International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Deleted member 110072]

So thus far looks that Russia will continue to demand all these 4 oblastjs plus Crimea to recognize de Iure as Russian Federation. Not only just from Ukraine.

Ofc they will demand that Ukr will not join NATO ( this for mainstream plebs to sell something, with such friends you don't need enemies...Kissinger was correct ).

Most important part : de militarization.
Russia does knows that better is to allow Ukr to have symbolic military in order to get their taxpayers to spend money and listen about mythical peremoga etc dreams. Xxxx bireucrats and xxx colonels and generals will be happy, good salaries etc...military almost incapable to do anything serious etc.

Debts will increase, peremoga with mythical investments and cool real life.
Looks that from these with a bit opportunities will do all the best in their abilities to relocate somewhere.... till next war....
Maybe soon even Africa will look more perspective for long term future.

The first two do seem like they will likely be minimum demands with Russia seemingly getting the best of the conflict and pushing the Ukrainians back. The de militarisation I'm guessing will be the big sticking point, the Ukrainians will basically want the ability to build up enough defence to be a deterrent in the future if NATO membership and peace keepers won't be accepted.

Truth is those at top of Russia are immoral enough that saving lives won't enter into it, a ceasefire which doesn't give them concessions will not be accepted as it weakens there position to ask for more.

Whilst I always supported resistance to the illegal invasion I can't say I ever had much faith in the US/NATO's role being anything but using the Ukrainians as a tool for their ends and then abandoning them, Trump being so open in using the situation to pilfer the nations mineral wealth just makes it more obvious.

 

[Boxiana]

Your move then USA - this is where it gets difficult

 

[SandisLL]

The first two do seem like they will likely be minimum demands with Russia seemingly getting the best of the conflict and pushing the Ukrainians back. The de militarisation I'm guessing will be the big sticking point, the Ukrainians will basically want the ability to build up enough defence to be a deterrent in the future if NATO membership and peace keepers won't be accepted.

Truth is those at top of Russia are immoral enough that saving lives won't enter into it, a ceasefire which doesn't give them concessions will not be accepted as it weakens there position to ask for more.

Whilst I always supported resistance to the illegal invasion I can't say I ever had much faith in the US/NATO's role being anything but using the Ukrainians as a tool for their ends and then abandoning them, Trump being so open in using the situation to pilfer the nations mineral wealth just makes it more obvious.

West ofc actually for them it isn't even proxy war like Lavrov office crying.
It is even worse: Russia is yelling, barking etc, pressing ukr and there episodocally west decides to supply something just a bit.... cos this is easier and doesn't makes big sense at all.

Better if part of Ukr will be Grey resin buffer ofc.
Nothing more they doesn't want.


As for territorial demands : these Patrusehv, Lavrov and Putin are rich 72-73-74 y.o former Communists. Not likely they are worried about anything else than get their names in history ....like big achievements....

There yet aren't signs that they might agree lesser than all these 4 oblastjs plus ofc Crimea... even this as bare minimum till next war in Ukraine.

 

[PEB]

Putin doesn't use AI for his speeches.
He is former KGB ( FSB ) director. His English and German language skills really are very good.

While he is looking more and more senile. The same flowchart and bla bla type stuff plus some signs of paranoia...like someone maybe will attack him etc.

I think you missed my point they hit the Kremlin just days before by a drone. He was not interested in speaking at the Kremlin. He did not want to chance it.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

The first two do seem like they will likely be minimum demands with Russia seemingly getting the best of the conflict and pushing the Ukrainians back. The de militarisation I'm guessing will be the big sticking point, the Ukrainians will basically want the ability to build up enough defence to be a deterrent in the future if NATO membership and peace keepers won't be accepted.

Truth is those at top of Russia are immoral enough that saving lives won't enter into it, a ceasefire which doesn't give them concessions will not be accepted as it weakens there position to ask for more.

Whilst I always supported resistance to the illegal invasion I can't say I ever had much faith in the US/NATO's role being anything but using the Ukrainians as a tool for their ends and then abandoning them, Trump being so open in using the situation to pilfer the nations mineral wealth just makes it more obvious.

And with this demand it will make it impossible for Russia to stop the war as UKR isnt going to give up cities like Odessa and Zaporizia and millions more peoples lives in those Regions to let Russian soldiers just walk in and take over. And that's just the start of Putlers demands....truth is he can never stop this war until he is stopped.

 

[SandisLL]

I think you missed my point they hit the Kremlin just days before by a drone. He was not interested in speaking at the Kremlin. He did not want to chance it.

Of drone had hit Moscow central area, this almost by 99% means that it had been launched from....Russia. more likely from...Moscow.

Then Putin now is in paranoia mode and had ordered FSB to catch diversants, saboteurs and other kind of enemies in Moscow and Moscow oblastj.

 

[SandisLL]

They are....increasing supplies of ammo, weapons and transport to dumbass area....A lot.

Looks that they are lurking everywhere to taste where easier will be to move forward.

