International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V14

[Ruthless Ryan]

The problem is that Ukraine cannot afford to grind it out with Russia. Russia has major advantages in artillery, armor, helicopters, ammunition, jets, electronic warfare and manpower. It is highly doubtful that Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russians than it is suffering, despite the upbeat propaganda. This is the most frustrating aspect of this whole thing because so many here pretend Ukraine is achieving some magical 8:1 kill ratio. Contrary to popular belief, Russians aren't stupid. They might be slow to learn and adapt due to organizational ineffectiveness, but they will eventually do so. It is precisely this "Ukraine is winning" narrative the MSM and Ukrainian government kept pushing that we ended up in this hole, and now everyone is acting surprised. A stalemate is Ukraine's to lose given it cannot meaningfully replenish its losses.

It's now or never for Ukraine.

If you believe UKR Is suffering more loses then Russia you are lying to yourself, have you not followed Avdiivka and what’s going on there? Or many other fronts?
The loses arnt obvi 8-1 but the way Russians have fought and there care of life near 0 , I think realistic would be 3-1 minimum 5-1 max . If the loses were equal UKR would have already lost. UKR can’t really go on offensive as it’s to costly and not worth the gain at this point and they can grind it out if they have good defensive lines and let Russians keep taking bullets.

 

[PEB]

 

[PEB]

"
America’s paralyzing political estrangement may soon change the world for the worse.

Nearly two years into the war in Ukraine, a US lifeline of arms and ammunition is for the first time in real danger of collapsing, 12 months after President Volodymyr Zelensky was hailed as a hero during a Christmas visit to Washington. The assumption lying behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bid to wipe Ukraine off the map – that the US will lose interest in the war – is therefore close to being validated. This could set off serious consequences that would shake the foundation of US global leadership, alienate allies and embolden America’s sworn enemies.

In the GOP-controlled House, hardline Republicans dedicated to ex-President Donald Trump’s “America First” philosophy want to cut Ukraine loose and leave it to its fate. A wider group of Republicans in both chambers of Congress, meanwhile, are using President Joe Biden’s new $60 billion aid request to try to force huge concessions on immigration policy."

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

"
America’s paralyzing political estrangement may soon change the world for the worse.

Nearly two years into the war in Ukraine, a US lifeline of arms and ammunition is for the first time in real danger of collapsing, 12 months after President Volodymyr Zelensky was hailed as a hero during a Christmas visit to Washington. The assumption lying behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bid to wipe Ukraine off the map – that the US will lose interest in the war – is therefore close to being validated. This could set off serious consequences that would shake the foundation of US global leadership, alienate allies and embolden America’s sworn enemies.

In the GOP-controlled House, hardline Republicans dedicated to ex-President Donald Trump’s “America First” philosophy want to cut Ukraine loose and leave it to its fate. A wider group of Republicans in both chambers of Congress, meanwhile, are using President Joe Biden’s new $60 billion aid request to try to force huge concessions on immigration policy."

I’m not sure don’t buy into Sandis’s negativity, it’s political games but US will give the aid… they have too and they know it.

 

[ViD]

The idiots that truly believe the Russians are just throwing people into the meat grinder are going to be very surprised very soon.

Russia now has full advantage in artillery, Air Force, FPV drones, drop drones and surveillance drones.

Russian infantry only goes in once Ukrainian position are totally annihilated.

 

[Cid]

The problem is that Ukraine cannot afford to grind it out with Russia. Russia has major advantages in artillery, armor, helicopters, ammunition, jets, electronic warfare and manpower. It is highly doubtful that Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russians than it is suffering, despite the upbeat propaganda. This is the most frustrating aspect of this whole thing because so many here pretend Ukraine is achieving some magical 8:1 kill ratio. Contrary to popular belief, Russians aren't stupid. They might be slow to learn and adapt due to organizational ineffectiveness, but they will eventually do so. It is precisely this "Ukraine is winning" narrative the MSM and Ukrainian government kept pushing that we ended up in this hole, and now everyone is acting surprised. A stalemate is Ukraine's to lose given it cannot meaningfully replenish its losses.

It's now or never for Ukraine.

Drop the MSM shit.

We're not following the MSM.

You are, most of us aren't. Hell you posted more MSM articles arguing with me in a 20 post back and forth than I have in all 14 threads.


A guy calling himself Special Kherson Cat on twitter with the handle
bayraktar_1love is a more respected source than the MSM in this thread.

 

[ViD]

If you believe UKR Is suffering more loses then Russia you are lying to yourself, have you not followed Avdiivka and what’s going on there? Or many other fronts?
The loses arnt obvi 8-1 but the way Russians have fought and there care of life near 0 , I think realistic would be 3-1 minimum 5-1 max . If the loses were equal UKR would have already lost. UKR can’t really go on offensive as it’s to costly and not worth the gain at this point and they can grind it out if they have good defensive lines and let Russians keep taking bullets.

Bro you’re either trying to sugar coat shit or you’re a total idiot. The Russians are not suffering more casualties and there’s absolutely no reason for it to happen. Ukraine has nothing to offer to inflict such damage to the Russians.

Imagine, Russians are shooting 40k artillery shells versus 7k shells Ukrainians do daily, Russians have the gliding bombs, Russian have TOS systems, Russians have Iskanders, Russians have way more drones now.

