International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[TheMoa]

Ukraine's ultimate condition for victory was pushing Russia completely out. This is unrealistic at this point.

It's now working towards half-victory in maintaining the current frontline as much as it can, reaching a long-term ceasefire, and continuing its path towards further Western integration.

This seems like a realistic goal.

Russia's ultimate condition for victory was changing the Ukraine regime so that it stops its' path towards Western integration. This is unrealistic at this point with Western-backing being consistent and unwavering (even if the US could be said to be flimsy, Europe isn't).

It's now working towards half-victory in reaching an agreement with the US to keep Ukraine from joining NATO and maintaining the territories it already took by force.

The West seemed to have at one point been hopeful that it can work towards regime change in Russia so that it can maintain its hegemony over the world and expand the Western era for another century.

This is unrealistic at this point. Although the Russian military turned out to be far weaker and less efficient than once thought to be, its economy, political structure, and society turned out to be more resilient than expected and economic networks with the 2nd/3rd world turned out to be unexpectedly dependable and strong.

It's now working towards half-victory in ceasing the war where it stands now, keeping remaining Ukraine on its path towards Western integration without an actual path towards NATO ascension, keeping Russia from furthering its relationship with Iran, and keeping China from accelerating its superpower growth more rapidly.

Biggest winner in all of this is China.

Unlike Russia, it's demographics remain undamaged.

Unlike the West, it's not struggling to contain threats around the world (it doesn't have things like Iran and Russia to worry about but rather has an incentive to support their regimes).

Unlike Ukraine, it's not losing territory.

It just comes out of this with a bigger economy and better relationships.

The US loses its dominance in the Middle East as soon as Iran develops its first nuclear bomb.

If the war in Ukraine ends this or next year, the future of Ukraine is still not clear. Yes it has tremendous financial support from the West but its demographics are damaged far more than Russia's. It's not clear how well it can recover or survive. Georgia came out of the 2008 Russia invasion with so much damage that it almost reverted back to the Russian sphere during the Ukraine crisis.

It's just such a messy situation with only half-victories and losses for everyone involved except China.

Now if Russia succeeds in amending China-India relations and somehow contributing to a good partnership between those 2 regional rivalries we'll be officially in the BRICs era.

It's a big IF and unlikely but the Kremlin would be able to see the Ukraine crisis end with the end of the Western-led world order; multipolar and not US-dominated.

The problem is that out of the BRICs; Russia paid the biggest price to achieve this aim and the biggest benefactors just end up being China and India.

A sober analyzes of the whole thing, I have a similar thinking. Would you mind telling me where in the world you are from?

My take on this is that Brazil is a weak link that can tilt things from one side to another, as it have abundance of resources, arable land and cheap labor. It has always been under USA influence, as the culture is similar, even though China is a major and better commercial partner.
Its advantage is that it's away from the epicenter of military conflict, the disadvantage is that the military culture is actually weak (because it had a military dictatorship in the past and the last president that's about to be jailed tried to use it to do a coup when he lost the election). So if push comes to shove the country is vulnerable.
That's why Trump's putting pressure to do a soft regime change here, current president is a firm believer in a multi-polar world.. but the last one actually is more of a vassal and has a huge 5th column here that would be in favor of trump intervening by military force. Clown world we live in.

 

[Cole train]

When is Rus economy not having trouble on the ground level?

It's stable and intact by Russian standards- which is sufficient in the context of its geopolitical conflict with the West.

No bigger problems before war

Agree on 2nd part

 

[ChessJitsu]

A sober analyzes of the whole thing, I have a similar thinking. Would you mind telling me where in the world you are from?

