International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V14

[SandisLL]

According to colonel Gregson like in report January 2023 th the same stuff about sanctions effect: there is no proof that Russia's ability to manufacture weapons and ammunition had decreased due to " sanctions ".
Additionally : Russia is regrouping forces maybe in order to push large scale assault or at least to repel ukr offensive attempts with low losses in manpower and technique.

Stuff happening today most likely is proof that Russia had managed to repel supposed counter offensive and slowly are starting their own offensive.
IMHO it is predictable war laboratorium where Ukr is scheduled to loss and agree with all stuff Putin will ask for ....
Cos nor EU nor NATO will bother if Russia will take even half of Ukr and other part will be poor and neutral hole in debts. Supplies alone are in reality cool stamp here.

 

[SandisLL]

For Ukr sadly now best solution IMHO is sadly to agree with mandatory russification, announce State Treasury default and to ask be part of Russia. Sorry for painful reality....they should not be Kurds No2, better like Chechens in Russia cos Kremlin never will let them alone and for west they are Kurds No2 nothing more here.

 

[SandisLL]

According to colonel Gregson like in report January 2023 th the same stuff about sanctions effect: there is no proof that Russia's ability to manufacture weapons and ammunition had decreased due to " sanctions ".
Additionally : Russia is regrouping forces maybe in order to push large scale assault or at least to repel ukr offensive attempts with low losses in manpower and technique.

Stuff happening today most likely is proof that Russia had managed to repel supposed counter offensive and slowly are starting their own offensive.
IMHO it is predictable war laboratorium where Ukr is scheduled to loss and agree with all stuff Putin will ask for ....
Cos nor EU nor NATO will bother if Russia will take even half of Ukr and other part will be poor and neutral hole in debts. Supplies alone are in reality cool stamp here.

 

[SandisLL]

Also some Ukrainian media are posting bullshit about nuances regards to polish parliament vote for government.
Like phrases : parliament had voted no trust for government etc.

Yes, parliament didn't had approved next supposed cabinet of ministers....
It doesn't mean no trust or impeachment.


I soon will start to think that Ukr like USSR is empire of lies....

 

[SandisLL]

Maybe Ukr IMHO will get 0 next MANPAD from Poland due their lies and fake accusations and in reality to discuss problems with polish trade unions and businessmans ....

Most trustable Ukr partner in NATO and EU and so deep disrespect instead to tell thank you?
This conflict is very deep and Dear Lord if they will start to talk about Mr Bandera.... ( It wasn't Nazi but anti polish/ Slovaks oriented propagandist- anarchist Ukr independence advocate and propagandists. Poland had locked him in prison cos he promoted terrorism... Hitler had released him from prison but when he attempted to declare statehood he locked him again and then in the end of war had released cos he hated poles and Slovaks and attempted to use Bandera against them again. ).

 

[PEB]

Really good video of Ukrainian President and pro Russia leader facing off.

 

[Strychnine]

A Russian collaborator from Ukraine has been sanctioned near Moscow.

 

[Hog-train]

General makes a pretty good case for continued support for Ukraine.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[PEB]

Any questions where the Republican party stand. Stand with Putin.​

​

"JD Vance says US must accept Ukraine will 'cede some territory' to Russia ahead of Zelenskyy's DC visit"​

 

[PEB]

Putin mega lapdog Sergei Lavrov just added more insanity to the conversation. Point blank apparently. He said Russia by 2040 will have taken over all western territories till the boarder with France. Any questions what Putin's motivations are Trump supporters?

 

[Strychnine]

 

[The_Renaissance]

Putin mega lapdog Sergei Lavrov just added more insanity to the conversation. Point blank apparently. He said Russia by 2040 will have taken over all western territories till the boarder with France. Any questions what Putin's motivations are Trump supporters?

Nobody questions his motivations! The goal is insanely laughable! Joke country!

 

[PEB]

Nobody questions his motivations! The goal is insanely laughable! Joke country!