How the fuck would Russians sustain 8 to 1 losses ? This shit you all believe in is exactly the reason why Ukraine is now losing and losing badly.

Ask yourself a question why the Ukrainians are dragging people out of the gyms to send to the front lines and Russians haven’t had mobilization since last year September ?

 

[Cid]

Bro you’re either trying to sugar coat shit or you’re a total idiot. The Russians are not suffering more casualties and there’s absolutely no reason for it to happen. Ukraine has nothing to offer to inflict such damage to the Russians.

Imagine, Russians are shooting 40k artillery shells versus 7k shells Ukrainians do daily, Russians have the gliding bombs, Russian have TOS systems, Russians have Iskanders, Russians have way more drones now.

How the fuck would Russians sustain 8 to 1 losses ? This shit you all believe in is exactly the reason why Ukraine is now losing and losing badly.

Ask yourself a question why the Ukrainians are dragging people out of the gyms to send to the front lines and Russians haven’t had mobilization since last year September ?

You haven't shot 40k artillery shells in a day for like 6 months now.

 

[ViD]

You haven't shot 40k artillery shells in a day for like 6 months now.

Where’s your source ? The Russians are on the offensive across the entire front and all of the Telegram channels covering the conflict confirm the Russia are now shooting much more shells than in the previous months

 

[Cid]

I’m not sure don’t buy into Sandis’s negativity, it’s political games but US will give the aid… they have too and they know it.

Don't underestimate how far the Republican Party has fallen.

Half of them legitimately believe Democrats just want America to fall off the face of the earth. Partisanshit is insane there.

 

[Cid]

Where’s your source ? The Russians are on the offensive across the entire front and all of the Telegram channels covering the conflict confirm the Russia are now shooting much more shells than in the previous months

I'm not the one making the ridiculous claim.

At the high end Russian artillery stockpile before the war started was an estimated 17 million.
At the high end your current artillery production per year is 2 million.

If you want to share with me a source that disputes this I'll welcome it.

 

[Limbo Pete]

The idiots that truly believe the Russians are just throwing people into the meat grinder are going to be very surprised very soon.

Russia now has full advantage in artillery, Air Force, FPV drones, drop drones and surveillance drones.

Russian infantry only goes in once Ukrainian position are totally annihilated.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Bro you’re either trying to sugar coat shit or you’re a total idiot. The Russians are not suffering more casualties and there’s absolutely no reason for it to happen. Ukraine has nothing to offer to inflict such damage to the Russians.

Imagine, Russians are shooting 40k artillery shells versus 7k shells Ukrainians do daily, Russians have the gliding bombs, Russian have TOS systems, Russians have Iskanders, Russians have way more drones now.

How the fuck would Russians sustain 8 to 1 losses ? This shit you all believe in is exactly the reason why Ukraine is now losing and losing badly.

Ask yourself a question why the Ukrainians are dragging people out of the gyms to send to the front lines and Russians haven’t had mobilization since last year September ?

First of all I denied the 8-1 loss rate , second Russian use old school Dumb artillery just destroying everything as they go. And Russians have on going mobilization as how did they just get another 400 k troops out of the blue , and then another 170,000 recently and why would they need to do that if they had little loses ?

 

[ViD]

First of all I denied the 8-1 loss rate , second Russian use old school Dumb artillery just destroying everything as they go. And Russians have on going mobilization as how did they just get another 400 k troops out of the blue , and then another 170,000 recently and why would they need to do that if they had little loses ?

Do you not realize they’re only recruiting volunteers now and it’s clearly not just because they have losses, but to allow rotation of the troops and to achieve the personnel advantage on the front lines

 

[ViD]

I'm not the one making the ridiculous claim.

At the high end Russian artillery stockpile before the war started was an estimated 17 million.
At the high end your current artillery production per year is 2 million.

If you want to share with me a source that disputes this I'll welcome it.

I admit 40k is an exaggerated number, upon looking into it, it appears that the reports now suggest 15-20k a day with shells from older stockpiles, newly produced and purchased from third countries

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Cid]

I admit 40k is an exaggerated number, upon looking into it, it appears that the reports now suggest 15-20k a day with shells from older stockpiles, newly produced and purchased from third countries

I'll give you a like for having the balls to concede.

I doubt 20k but 15k is probably possible with NK help. Obviously not easy to accurately gauge. You're likely tapering how many are been pulled from storage for a while now.

As a general rule you're going to have to fire more shells to get the same effect as Russia is much more about mass and AOE than the West and our obsession with CEP.

 

[ViD]

This is hilarious to learn the Russians are starting to panic when they have best situation on the front lines and in the country since February 2022

 

[Strychnine]

This is hilarious to learn the Russians are starting to panic when they have best situation on the front lines and in the country since February 2022

I guess Russia is doing well, considering it's a "3-day Special military operation."

 

[Cid]

This is hilarious to learn the Russians are starting to panic when they have best situation on the front lines and in the country since February 2022

July 1st.

HIMARS forced you guys to disperse and locate artillery stockpiles way behind the front lines. Before that Russia had an insane artillery advantage.

Went from around 20x to around 5x in a couple of months after that.