International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V14

[Cid]

I’m like 70-30 on funding this so generally I am in favor. I’m not in blind favor though which is why I was curious how it’s being funded. Apparently that’s an unforgivable sin.

I'll stop being an asshole for a second.

What you asked is not an unforgivable sin.


What you asked is a question that on the surface seems reasonable but is in reality impossible to answer accurately.

Professionals with tertiary educations in defense economics won't be able to answer your question accurately. If they try to answer it then it comes with a massive caveat because they can't give you a remotely accurate answer.


There are some exceptions to the pricing system... but by and large the value of military aid given is based on replacement cost and that's because calculating a "true" cost is just not possible. It can't be done.

But a value has to be assigned. Hence replacement value.

It is not the original price.
It is not the depreciated price.
It is the replacement price.

It is not even remotely accurate. Sometimes the replacement is a completely different system.
Sometimes by American MIC standards the weapon is obsolete
Sometimes it would have cost more to destroy than to send
Sometimes it will have cost money just to store and would have never been used anyways.
etc etc.

But once again a value has to be assigned to keep people like yourself happy.



How does my dumb ass know this?

A few months into this war a youtuber who posted video game content cracked the shits with the quality of the media's reporting on this war because it was garbage.

He then proceeded to upload weekly hour long power point presentations on various aspects of the war with an emphasis placed on his area of expertise... defense economics.

And it has been pretty damned successful. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of views for each for power point presentations.


If you want to get a basic idea of why I've been an asshole pick a title that interests you and watch a bit of a video and you'll quickly realize how difficult this stuff is.

https://www.youtube.com/@PerunAU/videos

 

[Rob Battisti]

I'll stop being an asshole for a second.

What you asked is not an unforgivable sin.


What you asked is a question that on the surface seems reasonable but is in reality impossible to answer accurately.

Professionals with tertiary educations in defense economics won't be able to answer your question accurately. If they try to answer it then it comes with a massive caveat because they can't give you a remotely accurate answer.


There are some exceptions to the pricing system... but by and large the value of military aid given is based on replacement cost and that's because calculating a "true" cost is just not possible. It can't be done.

But a value has to be assigned. Hence replacement value.

It is not the original price.
It is not the depreciated price.
It is the replacement price.

It is not even remotely accurate. Sometimes the replacement is a completely different system.
Sometimes by American MIC standards the weapon is obsolete
Sometimes it would have cost more to destroy than to send
Sometimes it will have cost money just to store and would have never been used anyways.

But once again a value has to be assigned to keep people like yourself happy.



How does my dumb ass know this?

A few months into this war a youtuber who posted video game content cracked the shits with the quality of the media's reporting on this war because it was garbage.

He then proceeded to upload weekly hour long power point presentations on various aspects of the war with an emphasis placed on his area of expertise... defense economics.

And it has been pretty damned successful. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of views for each for power point presentations.


If you want to get a basic idea of why I've been an asshole pick a title that interests you and watch a bit of a video and you'll quickly realize how difficult this stuff is.

https://www.youtube.com/@PerunAU/videos

See, I appreciate that.

I don’t think we should shut off funding. I also don’t like the idea of blank checks. This feels way closer to an unaccountable, opaque, never going to find out money pit than I am comfortable with.

At some point, the “this is in our interest” has to be weighed against those things and reexamined.

 

[Cid]

See, I appreciate that.

I don’t think we should shut off funding. I also don’t like the idea of blank checks. This feels way closer to an unaccountable, opaque, never going to find out money pit than I am comfortable with.

At some point, the “this is in our interest” has to be weighed against those things and reexamined.

A while back I found and posted a picture of a HARM-88 that had been "intercepted" by Russia. Which was highly likely if not certainly bullshit.

What was interesting though was the expiry date stamped on it.

That date was in the 90's. Almost 3 decades ago. Chances are it was never going to be used. The only reason it could be used is because you guys have humidity controlled + temperature controlled facilities to store munitions.

Which obviously cost money.


Starting to see the difficulty in accurately pricing this stuff? Highly likely you saved money there but that missile likely had a "cost" assigned to it. Your margin of error is incalculable in this instance.



If you want something you can read the WSJ did a reasonable bit of work with this article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost/

If you want the abridged version. You're sending old stuff over and getting new stuff for yourself. The money for weapons predominately (90% according to some studies) stays in America.


If you're struggling to pick a video I think this one is a much watch for most Americans:


Details how your spending as number #1 is by virtue of first mover advantage an incredibly efficient and a self perpetuating cycle. Goes a long way to dispelling the myth that allies are a cost when by and large they're actually subsidizing you (even the shit ones who don't want to spend what they promised)

 

[Rob Battisti]

A while back I found and posted a picture of a HARM-88 that had been "intercepted" by Russia. Which was highly likely if not certainly bullshit.

What was interesting though was the expiry date stamped on it.

That date was in the 90's. Almost 3 decades ago. Chances are it was never going to be used. The only reason it could be used is because you guys have humidity controlled + temperature controlled facilities to store munitions.

Which obviously cost money.


Starting to see the difficulty in accurately pricing this stuff? Highly likely you saved money there but that missile likely had a "cost" assigned to it. Your margin of error is incalculable in this instance.



If you want something you can read the WSJ did a reasonable bit of work with this article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost/

If you want the abridged version. You're sending old stuff over and getting new stuff for yourself. The money for weapons predominately (90% according to some studies) stays in America.