US is following down a very dark path that will week one I am willing to bet by a Trump administration meetings with Putin.

 

[Cole train]

More about demilitarization



Im really not fan of this mentality where west europe seems to expect east to do all fighting for them, germanys plan clearly to hope that poles stop russia.

I mean look at this

The British military—the leading U.S. military ally and Europe’s biggest defense spender—has only around 150 deployable tanks and perhaps a dozen serviceable long-range artillery pieces. So bare was the cupboard that last year the British military considered sourcing multiple rocket launchers from museums to upgrade and donate to Ukraine, an idea that was dropped.

France, the next biggest spender, has fewer than 90 heavy artillery pieces, equivalent to what Russia loses roughly every month on the Ukraine battlefield.

Denmark has no heavy artillery, submarines or air-defense systems. (They used to have arty but donated all to ukr)

Germany’s army has enough ammunition for two days of battle.


I will post rest of article since its kinda important for future

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/
In the decades since the end of the Cold War, weakened European armies were tolerated by governments across the West because an engaged America, with its vast military muscle, underpinned the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and defense policy in Europe. The U.S. accounted for nearly 70% of NATO’s defense spending last year.
But alarm has grown as America has moved toward a more isolationist stance, and as the understanding of a potential threat to Europe from Russia re-emerges, after nearly two years of bloody fighting in Ukraine.
There is no immediate military danger to Europe from Russia, and Western military and political leaders think that Russia is for now contained by its war of attrition in Ukraine. But if Russia ultimately wins in Ukraine, few doubt Moscow’s capacity to rearm completely within three to four years and cause trouble elsewhere. Russian President Vladimir Putin has for years mourned the loss of a Russian empire that encompassed Ukraine and other Eastern European nations including the Baltics.
Much of Europe’s industrial capacity to make weapons has eroded over years of budget cuts, and turning that around is a challenge at a time when most governments face budget constraints amid slow economic growth and aging populations, as well as large political opposition to cutting back on welfare spending to fund defense.
Europe has “systematically demilitarized itself because it didn’t need to spend the money,” thanks to the lack of an apparent threat and U.S. military dominance around the globe, said Anthony King, a professor of war studies at the University of Warwick. “They have basically gone to sleep.”
“Although NATO countries’ combined economic and industrial might dwarfs that of Russia and its allies, we are allowing ourselves to be outproduced,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former NATO Secretary-General. “Ukraine is now in a war of attrition, if we do not get serious on ammunition production the threat of war will likely come closer to us.”
The European Union looks unlikely to keep a promise to supply a million desperately needed artillery shells to Kyiv by this spring, achieving only around a third of that so far. North Korea, an impoverished dictatorship with a population of 25 million, has shipped over a million shells to Russia in the same period, according to Western officials and Russian government statements.
Military spending among NATO countries fell from about 3% of annual economic output during the Cold War to about 1.3% by 2014, according to NATO data. Things began to change after the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, but only slowly. In the past decade, EU defense spending rose 20%, according to the European Parliament. Over the same period, Russia and China boosted their defense budgets by almost 300% and close to 600%, respectively.
A militarily weak Europe is a huge shift for a continent that boasted the world’s best armed forces from at least the early 1500s to the 1940s, a stretch of five centuries in which European armies and naval power carved up the world into global empires. That dominance ended during World War II, when the region’s armies pulverized each other for the second time in roughly two decades. After that, the U.S. and U.S.S.R. emerged as the bigger powers.
Germany’s army, which at the end of the Cold War had half a million men in West Germany and another 300,000 in East Germany, now has 180,000 personnel. West Germany alone had more than 7,000 battle tanks by the 1980s; reunified Germany now has 200, only half of which are likely operational, according to government officials. The country’s industry can make only about three tanks a month, these officials said.
“The armed forces are lacking in everything,” Eva Högl, the parliamentary commissioner for Germany’s armed forces, said as she presented the findings of her report earlier this year. German military bases not only lack armaments and ammunition, but functioning toilets and internet, she said. One attack helicopter unit has been waiting a decade to be fitted with helmets, her findings show.
The Netherlands disbanded its last tank unit in 2011, folding the remaining few tanks into the German army. Conscription across most European countries was scrapped after the Cold War.
While Russia doesn’t disclose data on its weapons manufacturing, statistical lines in its industrial production reports indicate significant growth. The output of finished metal goods—a line that analysts say includes weapons and ammunition—rose by 31% in the first 10 months of the year compared with the period last year. Other lines associated with military output also increased. Production of computers, electronic and optical products rose 34%, and so-called special clothing jumped by over 37%. In contrast, production of medicines was down around 2%.
Germany is currently unable to fight a war of defense and must rearm in light of Russia’s massive military buildup, the commander of Germany’s armed forces said. “We must get used to the idea that we will maybe have to fight a war of defense,” Gen. Carsten Breuer told the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper on Sunday. The reign of peace that society has become accustomed to “exists no more,” he said.
Britain hasn’t had a fully deployable armored division since the 1991 Gulf War, Ben Wallace, who was U.K. Secretary of State for Defence until the end of August, said recently to Parliament.
Sanders said the U.K. had taken a risk by allowing stockpiles to dwindle and its industrial base to atrophy. He said he has spent more time in the past year visiting factories than inspecting troops in the field.
Britain announced its biggest increase in defense spending since the Cold War in 2020. But the overall army size is still expected to shrink to 72,500 full-time troops from a previous target of 82,000. It is replacing its 227 tanks with 148 more-modern versions, but those won’t be deployed until 2027. Of its existing 227 tanks, only 157 can be deployed within 30 days and perhaps only 40 are fully functioning and ready to move, military analysts said, as many are in storage or being upgraded.
The U.K. has pledged to ramp up defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, but only when economic conditions allow.

