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Russia is raising its conscription age and calling up 70-year-olds in an effort to avoid another large-scale mobilization that could spark backlash, expert says
Russia is raising its conscription age and calling up 70-year-olds in an effort to avoid another large-scale mobilization that could spark backlash, expert says
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Erin Snodgrass
Wed, August 2, 2023 at 5:18 PM PDT
A Russian conscript kisses his partner during a send-off event before they head to assigned military units for mandatory one-year military service, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Tuesday, May 23, 2023.AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky
- Russia has recently introduced a series of bills that expands the pool of eligible conscripts.
- The country is facing mounting manpower struggles amid its ongoing war in Ukraine.
- An expert on Russia said the government is likely trying to avoid another large-scale mobilization.
The Russian government passed a
series of bills last month that significantly expands the pool of men eligible for military service as the country looks to address its
increasing personnel problems while avoiding another full-scale mobilization.
The country is facing mounting manpower shortages amid its 17-month war in Ukraine even after
President Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists in one fell swoop last fall, prompting tens of thousands of
Russian men to flee.
Now, the Russian government is looking for new ways to pad its military numbers without sparking civilian backlash or cannibalizing its own economy.
Last week, Putin signed into law legislation that raises the maximum age for male conscription from 27 to 30 years old.
One year of military service was previously required by Russian men ages 18 to 27 with conscriptions held twice a year. But starting in 2024, that call-up category will be extended by three years, significantly broadening the pool of young men who are now eligible for Russia's one year of compulsory service.
"This gives Russia more latitude on who it can pull into the fight without taking people who are producing both militarily and economically valuable products," said
Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations.
The legislation also prevents conscripts from leaving Russia after they've been sent a draft notice — an apparent response to the scores of Russians who fled the country in response to last year's mobilization. A similar law passed earlier this year
would impose several possible penalties on would-be draft dodgers, including a suspended driver's license and blocks on buying real estate and receiving bank loans.
"If I were Putin, I wouldn't want to do another big mobilization, because that's a really galvanizing moment to remind people that this war affects them too," Miles said.
Russian state media has sought to
present the war as entirely divorced from everyday Russians' lives since the invasion in February 2022, framing the conflict as something happening "over there" in Ukraine, Miles said.
"But it's not "over there" when 200,000 people get roped into military service to go and fight this stupid and futile war," he added.
Putin has promised that conscripts won't be sent to the frontlines in Ukraine, but
The New York Times reported last week that these men have been deployed to regions on Ukraine's border and could be called upon to sign wartime contracts.
The new conscription law is just one of
several steps Russia has recently taken to address personnel shortages. In mid-July, the Russian Parliament also raised the maximum age that reservists who have already completed their compulsory service can be called back to fight.
The highest-ranking officers now eligible for general mobilization are as old as 70.
Then, the Duma last week passed a bill that upped the fines for people who don't show up to an enlistment office after receiving a draft notice. Previous fines maxed out at 3,000 rubles, but the new legislation institutes a flat fee of 30,000 rubles, or nearly $330.
That bill also expands powers among Russian governors to oversee regional paramilitary units during periods of mobilization.
"These are solutions that create opportunities for Russia to continue [conscripting people] at a lower intensity level that doesn't generate the big news stories and the backlash," Miles said.
Russian authorities have also mobilized nearly 60,000 residents in Russian-occupied Crimea since early 2022,
the Institute for the Study of War reported, citing Ukrainian intelligence, with many of those men deployed to the frontlines of the war, despite being offered assurances they would be kept away from the most brutal fighting.
The recent Russian crackdown on conscripts has managed to spark at least some discontent, with reports of civilians conducting arson attacks against registration and enlistment offices, per ISW.
"This is further evidence against Putin's proposition — which was flawed from the outset — that he can keep this war going as long as wants to and needs to," said Miles.
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