International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Hog-train]

After it was attacked by Russia in 2014, Ukraine increasingly sought NATO membership. Ukraine joined NATO's Partnership for Peace in 1994 and the NATO-Ukraine Commission in 1997, then agreed to the NATO-Ukraine Action Plan in 2002 and entered into NATO's Intensified Dialogue program in 2005.

Uhmm yea. They sought NATO membership AFTER they were attacked and had Crimea taken over. Why is that a surprise. And then the West rebuffed them.

You're the idiot who thought Russia's operation to take the capitol was a false flag operation. You lost all credibility with that one.

What makes you think it was not a 'false flag' operation by Russia in the North to cause Ukraine to move troops to the Northern border? The proper military term is a 'feint.'

 

[SandisLL]

It's far from happening. You keep forgetting that Russia isn't West. All these sanctions affects only major cities like Moscow and St Pete, people do feel the squeeze there. But vast majority living in dilapidated buildings in villages don't feel it at all. Why? Because they always lived like that, they see no difference to their living standards. When was the last time you heard about any protests?

West is vastly different. Whether we live in villages or large cities, we all experienced luxury and many of us also depend on the welfare to get by. They don't have any welfare programs there, you don't work - you don't eat. Ill or not. Imagine this scale of economic damage happening in US. Biden/Trump or whoever would be in charge at that time would be publicly hanged within first year.

If you have money, you might purchase in St Pete and Moscow the same stuff like you might get in London. I mean civilian stuff.
Ofc cos middlemans parralel import.
Therefore ofc more expensive than in London.

And no, sanctions does have impact : they prevent foreign investments.


Russian economy isn't collapsing at all.
While high interest rates are doing slow but huge damage for future...
Huge special operation funding is doing damage for labour market: bussinesmans doesn't protest, they are crying about shortage of workforce : males.
This is cos Putin had hired a lot of them for special operation ......

A lot of inflation factors are cos special operation.

For example reinforced concrete panels price had increased due to inflation anyway PLUS Putin is paying for these more than civilian construction companies....because they are using them to build bunkers .....

Bags for sand etc are in high demand too: for special operation.
Etc etc.

 

[San Marino]

You're the idiot who thought Russia's operation to take the capitol was a false flag operation. You lost all credibility with that one.

What makes you think it was not a 'false flag' operation by Russia in the North to cause Ukraine to move troops to the Northern border?
The proper military term is a 'feint.'

Yeap. Thanks for bringing up my correction to that term. So, if I have pointed out the difference between the two, what does credibility have to do with anything? Here is the complete post:

What makes you think it was not a 'false flag' operation by Russia in the North to cause Ukraine to move troops to the Northern border? The proper military term is a 'feint.' Diversion is the term used by civilians.

Yeap, and I'm the idiot in this thread?

 

[San Marino]

It wasn't even so much that they wanted the EU, Ukraine was done with Russia. Ukraine wanted no more corruption from Russia, no more puppet governments from Russia, no more shady trade deals for Russia. That's the main reason Russia/Putin was upset. Ukraine was cutting them off, like breaking up with an abuser and Russia, like an abuser, was having none of it.

Ukraine wanted no more corruption from Russia? Please. Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia.
Ukraine wanted no more puppet governments from Russia? Ukraine has been an independent country since 1991. Any 'puppetism' is/was created by the Ukrainian government itself.
So, this 'bad' relationship with Russia started around 2014? 2021? Why would it take so long since their independence in 1991?
Dude do yourself a favor and read up on the history of Russia, USSR, and Ukraine. I thought you were one of the few smart ones in this thread, but I was wrong.

So, the way this thread operates goes as follow: If you favor Ukraine in this conflict, we like you and you are smart. But if you favor Russia, we don't like you and you are dumb. Isn't that kind of the way democrats treated Trump until he won the election?
I guess I'm the idiot because I do not take Ukraine's side in this conflict. Let us see what happens to Ukraine after Trump takes office. I'm betting Trump will side with Putin. Zelensky has been one of the most corrupt leaders in Ukrainian history. He sure as shit is not running a democracy.

