International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[San Marino]

...and there it is again. San Marino becomes the most talked about guy in this thread. Nothing to do with the Russian/Ukraine conflict. Just personal insults. Great moderation as always. God forbid anyone should talk about how Russia is doing in this conflict.

Well I invite everyone over to the Veterans thread to see what the rest of us think of you.

Yes, by all means, let us do that. Mostly Navy and Coast Guard guys. 2 Air Force and one other Army guy. I think 3 Marines including you. ...and do I care what you and others think of me? No.

I honestly think you're the only person here to ever just straight up lie about having ever served.

Am I, make that two, to include you.

The thing that always boggles my mind is how the people who lie about having served, have no idea how easy it is to spot the second they start trying to actually discuss military matters.

Agreed. That is why you are an easy find. What is the matter, got tired of the crayons.

But by all means mate, I invite you to look only at your lack of likes in this thread.

Lack of likes? I suggest you read back through the last 50 pages.

I don't even think the russian posters like you.

The only people liked in this liberal thread are those in support of Ukraine. Ukraine will win whatever the cost.
Poor bastards don't realize Ukraine has already lost this war and is bleeding a slow death. The Ukrainian Army is about to reach 50%. That is all they have to fight for another year. Again, money, weaponry, shells, missiles, and ammo sent by other countries don't count for shit if you can't replace dead soldiers. I like how most here, and the liberal media, don't cover Ukrainian casualties and a Ukrainian shrinking Army. It is like the Biden coverup for 4 years. Is sticking to the thread topic too difficult for you? I guess so. Insulting posters is a lot more fun, isn't it? Semper Fi.

 

[San Marino]

This is the premier thread to discuss the Russian/Ukraine war. Please continue to be civil and remember that we're all adults here.

Yeah, that has been working really well. Maybe it is time for a new moderator in this thread.

 

[Rholk]

Another day of Stolen Valerino bitching about moderators not interfering when he gets called out on his bullshit.

 

[Cid]

...and there it is again. San Marino becomes the most talked about guy in this thread. Nothing to do with the Russian/Ukraine conflict. Just personal insults. Great moderation as always. God forbid anyone should talk about how Russia is doing in this conflict.

I have my settings at 40 posts per page.

This was post #21 from the top.
8 of those 21 posts come from you.
The next person had 3.

Maybe people would talk about you less if you... i dunno... shut the fuck up every now and then?

Have you ever thought of ignoring posts? I ignore yours all the time. Highly recommended.

 

[Hog-train]

Well I invite everyone over to the Veterans thread to see what the rest of us think of you. I honestly think you're the only person here to ever just straight up lie about having ever served. But I get it. Russia is at a million casualties in a war that you told us would be over 2 years and 9 months ago. And who could forget such gems as "Kiev was a feint," and "Ukraine should totally perform a massive airborne drop behind enemy lines with instructions to live off the land a-la ranger school."

The thing that always boggles my mind is how the people who lie about having served, have no idea how easy it is to spot the second they start trying to actually discuss military matters. But by all means mate, I invite you to look only at your lack of likes in this thread. I don't even think the russian posters like you.

There's a veteran's thread? Where is it?

 

[Cole train]

There's a veteran's thread? Where is it?

Literally stickied 3 threads down lol

 

[AWilder]

Well I invite everyone over to the Veterans thread to see what the rest of us think of you. I honestly think you're the only person here to ever just straight up lie about having ever served. But I get it. Russia is at a million casualties in a war that you told us would be over 2 years and 9 months ago. And who could forget such gems as "Kiev was a feint," and "Ukraine should totally perform a massive airborne drop behind enemy lines with instructions to live off the land a-la ranger school."

The thing that always boggles my mind is how the people who lie about having served, have no idea how easy it is to spot the second they start trying to actually discuss military matters. But by all means mate, I invite you to look only at your lack of likes in this thread. I don't even think the russian posters like you.

I'm pretty sure san Marino is the guy in the YouTube clips he posts. The pro-russian guy with all the click bait titles and he always looks like he's getting ready to fellate someone

 

[Hog-train]

Literally stickied 3 threads down lol

Oh haha.

