International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V14

[Blayt7hh]

If you believe Ukraine is inflicting 5:1 kill ratio on Russians, I have a bridge to sell you. In warfare, the side that has the inferior firepower needs to pay for parity with lives. This is the rule of thumb in every war. There is a reason Ukrainians conscription officers are grabbing men off the streets. There is also a reason why Ukraine will not release their casualty figures. There is a reason why they have women in trenches. There is a reason majority of Ukraine's front line brigades are at 30 to 50% strength. If they managed to get 1:1 exchange rate, it'd be a success already.

Lol no it isn’t. History is replete with examples of overmatched defenders that find clever ways to win. Every respected source on the matter has casualty rates for Russia as like double that of Ukraine across the entire war

You really shouldn’t speak so authoritatively on topics you clearly aren’t very informed about

 

[Blayt7hh]

All of Europe should feel ashamed for being so militarily weak and unprepared. After the fall of Communism, they thought Russian aggression was a thing of the past, but they should have woken the fuck up after the wars in Chechnya and Georgia in 2008. Then 2014 Crimea, and they still didn't re-arm. Instead they relied on the US and continued fattening their pockets with Russian business deals.

Now Russia tries to take all of Ukraine, fails, but retains about to retain the whole Eastern part and still Europe fails them. If they let this stand, Russia will -re-arm and rebuild and I predict Georgia, Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan are next. Any country not in NATO, but formerly part of the USSR sphere.

Why do I think this? Because look at Russia's history. Appeasement doesn't work.

And NATO nations seem to expect other nations on the East to do all the fighting for them. Germany would have had the arms to fight for a few days only if it were them fighting. The largest economy in the EU and that's the best they could have done going alone. WTF.

Georgia probably next. Because they've already had been doing shady shit there.

I’m fat from a Trump fan but one thing he definitely got right was calling out a lot of NATO countries for slacking. Essentially they have been enjoying the security the US provides and not holding up their end of the deal.

Not true for all countries though as @Cole train pointed out

 

[Hog-train]

I’m fat from a Trump fan but one thing he definitely got right was calling out a lot of NATO countries for slacking. Essentially they have been enjoying the security the US provides and not holding up their end of the deal.

Not true for all countries though as @Cole train pointed out

He was right about that and also the economic threat of China and I agreed with him for banning Huawei. However, he was reluctant to send Ukraine aid at first and delayed it. I do not trust he will not try to appease Russia if he wins election.

 

[lsa]

 

[The XL]

Ukraine's ability to stay competitive is dependent on America sending weaponry. Americans are starting to not care, Israel is the new thing.

This is on all of Europe, both East and West, for not taking their militaries seriously.

 

[SandisLL]

Ukraine's ability to stay competitive is dependent on America sending weaponry. Americans are starting to not care, Israel is the new thing.

This is on all of Europe, both East and West, for not taking their militaries seriously.

Without Europe Ukr State Treasury long ago had to declare default de facto. They not only had provided macro financial assistance money injections on collective basis , also advocated IMF, WB, WBID, EBRD, etc to provide grants and loans and even had signed warrant letters.

Europe can't afford to deplete actual stockpiles and instead should rise these because we should to calculate that Donald Trump will be next POTUS and will think that largest trade partner is just village and pull U.S Into Great Depression No2 beauty.
For this scenario Europe is preparing so sorry....Realpolitik.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Videer]

russians paying the price for some gains near Bakhmut

 

[PEB]

Popular Russian blogger who I predict will jump from a window soon enough lol.

 

[ViD]

Popular Russian blogger who I predict will jump from a window soon enough lol.

He’s Estonian, has nothing to do with Russia

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.yahoo.com

"

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment​

Katie Bo Lillis, CNN
Tue, December 12, 2023 at 9:43 AM PST·4 min read
10k

AP
Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

Still, despite heavy losses of men and equipment, Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to push forward as the war approaches its two-year anniversary early next year and US officials are warning that Ukraine remains deeply vulnerable. A highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive stagnated through the fall, and US officials believe that Kyiv is unlikely to make any major gains over the coming months.

