As had been expected. Mike always at first will care about Israel, after this about GOP MAGA ....Not a good sign...
Speaker Johnson removes chair of powerful House Intelligence Committee
House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday removed the GOP chairman of the powerful House Intelligence Committee, who was a vocal supporter of assistance for Ukraine and held other views that put him at odds with President-elect Donald Trump. Johnson told reporters late Wednesday that Rep. Mike...www.yahoo.com
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International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15
- Thread starter Strychnine
- Start date
Germany will have elections next month.
All supposed aid Ukr will definitely get for 2025 th most likely will be these approx 4 b EUR approwed in December 2024 th.
Cos disputes about budget and up coming elections Olaf doesn't agree to sign additional ~3 b 3UR bills for Ukr.....
How ukr will use IRIS-T if Germany will not supply more missiles on top of scheduled deliveries¿
In minimum configuration IRIS-T battery does have 3 launchers, 1 load for launcher is 8 missiles.
Might be 4 or 6 launchers cos IRIS-T does support so called parralel linking....
If rumoured talks that Germany will supply 50, later told that maybe additionally + 60 missiles ....then better if it was joke from nerds ....
If for 1 full cycle (《¤》) in minimum configuration 1 IRIS-T battery should have 24 missiles....ready to be used.
I just might hope that such superinfo is fake BS....otherwise very bad for Ukr..
All supposed aid Ukr will definitely get for 2025 th most likely will be these approx 4 b EUR approwed in December 2024 th.
Cos disputes about budget and up coming elections Olaf doesn't agree to sign additional ~3 b 3UR bills for Ukr.....
How ukr will use IRIS-T if Germany will not supply more missiles on top of scheduled deliveries¿
In minimum configuration IRIS-T battery does have 3 launchers, 1 load for launcher is 8 missiles.
Might be 4 or 6 launchers cos IRIS-T does support so called parralel linking....
If rumoured talks that Germany will supply 50, later told that maybe additionally + 60 missiles ....then better if it was joke from nerds ....
If for 1 full cycle (《¤》) in minimum configuration 1 IRIS-T battery should have 24 missiles....ready to be used.
I just might hope that such superinfo is fake BS....otherwise very bad for Ukr..
There also is realpolitik that europe isn't kurds No2 , No3 or other kind of dreamers...unlike Ukr or U.S or Russia might dream.
Ofc russians and ukrainians are living in their own dreamland.
IRIS-T and NASAMS are used also as 2 nd layer air defense assets together with longer range air defense assets..ofc after this SHORAD type stuff too and Ukr never will be priority here....
So most usable thing for Ukr today is to tell Macron that they will immediately pay €. They does have at least today.
Ofc there is question what kind of missiles France will allow to export and supply.
While if about bombs looks that France will supply scheduled stuff all 2025 th....
With SAM missiles situation is high price and not likely they will deplete stockpiles....so as bare minimum funding for replacement should be on the table.
Latest versions of missiles for SAMP-T aren't worse than Patriot. In a lot of cases cheaper short range missiles too are usable.
Ofc russians and ukrainians are living in their own dreamland.
IRIS-T and NASAMS are used also as 2 nd layer air defense assets together with longer range air defense assets..ofc after this SHORAD type stuff too and Ukr never will be priority here....
So most usable thing for Ukr today is to tell Macron that they will immediately pay €. They does have at least today.
Ofc there is question what kind of missiles France will allow to export and supply.
While if about bombs looks that France will supply scheduled stuff all 2025 th....
With SAM missiles situation is high price and not likely they will deplete stockpiles....so as bare minimum funding for replacement should be on the table.
Latest versions of missiles for SAMP-T aren't worse than Patriot. In a lot of cases cheaper short range missiles too are usable.
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Putin does think that Russia will keep territories they will manage to capture physically. Forever.
One reason is cos they can't afford to cool down economy too quickly, for example to lay off large number of contract soldiers. Cos then they will be angry, money hungry and not statisfied with lower salaries in civilian sector....
Therefore easiest solution after ceasefire will be to declare that there is huge risk to have ukrainian attack, to tell duma that there a lot of money immediately should be allocated for fortifications construction.
