International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V13

[Blayt7hh]

He didn't do shit! Did you read my reply to his post?
Who is everyone? Your little stupid friends in the Peanut Gallery? The ones you keep high fiving ang giving likes to?
Why do you even bother to write to me? Just fuck off and put me on ignore.

 

[The Diplomat]

The context of them losing? Where?
There is no context of them losing, only if you put it there.
It is your interpretation of what I wrote.
Let us see how they are in 12 months means exactly that. They could be doing well, they could be doing poorly.
The ability you people have to assume things is amazing.

You act like we haven't been having this same song and dance for over a year. It's obvious you have always either wanted, or expected Ukraine to lose.

 

[Denter]

Really ? like what ? how could have Putins ass been kissed before?

This kind of binary thinking is ridiculous, and sadly common. Russia doesn't have interests, only "Putin's obsessions" or "appeasement" or whatever crimestop script the media is running to keep people in their fantasy about The New Hitler (Part 47).

But realistically, the idea probably really got running after Russian intervention in Syria, which pissed off certain factions in the US government.

 

[Limbo Pete]

I never said they did dumbass.

You compared this war to Vietnam, which is totally nonsensical

 

[San Marino]

Buddy,
He clearly quoted you, 15-months ago, saying that Ukraine was gonna run out of people in 12-months.
You were clearly wrong then.
You claim to have been an US Army officer, then fucking act like it. Take your L and move on you little crybaby.

Oh, here comes @Darkballs with his two cents. Did you read my reply to Isa's post? No, I was not wrong then. He did not prove shit.
You claim to be an ex-Marine and now an attorney. Act like one. Take your L and move on you little crybaby.
Why are you still writing to me? Put me on ignore and fuck off!

 

[San Marino]

You compared this war to Vietnam, which is totally nonsensical

How many different types of wars are there Limbo?
Good wars? Bad wars? Happy wars? Sad wars?
I thought wars had to do with people killing each other and dying. Has that changed in over 2,000 years?
I think there is only one type of war. Did they teach you something different in school?

 

[DEVILsSON]

You must have missed the 3 times I said I was wrong in this thread. One recently relating to North Korean Howitzers. Ask @GhostZ06 about that. I've even admitted to being wrong to @Limbo Pete in this thread. Oh, I'll admit to being wrong when I'm wrong. The stuff you are referring to I was not wrong and there is nothing to admit. You, however, have not owned up to when you were wrong.

No integrity.

Wow you literally took what I said, reworded it and then said it back to me. That's an impressive level of delusion. I bet you even thought that was clever...

 

[Hog-train]

@San Marino - Dude stop polluting the thread with your incessant arguing. You're on some pre-school level bullshit. We're not your therapy session.

 

[Strychnine]

Just a friendly moderator reminder to keep the discourse civil.

 

[GhostZ06]

The Leopards, meanwhile, are used to cover troops advancing in Bradley Fighting Vehicles through "Russia's most advanced and complex layered defenses," according to Vitaliy, a tank commander with the 47th who says he has survived anti-tank guided missiles, loitering munitions and mines. Compared to the Soviet-era T-72 tanks Vitaliy was used to before, the Leopard is "superior in speed, accuracy, sight capabilities and armor."

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...dins-are-proving-too-wily-for-russian-gunners

 

[GhostZ06]

Spoiler

 

[GhostZ06]

Hanna Maliar, upon whom many media outlets, including The War Zone, relied for updates on Kyiv’s military operations, and the other five deputy defense ministers dismissed hours before Zelensky’s arrival in the U.S.

The announcement, made on a government Telegram channel, did not give a reason for the action, which comes two after former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov was fired.

Under Ukraine’s Law on Executive Bodies, when a minister is dismissed, the first deputy minister and deputy ministers are dismissed by the Cabinet of Ministers.

Citing “high-level sources in the Ukrainian government,” Ukrainian Pravda reported Monday that “all the deputy ministers resigned voluntarily at newly-appointed defense minister Rustem Umierov's request and will not be going back to their positions. Consultations are currently underway on candidates for the post of deputy defense minister.”

 

[GhostZ06]

Russian milbloggers say a Ukrainian weapons warehouse in the Krasny-Liman area of Donetsk Oblast was destroyed by a FAB-500M-62 winged glide bomb dropped by an Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber.