 

[Orgasmo]

Zelensky's overly optimistic assessments and messages are getting increasingly criticized:

Former and current advisers say lack of realism in president’s messaging is undermining confidence

For more than 650 days in a row, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given at least one video address to the nation — praising his troops, celebrating advances along the front lines and reaffirming resolve in the face of Russian aggression.

The message is always “we’re moving forward”, with the aim of maintaining optimism at home and abroad, according to three people familiar with the communications strategy. The policy is applied at all state levels, from ministries and local administrations to military commanders and includes strict censorship of bad news such as Ukrainian casualty numbers or successful Russian strikes.

But with Ukraine enjoying few military achievements this year and western support faltering, the communications strategy is creating a rift between the presidential administration and military leadership, say officials from the armed forces, former presidential staffers and communication strategists.

Ukrainians question Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘rose-tinted’ speeches

Former and current advisers say lack of realism in president’s messaging is undermining confidence

www.ft.com

 

[Orgasmo]

More about demilitarization



Im really not fan of this mentality where west europe seems to expect east to do all fighting for them, germanys plan clearly to hope that poles stop russia.

I mean look at this

The British military—the leading U.S. military ally and Europe’s biggest defense spender—has only around 150 deployable tanks and perhaps a dozen serviceable long-range artillery pieces. So bare was the cupboard that last year the British military considered sourcing multiple rocket launchers from museums to upgrade and donate to Ukraine, an idea that was dropped.

France, the next biggest spender, has fewer than 90 heavy artillery pieces, equivalent to what Russia loses roughly every month on the Ukraine battlefield.

Denmark has no heavy artillery, submarines or air-defense systems. (They used to have arty but donated all to ukr)

Germany’s army has enough ammunition for two days of battle.


