look like any of the previous border raids.
Russian border defenses are revealed to be pretty exposed.

I do wonder what the long term goal of this attack is, i cant really see them holding on to the territory, the major benefit i can see is forcing Russia to spend a ton of resources on securing their entire border.
Click to expand...

Force Russia to move resources away from the places Ukraine wants to attack.l next.
 
Cole train said:
Thats also a probable theory lol
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I don't understand the "lol"? Because it does make sense as military men will tell you force a focus group to have to spread out weakening their focused area. Or in US football terms when your trying to move up 5 yards with a quarterback sneak draw everyone in the middle if you spread them out it breaks the momentum in the middle. So defense will try to ether plow through the middle with little luck our try to run around the offensive line to get at the quarterback sometimes with better luck but could weaken the middle at the same time.
 
PEB said:
I don't understand the "lol"? Because it does make sense as military men will tell you force a focus group to have to spread out weakening their focused area. Or in US football terms when your trying to move up 5 yards with a quarterback sneak draw everyone in the middle if you spread them out it breaks the momentum in the middle. So defense will try to ether plow through the middle with little luck our try to run around the offensive line to get at the quarterback sometimes with better luck but could weaken the middle at the same time.
Click to expand...

I add lol to 90 percent of my messages, i basically use it as emoji. It means nothing (retarded habit honestly)

If i had wanted to point out something about the discussed theory i would have mentioned it directly
 
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