One reason is cos they can't afford to cool down economy too quickly, for example to lay off large number of contract soldiers. Cos then they will be angry, money hungry and not statisfied with lower salaries in civilian sector....
Therefore easiest solution after ceasefire will be to declare that there is huge risk to have ukrainian attack, to tell duma that there a lot of money immediately should be allocated for fortifications construction.
If about these losses ukr are guessing and counting, not likely russian elite does have any interest.
While russians usually are calling " mercenaries in ukraine " etc, they does use a lot of foreigners for small special operation. To work for russia.
Pitin, patrushev and lavrov are very rich and old, they doesn't cares about inflation efc noise....
Medvedev is normal only when doesn't use vodka, so for putin enough is to offer vodka and medvedev will be happy.
While russians usually are calling " mercenaries in ukraine " etc, they does use a lot of foreigners for small special operation. To work for russia.
Pitin, patrushev and lavrov are very rich and old, they doesn't cares about inflation efc noise....
Medvedev is normal only when doesn't use vodka, so for putin enough is to offer vodka and medvedev will be happy.
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Rumour on the block is that belorussia might join and launch an attack
Some words about france and poland blocking border but we will see
Some words about france and poland blocking border but we will see
Belorussia mainly does have conscripts military...
Most loyal pros and more trustable KGB guys Lukashenko will keep in Minsk....definitely.
I think more realistic risk from Belarus is that Lukashenko might increase supplies for russia in order to be used by russia in Donbas area ....
It is relatively simple, Lukashenko already had supplied some batches with tanks and ammunition since 2022 th.
Belarus does have at least 36 Thocka U launchers and should have some 300-600 missiles for them.
Belarus MIC is capable to repair and upgrade USSR era radars and radio stations ...
Also to refubrish old 122 mm missiles for Grad MRLS....
They most likely are capable to deliver maybe 50000 such missiles.
Arty and mortars ammo at least 1.5 m, in worst case maybe even 2.5m units.
152 mm, 122 mm, 100 mm ammo and ammo for 120 mm mortars....plus some batches with 125 mm ammo units for tanks ....
Most loyal pros and more trustable KGB guys Lukashenko will keep in Minsk....definitely.
I think more realistic risk from Belarus is that Lukashenko might increase supplies for russia in order to be used by russia in Donbas area ....
It is relatively simple, Lukashenko already had supplied some batches with tanks and ammunition since 2022 th.
Belarus does have at least 36 Thocka U launchers and should have some 300-600 missiles for them.
Belarus MIC is capable to repair and upgrade USSR era radars and radio stations ...
Also to refubrish old 122 mm missiles for Grad MRLS....
They most likely are capable to deliver maybe 50000 such missiles.
Arty and mortars ammo at least 1.5 m, in worst case maybe even 2.5m units.
152 mm, 122 mm, 100 mm ammo and ammo for 120 mm mortars....plus some batches with 125 mm ammo units for tanks ....
If we will see more usage of AK 47 and stuff using 7.62*39 ammo then most likely somewhere again some old stockpiles will be opened.
I always wondered about laugh type " they does use AK 47 "..like about laugh on Mosin rifle.
Ammunition and magazines for weapons using 7.62*39 had been produced more than 5.45*39 stuff and for a reason. Like with 7.62*54 ammo.
7.62*39 was ammo not only for AKM 47 type stuff...also for light machine guns...so had been continued to manufacture even after USSR had switched to 5.45*39 for general purpose assault rifles....
7.62*54 had been produced damn a lot since 1910 ies...it is ammo usable for Maxim, other types of machine guns, not only Mosin rifles and manufaturing continues today...so a lot of such ammo....
I always wondered about laugh type " they does use AK 47 "..like about laugh on Mosin rifle.
Ammunition and magazines for weapons using 7.62*39 had been produced more than 5.45*39 stuff and for a reason. Like with 7.62*54 ammo.
7.62*39 was ammo not only for AKM 47 type stuff...also for light machine guns...so had been continued to manufacture even after USSR had switched to 5.45*39 for general purpose assault rifles....
7.62*54 had been produced damn a lot since 1910 ies...it is ammo usable for Maxim, other types of machine guns, not only Mosin rifles and manufaturing continues today...so a lot of such ammo....
