International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Cid]

they kinda suck, funny enough we captured one of in libya and i imagine the British took the one in the Ukraine.

Also it looks like US did in fact acquire and ship back he the 2 KA-52s

Really can't find an easier to hit target. Big, slow. Still missed.

 

[aerius]

Those numbers are horse shit. Real numbers are around:

Ukr 100k killed + 600k wounded
Rus 200k killed + 800k wounded

Close to 70% of wounded on both camps return to combat within weeks/months

Get real. Bakhmut alone had nearly 100k deaths, Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 was another 100k+, and Kursk was another 80-100k deaths depending on who you believe. There is no fucking way in hell that total casualties for both sides are under 2 million, especially with only 300k deaths.

 

[SandisLL]

For me looks that someone is concrned that ukraine might not have enough manpower for mobilization when russia will incorporate Ukraine in russian federation.

For someone maybe best scenario might be if ukrainians might had been used to deNazify Moldova, then deUkrainization process vs Romania and Poland to reach enough casualities for deUkrainization?

Putin might remember that 1939 th four months vs Finland was effective deUkrainization process...ukr conscripts, winter, Finland 1939th.

BTW now are modern mobile crematoriums, China is selling upgraded models with discounts.

 

[SandisLL]

There ofc theoretically IF Putin will control all ukraine might be that He will remember that Hitler had annexed Austria.
Orban and Fico maybe will allow friendly, peaceful exercises and vuala, rus military might have ground border vs Austria and then... ofc ultimatums, might offer friendly exercises in Austria and if will not agree, maybe Solovjov will tell that in Austria are secret biolabs and Austria should be deNazified and liberated ....

 

[Badr Hari]

Get real. Bakhmut alone had nearly 100k deaths, Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 was another 100k+, and Kursk was another 80-100k deaths depending on who you believe. There is no fucking way in hell that total casualties for both sides are under 2 million, especially with only 300k deaths.

But Bakhmut is the harshest of all battles and Kursk number is likely inflated.
I think it is, because guess what, as brutal as this war is, media hypes shit as well. Both sides still find time to make stand up shows and regularly play their soccer games. It isn't all as apocalyptic as some bloggers make it to be. If it was, they wouldn't sabotage the negotiations in every turn they can. 90% of front line has been positional battle for 90% of the time.

 

[Cid]

Have to wonder how the long range campaign will effect regular Russians and their attitude to the war. Predominately loud, slow bombs flying hundreds of kilometers to hit their targets. They're going to pass over cities, people will see and hear them. If they hit anything fuel related they leave massive fires that last days and spread smoke over large areas. If they can hit enough refineries and depots it will begin to effect fuel prices for everyday Russians.

They're going to realize the numbers are not decreasing.

Would be interesting to hear the thoughts of residents of Belgorod on the war. By now they would be fully aware that the drones are increasing in number.

 

[Cid]

If your country has been at war for three years and now you're experiencing long range drones flying over head, which you've never experienced before. It's not great.

Realizing that they are increasing in number and frequency is another. Hard to think positively about a war when you're seeing and hearing more and more and more bombs flying over your towns and cities when there was nothing for years before it.

For Ukrainians this has been the norm. For Russians this is new.

 

[Strychnine]

And Ukraine has over 1.5 million casualties.

Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast

Should Kyiv collapse, the Russian army will surge forward, pushing the line of contact deeper into Ukraine and peace terms will get worse

responsiblestatecraft.org

Ukraine’s total losses are hard to assess. The Jamestown Foundation estimated that Ukraine had mobilized 2 million men back in July 2023, and the number should be approaching 3 million by now. Most estimates place the Ukrainian fielded army at about 1 million men, while Zelenskyy claimed to be fielding 880,000. The official Ukrainian losses of 43,000 are unrealistic in the light of previous numbers. For a more realistic estimate, the “Antiseptic” Telegram channel has one of the few databases that compare current and prewar satellite photos of select Ukrainian cemeteries. The limited nature of cemeteries may result in undercounting; for example, the city of Kharkiv has multiple cemeteries, but only cemetery #18 was surveyed. Soldiers buried in other city cemeteries are not counted. The chart below averages out the percent of prewar population lost by locality and then compares it to the total population of Ukraine. The final estimate is about 769,000 dead, and based on historical data, likely another 769,000 wounded who will never recover enough to go back to the front.

This matches the Jamestown Foundation’s estimate. Some 1.5 million are permanent losses, another 400,000-600,000 wounded recovering in hospitals, leaving 1 million to 800,000 still in the field.

Ukraine can't even claim a favourable loss ratio at this point and it's only going to get worse for them.



I can show you just as many videos of Ukrainians getting pulverized by drones, artillery, bombs, and thermobaric rockets. I choose not to post them here because I don't feel it brings anything to the discussion, it's just senseless war porn and glorification of killing.

I think it just goes to show how much Putin has fallen for his own publicity within Russia. Ukraine will never surrender, and Russia will keep throwing its men into the meat grinder that is Ukraine.

Because NATO (according to some people here, not you necessarily).

 

[Strychnine]

Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank doing Leopard 2A4 things.

 

[San Marino]

If your country has been at war for three years and now you're experiencing long range drones flying over head, which you've never experienced before. It's not great.

Realizing that they are increasing in number and frequency is another. Hard to think positively about a war when you're seeing and hearing more and more and more bombs flying over your towns and cities when there was nothing for years before it.