 

[San Marino]

Yes. Or to be more specific, I think anyone advocating for a HALO drop behind enemy lines in Ukraine is a complete moron with no actual military experience.

You think it's a good idea for Ukraine to train up people to make a HALO jump. So we're going to load up slow moving aircraft and fly them over the portion of the earth with the largest concentration of air radar and anti-air? I'd imagine you'd lose about 95% of all aircraft if you actually tried this.
Further, you suggest dropping small troop numbers with instructions to live off the land. This shows a complete lack of understanding of the current situation in Ukraine. The front (not counting the portion inside russia) is over 350 miles. There is no practical spot to drop any forces where they wouldn't be completely surrounded and instantly cut off. And are you aware of just how devastated this region is? How exactly are these guys gonna live off the land? This isn't fucking SERE school. They aren't going to be catching rabbits and picking berries. There is no food or supplies left to be scavenged. And what the fuck are these guys even jumping with? How much ammo and rations do you plan on them taking?

Mate I could go on and on about how stupid this plan is, but what's the point? Your posts read like a guy who did the bare minimum in googling military units and then tried to pretend you were an officer with sound experience.

For fucks sake, it's been three years and you're still arguing that the attempt outside of Kiev was a feint. Something that anyone can tell is a lie the moment they remember a 40-mile column of abandoned russian vehicles that were trying to resupply.........wait for it.......Kiev.

Why would I be carded for disagreeing with your points? Why would I be carded for questioning your "expertise," when you're the one who wants to constantly drop your resume?

You want another example of you me not buying your history? It's you whining this much. Never met an officer who cried as much as you. That may fly at the russian troll farm, but an American infantry officer wouldn't be having a meltdown like you are.

For fuck's sake @Darkballs , give it a break man. People are tired of reading shit about yours and my military experience and views. No one gives a shit. First you say I don't have enough stories than you say I have too many stories. Which one is it?

Here, I'll make it easy for you. I have lied. I am a woman and have never been in the military! There, end of story.
You can go to sleep now. What a whiny little bitch...

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

Ukraine wanted no more corruption from Russia? Please. Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia.
Ukraine wanted no more puppet governments from Russia? Ukraine has been an independent country since 1991. Any 'puppetism' is/was created by the Ukrainian government itself.
So, this 'bad' relationship with Russia started around 2014? 2021? Why would it take so long since their independence in 1991?
Dude do yourself a favor and read up on the history of Russia, USSR, and Ukraine. I thought you were one of the few smart ones in this thread, but I was wrong.

So, the way this thread operates goes as follow: If you favor Ukraine in this conflict, we like you and you are smart. But if you favor Russia, we don't like you and you are dumb. Isn't that kind of the way democrats treated Trump until he won the election?
I guess I'm the idiot because I do not take Ukraine's side in this conflict. Let us see what happens to Ukraine after Trump takes office. I'm betting Trump will side with Putin. Zelensky has been one of the most corrupt leaders in Ukrainian history. He sure as shit is not running a democracy.

Russians moved in on Crimea after Ukrainians threatened to evict them from their Sevastopol base over a disagreement over gas payments IIRC.

NATO was never a factor but became a key talking point only afterwards.

https://archive.is/tAWYd

https://archive.is/https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2016-04-18/why-russian-president-putin-took-crimea-from-ukraine

 

[San Marino]

Russians moved in on Crimea after Ukrainians threatened to evict them from their Sevastopol base over a disagreement over gas payments IIRC.

Indeed, and why didn't Ukraine go to war with Russia then? Ukraine did nothing.

 

[Darkballs]

For fucks sake @Darkballs , give it a break man. People are tired of reading shit about yours and my military experience and views.

Mate, all this has ever been is you advocating for an immediate Ukrainian surrender on the grounds of some really shitty military hot takes. And I've called you out on them. You never really have a rebuttal. You aren't really staying in the pocket for your HALO suggestion.

