International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[San Marino]

6 August 2025

 

[TheMoa]

From what I gather, Ukraine has only a few miles left open before they seriously begin considering pulling out?

Seems to be... and since the start of the war Kiev have put forward the doctrine of not allowing commanders to pull back and ceding land (that's what a pro ukraine guy said) even when it would give some tactical advantage (like higher ground). They're only allowed when HQ tells them to. So I would expect a siege there while other russian troops keep pushing forward.

Trump says he plans to meet with Putin and Zelenski in Ukraine next week. I'm curious about what have been discussed, if they meet in Ukraine it would means one form of cease fire in place. Dude can't risk going in a drone infested place.

 

[syct23]

Seems to be... and since the start of the war Kiev have put forward the doctrine of not allowing commanders to pull back and ceding land (that's what a pro ukraine guy said) even when it would give some tactical advantage (like higher ground). They're only allowed when HQ tells them to. So I would expect a siege there while other russian troops keep pushing forward.

Trump says he plans to meet with Putin and Zelenski in Ukraine next week. I'm curious about what have been discussed, if they meet in Ukraine it would means one form of cease fire in place. Dude can't risk going in a drone infested place.

Sounds like Ukraine had an idea for holding a few months longer but the Russians actually started thinking and opted to start surrounding the city instead of running in head first…it’s learning

Ukraine will pick up and pull back to the next city. Now time for Ukraine to figure out how to counter an encircling meat grinder..

Peace will not come, well trump is in office.

trumps main goal is $$$. If there is peace, there is no $$$ to be made.

If anything, release the Russian $$$ being held back and give it to Ukraine, and they can pay for the equipment needed. Show trump enough $$$ and he will grant Ukraine any weapon short of a Nuke to purchase and use.

 

[TheMoa]

If anything, release the Russian $$$ being held back and give it to Ukraine, and they can pay for the equipment needed. Show trump enough $$$ and he will grant Ukraine any weapon short of a Nuke to purchase and use.

Look, I know it seems fair to Ukraine... but you got to understand that it would fastrack the fall of USA financial dominance tenfold.
The seize of assets by the unilateral decision of USA trough SWIFT gave a pause to a ton a countries around the world, that's the reason why Biden probably held back in giving it to Ukraine and is giving only the interest. Think this way... every oil country with their dictators started to think "if someone in Washington is not happy with my crimes he can just seize everything with a pen stroke". But not only countries with dictators, every country has some kind of dirt.
Meanwhile China quietly comes talking in their ears about CIPS (that's actually faster than SWIFT). That shit has way more geopolitical implications than just helping Ukraine in this war.

 

[San Marino]

Seems to be... and since the start of the war Kiev have put forward the doctrine of not allowing commanders to pull back and ceding land (that's what a pro ukraine guy said) even when it would give some tactical advantage (like higher ground). They're only allowed when HQ tells them to. So I would expect a siege there while other russian troops keep pushing forward.

An endless war which Ukraine will lose. Well, they are actually losing now.
Just look at Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. So much fighting and dying by us (the United States) only to lose all 3 wars at the end.
Ukrainians better start brushing up on their Russian.

Trump says he plans to meet with Putin and Zelenski in Ukraine next week. I'm curious about what have been discussed, if they meet in Ukraine it would means one form of cease fire in place. Dude can't risk going in a drone infested place.

A waste of time. Nothing will change with the exception of a Russian victory.
Trump is still under the illusion that he can change Putin's mind. He can't. Trump is getting played by Putin and does not even know it.
There is nothing to discuss. Putin will not accept a ceasefire until he has achieved his goals in Ukraine. He is getting close to it.
The Russian Army gets bigger while the Ukrainian Army gets smaller.

 

[SandisLL]

Putin will continue...
They now even more are confident that will keep at least these land peaces they will control in moment when will sign toilet paper worth peace treaty.
So, obiviously more = better.

For China and NK = the longer will be war in ukraine, the better for them.
Not only cos they might get commodtities from russia with discounts and sell their own stuff for increased prices....
They might increase financial and economical impact in Russia....and this is long term planning not short sighted decisions and short term impact.

☆ main reason is to make russia more and more dependent from china...
☆ Next, not easy to see for casuals reason is .....
When russia is more busy with ukr and should spend a lot of $ for war in ukraine and propaganda .....
Then China is using this time in order to increase China's economical and financial impact in africa, asia etc... cos they now does have accumulated $, precious metals, essential commodities AND even are expanding their % in weapons sales market...

There aren't reasons why not to use such chance and China is using this 1200+ days in row with smile.
These are long term aims for decades ....

 

[SandisLL]

Russian ideology perfectly described difference between them and west: we do have time for generations, they ( west ) does have time till next elections.....