My take on this is that Brazil is a weak link that can tilt things from one side to another, as it have abundance of resources, arable land and cheap labor. It has always been under USA influence, as the culture is similar, even though China is a major and better commercial partner.
Its advantage is that it's away from the epicenter of military conflict, the disadvantage is that the military culture is actually weak (because it had a military dictatorship in the past and the last president that's about to be jailed tried to use it to do a coup when he lost the election). So if push comes to shove the country is vulnerable.
That's why Trump's putting pressure to do a soft regime change here, current president is a firm believer in a multi-polar world.. but the last one actually is more of a vassal and has a huge 5th column here that would be in favor of trump intervening by military force. Clown world we live in.

Brazil is a fascinating variable in this picture that doesn't get enough attention.

There's a lot of interesting things to explore there and how Latin America fits into the picture of Western vs. non-Western rhetoric against each.

It just adds a complex layer to this topic.

I was born in a Mongol province in Russia but my family immigrated to the US when I was 8 (I'm 33 years old).

I'm Buddhist and against war but I think all the big important countries are basically run by cold-minded high IQ people and world politics follows clockwork mechanistic patterns beyond the scope of understanding of medium IQ underachiever rhetoric (I'm just as dumb as Limbo Pete) we have on these boards.

 

[Cole train]

Brazil is a fascinating variable in this picture that doesn't get enough attention.

There's a lot of interesting things to explore there and how Latin America fits into the picture of Western vs. non-Western rhetoric against each.

It just adds a complex layer to this topic.

I was born in a Mongol province in Russia but my family immigrated to the US when I was 8 (I'm 33 years old).

I'm Buddhist and against war but I think all the big important countries are basically run by cold-minded high IQ people and world politics follows clockwork mechanistic patterns beyond the scope of understanding of medium IQ underachiever rhetoric (I'm just as dumb as Limbo Pete) we have on these boards.

Buriatia?

No need to answer if its too personal, you are just unique since most rus speakers on forum are either moscow or saint pete

 

[ChessJitsu]

Buriatia or kalmykia?

No need to answer if its too personal, you are just unique since most rus speakers on forum are either moscow or saint pete

Kalmykia.

I made a video about my DNA results lol:



Most ethnic Russians and people of Russia who live in the West are in their 20s/30s tend to be fiercely anti-Putin and pro-West (or just apolitical).

Most ethnic Russians and people of Russia who live in Russia tend to be pro-Putin.

I don't think the average person has the capacity or honesty to authentically try to view these kind of issues from different sides (I don't pretend to either).

 

[Cole train]

Kalmykia.

I made a video about my DNA results lol:



Most ethnic Russians and people of Russia who live in the West are in their 20s/30s tend to be fiercely anti-Putin and pro-West (or just apolitical).

Most ethnic Russians and people of Russia who live in Russia tend to be pro-Putin.

I don't think the average person has the capacity or honesty to authentically try to view these kind of issues from different sides (I don't pretend to either).

mr unicorn lol

Yea i agree with rest of the post

 

[Limbo Pete]

You're sick of it because you're firmly rooted to one side and hate others who might disagree with you.

Ah yes the benevolent middle ground man, virtue signalling from on high lol

The Russian perspective is that a long list of sovereign countries were razed to the ground by US-led military operations; Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Serbia.

No it's not lmao why do you critters keep repeating this tired old shit
The Russian perspective is the Putin perspective, and that guy gives absolutely zero fucks about human life, and he certainly doesn't care about the US military shooting people in Afghanistan lol
He's not sitting around worried the US is going to invade him. That's absolute nonsense. Nor is he concerned for the well being of anyone else. He's a mobster who wants to eat the world, full stop.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

1. Ukaine had a potential path to NATO.

2. Yes, Russia shares a tiny NATO border with Norway, as you mentioned. Invasion of a NATO country is out-of-the-question, hence the strong security interest in keeping neighboring countries from joining NATO if relations with the massive military alliance is questionable.

3. The result of Finland & Sweden joining NATO is one of the several reasons the Ukraine invasion was a huge blunder for Russia.

