International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Orgasmo]

German think tank's assessment of Russian military production capacities:

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1f9c7f5f-15d2-45c4-8b85-9bb550cd449d-Kiel_Report_no1.pdf

Q2 2024: 387 tanks, 1409 IFV/APC, 112 artillery, 38, multiple rocket launch system, 27 SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) , 12 Medium Range Air Defense, 535 Lancets

Importantly, as of April 2023, production rates have surpassed the needs in Ukraine and allowed Russia to build major new fighting units.

Basically their production have long exceeded their rate of losses in Ukraine, just like I said last year.

Up to now, roughly 80% of production of armoured vehicles are retrofits of existing hulls from available stockpiles of Soviet and Russian vehicles. Though when stockpiles deplete, production may be less affected than assumed. As stockpiles are depleted, it is expected that the production rate would correspondingly decrease, with estimates that this would begin in 2026 (Watling and Somerville, 2024). Hulls are the key bottleneck in production. Production lines for the widely used T-72 hull for tanks (used by the T-72 and T-90), infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), artillery, and air defence existed prior to the war and have been expanded. Additionally, there are dedicated production lines for the T-80 tank. For other armoured vehicles, there is a noticeable shift to more modern, cost-effective vehicles like the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) and the Typhoon armoured personnel carrier (APC). Even without any new production lines, Russian production of new tanks would be at 350 modern tanks per year past 2026, but 23KIEL REPORT NO. 1 | SEPTEMBER 2024 additional production lines may be opened. Production of other armoured vehicles will be less affected as shifts to more contemporary wheeled designs are underway.

One problem they face is that majority of their "new" tanks and armor vehicles are modernization of Soviet stockpile (T-72, T-80, BMP-1/2, BTR-80) which will run out in 2026. However, new production line is expected to be set up, so while they might slow down in raw output, they will receive more modern systems.

This is coming from a pro-Ukrainian sources, just like all my sources were based on Western and Ukrainian reporting.

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

Will some of you look at the war more realistically now, or do you prefer that I leave you to your echo chamber?

 

[SandisLL]

Shoigu has done an interview yesterday and it's talked about a lot in Rus forums: Shortly before Kyiv's attempted invasion of the Kursk region, Russia agreed to refrain from striking energy facilities, but Ukraine withdrew from the negotiations.

"Turkey proposed to us... not to strike energy facilities, not to strike nuclear energy facilities, and not to strike the commercial civilian fleet in the Black Sea. Our president made a decision and said: "Yes, let's go, let's make such a decision." And it was a big surprise for us when after some time they (the Ukrainian authorities) said: "No-no-no, we will not go for this agreement."

Ohh, Shoigu might show how good comrade he is for russians and sell his villa and donate this money for Russian soldiers in person in form of equipment etc ...

And how de Militarization actually worked for Ukraine is easy to see: 1992 th : Ukr had approx 4200 tanks. 2022 th : on paper ( NB ) approx 900 in working condition.

And it had been told that Russia wanted that ukr migh be allowed to have not more than 300 tanks. About NATO or EU membership it isn't even worth to talk. Not this had concerned Hitler at all.
Beauty..
West literally had threw ukr under bus and rus ofc need to prepare for next war. Real beauty.

Maybe Ukraine might had did smart step and sanctioned west and applied to be part of Russia? Russians loves non Russian origin rulers like Beria, Stalin etc. You just need tell them how beautiful they are and that others are enemies and manage them with a glance. It worked well. West are weak pussies and money hungry hypocrites and like Russia liars.....while russians are the same and just more violent. Tell them that they are superior and they will listen your orders. Trademark : Hitler.

 

[Orgasmo]

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine’s leaders have insisted that Russia needs to be driven out of all Ukrainian territory before any peace talks could begin.

Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Western support for Ukraine showing signs of fatigue, Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan, at least for the next year of the war, according to European diplomats.

The West still backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-term stated aim of taking back control of its territory. But some European diplomats say Ukraine needs to be more pragmatic in its wartime aims and strategy. That could help Western officials advocate to their respective voters the need to funnel arms and aid to the country.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy will travel to Ukraine on Wednesday to meet with Ukrainian officials in part to discuss how best to define a Ukrainian victory and what aid it will need to achieve that, according to officials. Several other senior U.S. and European officials have been in Kyiv in the past two weeks.