China is calculating plans for decades, russian rulers are dreaming about their names in history books...

☆ china is expanding their impact from Serbia and Belarus, some african areas and caucasus, middle east and gulf area, asia and even countries from uzbekistan and kazahstan etc..
If they even managed to sell weapons for Belarus and Serbia , Armenia, Azerbaijan, then ofc there are xx countries not mentioned here....

 

[ShinkanPo]

30-180 days ceasefire means advantage for russia not ukr..and they might had prepare xx false flags actions in order to rush next active phase.
Longer cesefire than 180 days might maybe help a bit for ukr.
IF russia will continue to yell loud etc...

Yeah Russia has a larger industrial base than UKR.

While Ukraine now relies on piecemeal weapons platforms and dependent on Pump'$ mood.

Pump should pump more weapons up Zelenkies ass.

 

[TheMoa]

☆ china is expanding their impact from Serbia and Belarus, some african areas and caucasus, middle east and gulf area, asia and even countries from uzbekistan and kazahstan etc..
If they even managed to sell weapons for Belarus and Serbia , Armenia, Azerbaijan, then ofc there are xx countries not mentioned here....

They're cozying up to Brazil too. Brazilian military is heavily pro USA (because soft power and commission in their overpriced weapons buys), so recently some "reports" came up about part of the military being uncomfortable with China sweet talk. The government on the other hand just sent 2 military attachés of general rank to live and negotiate deals there (previously only USA had general rank attachés from Brazil).

 

[ShadowRun]

 

[Nameless King]

What would be a fair deal in your opinion? Would you see Ukr in Nato?

There need to be some guarantee for Ukraine, that's for sure. If they don't agree at the very least demiliarized zone just like in Koreas then might as well just give up the whole country. As soon as Trump leaves office Putin will say 'it was a deal with Trump' and will resume attacks. The scourge cannot be trusted.

Demiliarized zone with sentry towers, snipers, heavy minefields and shut borders with Belarus and Scourge might be the most reasonable of solutions if Nato is out of question.

 

[TheMoa]

Propaganda sure is funny. Today I saw 5 different videos talking about the Putin-Trump meeting
American Trump biased video: "Putin blinked and that's why they're meeting"
Russia biased video: "Trump blinked and that's why they're meeting"
NATO (UK)biased video: "Putin will come groveling to Trump"
Ukraine biased video: "I think Putin offered something good to Trump and he'll discard Ukraine's interest in this"
American anti Trump video: "Putin will just keep stringing Trump along"

 

[SandisLL]

What would be a fair deal in your opinion? Would you see Ukr in Nato?

There need to be some guarantee for Ukraine, that's for sure. If they don't agree at the very least demiliarized zone just like in Koreas then might as well just give up the whole country. As soon as Trump leaves office Putin will say 'it was a deal with Trump' and will resume attacks. The scourge cannot be trusted.

Demiliarized zone with sentry towers, snipers, heavy minefields and shut borders with Belarus and Scourge might be the most reasonable of solutions if Nato is out of question.

Ukr in NATO or EU?
I don't support such idea and actually a lot of european politicians openly or not openly doesn't support this and for a reason.
1. Ukr despite hype propaganda actually did ALL the best in their abilities in order to De Militarize.... 30 years in row with vigor and diligence....
2. Ukr is huge risk that they might elect bunches with Orban and Fico, Lukashenko like politicians...
We do have Orban and Fico. At least Orban always is the same, so considerably more predictable unlike Fico ...also more fair...
Enough.
3. Ukr just in 1999 th were strategic weapons suppliers for russia, in 2000-2002 and 2010 th had conducted joint exercises with russia etc etc.

4. Ukr does have border with risky region in Transistria ...it is high financial and security risk.
5. Ofc border disputes with western friends and bottlemates in russia.

Etc. These are just small part of reasons...why NO.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Propaganda sure is funny. Today I saw 5 different videos talking about the Putin-Trump meeting
American Trump biased video: "Putin blinked and that's why they're meeting"
Russia biased video: "Trump blinked and that's why they're meeting"
NATO (UK)biased video: "Putin will come groveling to Trump"
Ukraine biased video: "I think Putin offered something good to Trump and he'll discard Ukraine's interest in this"
American anti Trump video: "Putin will just keep stringing Trump along"

Ya, the reports have been all over the map. there is only a handful of sources I really trust. One of Spins Marino's trusted sources Times now" had a thumbnail saying "war is over".

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

What would be a fair deal in your opinion? Would you see Ukr in Nato?