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[Denter]

Do we know what Reznikov & team were fired for?

 

[Limbo Pete]

How many different types of wars are there Limbo?
Good wars? Bad wars? Happy wars? Sad wars?
I thought wars had to do with people killing each other and dying. Has that changed in over 2,000 years?
I think there is only one type of war. Did they teach you something different in school?

You called this "Ukraine's Vietnam" which makes absolutely no sense lmao

 

[Anewt]

The country is literally on the verge of deletion. I understand pacifists and religious folk who don't want to fight, but Ukraine isn't legally allowed to import anyone else. Survival of the fittest is the name of the game right now.

Yeah. Tough position to be in. Especially for those with families on both sides

 

[Rod1]

Yes.
@Isa did not prove shit. He only thinks he did.
Out of the 6 posts he referenced from me, none said that Ukraine would lose this war.
I talk about Ukraine losing lots of soldiers, lack of replacements, that does not equate to Ukraine losing this conflict.
Well, it does now. If there was a doubt 12 months ago, there is no doubt today.

You claimed that Ukraine would lose in 12 months that Ukrainians won round 1 (first month) but Russia would outlast Ukraine.

 

[lsa]

He didn't do shit! Did you read my reply to his post?
Who is everyone? Your little stupid friends in the Peanut Gallery? The ones you keep high fiving ang giving likes to?
Why do you even bother to write to me? Just fuck off and put me on ignore.

Yes, your response was a joke.
Its clear as day for the grown ups in the room.
You are a waste of time.
And your only "friend" is a unemployed "communist" that thinks people that steal from their work or slack off are heroes.
That SHOULD make you think.
But it wont, since thinking is not really your thing,

 

[Rholk]

Looks like the missile that hit the market might indeed have been an (accidental) Ukrainian one

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UA POV: Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy - NY Times
News

nytimes

Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy
The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly and systematically attacked civilians and struck schools, markets and residences as a deliberate tactic to instill fear in the populace. In Kostiantynivka in April, they shelled homes and a preschool, killing six.

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction ora guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

The likely missile failure happened amid the back-and-forth battles common in the surrounding area. Russian forces shelled Kostiantynivka the night before; Ukrainian artillery fire from the city was reported in a local Telegram group just minutes before the strike on the market.

A spokesman for Ukraine’s armed forces said the country’s security service is investigating the incident, and under national law can’t comment further.

Ukrainian authorities initially tried to prevent journalists with The Times from accessing the missile debris and impact area in the strike’s immediate aftermath. But the reporters were eventually able to get to the scene, interview witnesses and collect remnants of the weapon used.

The Strike
Security camera footage shows that the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from behind Russian lines.

As the sound of the approaching missile is heard, at least four pedestrians appear to simultaneously turn their heads toward the incoming sound. They face the camera — in the direction of Ukrainian-held territory. Moments before it strikes, the missile’s reflection is visible as it passes over two parked cars, showing it traveling from the northwest.

Video

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The missile’s warhead detonates a few yards above the ground shortly before impact, blasting metal fragments outward. The resulting crater and damage extending from the point of detonation is consistent with a missile coming from a northwesterly route, according to an explosives expert and a Times analysis.

Image

A small impact crater to the southeast of circular scarring caused by metal fragments when a missile detonated a split second earlier.

The impact point of the missile’s fuselage in relation to the scarring indicates that the missile flew into Kostiantynivka from a northwesterly direction.Credit...The New York Times

A Suspected Ukrainian Launch Site
Further evidence reveals that minutes before the strike, the Ukrainian military launched two surface-to-air missiles toward the Russian front line from the town of Druzhkivka, 10 miles northwest of Kostiantynivka.

Reporters with The Times were in Druzhkivka when they heard an outgoing missile launch at 2 p.m., followed a few minutes later by a second. By chance, one member of the team recorded the first launch in a voice message.

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Residents in Druzhkivka also reported an outgoing launch at that time on a local Telegram group. “One more,” a post at 2:03 p.m. said, referring to a second missile launch. Locals near the launches described them as abnormally loud — beyond the sounds of war they have become accustomed to — which tracks with witness accounts of past Buk launches.