For Ukrainians this has been the norm. For Russians this is new.

Please!
Russians can handle drones flying overhead and drone strikes as well as the Ukrainians.
The damage from drones is nothing compared to artillery and missiles strikes. What is the payload of a drone compared to an artillery round or missile? Ukraine is not doing any real damage in Russian cities. Russia is doing damage to Ukrainian cities. Russia has not yet used any large payloads on Ukrainian cities. That is a real surprise. Putin (Russia) could level all major cities in Ukraine with conventional missiles. Why he hasn't done this remains a mystery. All Ukraine has is a limited number of Neptune missiles that can reach Moscow.

 

[Cid]

Please!
Russians can handle drones flying overhead and drone strikes as well as the Ukrainians.
The damage from drones is nothing compared to artillery and missiles strikes. What is the payload of a drone compared to an artillery round or missile?

Their payload weighs more than an artillery shell, steel included. 50kg to 75kg.

You really are a dumbass.

 

[San Marino]

Both sides still find time to make stand up shows and regularly play their soccer games.

Part of most wars in the 20th century.

It isn't all as apocalyptic as some bloggers make it to be.

Ah, yes, it is. Both sides reaching or surpassing the 1 million casualty mark in 3 years of conflict.

Mariupol, Ukraine:



Bakhmut, Ukraine:

 

[San Marino]

Their payload weighs more than an artillery shell, steel included. 50kg to 75kg.
You really are a dumbass.

. Drone explosive payload (average): 80 to 100 pounds (45kg).
. Artillery payload: 50 to 200 pounds (91kg). - 155mm shell and an 8-inch howitzer.
You never did spend time with Artillery guys, did you? The "King" of battle.

 

[SandisLL]

There isn't just 40 or 90 kg payloads for drones. There long ago had been larger payloads too...

Additionally there besides PR talks aren't confirmations that Neptune might reach range more than 400 km. Ofc in propaganda talks yes.....

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

Those numbers are horse shit. Real numbers are around:

Ukr 100k killed + 600k wounded
Rus 200k killed + 800k wounded

Close to 70% of wounded on both camps return to combat within weeks/months

Aerius low key is becoming worse than San Marino in posting completely delusional propaganda /numbers. Last time he posted a complete laughingstock of an article that claimed Ukraine lost several times more soldiers and most of Russian injured get back in the war while Ukrainians lost just about all of them and they could not come back. I read far more sensible and accurate information on Russian Telegram channels than I do from him.

Ukraine's defense industry says the fight against Russia has shown it that the West's approach to weapons is wrong

The Ukraine war shows that instead of a small amount of the best equipment, countries need a lot of less-impressive gear, a Ukrainian industry rep said.

www.yahoo.com

There's definitely a strong point in sheer numbers. The West is overly preoccupied with highly precise missiles whereas Russians just want millions of dumb rockets they can lob down range...

 

[SandisLL]

So, converted into drone An-2 biplane easily might be loaded with even 700 kg payload.

Ukraine had used for example converted small cheap 2 sit and 4 sit civilian mini airplanes converted into improvised drones and in such case they might carry 170- 400 kg payload....
In Crimea one from such drones had been successfully intercepted with OMON office building.

Yes, there are different drones, some does have even just 1/2 lbs payload.

 

[SandisLL]

Russia didn't had used large payloads yet?
North Korean KN 23 missile does have 700 - 950 kg payload.
Kh 22 missile does have 950 - 1000 kg payload and had been used since february 2022 th.

Kalibr missiles does have different models and payloads are 150-300-450 kg....
However they mainly had been used against substations and transformators, for such targets they appeared very effective.

Plus there isn't just payload, there is remained yet unused fuel....

Even small Kh 35 cruise missile does have warhead with weight " on passport " 145 kg plus ofc if missile had hit target, let's say after had used half of fuel filled in it's tanks ....then there additional effect rather than just from warhead might happen.

 

[SandisLL]

BTW converted into drones An-2 biplanes ( kukuruznik ) are ofc easy to detect and locate quickly.

However their usage as drones was:
1. To get air defense triggered and force to react.
2. For targets located very close to frontline so more chance to hit some targets or target area.

Kukuruzniks converted into improvised drones had been used in africa, in Karabah wars etc.

 

[Cid]

. Drone explosive payload (average): 80 to 100 pounds (45kg).
. Artillery payload: 50 to 200 pounds (91kg). - 155mm shell and an 8-inch howitzer.
You never did spend time with Artillery guys, did you? The "King" of battle.

155 shell is not 90kg doofus. 155 weigh around 45kgs. 90kg is a back breaking weight to load into a gun.

The payload within the shell is less than 45kg.

Total weight - weight of metal = payload.

Liutyi the drone in the video has a payload of 50-75kg.

 

[GhostZ06]

Really can't find an easier to hit target. Big, slow. Still missed.

It looks like the missile malfunctioned, kinda of a common error in most systems. Also we already know the Pan sir is not a good system, in fact it's a piece of shit. Even the Russian military think it is. Tor, BUK and Tunguska i think are still the better systems specially the more modern BUK and TOR systems.

Also i read some where the Targeting systems and OS on pan sir is god awful. But you gotta hand to then Russian military, they have better SHORAD them then we do, and they built theyre from the ground up.

We have this stupid ass thing...effective, but i think we can do better