How the U.S. sees Ukraine’s push: No stalemate, but no breakthrough
As Biden administration officials assess Ukraine’s slow progress in this summer’s counteroffensive, they have been candidly discussing with Kyiv what they see as “lessons learned.” The bottom line for the administration is that
this war will probably grind into next year — and that the United States and its allies must remain steadfast in helping Ukraine keep pushing forward.
I heard this same sentiment across all levels of the U.S. government in recent days. The summer has been frustrating and, in some ways, disappointing for Ukraine and its Western backers. But rather than look for a quick diplomatic exit ramp, most senior U.S. officials appear more convinced than ever of the need to stand fast with Kyiv. The United States, in their view, cannot be seen to abandon its ally.
“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” national security adviser
Jake Sullivan told reporters on Wednesday, during a week when the media reported unnamed senior officials voicing pessimism about Ukraine’s progress. Perhaps hoping to bolster spirits in Kyiv, Sullivan countered: “We are seeing [Ukraine] continue to take territory on a methodical, systematic basis.”
This commitment to continued support doesn’t mean that U.S. officials don’t have criticisms of how Ukrainian commanders have
conducted the counteroffensive. They have been offering detailed guidance to their counterparts, often prefaced with a recognition that no currently serving U.S. officer has fought the kind of relentless, brutal, World War I-style of combat that Ukraine has faced.
The starting point in this assessment is that Ukrainian forces aren’t likely to reach the Black Sea and cut off Russia’s land route to Crimea before winter sets in, as they had hoped. U.S. officials still think the Ukrainians can significantly breach Russian positions this year, as they pass beyond Russia’s hardened first and second lines of defense. U.S. officials believe Kyiv’s mobile units could then move quickly east and west, confounding Russian defenders.
But Ukraine probably won’t deal any decisive blow before year’s end. That means a continuation of this grueling war into 2024 and beyond, and a continuation of the heavy casualties and emotional trauma for both sides. U.S. officials believe strategic patience remains the best weapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who still thinks he can outlast Ukraine and the West.
Pentagon officials have urged their Ukrainian counterparts to prioritize better and concentrate their forces on potential breakout points along the 600-mile front. Ukraine initially placed equal emphasis on three axes, rather than concentrating on the main thrust south through Zaporizhzhia toward the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is said to have responded, finally, by moving some units toward the south from Bakhmut and other areas in the East where, despite U.S. arguments, they had remained entrenched.
American commanders have long believed that the Ukrainians waste artillery fire in crushing barrages that emulate Soviet tactics. By one U.S. estimate, the Ukrainians have fired 2 million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition since the war began, nearly exhausting Western stockpiles. U.S. officials urge Ukraine instead to weight its artillery fires toward the most important targets and use them to advance quickly toward their objectives.
Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities along the sprawling front. On all these points, U.S. officials believe the Ukrainians are responding positively. But the discussion has been prickly in recent weeks.
As Biden administration officials assess the likelihood that the war will continue into next year and perhaps beyond, they’re considering several important new augmentations of Western support. There’s growing backing in Washington for providing rocket-launched cluster munitions, for example, which could strike deeper than the artillery-fired versions the United States began supplying last month.
The United States is also working hard to plan a Ukrainian “force of the future” that could deter continued Russian aggression. The F-16s that will begin arriving in a few months will be part of that, but U.S. officials are working with allies on many other weapons systems and training.
Ukraine and its supporters continue to plead for long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, that could hit deep behind Russian lines. But the Pentagon continues to resist, largely because officials fear the United States doesn’t have enough ATACMS to supply Ukraine without undercutting its own readiness for any future conflict with China.
With Ukrainian forces stymied on the ground, U.S. officials believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky will take the fight increasingly to Russian territory and occupied Crimea.
Friday’s reported Ukrainian attacks — with 42 drones launched at Crimea and a missile aimed at Moscow, according to Russian reports — is a foretaste of what’s ahead. The Biden administration’s position is that it doesn’t encourage or enable Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, but officials do expect more.
Perhaps the best example in military history of a long bloody fight against a stronger power that ended in eventual victory was the American Revolution. Along the way, there were many periods of demoralization, backbiting, complaints about insufficient foreign support and, occasionally, despair. But the rebels stayed in the field, and the British eventually withdrew.
Ukraine has entered a season of discontent, with recriminations on all sides, because of the sluggish counteroffensive. But this war is far from over.
