International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V12

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San Marino said:
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Campaign Assessment, 23 June 2023
Key Takeaways:
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed.
  • Early reports following Prigozhin’s statements suggest that Russian internal security forces are activating in response to Prigozhin’s statements and possible Wagner moves, primarily in Moscow and Rostov, and the Kremlin appears opposed to Prigozhin’s actions.
  • Prigozhin set informational conditions for this effort earlier in the day by accusing the Russian MoD and unnamed oligarchs of deceiving Putin and the Russian public in order to launch the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • Prigozhin likely intends to truly conduct an armed rebellion against the Russian MoD, rather than expecting Kremlin support to compel MoD leadership changes or only escalating rhetorically.
  • It is therefore most likely that Prigozhin fully intends for Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against Moscow.
  • An armed Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
  • Prigozhin’s apparent start of an armed rebellion is the culmination of his campaign to retain control over his military forces, and he likely views the rebellion as an existential survival effort.
  • Prigozhin’s likely intention was to gain the allegiance of senior Russian officers and military personnel, but he is unlikely to secure sufficient military support considering that Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin denounced Prigozhin’s call for armed rebellion.
  • Even if the Wagner Group can credibly threaten the MoD, Putin is incredibly unlikely to acquiesce to a successful effort by Prigozhin to topple the MoD.
  • Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on June 23, primarily targeting a Ukrainian airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • Russian federal subjects and the Wagner Group continue efforts to conceal the true scale of Russian and Wagner losses in Ukraine.
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What is your opinion of Prigozhin saying that the war was started by the Defense Ministry based on lies? This is one of Russia's premier mercs.
 
The Diplomat said:
What is your opinion of Prigozhin saying that the war was started by the Defense Ministry based on lies? This is one of Russia's premier mercs.
Click to expand...
I don't think.
Most likely China indirectly had encouraged Putin for purely financial long term gains for China IF russia will be as enemy vs west.

+ nationalists and Dugin's " Russian World ". Imperialists dreaming with time to rule world. It isn't just to restore Warshaw block and Cold War...it is more...
More close to Japan before WW2 ...

Then KGB and GRU officers....
Most likely informants and traitors working for russia in Ukraine had reported them what money paying curators wished to listen.
Informants and traitors are paid really well and might had told curators stuff they want to hear.

Therefore Putin and United Russia party were shocked that Ukr started to resist and government didn't had rushed to hide in foreign countries...
 
The Diplomat said:
What is your opinion of Prigozhin saying that the war was started by the Defense Ministry based on lies?
Click to expand...
I think Prigozhin is trying to gain Russian support by demoralizing the Russian MoD. He has put himself in a tough spot. He is likely to lose support from Putin. All-in-all, I think it was a terrible move on his part. What if one of his own takes him out? Would that be the end of Wagner as we know it?
 
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San Marino said:
I think Prigozhin is trying to gain Russian support by demoralizing the Russian MoD. He has put himself in a tough spot. He is likely to lose support from Putin. All-in-all, I think it was a terrible move on his part.
Click to expand...
Is Prigozhin really trying launch a coup in Moscow? Hard to believe that Putin won't side with the MoD after this nonsense and give the general order to neutralize Prigozhin.
 
The situation in Ukraine with so called " counter offensive " isn't good.

Looks that due to informants and sattelites Ukr at all can't safely use large columns.
Russia had enough time to prepare defense lines and to install shitload with mines.
+ Zemledelya mine planting MRLS is marketing plot because the same stuff might be done with casual 122mm MRLS launcher...like Grad.
Missiles for this purpose were casual mass production even in USSR times and they really had produced damn a lot of them.

Grad launcher most common model is with 40 barrels ...
There were attempts to sell Prima with 50 barrels.
Prima appeared too clumsy for combat MRLS so...
50 barrels and call it Zemledelya device + use another chassis.
 
nhbfan8080 said:
Is Prigozhin really trying launch a coup in Moscow? Hard to believe that Putin won't side with the MoD after this nonsense and give the general order to neutralize Prigozhin.
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Not likely.
Prigozin was happy with idea quickly annex all Ukraine.
He doesn't blames Putin but Shoigu.

Maybe this might be used as reason to remove Shoigu.

Why it is important?
Putin alone can't launch nuclear weapons for example.
One from 5 keys does have Russian MoD.
One...Patrushev.
One ...Putin..
Then there at least 2 other " keys ".

+ even more valid reason is that Shoigu is in control for MoD budget :D;)$ usage and Putin ofc had increased financing.
A lot of $$$$.
 
Give Prigozin all he needs
SandisLL said:
Not likely.
Prigozin was happy with idea quickly annex all Ukraine.
He doesn't blames Putin but Shoigu.

Maybe this might be used as reason to remove Shoigu.

Why it is important?
Putin alone can't launch nuclear weapons for example.
One from 5 keys does have Russian MoD.
One...Patrushev.
One ...Putin..
Then there at least 2 other " keys ".

+ even more valid reason is that Shoigu is in control for MoD budget :D;)$ usage and Putin ofc had increased financing.
A lot of $$$$.
Click to expand...

Yea? And what about so called 'dead hand'. That is able to launch nukes even if Putin and Co are obliterated. Or is that a lie too?
 
Nameless King said:
Give Prigozin all he needs


Yea? And what about so called 'dead hand'. That is able to launch nukes even if Putin and Co are obliterated. Or is that a lie too?
Click to expand...
What stuff about dead hand?

We have aliens, combat ducks and cosmic irradiation manipulating with human brains.
More than this: from core of earth aliens together with devil might subjugate our mind with their willpower.
 
An interesting thing to note is how long it took for Russsia to respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia a month ago.
If Wagner is legit going to be fighting the military, that could be quite the nightmare for the Russians.
That's still a huge if at this point tho
 
It is absolutely useless to attempt induce fear in order to conduct here russian psy op.
We long ago had experience to live close to so called tactical nuclear weapons without death hand.

Pussy generation, Reagan immediately had died from shame to see modern pussies. Consumer society and lazy idiots thinking that to be slave is cool.
 
The launch sequence to use nuclear warhead with artillery or Luna artillerry rocket.

1. Lock off container ...they usually had 2-3 physical keys and 2-3 code keys ( mechanic :D).
2. Remove tool from container.
3. Insert " detonator type " probe " in item.
4. Remove 2-3 safety wires from item's body.
5. Do next operation cycle.

Nothing wrong, we had lived in such world and had balls;):D.
Maybe cos internet wasn't actual...
:p
 
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