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-pressed-to-think-about-a-plan-b-for-war-with-russia-d65112fe?mod=hp_lead_pos1

My guess is that Murica and EU are going to force Ukraine to accept territorial losses and negotiate next year.

 

[Cid]

German think tank's assessment of Russian military production capacities:

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1f9c7f5f-15d2-45c4-8b85-9bb550cd449d-Kiel_Report_no1.pdf

Basically their production have long exceeded their rate of losses in Ukraine, just like I said last year.

One problem they face is that majority of their "new" tanks and armor vehicles are modernization of Soviet stockpile (T-72, T-80, BMP-1/2, BTR-80) which will run out in 2026. However, new production line is expected to be set up, so while they might slow down in raw output, they will receive more modern systems.

This is coming from a pro-Ukrainian sources, just like all my sources were based on Western and Ukrainian reporting.

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

Will some of you look at the war more realistically now, or do you prefer that I leave you to your echo chamber?

Vehicle production might slow down when soviet stockpiles run dry is a bit of an understatement.

 

[curryjunkie]

Vehicle production might slow down when soviet stockpiles run dry is a bit of an understatement.

they arent even using many vehicles in their attacks now due to the heavy losses, small groups of infantry is the new tactic, any concentrated armour just gets blatted ..

 

[Cid]

 

[SandisLL]

Germany think tanks?
They aren't capable to deliver spare parts for their weapons according to schedule in real life, we should listen russian friends in Germany think tanks? LOL.
Historically Germany always had dreams to negotiate under the table with their friends I. Russia to divide influence spheres in europe under the table.

Interestingly how German think tanks might evalue idiotism like this : looks that they maybe doesn't have enough spare parts for self propelled howitzers !!!
And now professors better opted to promise next 12 self propelled howitzers instead to deliver spare parts! And these 12 maybe will be delivered in December etc. Beauty!
German self propelled arty is very good stuff and still they does need spare parts etc..

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-pressed-to-think-about-a-plan-b-for-war-with-russia-d65112fe?mod=hp_lead_pos1

My guess is that Murica and EU are going to force Ukraine to accept territorial losses and negotiate next year.

LOL, how many times have you guessed that and been wrong?

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Uh oh....this may cause an escalation.

 

[Cid]

Swiss neutral stance has fucked it's arms manufacturing industry in the ass. Germany to forbid all weapon imports from Switzerland.

Deutschland will keine Rüstungsgüter mehr aus der Schweiz

Ein Brief aus Deutschland schlägt hohe Wellen. Schweizer Unternehmen seien ausgeschlossen, sich für eine Beschaffung der Bundeswehr zu bewerben, heisst es.

www.watson.ch

 

[syct23]

Huge if True,

Looks like that debate last night got everyone not afraid anymore.

UK be all “Well, looks like the US ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Let Ukraine play”.

 

[SandisLL]

Swiss neutral stance has fucked it's arms manufacturing industry in the ass. Germany to forbid all weapon imports from Switzerland.

Deutschland will keine Rüstungsgüter mehr aus der Schweiz

Ein Brief aus Deutschland schlägt hohe Wellen. Schweizer Unternehmen seien ausgeschlossen, sich für eine Beschaffung der Bundeswehr zu bewerben, heisst es.

www.watson.ch

Sure as I had posted long ago.
Also Swtizerland in reality does love Russia a lot.
For example decades ago Switzerland had purchased approx 100 tanks ...and had paid. When these tanks were already old for current market they had sold these but with clauses ...and when war in ukr had started they used clauses and didn't had allowed buyers who had already paid for stuff to send this old crap to Ukraine.

Our MoD wasn't able to send even small arms ammo long ago purchased and paid for .....due to clauses in sales contracts.
Some 5 EU countries had purchased famous 35 mm ammo from Switzerland and ofc Long ago had been 100% paid for ....and still Switzerland with clauses to rule what stuff you might do with ammo after you had long ago paid for purchase.
Thanks to Lord they doesn't produce not replaceable stuff at all if to talk about weapons or ammo.
Still their pro russian stance had seriously limited Europe's ability quickly to supply Ukraine with ammunition and they also had hit Ukraine with denial to remowe clause for old tanks they had SOLD long ago....it is Matushka Ryssis.