I will post rest of article since its kinda important for future

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/
In the decades since the end of the Cold War, weakened European armies were tolerated by governments across the West because an engaged America, with its vast military muscle, underpinned the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and defense policy in Europe. The U.S. accounted for nearly 70% of NATO’s defense spending last year.
But alarm has grown as America has moved toward a more isolationist stance, and as the understanding of a potential threat to Europe from Russia re-emerges, after nearly two years of bloody fighting in Ukraine.
There is no immediate military danger to Europe from Russia, and Western military and political leaders think that Russia is for now contained by its war of attrition in Ukraine. But if Russia ultimately wins in Ukraine, few doubt Moscow’s capacity to rearm completely within three to four years and cause trouble elsewhere. Russian President Vladimir Putin has for years mourned the loss of a Russian empire that encompassed Ukraine and other Eastern European nations including the Baltics.
Much of Europe’s industrial capacity to make weapons has eroded over years of budget cuts, and turning that around is a challenge at a time when most governments face budget constraints amid slow economic growth and aging populations, as well as large political opposition to cutting back on welfare spending to fund defense.
Europe has “systematically demilitarized itself because it didn’t need to spend the money,” thanks to the lack of an apparent threat and U.S. military dominance around the globe, said Anthony King, a professor of war studies at the University of Warwick. “They have basically gone to sleep.”
“Although NATO countries’ combined economic and industrial might dwarfs that of Russia and its allies, we are allowing ourselves to be outproduced,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former NATO Secretary-General. “Ukraine is now in a war of attrition, if we do not get serious on ammunition production the threat of war will likely come closer to us.”
The European Union looks unlikely to keep a promise to supply a million desperately needed artillery shells to Kyiv by this spring, achieving only around a third of that so far. North Korea, an impoverished dictatorship with a population of 25 million, has shipped over a million shells to Russia in the same period, according to Western officials and Russian government statements.
Military spending among NATO countries fell from about 3% of annual economic output during the Cold War to about 1.3% by 2014, according to NATO data. Things began to change after the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, but only slowly. In the past decade, EU defense spending rose 20%, according to the European Parliament. Over the same period, Russia and China boosted their defense budgets by almost 300% and close to 600%, respectively.
A militarily weak Europe is a huge shift for a continent that boasted the world’s best armed forces from at least the early 1500s to the 1940s, a stretch of five centuries in which European armies and naval power carved up the world into global empires. That dominance ended during World War II, when the region’s armies pulverized each other for the second time in roughly two decades. After that, the U.S. and U.S.S.R. emerged as the bigger powers.
Germany’s army, which at the end of the Cold War had half a million men in West Germany and another 300,000 in East Germany, now has 180,000 personnel. West Germany alone had more than 7,000 battle tanks by the 1980s; reunified Germany now has 200, only half of which are likely operational, according to government officials. The country’s industry can make only about three tanks a month, these officials said.
“The armed forces are lacking in everything,” Eva Högl, the parliamentary commissioner for Germany’s armed forces, said as she presented the findings of her report earlier this year. German military bases not only lack armaments and ammunition, but functioning toilets and internet, she said. One attack helicopter unit has been waiting a decade to be fitted with helmets, her findings show.
The Netherlands disbanded its last tank unit in 2011, folding the remaining few tanks into the German army. Conscription across most European countries was scrapped after the Cold War.
While Russia doesn’t disclose data on its weapons manufacturing, statistical lines in its industrial production reports indicate significant growth. The output of finished metal goods—a line that analysts say includes weapons and ammunition—rose by 31% in the first 10 months of the year compared with the period last year. Other lines associated with military output also increased. Production of computers, electronic and optical products rose 34%, and so-called special clothing jumped by over 37%. In contrast, production of medicines was down around 2%.
Germany is currently unable to fight a war of defense and must rearm in light of Russia’s massive military buildup, the commander of Germany’s armed forces said. “We must get used to the idea that we will maybe have to fight a war of defense,” Gen. Carsten Breuer told the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper on Sunday. The reign of peace that society has become accustomed to “exists no more,” he said.
Britain hasn’t had a fully deployable armored division since the 1991 Gulf War, Ben Wallace, who was U.K. Secretary of State for Defence until the end of August, said recently to Parliament.
Sanders said the U.K. had taken a risk by allowing stockpiles to dwindle and its industrial base to atrophy. He said he has spent more time in the past year visiting factories than inspecting troops in the field.
Britain announced its biggest increase in defense spending since the Cold War in 2020. But the overall army size is still expected to shrink to 72,500 full-time troops from a previous target of 82,000. It is replacing its 227 tanks with 148 more-modern versions, but those won’t be deployed until 2027. Of its existing 227 tanks, only 157 can be deployed within 30 days and perhaps only 40 are fully functioning and ready to move, military analysts said, as many are in storage or being upgraded.
The U.K. has pledged to ramp up defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, but only when economic conditions allow.