 

[aerius]

The only people liked in this liberal thread are those in support of Ukraine. Ukraine will win whatever the cost.
Poor bastards don't realize Ukraine has already lost this war and is bleeding a slow death. The Ukrainian Army is about to reach 50%. That is all they have to fight for another year. Again, money, weaponry, shells, missiles, and ammo sent by other countries don't count for shit if you can't replace dead soldiers. I like how most here, and the liberal media, don't cover Ukrainian casualties and a Ukrainian shrinking Army. It is like the Biden coverup for 4 years. Is sticking to the thread topic too difficult for you? I guess so. Insulting posters is a lot more fun, isn't it? Semper Fi.

Speaking of casualties, the real numbers are starting to leak out.

Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast

Should Kyiv collapse, the Russian army will surge forward, pushing the line of contact deeper into Ukraine and peace terms will get worse

responsiblestatecraft.org

Russia appears to be able to replace its losses and still grow the size of its army. According to Mediazona and BBC’s Russian service, the Russian army appears to have suffered a total of slightly over 98,000 dead. This number only includes killed Russian soldiers identified by name and the real number is likely to be much higher. Mediazona itself estimates that the real number is about 165,000. At the same time they also do not count the losses of pro-Russian separatists, so another 20,000 needs to be added to the number, for a rough total of 120,000. This currently averages to about 3,600 dead per month. Historically, for every dead there are four wounded, so another 452,000 wounded needs to be added to the Russian count, which equates to a monthly loss of 14,400 or 18,000 total. However, the same data indicates that out of these, three quarters usually return to duty (RTD) after treatment. To break it down, Russian forces are suffering 7,200 permanent losses and 10,800 RTD per month. At the same time, Russians are recruiting 30,000 volunteers a month, plus the wounded who have recovered. This translates into growth of 24,000 soldiers every month, including RTD. Even if Russian losses are double what Mediazona was able to count, the Russian army is still expanding.

Ukraine’s total losses are hard to assess. The Jamestown Foundation estimated that Ukraine had mobilized 2 million men back in July 2023, and the number should be approaching 3 million by now. Most estimates place the Ukrainian fielded army at about 1 million men, while Zelenskyy claimed to be fielding 880,000. The official Ukrainian losses of 43,000 are unrealistic in the light of previous numbers. For a more realistic estimate, the “Antiseptic” Telegram channel has one of the few databases that compare current and prewar satellite photos of select Ukrainian cemeteries. The limited nature of cemeteries may result in undercounting; for example, the city of Kharkiv has multiple cemeteries, but only cemetery #18 was surveyed. Soldiers buried in other city cemeteries are not counted. The chart below averages out the percent of prewar population lost by locality and then compares it to the total population of Ukraine. The final estimate is about 769,000 dead, and based on historical data, likely another 769,000 wounded who will never recover enough to go back to the front.

This matches the Jamestown Foundation’s estimate. Some 1.5 million are permanent losses, another 400,000-600,000 wounded recovering in hospitals, leaving 1 million to 800,000 still in the field.

---

Casualty ratios are about what I'd expect given that Russia has way more firepower available along with technological & operational superiority. It's also consistent with Ukraine running out of men and having to use mass kidnapping to try and fill the gaps.

 

[AWilder]

Speaking of casualties, the real numbers are starting to leak out.

Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast

Should Kyiv collapse, the Russian army will surge forward, pushing the line of contact deeper into Ukraine and peace terms will get worse

responsiblestatecraft.org

Russia appears to be able to replace its losses and still grow the size of its army. According to Mediazona and BBC’s Russian service, the Russian army appears to have suffered a total of slightly over 98,000 dead. This number only includes killed Russian soldiers identified by name and the real number is likely to be much higher. Mediazona itself estimates that the real number is about 165,000. At the same time they also do not count the losses of pro-Russian separatists, so another 20,000 needs to be added to the number, for a rough total of 120,000. This currently averages to about 3,600 dead per month. Historically, for every dead there are four wounded, so another 452,000 wounded needs to be added to the Russian count, which equates to a monthly loss of 14,400 or 18,000 total. However, the same data indicates that out of these, three quarters usually return to duty (RTD) after treatment. To break it down, Russian forces are suffering 7,200 permanent losses and 10,800 RTD per month. At the same time, Russians are recruiting 30,000 volunteers a month, plus the wounded who have recovered. This translates into growth of 24,000 soldiers every month, including RTD. Even if Russian losses are double what Mediazona was able to count, the Russian army is still expanding.

