International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Osculater]

Another video of a Russian soldier shooting his comrade. Very different attitude from our "no man left behind" mindset. Theirs is like "In Soviet Russia, comrade kills you! Alcohol is for drinking, not disinfecting wounds."

Let them cook....

 

[SandisLL]

Ofc most likely any peace will be just till next war....till end...maybe will be multiple wars etc ...in long row.

Most sneaky stuff are de Miltarization requirements. Most likely both pro Kremlin oriented US dems and reps ( they both actually loves Kremlin a lot in depth ) will agree with such pressure on Ukr.

So Ukr will get incapable military with symbolic capability and still as place where Ukr establishment might continue to talk loud talks and waste taxpayers money on symbolic, expensive and useless peaces of shit... Generals etc too will be happy, salaries paid, useless military ruled and supervised by west and Russia in order to keep it in laughable and expensive clown show.

If Ukr will not get reality that they does not have any friends and never will have....then maybe at least for individuals life will be easier... doesn't matter where.

Interestingly how much ppl will emigrate from dreamland with government, companies and individual living in debts and empty dreams after this war will end?

Most likely next Brain drain will happen for a reason.

 

[PEB]

Russia CAN'T stop without ALL of Ukraine or Putin's screwed.

Ryan is paid by Newsmax so he walks on eggshells.

 

[aerius]

Why is that exactly?

Short version is most of the Russians who matter believe that Russia has already sacrificed too much in the war to settle for anything other than total victory and the complete destruction of the Ukraine. They believe that a ceasefire or peace agreement now will simply result in the war restarting in a few years with a fully rearmed Ukraine, and then they'll have to waste even more lives to finish the war. That's not acceptable to them so anyone trying for a premature peace will get tossed out a window or come down with a case of polonium poisoning.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

At a snails pace though. Wouldnt society benefit more by having less of its young men wiped out?

Yep at this pace Russia will collapse at some point. It costs about a billion dollars a day Russia to have their minimal gains with life and equipment. But with russian mentality they will move forward.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Short version is most of the Russians who matter believe that Russia has already sacrificed too much in the war to settle for anything other than total victory and the complete destruction of the Ukraine. They believe that a ceasefire or peace agreement now will simply result in the war restarting in a few years with a fully rearmed Ukraine, and then they'll have to waste even more lives to finish the war. That's not acceptable to them so anyone trying for a premature peace will get tossed out a window or come down with a case of polonium poisoning.

And at their current pace how long do you think it will take Russia to destroy all of UKR.

 

[aerius]

And at their current pace how long do you think it will take Russia to destroy all of UKR.

No one knows, and anyone who claims to know is full of shit. The only ones who can make a reasonable guess are the senior members of the Ukrainian General Staff, and those guys ain't talking.

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

Yep at this pace Russia will collapse at some point. It costs about a billion dollars a day Russia to have their minimal gains with life and equipment. But with russian mentality they will move forward.

Pitin told that Special operation is going as had been planned and might be continued.
Propagandists and trolls yelling: we will liberate russian land from occupation forces, okraine should be deMilitarized and deNazified, special operation should continue.

Looks that generals and ministries are telling Putin that everything is OK, just more funding needed to continue Putin's special operation.

 

[Badr Hari]

China recently interested to hear the other half of the conflict:

 

[curryjunkie]

 

[San Marino]

Wouldn't society benefit more by having less of its young men wiped out?

Yes, but wars have always been part of history and human behavior. When diplomacy fails.

 

[San Marino]

Makes him look weak, big no no in Russia.

I don't know. Russians are also tired of this conflict and the death inflicted on their young men.
Putin knows the implications of taking the whole of Ukraine. He still wants Russia to be seen as a diplomatic superpower in the west. Plus, western Ukraine is extremely pro-western, and he would run into twice the attrition and disfavor he is facing now. Remember, this is not a full-scale war for Russia, only a special military operation. Putin wants to keep it that way. He does not want to bring the draft into effect. I personally think Ukraine has lost this conflict as far as eastern Ukraine is concerned. Kiev and western Ukraine will remain intact.

 

[San Marino]

And at their current pace how long do you think it will take Russia to destroy all of UKR.

Russia does not want to destroy all of Ukraine. Check post #13,933 above. Russia has 20% of eastern Ukraine. They may go for 30%. They could also stop where they are at now. They have achieved one of their primary goals which was to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. If Russia decides to make this a full-scale war saying Ukraine is invading and attacking Russia, the draft will be brought into effect and millions of Russians will be called to fight in Ukraine. Ukraine cannot survive that. It is currently a special military operation for the Russian military.