 

[Orgasmo]

LOL, how many times have you guessed that and been wrong?

How many times? I've said it since 2022 that Ukraine will have to accept concessions. Better question is how long will you remain delusional about Ukraine pushing Russia out?

 

[Orgasmo]

Ukraine shot down a Su-30SM (most advanced Flanker variant, on par with Su-35S) over the Black Sea. This has been confirmed by Russian sources as well. First confirmed loss of this jet.

By MANPADS it seems when it was strafing Ukrainian attack boats with its guns.

 

[PBAC]

They have contained the Ukranian advance but are not actively trying to kick them out of the region. The general thinking is that advances in Donetsk and south Kharkov are the priority over kicking Ukraine out. The main point of the Ukranian attack was to divert Russian resources and if Putin did that he'd be giving them what they want.

In what sense is it contained?

 

[GhostZ06]

Uh oh....this may cause an escalation.

well it will give the russians a reason to arm terrorist groups

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

How many times? I've said it since 2022 that Ukraine will have to accept concessions. Better question is how long will you remain delusional about Ukraine pushing Russia out?

I've never said UKR will push them out on the battlefield alone. What has the cost been for Russia to do this SMO? it will be getting worse before it get's better, putler has been lucky another Prig hasnt stepped up and tried a coup. Russia is going down one way or another.

 

[Hog-train]

How will it have a detrimental effects in the future. Should the west give in to people want to end western democracy? To hand authoritarian rule to people who do not value freedom? Sorry Russia will not use a nuke Putin likes being the richest person in the world that would end overnight.

You're misunderstanding what I'm saying (or I wasn't clear). Letting Russia win and essentially keep all their territorial gains will have cascading effects into the future that are horrible.

There is a reason all the Baltic states and countries on the Russian border are steadfast and resolute about helping Ukraine all the way. They know Russia will keep doing what they're doing if they're not stopped.

If a ceasefire deal is reached and Russia keeps all this territory, they'll be quiet for a few years as they rebuild. And then keep doing what they've always done. Destabilize all the neighboring states and make them proxies and outright annex them if they can.

How do I know this? Because that is what they have ALWAYS done. Every state they border, they try to destabilize.

Looks like ATACMS and Storm Shadow will be allowed to strike Russia.

Biden poised to lift ban on firing British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia

David Lammy and Antony Blinken will meet in Ukraine on Wednesday to discuss lifting restrictions as Iran arms Russia with ballistic rockets

www.telegraph.co.uk

This is only for Storm Shadow - not ATACMS.

They also never gave them Snake Eyes.

 

[Orgasmo]

I've never said UKR will push them out on the battlefield alone. What has the cost been for Russia to do this SMO? it will be getting worse before it get's better, putler has been lucky another Prig hasnt stepped up and tried a coup. Russia is going down one way or another.

That's simply wishful thinking. There is over a trillion dollars worth of minerals under the grounds of Ukraine, not to mention coal, gas and oil. If Russia succeeds in capturing most of Novorossiya (Putin's ultimate geopolitical aim), then Russia can stay rich by selling resources for decades to come. China and India alone would kiss Putin's feet trying to secure these to fuel their economies.

Hell Europe is still buying oil and gas from Russia, just paying extra to be converted to "Indian" first.

Did I mention that Donbass was the industrial heartland and most populated part of Ukraine?

 

[SandisLL]

they arent even using many vehicles in their attacks now due to the heavy losses, small groups of infantry is the new tactic, any concentrated armour just gets blatted ..

Yes.
Nowadays CCTV systems and other kind of optical/ thermal observation tools , additionally ground radars and advanced thermals + drones etc added with sound sensors and analyzators systems, plus if to add here sattelites and informants makes situation where you can't use large columns unnoticed. So enemy will have notice time to prepare for attack episode enough long....
Therefore looks that this is reason why small groups are used....