So if to talk how usable might be old ammo...
Ammo isn't missiles....
cartridges for Nagant 7.62*38 and 7.62*54 are nasty thing exactly because IF batch had good manufacturing quality and package quality...plus good storage conditions...then cartridge might work with a glance even 50 years after had been manufactured. Sometimes even today appeared in working condition cartridges manufactured before World War II.
Ammo isn't missiles....
cartridges for Nagant 7.62*38 and 7.62*54 are nasty thing exactly because IF batch had good manufacturing quality and package quality...plus good storage conditions...then cartridge might work with a glance even 50 years after had been manufactured. Sometimes even today appeared in working condition cartridges manufactured before World War II.
122 mm ammo for soviet howitzers.
Despite usually is assumed that real shelf storage time might be 35 years....
Usually for shell and " load " 40 years storage in good conditions is not problem at all.
Problems might create primers , fuses / detonators....while they might be changed with new ones.
Shell if TNT used as ex plus " gunpowder " for bang usually will work even after 40 years storage in good conditions. ( normal humidity, temperature regime in warehouse etc requirements ).
Despite usually is assumed that real shelf storage time might be 35 years....
Usually for shell and " load " 40 years storage in good conditions is not problem at all.
Problems might create primers , fuses / detonators....while they might be changed with new ones.
Shell if TNT used as ex plus " gunpowder " for bang usually will work even after 40 years storage in good conditions. ( normal humidity, temperature regime in warehouse etc requirements ).
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Ukraine somewhat get info where what stuff is stored. Maybe had bribed someone in russia or does have spies in Voronez oblastj.
Then they most likely had sent diversants or managed to hire saboteurs in Voronez oblastj.
Now one from fuel storages does have giant fire in 4 very large reserviours.
Crying is mainly cos looks that in these had been stored aviation kerosene and in some reserviours lubricants, aka synthetic motor oils....expensive stuff.
Then they most likely had sent diversants or managed to hire saboteurs in Voronez oblastj.
Now one from fuel storages does have giant fire in 4 very large reserviours.
Crying is mainly cos looks that in these had been stored aviation kerosene and in some reserviours lubricants, aka synthetic motor oils....expensive stuff.
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They survived after a collapse just over 100 years ago and survived after their last collapse in 1989. They will survive their nest one also but it depends on what happens after is the question. Putin has no choice but to collapse Russia as Russia has a demented mentality. They will lie and never stop lying even they know they are lying and everyone knows they are lying. Putin is in too deep to stop the war militarily and financially and there is no exit ramp for him. You came out from under your rock when Trump got elected thinking Trump will shake hands with Putin and hand him over UKR in the name of "peace" but I think you are going to be disappointed.
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Against Northern Ukraine? I don't think so. Why have they waited this long? Might as well send those troops to fight in the Eastern region.
Why would France block its border?
This conflict will be over in another 3 months once Trump takes over next Monday. Trump has done more in 1 month than Biden has done in 4 years (and Trump has not even taken office yet).
. Kamala Harris will be President? No.
. Russia will lose this conflict? No.
. Putin will launch nuclear missiles? No.
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Indeed.
There is always an exit ramp. Putin has not achieved his goals in Ukraine. Trump and the EU care more about Russia than they do Ukraine. Russia does have a lot of nuclear weapons which will always give it a bargaining strategy. Ukraine has already lost this conflict. It brings nothing to the table. It is now a question of who will help Ukraine rebuild the country. Biden did say that a minor Russian incursion into Ukraine would be fine by him. Ukraine did insist on NATO membership. Neither this conflict nor the conflict in Israel would have happened under a Trump watch. Part of the Biden legacy: 400,000 dead Ukrainians.
* I don't care either way if I win or lose our bet. Won and lost bets before. I've been right and I've been wrong in the past. Life goes on.
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Belarus waited because they actually dont want to get involved since their military is absolute ass and they know it.
Conserning second point i meant french/polish will go and hang around in ukraine/belarus border.But this is all just a rumour online, nothing confirmed nor proven
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Actually Russia has lost this conflict. Do you think Russia will be in better shape after this war? Russia has taken themselves out of civilized society and will pay the price long term for their super special military operation. Log term UKR will be in EU and likely NATO.
