Counterpoint: Vingagaard has faced Pogacar 4 times in the TdF and he is 2-2. Not bad. Vingagaard was fortunate to even ride the TdF this year. In addition to his significant injuries, the Visma team was weakened by a string of bad luck.
If I was Vingagaard going into the off-season, I would think that I did pretty well at the TdF considering it was a minor miracle that I started the race at all. Visma will probably be much stronger next year. All he needs is better luck.
Personally I favour Pogacar. It is still easy enough to understand why Vingagaard would be optimistic
I understand the positive angle for Vingagaard but his team was laying the boots to UAE in 2022 and 2023. You had WvA dropping Pogacar on climbs. Whatever they had going on is clearly not in play in 2024.
Vingagaard might have the 'cup half full' view going into the off-season but having ridden for Dutch teams I can tell you they are not big on optimism.
- he'll never have a WvA, like he had in 2022 and 2023, again.
- Van Baarle could be back and that is a big engine to control the race but Dylan may be thinking more about 1 day races in the spring.
- while Tratnik is diesel, UAE have several riders of similar quality
- no more Roglic. You'll laugh because he crashed so much but he was a real threat that Pogacar had to watch.
- Kuss is now wondering whether he should save himself for Vueltas and Giros, and not blowing it all on support at the TdF.
- LaPorte is not a threat in long mountain stages and I bet he is thinking about spring classics.
- Jonas is 2 yrs older than Pogacar
I doubt Visma is heading into the winter thinking, "hot-damn, I can't wait for 2025!!'.