The timing of these launches is consistent with the time frame for the missile that struck the market in Kostiantynivka, around 2:04 p.m.

Map in Eastern Ukraine showing where missiles were launched, where they hit and territory occupied by Russia.

Druzhkivka

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Missiles launched

at 2:00 p.m. and a

few minutes later.

Kostiantynivka

HELD BY RUSSIA

as of Sept. 6

Missile hit market

from northwest

at 2:04 p.m.

Kyiv

UKRAINE

5 miles

UKRAINE

Druzhkivka

Bakhmut

Missiles launched

at 2:00 p.m. and a

few minutes later.

Kostiantynivka

HELD BY

RUSSIA

as of

Sept. 6

Missile hit market

from northwest

at 2:04 p.m.

Kyiv

UKRAINE

5 miles

Additionally, two witnesses who spoke to The Times said they saw the missiles being fired from Druzhkivka in the direction of the Russian front line around the time of the strike; one of them said he saw the missiles going in the direction of Kostiantynivka. A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Druzhkivka, who asked to remain anonymous, also said he heard two missile launches at around the same time.

One of the witnesses also said the missiles were launched from fields on the outskirts of the town, a place residents say is used by the Ukrainian military and from which they have previously seen air defense missiles.

Times reporters who visited the site saw indications that it had recently been used by the military, including trenches, trash pits and wide tracks consistent with a large military vehicle.

Another key indicator: scorch marks. Various ground-launched air defense missiles are fired from the rear of a large vehicle and burn the surrounding turf when they are fired. Analysis of before-and-after satellite imagery shows new scorch marks around the trenches on the day of the strike, possibly indicating that the site was used for launching missiles.

Several small trenches were dug in an area where residents said Ukraine’s military launches air defense missiles. The ground had recently been scorched and grass appeared to have been flattened by a large vehicle.Credit...The New York Times

The Missile
In the aftermath of the attack, Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces used a missile fired by an S-300 air defense system, which Russia has used both to intercept aircraft and strike targets on the ground. But an S-300 missile carries a different warhead from the one that exploded in Kostiantynivka.

The metal facades of buildings closest to the explosion were perforated with hundreds of square or rectangular holes, probably made by cube-like objects blown outward from the missile.

Measurements of the holes — and fragments found at the scene — are consistent in size and shape with one weapon in particular: the 9M38 missile, which is fired by the mobile Buk antiaircraft vehicle. Ukraine is known to use the Buk system, as is Russia.

Some of the holes are less than 10 millimeters in width, while others are slightly larger. The 9M38 contains two different sizes of solid-metal cubic fragments: eight millimeters and 13 millimeters across.

The size and shape of impact holes caused by fragmentation are consistent with a 9M38 missile.Credit...The New York Times

Image

A deformed cuboid pulled out of a crater is consistent with the size of metal fragments in a 9M38 air defense missile fired by a Buk launcher.Credit...The New York Times

A Times reporter also reviewed other missile fragments recovered from multiple locations in Ukraine that had been fired by Russian S-300, S-400 and Buk air defense systems, as well as two different American air defense systems. Their shapes and measurements show that the damage at the market site was most likely caused by an 9M38.

Two independent military bomb-disposal experts, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak candidly, came to the same conclusion and said that the fragments and damage at the strike site are most consistent with an 9M38.

Several witnesses either heard or saw Ukrainian forces firing surface-to-air missiles from Druzhkivka toward Kostiantynivka at the time of the market strike. And evidence collected at the market shows that the missile came from that direction.

Why the missile, which has a maximum range of just over 17 miles, may have landed in Kostiantynivka is unclear — though it’s possible it malfunctioned and crashed before hitting its intended target.

In any case, at such a short range — less than 10 miles — the missile is most likely to have landed with unspent fuel in its rocket motor, which would detonate or burn upon impact, offering a possible explanation for the widespread scorch marks at the market.

Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Washington, D.C., and Aric Toler from New York. Additional research was contributed by Rob McDonagh of Storyful.

Christoph Koettl is a Visual Investigations journalist with the Times video team, specializing in the analysis of satellite imagery, video and other visual evidence. He has shared in two Pulitzer Prizes for coverage of the civilian toll of U.S. air and drone strikes, and Russian atrocities in Ukraine. More about Christoph Koettl