The assessment, sent to Capitol Hill on Monday, comes as some Republicans have balked at the US providing additional funding for Ukraine and the Biden administration has launched a full-court press to try to get supplemental funding through Congress.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington on Tuesday, meeting with US lawmakers and President Joe Biden in desperate bid to secure the military and economic aid he says is vital to Ukraine’s ability to maintain the fight against Russia.
Russia has been able to keep its war effort going despite the heavy losses by relaxing recruitment standards and dipping into Soviet-era stockpiles of older equipment. Still, the assessment found that the war has “sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force.”

Of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the assessment. 2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost, according to the assessment. 4,400 of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have also been destroyed, a 32 percent loss rate.
“As of late November, Russia lost over a quarter of its pre-invasion stockpiles of ground forces equipment,” the assessment reads. “This has reduced the complexity and scale of Russian offensive operations, which have failed to make major gains in Ukraine since early 2022.”

CNN has reached out to the Russian Embassy in Washington for comment.
But it is the political environment in Washington that presents perhaps the greatest peril for Ukraine. Some Republicans are stiffly rejecting any additional funding and Senate Republicans are insisting on making it part of a broader spending package to include money for Israel, Taiwan and the US southern border. The Biden administration is warning that the US will soon be out of money for Ukraine.

“The idea that Ukraine was going to throw Russia back to the 1991 borders was preposterous,” Sen. J.D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio, said on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “So what we’re saying to the president and really to the entire world is, you need to articulate what the ambition is. What is $61 billion going to accomplish that $100 billion hasn’t?”
Other newly declassified intelligence previously reported by CNN suggests that “Russia seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Russia the advantage despite Russian losses and persistent shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment,” according to a National Security Council spokesman.

“Since launching its offensive in October, we assess that the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis and over 220 combat vehicle losses-the equivalent of 6 maneuver battalions in equipment alone,” NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told CNN.

Before the invasion, Russia had a total standing military of approximately 900,000 active-duty troops, including ground troops, airborne troops, special operations and other uniformed personnel, according to the CIA. Since the start of the invasion, Russia has announced plans to increase the size of the armed forces to 1.5 million. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced several rounds of conscription, including its regular fall conscription cycle on October 1.

Russia has also leaned heavily on convicts marshaled to the fight by the Wagner Group and has increased the age limit for certain categories of citizens to remain in the reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation."

 

[Strychnine]

Pentagon Has a Workaround to Send Ukraine Arms Despite Aid Stalemate​

"(Bloomberg) -- The White House warns it will run out of money by the end of the year to keep sending Ukraine military aid unless Congress breaks a funding deadlock. But analysts and lawmakers say there’s a workaround that means the deadline isn’t quite so tight.

The tactic: Continue to provide arms from US stockpiles in hopes of waiting until later for the money to replace them. According to Pentagon estimates, the US can still send Ukraine military hardware valued at $4.6 billion under what’s called Presidential Drawdown Authority. Yet it only has $1 billion to buy new equipment to replace the old.

Sending Ukraine military equipment without a guarantee that it’ll be replaced soon is a risky strategy. But some lawmakers argue it means Ukraine won’t be truly threatened if Congress fails to agree to a White House request for new funding before lawmakers head off for the holidays at the end of the week.

“What you are giving out in PDA is actual physical equipment, it doesn’t involve funds,” said Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee and one of his party’s leading supporters of Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion. “It would be better to pass the bill this month for a number of reasons, but we can make it work to wait until next month.”

The Biden administration’s request for an additional $60 billion in assistance to Ukraine is mired in a dispute over Republican demands that it be tied to tougher enforcement at the US border with Mexico. Congress is about to adjourn for the year, and a visit by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to Capitol Hill on Tuesday failed to inspire immediate action.

In a display of continued administration support, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced late Thursday an additional $200 million package of arms for Ukraine under the previously authorized drawdown authority. The administration also provided a summary of $44.2 billion in weapons the US has provided since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

“There is no statutory requirement to replace equipment sent to allies under the PDA,” said Mark Cancian, a former Office of Management and Budget defense specialist. “In theory, DoD could keep sending weapons and munitions even if there was no money available to replace them.”