Jeeps they does have from USSR era UAZ jeeps and buhankas minivens, till more modern stuff, also western civilian jeeps models. Quadracycles mainly are chinesse models.
Trucks: both military and civilian commercial models.
Tractors from USSR era stuff till chinesse tractors.
Donkeys.

APCs : from BTR 50 ( these are mainly as transport tool but they are more durable in mud than any BTR 60, 70, 80 etc .... literally like MT LB tracked soviet era stuff they are good for transport).
Tanks: T 72 upgraded in 1994-2018 th versions, also T 90....
They really also does have North Korean self propelled howitzers in some areas....and also T55 Tanks....

 

[Rational Poster]

They are....increasing supplies of ammo, weapons and transport to dumbass area....A lot.

Looks that they are lurking everywhere to taste where easier will be to move forward.

Jeeps they does have from USSR era UAZ jeeps and buhankas minivens, till more modern stuff, also western civilian jeeps models. Quadracycles mainly are chinesse models.
Trucks: both military and civilian commercial models.
Tractors from USSR era stuff till chinesse tractors.
Donkeys.

APCs : from BTR 50 ( these are mainly as transport tool but they are more durable in mud than any BTR 60, 70, 80 etc .... literally like MT LB tracked soviet era stuff they are good for transport).
Tanks: T 72 upgraded in 1994-2018 th versions, also T 90....
They really also does have North Korean self propelled howitzers in some areas....and also T55 Tanks....

T-80 nearing extinction lmao

 

[SandisLL]

T-80 nearing extinction lmao

Most likely they doesn't have enough T 80 in usable condition...

 

[Vergilius]

Listening to Putin today, it sounds like there is actually a chance for at least a temporary ceasefire. Of course, he kind of has to say that if he wants to stay on Trump's good side, but his demands didn't sound as maximalist to me as they normally do (he just basically said: we need to know what happens in Kursk and how the ceasefire is to be enforced across the vast front line). There is, of course, a great deal of distance between a ceasefire and a peace agreement, but there's a good chance that if a ceasefire does take effect that Putin would think it risky popularity-wise to be the one breaking it.

He also looked pretty old and worn down, maybe he's tired of the whole thing and sees this as the last chance to bring Russia back to the big table of international relations while he's still at the helm.

 

[curryjunkie]

The first two do seem like they will likely be minimum demands with Russia seemingly getting the best of the conflict and pushing the Ukrainians back. The de militarisation I'm guessing will be the big sticking point, the Ukrainians will basically want the ability to build up enough defence to be a deterrent in the future if NATO membership and peace keepers won't be accepted.

Truth is those at top of Russia are immoral enough that saving lives won't enter into it, a ceasefire which doesn't give them concessions will not be accepted as it weakens there position to ask for more.

Whilst I always supported resistance to the illegal invasion I can't say I ever had much faith in the US/NATO's role being anything but using the Ukrainians as a tool for their ends and then abandoning them, Trump being so open in using the situation to pilfer the nations mineral wealth just makes it more obvious.

it may have been the USA's role to use ukraine, i think the europeans have a much different idea about it.

 

[Boxiana]

Listening to Putin today, it sounds like there is actually a chance for at least a temporary ceasefire. Of course, he kind of has to say that if he wants to stay on Trump's good side, but his demands didn't sound as maximalist to me as they normally do (he just basically said: we need to know what happens in Kursk and how the ceasefire is to be enforced across the vast front line). There is, of course, a great deal of distance between a ceasefire and a peace agreement, but there's a good chance that if a ceasefire does take effect that Putin would think it risky popularity-wise to be the one breaking it.

He also looked pretty old and worn down, maybe he's tired of the whole thing and sees this as the last chance to bring Russia back to the big table of international relations while he's still at the helm.

This is the kind of big, difficult strategic decision that Putin has historically been bad at making - can see this causing him a lot of stress.

 

[San Marino]

Listening to Putin today, it sounds like there is actually a chance for at least a temporary ceasefire.

Putin agrees in 'principle' only. Which means he is not accepting the ceasefire until conditions are right for Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that he agrees in principle with a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, but the terms need to be worked out, and he emphasized that it should pave the way to lasting peace.

MSN

This continues to be a 'special military operation' in Ukraine by Russia. That means that roughly only 20% of the Russian military capability has been used for this conflict. A full-scale declaration of war by Russia into Ukraine would paint a much different picture. Also, Ukraine getting money, intelligence and weaponry does not count for much when what it really needs is bodies to fight this war. That, it won't get from the US or Europe.

Comparison of the military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine as of 2025
Estimated available manpower: Russia = 69, 002,197 / Ukraine = 18,187,531
Active soldiers: Russia = 1,320,000 / Ukraine = 900,000
Reserve forces: Russia = 2,000,000 / Ukraine = 1,200,000

Russia vs Ukraine military comparison 2025| Statista

Ukraine's military capabilities were lower than Russia's for most indicators. For example, Ukraine's Army had 420,000 less active soldiers than Russia's.

www.statista.com

 

[b-hop]

And they're using mostly russian minorities, who are not actually ethnically russians. Anyone who thinks there's a big political turmoil to the average russian is deeply mistaken.

