Opinion Realistically speaking how much longer do you expect the US to be the most powerful nation?

[Sketch]

Big part of it, yeah. Just basic logic. I happen to think there are other good reasons for pursuing a growth agenda (which, again, also includes encouraging more births), but my belief that it's better for the world to have the U.S. rather than China in the position of world economic leader is a major driver of it.

I think we both agree on growth, and I’m also not against immigration. I think we differ on the fact I would prefer the slow route of incentive to have kids and focusing on Americans first while you prefer a more modern approach of hyper immigration.

 

[ultramanhyata]

What's the problem?

That line wasn't specifically meant to incite the "usual suspects" here?

 

[Gluteus Swag]

He's not wrong.

China's population is currently approximately at its peak. Their population will decline from 1.4B today to around 1B by 2100. They will also have a population 5-7 years older than the USA after around 2050. Unless China allows immigration or forces their population to have more babies they will likely not be on top for long. Wealthy Asian countries like Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan have the lowest fertility rates in the world which means China will likely struggle to encourage their population to have more babies. China also has a massive population and are quite xenophobic which means that they are unlikely to want to begin allowing 4-8 million immigrants a year to make up for their population decline.

Meanwhile the USA at current projections will go from around 330M people today to around 450M by 2100. This means that China will go from around 4.2x the USA's population in 2020 to around 2.2x in 2100. This is bad news for China because China's strength largely comes from their massive population.

So purely from an economic perspective, the USA could increase immigration to prevent too large of a gap from developing between China and the USA's economies. Then around 2070-2090 after China's population decline gets up to extreme levels, the United States could retake the spot as the #1 economy in the world.

The problem is that the USA is currently too polarized. If the country Balkanizes then they will never overtake China again. The United States has to deal with issues of polarization before the idea of increasing immigration becomes a viable idea.

 

[Jack V Savage]

That line wasn't specifically meant to incite the "usual suspects" here?

I don't think about those people. Just trying to get it right.

 

[Jack V Savage]

The problem is that the USA is currently too polarized. If the country Balkanizes then they will never overtake China again. The United States has to deal with issues of polarization before the idea of increasing immigration becomes a viable idea.

There does appear to be a negative correlation between polarization and openness to immigration. But I think that means that polarization is an obstacle to good policy that has to be overcome rather than something that changes what policy is good. Not sure what the solution to polarization is.

 

[MaxMMA]

I'm not sure but considering that our nation caused a global panic and economic down slide because of a 99% survival rate virus that soccer mom's and beta cucks couldn't stop freaking out about on twitter book.

I'd say our days are numbered.

 

[Denter]

Big part of it, yeah. Just basic logic. I happen to think there are other good reasons for pursuing a growth agenda (which, again, also includes encouraging more births), but my belief that it's better for the world to have the U.S. rather than China in the position of world economic leader is a major driver of it.

What is a nation these days but an economic zone?

I'm not being trite, I'm not sure it's even the best way to think about things anymore.

I think this comes down to values and what one actually care about. Does playing some 21st century Great Game in Central Asia and the Pacific really do anything for for economic zone A? When B also has nukes? What does a rising population mean besides growth? Does emptying the world of their best and brightest (even if we could craft such a policy) have any moral implications?

Is the last implicit promise holding this country together that growth will continue, and your property and 401ks will get good returns? Where does this end? Is dying in bed in your mansion and leaving millions to your kids to fight over what life is about?

 

[fedoriswar37]

Anywhere from 1 -3 years. As soon as Kamala takes over for Joe it's game over

 

[Denter]

In the ancient tradition, as per Aristotle, biopolitics is a fundamental duty of the state according to the following goals: that the people perpetuate itself through begetting children, that those children be bred and educated to the highest standards possible, that the society have the right-sized population (neither underpopulated nor overpopulated), and that the polis have the common identity necessary to solidarity. We are already far too large for that.

 

[Papi Chulo]

Western culture is collapsing. The things that built the USA are being demonized by the Marxist Left which has taken over.

 

[Wingslaught]

The US has only been the most powerful nation for a little over a century, that's a small period of time when you look at the grand scheme of things and the US has been showing signs of collapse with political turmoil, trade deficits and national debt. Empires in China and India held power for far longer periods of time and China looks like it will soon surpass the US again.

It's Democracy, spineless politicians, and mass migration that will lead to our downfall, imo. Endless hordes of the desperate poor flood in and start voting themselves our wealth and means thereby depleting us from within. They don't give a darn about the long-term health and well-being of the country. This is not something China has to deal with as they chart their course forward.

 

[original doom]

20 years.

sooner if we can avoid trading in US dollars.

 

[WaylonMercy5150]

Western culture is collapsing. The things that built the USA are being demonized by the Marxist Left which has taken over.

Biden doesn't support universal health care. Trump was more of Marxist than Biden.

 

[Nameless King]

This is all it takes to level up chances and restart the world. So no matter how big China, US gets really

 

[MicroBrew]

Western culture is collapsing. The things that built the USA are being demonized by the Marxist Left which has taken over.

The left just criticizes White Nationalism and Patriarchy.

 

[intrepid brawler]

Big part of it, yeah. Just basic logic. I happen to think there are other good reasons for pursuing a growth agenda (which, again, also includes encouraging more births), but my belief that it's better for the world to have the U.S. rather than China in the position of world economic leader is a major driver of it.

how exactly do you propose we go about pursuing a growth agenda? American corporations are focused on increasing the bottom line. that's not conducive to having large families. maybe we can import more immigrants and expand the permanenent underclass, but that only creates more social instability in a country as race-conscious as the US. Also, not sure i agree that the world is better with US at the helm than china. I've been to hong kong and kowloon and beijing, thailand, philippines, malaysia, indonesia and other parts of the chinese disapora. they're not worse than the US. in fact, in some ways they're more open-minded and accepting of other peoples differences than a lot of americans i meet in cali and new york.

 

[intrepid brawler]

This is all it takes to level up chances and restart the world. So no matter how big China, US gets really

can't beat them with business tactics and strategies, so just admit defeat and bomb them, huh?

 

[Nameless King]

can't beat them with business tactics and strategies, so just admit defeat and bomb them, huh?

As long as they sit in their own back garden I dont mind. They can grow as fat as they want.

 

[intrepid brawler]

As long as they sit in their own back garden I dont mind. They can grow as fat as they want.

you ever seen a chinese? they don't hardly grow fat. they steady tryna take over the world through sheer hard work...my question is, can you compete with them on those terms or do you feel you gotta bomb them to take them out of the game because you know the US can't win any other way?

 

[sverre054]

Not any time soon. The rest of the world needs to stop letting them build all of our cheap crap. Many large companies have already been pulling out of China and shifting production to SE Asia. China doesn't have the force projection power, anywhere near the USA. They also rely extensively on stealing technology to try and keep up. More and more countries are going to team up and counter China's expansion. USA, India, Japan, and Australia have started its new Quad alliance that's going to be gearing up to aggressively counter them in the Indo-Pacific region.