If you're struggling to pick a video I think this one is a much watch for most Americans:


Details how your spending as number #1 is by virtue of first mover advantage an incredibly efficient and a self perpetuating cycle. Goes a long way to dispelling the myth that allies are a cost when by and large they're actually subsidizing you (even the shit ones who don't want to spend what they promised)

Yeah I don’t really have much issue with the donation of old equipment so long as it doesn’t negatively impact our military readiness.

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[Goonerview]

You’re pretty fuckin dumb if you think America wants this war. A war over Taiwan would devastate the world economy

Do you not get this?

You always launch into personal attacks when you reply to me.

Welcome to my ignore list.

 

[Joe]

Hilarious considering the tanks the russians have been recently been rolling out

 

[PEB]

I mean holy shit, a tax payer asking how much has been spent sent you into a spiral. Should all tax payers just blindly write a blank check?

Failure to assist will very likely cost trillions more an decades of fighting. Russia officials have talked about going to German boarder or even Frances boarder. Etherway Putler still seeking expansion into other countries. By making him rethink that strategy in Ukraine with a smaller military Russian economy failing could change the plans.

 

[SandisLL]

For U.K tanks weren't so important therefore they does have low number of them.

If about Germany and ammunition I don't trust arguments that they does have ammunition only for 2 days.
Maybe they had reported only relatively new stuff, not older than manufactured 20 years ago etc.
Because during Cold War they had spent a lot and had approx 3000 tanks.
This means that also at least 3m ammo units for tanks....
Etc....

However if about 35 mm autocannons ammo it is reality that they mainly does have stuff manufactured in Switzerland, these doesn't sign re export permit ...therefore Germany can't send ammo purchased from Switzerland to Ukr...

Also while it is possible to purchase somewhere 155 mm shells as replacement for stockpile, with 35 mm ammunition awailable to purchase problems are very serious....

 

[PEB]

 

[Hog-train]

The best case scenario is a peaceful status quo. The last thing we need is the US sailing warships through the Taiwan straights, provoking China.

War-hawks in the US and weapons manufacturer lobbyists want war, so they can make money … do you not get this?

The whole point of arming Taiwan to the teeth is so that it remains a status quo. Make it so painful and hard to conquer Taiwan, that it's not worth the risk - the porcupine strategy.

 

[Blayt7hh]

You always launch into personal attacks when you reply to me.

Welcome to my ignore list.

I make a pretty good habit of not insulting anyone until they insult me. So, guess who struck first? Now you want to tap out?

Don’t give a shit. Ignore me then. You’ve been exposed as nothing but a weak punk that hates America without reason

 

[ViD]

Can’t wait for EU to accept Ukraine and Moldova, then I’m assuming we will witness Spanxit, Franxit etc

Imagine accepting countries poor as fuck and more corrupt than Russia that they’re “opposing”. And that’s when Poland, Slovakia, Hungary are blocking Ukrainian goods from their markets

EU are officially cuckolds.

Personally I think Russia, China, India should be celebrating, that’s the end of Europe as we know it.

 

[ViD]

I truly hope western generals actually believe it.

Congrats, you destroyed Russian military, certainly Ukraine doesn’t need any more money, they’ve done their job

 

[PEB]

I truly hope western generals actually believe it.

Congrats, you destroyed Russian military, certainly Ukraine doesn’t need any more money, they’ve done their job

I posted this at the beginning that American military believes Putin can ill afford to have 1/2 million die in this war. Funny Putin chief critic disappeared. We all know how this ends.

 

[SandisLL]

Today was actually bad day for Ukraine despite talks about stuff that Ukr might prepare to start accession talks.
Sorry, some country does have such talks years in row.


Reality looks not funny for Ukr.
Zelensky wasn't invited to attend summit in Bruxelles. It is clear sign.

If with this isn't enough.....
1. Supposed 50 b EUR assistance package yet is just in discussions phase..

Additionally......
2. Marco financial assistance bill for January portion isn't yet even in discussions phase ......and it is very bad sign.

3. A lot of supposed warrant letters for January too are ....in discussion process and this isn't good for ukr.

__
Accession talks with EU might be decade + long nice talk period.....

 

[SandisLL]

Additionally IMHO Ukrainians are dumb if they are happy with elections results in Poland.

Yes, new government is more pro European oriented and initially might look more nice for Ukrainians.

While unlike conservatives they are slow in decisions making.....
This means that supplies might be delayed due to relatively long discussions.
The same Duda and former PM were more comfortable for Ukr because fast decisions making about technical and military aid....

 

[SandisLL]

For me doesn't likes how a lot of pro ukr oriented ppl are spreading idiotic things about Slovakia and Poland.

For example : texts that polish government had not beared vote for trust . ...almost like impeachment....


While technically it was just this : 1 version of supposed cabinet of ministers wasn't approved and 2 nd version was approved.
Plain and simple stuff if someone doesn't needs clickbait content.

 

[SandisLL]

Additionally Poland never had banned any kind of food transit.....Never....
Pretty opposite, they even removed fees for Ukr to some extent.


If Ukraine is thinking that truck with Poland's number plates should wait 6-72 hours and truck with Ukr number plates in the same time might have red carpet rolled with fast pass ....then....

Also polish trucks drivers never had blocked military aid or humanitarian aid..

They just are slowing down commercial trucks traffic from Ukraine.
For a reason .

 

[PEB]

This sums it up for Republicans:

"
Putin loyalists in Moscow celebrated when Republicans voted to block Ukraine aid last week.

The host of one Kremlin-run show literally said: “Well done, Republicans!"

Folks, if you’re being celebrated by Russian propagandists, it might be time to rethink what you’re doing."