But it's not just your poor strategic ideas, but also that your position is completely contrary to everyone I've ever served with. You expect me to believe that you are an infantry officer of 20+ years, with four combat tours and multiple awards for valor, yet you believe that russia should dictate the terms of a sovereign ally's independence? That's not just cowardly, it's spineless. You expect me to believe you fought, but would advocate for that?

You want a courtesy from me? I'll extend this: I will not address you again, so long as you make no further stupid comments. But if I even get a whiff of any more "Kiev has been a 3-year feint," then all bets are off.

 

[San Marino]

Mate, all this has ever been is you advocating for an immediate Ukrainian surrender on the grounds of some really shitty military hot takes. And I've called you out on them. You never really have a rebuttal. You aren't really staying in the pocket for your HALO suggestion.

But it's not just your poor strategic ideas, but also that your position is completely contrary to everyone I've ever served with. You expect me to believe that you are an infantry officer of 20+ years, with four combat tours and multiple awards for valor, yet you believe that russia should dictate the terms of a sovereign ally's independence? That's not just cowardly, it's spineless. You expect me to believe you fought, but would advocate for that?

You want a courtesy from me? I'll extend this: I will not address you again, so long as you make no further stupid comments. But if I even get a whiff of any more "Kiev has been a 3-year feint," then all bets are off.

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

Indeed, and why didn't Ukraine go to war with Russia then? Ukraine did nothing.

Wow just like that you accept that Russians took Crimea to avoid losing their naval base and not because something something NATO? I guess this is progress.

Believe it or not but politicians and military leaders have a good idea of their country's capabilities. At the time Ukraine was not in position to do anything about it. Crimea was also seen by many as a historically Russian land.

Ukraine spent years after that building and professionalizing their military, building ties with the West/US, receiving equipment, etc.

So while 2022 was unexpected, Ukraine was far better prepared.

This is not some great mystery.

 

[San Marino]

You want a courtesy from me? I'll extend this: I will not address you again, so long as you make no further stupid comments. But if I even get a whiff of any more "Kiev has been a 3-year feint," then all bets are off.

Kiev has been a 3-year feint!
No wait, a diversion? Maybe a false flag operation? The Russians took a wrong turn and went south instead of east?
I need an experienced ex-Marine NCO to explain all these terms to me.
Man, I wish I was smart, that way I could maybe join the United States Marine Corps.

 

[San Marino]

Believe it or not but politicians and military leaders have a good idea of their country's capabilities. At the time Ukraine was not in position to do anything about it. Crimea was also seen by many as a historically Russian land.

Ukraine spent years after that building and professionalizing their military, building ties with the West/US, receiving equipment, etc.

No, Ukraine's military was okay. Not great, but okay. They could have given the Russians a good run for their money back in 2014. The Russian Army was equally okay. Maybe one step below the shitty Army they had in 2022.
The North Vietnamese managed to win the war against the Americans with outdated equipment. We Americans lost roughly 50,000 soldiers during that war. 15 years of fighting? Ukraine has lost roughly 400,000 in 3 years of fighting.

...and here we are at the end of 2024 and both Army's still suck. Ukraine with 400,000 casualties and losing and Russia with 600,000 casualties and wining.

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

No, Ukraine's military was okay. Not great, but okay. They could have given the Russians a good run for their money back in 2014. The Russian Army was equally okay. Maybe one step below the shitty Army they had in 2022.
The North Vietnamese managed to win the war against the Americans with outdated equipment. We Americans lost roughly 50,000 soldiers during that war. 15 years of fighting? Ukraine has lost roughly 400,000 in 3 years of fighting.

...and here we are at the end of 2024 and both Army's still suck. Ukraine with 400,000 casualties and losing and Russia with 600,000 casualties and wining.

You can't be serious. In 2014, Ukrainians did not have javelins and all sorts of other equipment they received from US. Ukrainians also did not have NATO training nor the intelligence sharing agreements.