Putin needs both refineries in Belarus working smoothly and without problems. Also Lukashenko already is helping with weapons and ammunition supplies...
Poland not likely will agree to deploy something alone....cos there are nice Banderomobiles in Ukraine and Bandera monuments...
Also Duda and Tusk & their MoD all had confirmed repeatedly that Poland will not continue to deplete stockpiles and while might supply something then only after they will already get replacement ...not in form of empty promises.... real physical stuff ....
Macron maybe even might sign deployment order, If there had not been some problems: if they will install, then ofc together with air def assets and for this additional financing should be provided...
This means they will need to resubmit and approve next def budget version.... will Macron attempt to press senate to approwe this or no, I don't know.
He might relatively easily for example sign order to deplete stockpiles and send some batches with missiles to Ukr .. .
However if troops will be deployed MoD will insist that they need to have air defense assets with SUFFICIENT supply of missiles....these are expensive....
Poland not likely will agree to deploy something alone....cos there are nice Banderomobiles in Ukraine and Bandera monuments...
Also Duda and Tusk & their MoD all had confirmed repeatedly that Poland will not continue to deplete stockpiles and while might supply something then only after they will already get replacement ...not in form of empty promises.... real physical stuff ....
Macron maybe even might sign deployment order, If there had not been some problems: if they will install, then ofc together with air def assets and for this additional financing should be provided...
This means they will need to resubmit and approve next def budget version.... will Macron attempt to press senate to approwe this or no, I don't know.
He might relatively easily for example sign order to deplete stockpiles and send some batches with missiles to Ukr .. .
However if troops will be deployed MoD will insist that they need to have air defense assets with SUFFICIENT supply of missiles....these are expensive....
Not likely Ukr will be in EU or NATO.
While Putin really had lost : BICs are milking matushka and pressing their rules, accumulating wealth and stockpiles reserves and continued to get investments...win win for BIC ....and Co ( without russia ofc ).
Putin even had managed to expand NATO and to boost up def budgets in xx countries....
Jesus, how smart was Putin and his friends.
Additionally scary reality is that IF russia didn't had invaded, today ukr had different rada and another president....
Cos huelensky administration were mainly populists.
A lot of talks and little walk...
Even deMilitarization had continued , ofc covered with empty PR talks.....
First thing about " bad west " is designed cos russians and ukr were and are living in dreams.
Zelensky administration 2019-2022 didn't managed even to increase number of main battle tanks in working condition ( even at least on papers, LoL).
Highly touted Hrim missile and Vilkha MRLS thus far appeared empty PR and for parades...
Even didn't had managed to produce gunpowder and even 122 mm Grad clones missiles....
Bad west ¿ Zelensky cried in autumn 2021 th that west doesn't agree to sell them heavy weaponary.
Literally he was correct here and Ukr was lower tier than Morocco for west.
OK, and then you dream to get dreams after this?
Instead to manufacture weapons and maybe to stop dreaming ....maybe to purchase something in other countries not from west....
At least to establish gunpowder production, cartridges production, cheap mines, cheap mortars etc...enough resoursces and time they had, also enough cheap and skilled workforce, a lot of rooms earlier used for manufacturing... damn a lot....
Some things they managed to produce: Stugna ATGM and a bit these Neptune missiles...
Zelensky administration 2019-2022 didn't managed even to increase number of main battle tanks in working condition ( even at least on papers, LoL).
Highly touted Hrim missile and Vilkha MRLS thus far appeared empty PR and for parades...
Even didn't had managed to produce gunpowder and even 122 mm Grad clones missiles....
Bad west ¿ Zelensky cried in autumn 2021 th that west doesn't agree to sell them heavy weaponary.
Literally he was correct here and Ukr was lower tier than Morocco for west.
OK, and then you dream to get dreams after this?
Instead to manufacture weapons and maybe to stop dreaming ....maybe to purchase something in other countries not from west....
At least to establish gunpowder production, cartridges production, cheap mines, cheap mortars etc...enough resoursces and time they had, also enough cheap and skilled workforce, a lot of rooms earlier used for manufacturing... damn a lot....
Some things they managed to produce: Stugna ATGM and a bit these Neptune missiles...
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