 

[San Marino]

Pentagon Received Faulty Armor Plates from Russia-Owned US Plant​

MSN

* Plus, U.S. Army shrinks to its lowest number since before Worl War II as it struggles to find recruits.

 

[Kassitus]

Short version is most of the Russians who matter believe that Russia has already sacrificed too much in the war to settle for anything other than total victory and the complete destruction of the Ukraine. They believe that a ceasefire or peace agreement now will simply result in the war restarting in a few years with a fully rearmed Ukraine, and then they'll have to waste even more lives to finish the war. That's not acceptable to them so anyone trying for a premature peace will get tossed out a window or come down with a case of polonium poisoning.

It seems like there's not really a path forward though, at this pace it will take them 20 years to overrun Ukraine.

 

[aerius]

It seems like there's not really a path forward though, at this pace it will take them 20 years to overrun Ukraine.

The same was said during WW1 in 1917 to early 1918. We need to understand that this is NOT a war of maneuver that the Western world has become accustomed to since WW2, this is a war of attrition where taking land is secondary to destroying the enemy's forces. Wars of attrition play out differently than we're used to, they generally become stagnant for long periods of time and look like stalemates, but once one side is critically weakened the collapse happens relatively quickly. Once again, see WW1.

The following article from the UK's Royal United Services Institute explains the above in more detail.

The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine

If the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its capacity to wage a protracted war and to pursue a strategy focused on attrition rather than manoeuvre.

rusi.org

 

[Rational Poster]

The same was said during WW1 in 1917 to early 1918. We need to understand that this is NOT a war of maneuver that the Western world has become accustomed to since WW2, this is a war of attrition where taking land is secondary to destroying the enemy's forces. Wars of attrition play out differently than we're used to, they generally become stagnant for long periods of time and look like stalemates, but once one side is critically weakened the collapse happens relatively quickly. Once again, see WW1.

The following article from the UK's Royal United Services Institute explains the above in more detail.

The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine

If the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its capacity to wage a protracted war and to pursue a strategy focused on attrition rather than manoeuvre.

rusi.org

I mean then in that context, we just have to keep doing what we're doing and Russia will fold like a lawn chair eventually. They have less men deployed to the front and less industrial capacity than just a percent of the western world, let alone all of it.

There's no possible way on earth they can compete with the combined western arms manufacturing. You can observe on civilian satellite imagery the depletion of their vehicle depots.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[San Marino]

It seems like there's not really a path forward though, at this pace it will take them 20 years to overrun Ukraine.

Well, Trump has been a disappointment in Ukraine and Israel.
He did not finish the Ukrainian conflict in a day like he originally said and won't finish it in 3 more months.
He did not get all the hostages back from Hamas and 'all hell' did not break loose.
In other words, I don't think Trump is going to do shit to stop the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin did not accept the peace deal the US was offering and will continue to fight. I believe Putin alone will tell the US and Ukraine when he is really ready to end this conflict. Russia is currently winning. Russia's expanding arms production has been linked to its managed economy. The arms industry of Russia is a strategically important sector and a large employer in the Russian Federation. It employs approximately 3.5 million people nationwide and accounts for 20% of all manufacturing jobs in Russia. Total defense spending in Russia reached 7.5% of GDP in 2023. Russia is building anywhere from 500 to 600 new tanks a year. As of 2024, Russia produces about 3 million artillery shells a year, nearly three times the quantity from the US and Europe. So, the Russian military industrial complex is doing just fine.

Inside Russia’s 2024 military-industrial complex

With the understanding that the Russo-Ukrainian War has transitioned into a protracted phase and that the Russian army's command has adopted a war of attrition strategy, the capabilities of the Russian Military Industrial Complex (MIC) have become one of the central issues among others that...

euro-sd.com

Russia has millions of trained soldiers in waiting to be called in case of a full-scale war. From 'special military operation' to full scale defense (war) of Russia against an invading and attacking Ukraine. This is why I don't understand why Ukraine would risk a drone strike into Moscow or occupy Russian land. Ukraine, the United States and Europe cannot sustain Ukraine for another 3 years of conflict. Specially manpower to fight in the Ukrainian Army. In many ways the same situation the South faced when fighting the North during the American Civil War. The North had more soldiers and a solid military industrial complex. The South did have the better officers. Russia destroyed Napolean's French Army, and the Soviets destroyed Hitler's German Army.