Ukraine’s total losses are hard to assess. The Jamestown Foundation estimated that Ukraine had mobilized 2 million men back in July 2023, and the number should be approaching 3 million by now. Most estimates place the Ukrainian fielded army at about 1 million men, while Zelenskyy claimed to be fielding 880,000. The official Ukrainian losses of 43,000 are unrealistic in the light of previous numbers. For a more realistic estimate, the “Antiseptic” Telegram channel has one of the few databases that compare current and prewar satellite photos of select Ukrainian cemeteries. The limited nature of cemeteries may result in undercounting; for example, the city of Kharkiv has multiple cemeteries, but only cemetery #18 was surveyed. Soldiers buried in other city cemeteries are not counted. The chart below averages out the percent of prewar population lost by locality and then compares it to the total population of Ukraine. The final estimate is about 769,000 dead, and based on historical data, likely another 769,000 wounded who will never recover enough to go back to the front.

This matches the Jamestown Foundation’s estimate. Some 1.5 million are permanent losses, another 400,000-600,000 wounded recovering in hospitals, leaving 1 million to 800,000 still in the field.

---

Casualty ratios are about what I'd expect given that Russia has way more firepower available along with technological & operational superiority. It's also consistent with Ukraine running out of men and having to use mass kidnapping to try and fill the gaps.

Lmao, thanks for the laugh clown honk honk

 

[Rholk]

Lmao, thanks for the laugh clown honk honk

Shouldn't take too long before they finally take Kiev if you were to believe 'm.

Mediazona itself estimates that the real number is about 165,000

The final estimate is about 769,000 dead

Followed by

Casualty ratios are about what I'd expect given that Russia has way more firepower available along with technological & operational superiority.

At what point is someone legally retarded

 

[SandisLL]

Looks that North Korea had racked up supplies for putin. MRLS launchers.
They also had added more drones, donkeys, motorbikes, quadracycles and golf carts....
Rumoured that had get next batches of tanks: T 62 and T 90.....more guys.

So if they will be able to continue, they will continue....

They does wants all ukraine not just some provinces.
Then they will be able to deNazify Moldova.

 

[SandisLL]

Armenia is very good candidate for deNazification and incorporation in Russian Federation or to install Lukashenko No2 type ruler.
Simply due to location and other obstacles:
Azerbaijan will not help them, Iran will watch and smile, Turkey def will not help them ....Georgia currently does have pro Kremlin oriented gov, so we see huge potential for small special operation.... deNazification.

 

[San Marino]

Maybe people would talk about you less if you... i dunno... shut the fuck up every now and then?

Why are they talking about me? Why not just put me on ignore.

Have you ever thought of ignoring posts? I ignore yours all the time. Highly recommended.

You answer my posts all the time dummy. You are doing it right now. Damn, you are more stupid than I thought.

 

[Strychnine]

Yeah, that has been working really well. Maybe it is time for a new moderator in this thread.

Flaming- There are limits to the mild flaming that is allowed in the War Room.

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/wr-rules-guidelines-updated-8-3-22.3565705/[/EMBED]

 

[San Marino]

What Ukrainian forces would do in Moscow on May 9 — Svitan​

MSN

So, there it is. Zelensky is all bark and no bite. Empty threats for Moscow's May 9th parade.

* Roman Svitan, military expert, retired Colonel of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
“I doubt there will be any strikes from our side at all. Why? Just look at this morning and last night. It seems the order was given: 'don’t shoot,' he said."

From @aerius article: Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast

"The chart below averages out the percent of prewar population lost by locality and then compares it to the total population of Ukraine. The final estimate is about 769,000 dead, and based on historical data, likely another 769,000 wounded who will never recover enough to go back to the front."

This is a much higher number than what I expected. 1,538,000 killed and wounded. Ukraine and the media have done a very good job of hiding these numbers. Like I said, military aid coming in but not new soldiers.