4. There is no threat of NATO invading Russia today, but geopolitical considerations take into account possibilities hundreds of years into the future. I'm not going to go into great detail, but with the Western economies dwarfing Russia and Russia's growth not being too impressive, the technological gap between the West and Russia will only grow wider and wider. Just casually allowing neighboring states to join NATO as this gap widens is like playing chess and just casually letting your opponent gain pawn advantages over you again and again until you're going in to the middle game with a -5 or bigger material disadvantage.

It's okay to feel differently about stuff but I don't understand how a lot of Europeans on this board don't even make an attempt to be open-minded or put themselves in different people's shoes.

It's just hate and bigotry 24/7.

Hate and bigotry? There is a madman that is responsible for 100's of thousands of deaths and ruined millions of peoples lives...sorry for not being open minded and support this barbarian.

 

[ChessJitsu]

Ah yes the benevolent middle ground man, virtue signalling from on high lol


No it's not lmao why do you critters keep repeating this tired old shit
The Russian perspective is the Putin perspective, and that guy gives absolutely zero fucks about human life, and he certainly doesn't care about the US military shooting people in Afghanistan lol
He's not sitting around worried the US is going to invade him. That's absolute nonsense. Nor is he concerned for the well being of anyone else. He's a mobster who wants to eat the world, full stop.

What does "wants to eat the world, full stop" mean?

 

[Limbo Pete]

Ukraine's ultimate condition for victory was pushing Russia completely out.

Ukraines actual condition for victory is survival, because the goal of Putin is to absorb and occupy them. He wants to subjugate and demolish Ukrainian sovereignty and cultural identity. He wants the idea of Ukraine as a nation to be _dead_ and he wants to steal all their stuff.

 

[Limbo Pete]

What does "wants to eat the world, full stop" mean?

It means he's an imperialist fueling a bottomless need to take

 

[Strychnine]

You're literally following fantasy channels on YouTube.

They have them on both sides.

Ok,

Please post your source of information that you trust.

Show us the way brother!!!!!

 

[Strychnine]

Someone ignores the "No Smoking" sign at a Russian chemical plant.

 

[ChessJitsu]

Ok,

Please post your source of information that you trust.



Show us the way brother!!!!!

I try to follow pretty much everything (without agreeing with the narrative of each).

With those fantasy channels that you posted though, if you follow their content every week you'll be surprised that the war situation is as it is right now. You'd think that Kiev would be in Moscow by now. That's how silly they are.

 

[Strychnine]

I try to follow pretty much everything (without agreeing with the narrative of each).

With those fantasy channels that you posted though, if you follow their content every week you'll be surprised that the war situation is as it is right now. You'd think that Kiev would be in Moscow by now. That's how silly they are.

Oh, so you've got nothing...

You hear that?

Yeah, we're done here.

 

[ChessJitsu]

Ukraines actual condition for victory is survival, because the goal of Putin is to absorb and occupy them. He wants to subjugate and demolish Ukrainian sovereignty and cultural identity. He wants the idea of Ukraine as a nation to be _dead_ and he wants to steal all their stuff.

What does "survival" mean in this context?

If the war were to end soon, with Russia fully annexing the oblasts it legally recognizes as its own, would that count as survival?

 

[Strychnine]

@GhostZ06 What do your sources say about this?

 

[Limbo Pete]

What does "survival" mean in this context?

If the war were to end soon, with Russia fully annexing the oblasts it legally recognizes as its own, would that count as survival?

Would Ukraine still be a country? Because they want to exist, and Putin wants them gone

 

[ChessJitsu]

Oh, so you've got nothing...

You hear that?

Yeah, we're done here.

okay... why does everything have to be an argument instead of a discussion?

 

[ChessJitsu]

Would Ukraine still be a country? Because they want to exist, and Putin wants them gone

...right, but say Ukraine is still a country when this ends but only maintains half of its territory. Are you saying this counts as a victory?

I think, in Putin's ideal world, yes., Ukraine would be annexed by Russia at this point., but it's clear that's unrealistic at this point and he also recognizes that. That's my opinion.