Speaking about realpolitik, he's losing men who don't cause any particular political grievance at the same time that is conquering ukrainian territory wich means to end the conflit (as i predicted) is not as simple as asking him, Ukraine is going to have conceive a lot more since from a political aspect Putin is barely losing anything meaningful.

 

[Badr Hari]

 

[Rational Poster]

Putin agrees in 'principle' only. Which means he is not accepting the ceasefire until conditions are right for Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that he agrees in principle with a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, but the terms need to be worked out, and he emphasized that it should pave the way to lasting peace.

MSN

This continues to be a 'special military operation' in Ukraine by Russia. That means that roughly only 20% of the Russian military capability has been used for this conflict. A full-scale declaration of war by Russia into Ukraine would paint a much different picture. Also, Ukraine getting money, intelligence and weaponry does not count for much when what it really needs is bodies to fight this war. That, it won't get from the US or Europe.

Comparison of the military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine as of 2025
Estimated available manpower: Russia = 69, 002,197 / Ukraine = 18,187,531
Active soldiers: Russia = 1,320,000 / Ukraine = 900,000
Reserve forces: Russia = 2,000,000 / Ukraine = 1,200,000

Russia vs Ukraine military comparison 2025| Statista

Ukraine's military capabilities were lower than Russia's for most indicators. For example, Ukraine's Army had 420,000 less active soldiers than Russia's.

www.statista.com

So... based on your numbers. Ukraine's current manpower is enough to sustain another 135 years of conflict assuming no Ukrainian is ever born again from this point in time.

Even at double the current rate of casualties, they still have 69 years of manpower even if no Ukrainians reproduce.

 

[Strychnine]

Humvee takes THREE direct drone hits, protects the crew, and still makes it back to base.

 

[San Marino]

So... based on your numbers. Ukraine's current manpower is enough to sustain another 135 years of conflict assuming no Ukrainian is ever born again from this point in time.

Even at double the current rate of casualties, they still have 69 years of manpower even if no Ukrainians reproduce.

45 years is the correct answer.
Russian babies will also be born during that period.
Factor in the number of Ukrainians who are deserting the battlefield or leaving the country all together and things will move faster. This number has been increasing by the year.

Like I said before, Trump will not stop this war and neither will Europe.
Two things will happen, and I don't know which will come first:
. Ukraine gets tired of losing men to this war.
. Putin gets satisfied with the amount of territory he has taken.

Of course, if Russia declares war (by their constitution) on Ukraine and brings on the draft, things will come to an end much faster. 'Special Military Operation' = no Russian draft.

You can tell by the number of people contributing to this thread that the interest in the conflict has declined. Most people here in the US, and much of the world, don't care if the whole of Ukraine becomes part of Russia. Their concern is on Iran having nuclear weapons and threatening the whole world.

Also, like I mentioned before, I don't think Putin is interested in taking the whole of Ukraine. Certainly not interested in invading western Europe.

 

[Rational Poster]

45 years is the correct answer.
Russian babies will also be born during that period.
Factor in the number of Ukrainians who are deserting the battlefield or leaving the country all together and things will move faster. This number has been increasing by the year.

Like I said before, Trump will not stop this war and neither will Europe.
Two things will happen, and I don't know which will come first:
. Ukraine gets tired of losing men to this war.
. Putin gets satisfied with the amount of territory he has taken.

Of course, if Russia declares war (by their constitution) on Ukraine and brings on the draft, things will come to an end much faster. 'Special Military Operation' = no Russian draft.

You can tell by the number of people contributing to this thread that the interest in the conflict has declined. Most people here in the US, and much of the world, don't care if the whole of Ukraine becomes part of Russia. Their concern is on Iran having nuclear weapons and threatening the whole world.

Also, like I mentioned before, I don't think Putin is interested in taking the whole of Ukraine. Certainly not interested in invading western Europe.

No actually the rate of casualty for Ukraine is ~133,000 per year, ~400,000 in total. MIA (desertions) are counted as casualties. You don't have to factor that in, it's already factored in the total casualties.

Even if you wanted to be really disingenuous and double the rate of casualties, that's 69 years.

Russia cannot support more troops in theater as they're already suffering catastrophic levels of equipment attrition with 600,000 deployed in Ukraine.

 

[b-hop]

No actually the rate of casualty for Ukraine is ~133,000 per year, ~400,000 in total. MIA (desertions) are counted as casualties. You don't have to factor that in, it's already factored in the total casualties.

Even if you wanted to be really disingenuous and double the rate of casualties, that's 69 years.

Russia cannot support more troops in theater as they're already suffering catastrophic levels of equipment attrition with 600,000 deployed in Ukraine.

"Russia cannot" and they didn't even took the cease fire to buy the supposebly time . Already 3 years since they could not, everyday now.