Ukrainian army was quite shaky in 2022 after 8 years of preparations yet you magically want them to somehow be prepared in 2014?

That's like asking you why you didn't know what you know now when you were a toddler....

Yes the rough figures are 400k vs 600k(KIA and wounded/injured) however Ukrainians have significantly fewer KIA. Zelenskyy stated that half of the wounded or injured were able to return back into service. You are repeating what Trump said but also making the same mistakes he made when he repeated these figures without fully understanding what they meant.

 

[Limbo Pete]

You can't be serious. In 2014, Ukrainians did not have javelins and all sorts of other equipment they received from US. Ukrainians also did not have NATO training nor the intelligence sharing agreements.

Ukrainian army was quite shaky in 2022 after 8 years of preparations yet you magically want them to somehow be prepared in 2014?

That's like asking you why you didn't know what you know now when you were a toddler....

Yes the rough figures are 400k vs 600k(KIA and wounded/injured) however Ukrainians have significantly fewer KIA. Zelenskyy stated that half of the wounded or injured were able to return back into service. You are repeating what Trump said but also making the same mistakes he made when he repeated these figures without fully understanding what they meant.

And he doesn't even actually think Ukraine should have been prepared in 2014. Want he wants is for Russia to crush them, full stop. And the reason he wants that is because his brainworms has steered him unbreakably into thinking of this conflict as an extension of our own partisan politics. When he thinks Russia, he thinks Trump GOP. When he thinks Trump GOP, he thinks "me". So he sees himself and his own sense of power entitlement at play here. Of course he wants Russia to win, he thinks it will mean the destruction -literally- of his social/political enemies. Now that is all absolute fucking nonsense, but he and many others like him do indeed believe it (and Putin profits from it while laughing his ass off)

 

[ferrisjso]

Russia beginning to lose artillery advantage.

Russia's ability to outmatch Ukraine with artillery on battlefield significantly reduced

While the Kremlin's forces now seem to have less of an advantage when it comes to artillery, vast quantities of Russian glide bombs appear to be compensating for its reduction in rounds, Western officials have said.

news.sky.com

Once they get Chasiv Yar this won't matter. Russia can hit all major targets in Donetsk Oblast from there. Russia already has half the city and it might fall before years end. Once it does Russia will be able to artillery strike Ukraines "fortress citys" with impunity.

 

[Cid]

 

[Cid]

Once they get Chasiv Yar this won't matter. Russia can hit all major targets in Donetsk Oblast from there. Russia already has half the city and it might fall before years end. Once it does Russia will be able to artillery strike Ukraines "fortress citys" with impunity.

Years end is like 20 days away.

If you want your predictions to have a chance to pan out you should use longer time frames.

 

[ferrisjso]

Years end is like 20 days away.

If you want your predictions to have a chance to pan out you should use longer time frames.

If troops already have half the city 20 days is a reasonable timeframe. Not saying I'm 100% confident they'll have it by then but I'm not exactly reaching for the stars here.

I said "it might fall by years end" and thats what I meant it might fall by years end.

 

[SandisLL]

Pro russian guys happiness with Trump is amusement.
Yes, most likely Trump doesn't care who will rule Ukraine.
However he should demonstrate for all world that U.S is great again....

So If Putin will not agree with Trump administration peace plan ....Trump if in angry mode might order even increase weapons and ammo supplies for Ukr. Ofc money he will not be willing to send, while there are xx millions of old toys in warehouses waiting for de commisioning.
Definitely Trump doesn't fear from oreshnikbthreats missile.

Ofc for him ukr most likely looks lesser worth than russia but there....this is if Putin will do stuff he does wants to be done.
If no, then.

BTW idea to drop crude oil prices didn't had died. Despite Iran, Russia and OPEC efforts to have as high crude oil prices as it is possible.

 

[SandisLL]

BTW I wonder how will feel Orban and Fico if EC will approwe additional sanctions ...with ROSATOM and TVEL included ..LOL.
Big IF.