MSN

 

[PEB]

He’s Estonian, has nothing to do with Russia

Did you watch the video? The video about the Russian blogger not Artur. Artur just reported about it.

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

All of Europe should feel ashamed for being so militarily weak and unprepared. After the fall of Communism, they thought Russian aggression was a thing of the past, but they should have woken the fuck up after the wars in Chechnya and Georgia in 2008. Then 2014 Crimea, and they still didn't re-arm. Instead they relied on the US and continued fattening their pockets with Russian business deals.

Now Russia tries to take all of Ukraine, fails, but about to retain the whole Eastern part and still Europe fails them. If they let this stand, Russia will -re-arm and rebuild and I predict Georgia, Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan are next. Any country not in NATO, but formerly part of the USSR sphere.

Why do I think this? Because look at Russia's history. Appeasement doesn't work.

And NATO nations seem to expect other nations on the East to do all the fighting for them. Germany would have had the arms to fight for a few days only if it were solely them fighting. The largest economy in the EU and that's the best they could have done going alone. WTF.

Georgia probably next. Because they've already had been doing shady shit there.

Georgia maybe yet no because they had elected pro Russia oriented parliament, however yeah, they are scheduled by Russia to subjugate them sooner or later.
They are not annexed today only because Russian companies might use Georgia to avoid sanctions.......
I.e register businesses etc and to use them for paralel import ...
Like with Armenia.
While today Armenia yet looks more lucrative object to annex because their government isn't enough pro Kremlin oriented.

About arms I'm not so sure: Germany had produced a lot of ammo during Cold War and also refuses to sign re export permits for cluster ammo they had sold decades ago.
Most likely reported ammo stockpiled are only relatively " fresh " ammo....not all actual stuff.

While ofc ground forces they had degraded seriously.....

They had approx 3000 tanks in the end of Cold War and this means that they should have at least 3 m ammo units for tanks guns somewhere in basements.

While now they sadly looks that had to spent approx 1 year in order to get how much tanks in working condition they now does have . To clear spiders nets in basements....sad reality.

Germany does have huge production capacity, again sadly their weapons manufacturing and design industry had survived only cos foreign sales deals...

They does have normal navy and at least usable air forces, while ground forces were underfunded 30 years in row.....

 

[SandisLL]

Its guys west of poland/baltics/fin being lazy really, anyone on border is doing their best


Poland is about to be eu military power number 1

Baltics try their best even if they are small, lithuania spends most in europe from GDP point of view on army, Latvia is going back to conscription, Estonia still has conscription

Fin military has most slack ammo out of anyone in Europe and is basically european version of IDF

Problem is size, outside poland all are small countries with population less than 10 mil and no production

Latvia had abandoned conscription cos gameplan was to have national guard and small pro army ....more cos then they had some money to purchase technique etc.....without conscription.
Now they will reintroduce old stuff gradually...

All their budget deficite looks that will be cos military and police etc funding increase.

 

[PEB]

Well I think the US should give Ohio to the Indians as they were here before us . JD's an ass an a pro Russian puppet.

"

JD Vance says US must accept Ukraine will 'cede some territory' to Russia ahead of Zelenskyy's DC visit​

GOP senator says Biden admin must explain what $61B more in Ukraine funding will accomplish before 'writing more blank checks"​

 

[Goonerview]

Taiwan better not fuck around or they will be the next Ukraine.

This is how I feel.

I live in Japan and I wince every time I see Kishida cosying up to Biden … if the US war-hawks have their way, they’d turn Taiwan and Japan into the next Ukraine.

 

[Blayt7hh]

This is how I feel.

I live in Japan and I wince every time I see Kishida cosying up to Biden … if the US war-hawks have their way, they’d turn Taiwan and Japan into the next Ukraine.

Yes that would be so terrible if Taiwan or Japan got attacked and America came to your rescue

You’re responding to a stupid troll comment by the way. Like how would Taiwan be “fucking around” and become the next Ukraine?