"As of right now, Ukraine still holds cards at the negotiating table. Its army is still in the field, contesting every meter of ground. But time is running out for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has significant problems with manpower. The balance of power is shifting in Russia’s favor, and at some point, Ukrainians will start facing the collapse of the front. This outcome is more likely given the negative trend in decision making by Ukrainian political leadership. Unless they begin to conserve combat power, collapse is growing more likely. Ukraine needs a ceasefire now to gain breathing room for restoring its combat power and improving its standing at the peace negotiations."

"The Russians are in the opposite situation. Russian advantages in manpower and equipment are growing. Russia is fielding an equivalent of two new divisions a month. Battlefield conditions and growing combat power mean that they are unlikely to accept any ceasefire until final peace terms are agreed, something they have already made clear. They are also likely to stretch out the negotiation process to improve their battlefield position. Time is on their side, and unless peace can be agreed to now, they are on a path to victory which could have devastating political and economic consequences for the rest of Europe."

 

[Cid]

Attack drones strike only optical fiber manufacturer in Russia

On May 7, attack drones hit the only Russian manufacturer of optical fiber cable that is also used for FPV-drones.

gwaramedia.com

 

[Strychnine]

 

[b34stmode]

What Ukrainian forces would do in Moscow on May 9 — Svitan​

MSN

So, there it is. Zelensky is all bark and no bite. Empty threats for Moscow's May 9th parade.

* Roman Svitan, military expert, retired Colonel of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
“I doubt there will be any strikes from our side at all. Why? Just look at this morning and last night. It seems the order was given: 'don’t shoot,' he said."

From @aerius article: Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast

"The chart below averages out the percent of prewar population lost by locality and then compares it to the total population of Ukraine. The final estimate is about 769,000 dead, and based on historical data, likely another 769,000 wounded who will never recover enough to go back to the front."

This is a much higher number than what I expected. 1,538,000 killed and wounded. Ukraine and the media have done a very good job of hiding these numbers. Like I said, military aid coming in but not new soldiers.
View attachment 1094066

"As of right now, Ukraine still holds cards at the negotiating table. Its army is still in the field, contesting every meter of ground. But time is running out for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has significant problems with manpower. The balance of power is shifting in Russia’s favor, and at some point, Ukrainians will start facing the collapse of the front. This outcome is more likely given the negative trend in decision making by Ukrainian political leadership. Unless they begin to conserve combat power, collapse is growing more likely. Ukraine needs a ceasefire now to gain breathing room for restoring its combat power and improving its standing at the peace negotiations."

"The Russians are in the opposite situation. Russian advantages in manpower and equipment are growing. Russia is fielding an equivalent of two new divisions a month. Battlefield conditions and growing combat power mean that they are unlikely to accept any ceasefire until final peace terms are agreed, something they have already made clear. They are also likely to stretch out the negotiation process to improve their battlefield position. Time is on their side, and unless peace can be agreed to now, they are on a path to victory which could have devastating political and economic consequences for the rest of Europe."

Striking the Moscow Parade is a horrible idea, and wouldn't do much strategically. It would also induce a severe reaction as well. There are plenty of Ukrainians themselves that would get mad at a strike as well. Zelensky is smart. Hopefully they have massive Intelligence gathering going on and maybe can strike some high value targets a day or two after its over.

but fucking LOL at this paragraph

"The Russians are in the opposite situation. Russian advantages in manpower and equipment are growing. Russia is fielding an equivalent of two new divisions a month. Battlefield conditions and growing combat power mean that they are unlikely to accept any ceasefire until final peace terms are agreed, something they have already made clear. They are also likely to stretch out the negotiation process to improve their battlefield position. Time is on their side, and unless peace can be agreed to now, they are on a path to victory which could have devastating political and economic consequences for the rest of Europe."

Who wrote this? How exactly is time on Russia's side? What path to victory are they on? They still haven't achieved a single objective stated in their SMO. There is simply no foreseeable way they can "DENAZIFY & DE-MILITARIZE" Ukraine moving forward. "Time" is always on the defenders side.

The US just signed a huge minerals deal, as well as the US Treasury starting a "fund" to rebuild Ukraine. Things like these are "pathways" to victory for Ukraine long term. And it seems every week Putin does something to piss Trump off even more. So the bolded paragraph is some of the dumbest shit I've read in a while.

 

[Strychnine]

"No internet for you, Russia!"

- Putin