There need to be some guarantee for Ukraine, that's for sure. If they don't agree at the very least demiliarized zone just like in Koreas then might as well just give up the whole country. As soon as Trump leaves office Putin will say 'it was a deal with Trump' and will resume attacks. The scourge cannot be trusted.

Demiliarized zone with sentry towers, snipers, heavy minefields and shut borders with Belarus and Scourge might be the most reasonable of solutions if Nato is out of question.

It's going to be a hard deal to make. Zelensky wants to meet with Putler but what is he going to ask for? He'll want Putler to get out but at the same time Puter wants what he has and more and dealing with putler is close to impossible

 

[SandisLL]

I will post here a bit more than I'm telling in real life. Reasons why.
Ukraine even if didn't had 2022 th - today shit war...
wasn't ready for EU membership nor NATO membership.
According my opinions even if Putin told that he agree, Ukr isn't ready...

I don't want that EU countries will be forced to implement Lisbon treaty and Vienna agreements in behalf for Ukraine if they will not improve during decade plus in row.
It is even xx more binding stuff than NATO 5 th article etc NATO stuff.

It isn't joke...maybe EU and NATO might accept Zimbabwe today then too? Why not?

 

[SandisLL]

About ukr I can't understand why for example government doesn't implement real wartime economy? Easy might copy paste U.S and U.K orders 1941 th ...and translate & implement.

Infrastructure projects for esthetic purposes in artillery firing range from frontline?
In U.K or USSR or U.S or WW1 or WW2 Germany such specialists definitely had been kicked out from posts and feeded for really fast court trials...in rows.

 

[TheMoa]

It's going to be a hard deal to make. Zelensky wants to meet with Putler but what is he going to ask for? He'll want Putler to get out but at the same time Puter wants what he has and more and dealing with putler is close to impossible

Most places I read that Putin ain't meeting Zelensky. He agreed to meet Trump, the idea of Zelensky being there too was brought up later and they didnt agree with that. Zelensky video later about "the key is to ensure they don’t deceive anyone in the details — neither us nor the United States" kind makes me feel that's probably true. Putin probably doesnt want a counter narrative in the meeting.

I think the deal will involve Russia getting the oblasts they already took, some form of cease-fire and lifiting of some sanctions on Russia.

The NATO/buffer zone thing that's the catch there, not sure what anyone would be willing to concede. We know that Trump doesnt think long term, so maybe we'll see a buffer deal here? Something that'll be somebody else trouble years down the line.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Most places I read that Putin ain't meeting Zelensky. He agreed to meet Trump, the idea of Zelensky being there too was brought up later and they didnt agree with that. Zelensky video later about "the key is to ensure they don’t deceive anyone in the details — neither us nor the United States" kind makes me feel that's probably true. Putin probably doesnt want a counter narrative in the meeting.

I think the deal will involve Russia getting the oblasts they already took, some form of cease-fire and lifiting of some sanctions on Russia.

The NATO/buffer zone thing that's the catch there, not sure what anyone would be willing to concede. We know that Trump doesnt think long term, so maybe we'll see a buffer deal here? Something that'll be somebody else trouble years down the line.

You think Russia will get all 4 oblasts ? they havnt taken Zaporizhzhia and that city has 750,000 people, do you just tell them to vacate for Putler? Lots of people in Kherson also....that will be a non starter for UKR for sure.

 

[TheMoa]

You think Russia will get all 4 oblasts ? they havnt taken Zaporizhzhia and that city has 750,000 people, do you just tell them to vacate for Putler? Lots of people in Kherson also....that will be a non starter for UKR for sure.

I mean what they occupied... maybe not the full oblasts?
Maybe withdraw in some places while Ukraine cedes another places so a buffer zone can be established.
Truth is, Ukraine doesnt have much bargaining power. Their manpower are really overextended at this point and Russia has been hitting their infrastructure hard the last months. I have no idea about timeline, but if the defenses start o collapse it'll become lawn mower. Plus even if there's a blank check by EU/USA to provide weapons, the western war industry production is lacking in a full scale war. USA stocks ran low a couple of months ago, they spent a full month bombing Houthis and had to divert weapons from ukraine to Israel. They're late on many weapons deals around the world.
And that's why Putin doesnt want Zelensky in the meeting, he'll probably give up some phony shit to Trump without an Ukrainian there to pushback, Trump will get his pace maker headline and if Ukraine doesnt accept it the onus will be put on them. I'm not talking about fairness here, but what I'll see happening.
Remember that USA still is on a comercial war with China and they're witholding some of that rare earth magnets needed to the industry.
And like I said, I'll think it'll not be a permanent deal... a buffer deal that'll needed to be addressed by different people down the line.
Obviously these are conjectures by me here, but that's the read I getting in this situation.