I maintain my assessment that Ukraine will fold in 6 to 8 months from now if the West does not massively increase its support. To reverse the current hole Ukraine is in, the following needs to happen:

1. NATO will need to provide thousands of artillery pieces, tanks, armor vehicles, helicopters and jets in the next quarter.

2. There has to be NATO advisors attached to every Ukrainian company on the ground to facilitate training and operation of NATO weapons. They need to be able to take over local command if needed.

3. Ukrainian males aged 16 to 60 need to be mobilized to fill the depleted frontline ranks, and women also needs to be drafted to fill non-combat roles.

Essentially, NATO needs to be much more involved than it is now and Ukraine needs to go all in. Either commit to the fight or don't. Short of doing that, the balance will tilt more and more towards Russia.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Really good video of Ukrainian President and pro Russia leader facing off.

I like the part where Zelensky corners Orban and gives him an earful. Wish I knew what was said to the prick.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

I maintain my assessment that Ukraine will fold in 6 to 8 months from now if the West does not massively increase its support. To reverse the current hole Ukraine is in, the following needs to happen:

1. NATO will need to provide thousands of artillery pieces, tanks, armor vehicles, helicopters and jets in the next quarter.

2. There has to be NATO advisors attached to every Ukrainian company on the ground to facilitate training and operation of NATO weapons. They need to be able to take over local command if needed.

3. Ukrainian males aged 16 to 60 need to be mobilized to fill the depleted frontline ranks, and women also needs to be drafted to fill non-combat roles.

Essentially, NATO needs to be much more involved than it is now and Ukraine needs to go all in. Either commit to the fight or don't. Short of doing that, the balance will tilt more and more towards Russia.

I agree they can use all the aid they can get no matter what it is. I don’t agree that UKR will fold in that time from you have, UKR is in no position to push Russia out however building better defensive lines and not allowing Russia to gain more ground in itself is a win.
With the amount of men and equipment Russia is losing it can’t go on forever. Its economy has switched to a war time economy and is not sustainable with Putins crazy demands for weaponry. UKR just needs to keep loses as minimal as possible while Putler cuts the nose off his own face.

 

[Orgasmo]

I agree they can use all the aid they can get no matter what it is. I don’t agree that UKR will fold in that time from you have, UKR is in no position to push Russia out however building better defensive lines and not allowing Russia to gain more ground in itself is a win.
With the amount of men and equipment Russia is losing it can’t go on forever. Its economy has switched to a war time economy and is not sustainable with Putins crazy demands for weaponry. UKR just needs to keep loses as minimal as possible while Putler cuts the nose off his own face.

The problem is that Ukraine cannot afford to grind it out with Russia. Russia has major advantages in artillery, armor, helicopters, ammunition, jets, electronic warfare and manpower. It is highly doubtful that Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russians than it is suffering, despite the upbeat propaganda. This is the most frustrating aspect of this whole thing because so many here pretend Ukraine is achieving some magical 8:1 kill ratio. Contrary to popular belief, Russians aren't stupid. They might be slow to learn and adapt due to organizational ineffectiveness, but they will eventually do so. It is precisely this "Ukraine is winning" narrative the MSM and Ukrainian government kept pushing that we ended up in this hole, and now everyone is acting surprised. A stalemate is Ukraine's to lose given it cannot meaningfully replenish its losses.

It's now or never for Ukraine.