News PPV further collapses

[rjmbrd]

The funny part is even with UFC underperforming in ppv and certain other aspects. ESPN still desperately needs them and has to pay way more. UFC rights are up at the end of the year and everyone wants them. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Paramount plus are heavily rumored to be bidding for them.

re: Netflix, the opposite is true. Sarandos specifically stated in his last investors meeting his focus is not on sports, but one-off 'spectacle' events. Belal Bejaria has repeated the same.

There is virtually zero buzz with insiders that Netflix is going or has made a big bid for UFC rights. Of course anything is possible we could all be shocked, but IMO this is the least likely scenario.

Amazon has a PPV model and most certainly has a bid in. If it goes that way, PPV buys will fall even further. Paramount is interesting considering Ellison's father is a Trumper. Doesn't surprise me they are bidding after the merger was approved. Again I would doubt they have the 'big' rights deal, just a smaller one.

ESPN or Amazon gets the main deal (PPV) and other streamers will get the periphery.

UFC is doubling up their money no matter what lol. Sports in general are getting ridiculous payouts for streaming deals. UFC has the advantage of being only major sports organization available for bidding in near future.

It would indeed be a shock if they didn't substantially increase their rights deal in 2026. However the product is failing and has to be addressed long-term. Anyone doing this deal would simply be subsidizing the failed PPV model.

 

[FreedomCricket]

2 - 4 stacked PPV cards per year.

Then 6 - 8 numbered cards per year (normal PPV)

35 Fight Night cards per year. Zero at the Apex.

 

[Mesos]

re: Netflix, the opposite is true. Sarandos specifically stated in his last investors meeting his focus is not on sports, but one-off 'spectacle' events. Belal Bejaria has repeated the same.

There is virtually zero buzz with insiders that Netflix is going or has made a big bid for UFC rights. Of course anything is possible we could all be shocked, but IMO this is the least likely scenario.

Amazon has a PPV model and most certainly has a bid in. If it goes that way, PPV buys will fall even further. Paramount is interesting considering Ellison's father is a Trumper. Doesn't surprise me they are bidding after the merger was approved. Again I would doubt they have the 'big' rights deal, just a smaller one.

ESPN or Amazon gets the main deal (PPV) and other streamers will get the periphery.



It would indeed be a shock if they didn't substantially increase their rights deal in 2026. However the product is failing and has to be addressed long-term. Anyone doing this deal would simply be subsidizing the failed PPV model.

If Amazon does go for it aggressively. I wonder how many events they would ask for and how are they going to bid against Paramount plus who has some serious backing now. Rights are for sure being split.

Last time UFC rights were up they almost went with Amazon instead of ESPN. I can see their being a stronger motivation for them to secure some UFC rights. So Amazon may overpay to fend off Paramount and Netflix.

Either way ESPN still walks away with the majority of events. Thats how UFC wants it too based of rumors. ESPN will be the home of UFC. It simply makes more sense to keep UFC on fully dedicated sports platform.

Amazon wont pull off that ppv strategy or take all the rights. They will be lucky to get a handful of big events yearly.

 

[Dreyga Hates You Sherbums]

Whoa…UFC is dying

 

[CC27]

Ppv has been long dead and then the pay wall for ESPN on top of having to pay again doesn't help

it hasnt long been dead, they saw huge surge in PPV sales during covid, its only dropped off the last two years.

 

[Captain Herb]

I am praying to the MMA gods that all the bidders are forcing the UFC to have some quality control in some clause.

Revenue is quality control. Nobody buying shit cards = making UFC great again

 

[CC27]

PPV is a dying business, its too easy to stream them and you dont have mega stars to get casuals who dont know any better to buy them.

But that article is wrong, the guy they source isnt understanding the earnings call right. ESPN isnt paying UFC less, they pay a fixed fee, its ESPN didnt make as much money due to lower UFC PPV sales.

So UFC still collects so they dont care but how things go with this next deal will be interesting. I dont know why any platform be it ESPN, Amazon or Netflix would want to do PPV. Buy them outright like ESPN just did with WWE PLE. Pay 400 mill and you get 13 or 14 numbered events you put on Netflix or Prime or main ESPN and eliminate the PPV model. UFC held out on PPV the longest and they benefited from it greatly over the years but like everything it eventually has to change and now is the time.

 

[hbombbisping]

Dana is not making the super fights.

Why did he suck Jones off and not even obliterate him when he went running and retired instead of fight Tom?

Why couldn't he get Conor back?

The UFC need a new front man and way of doing things.

 

[JonnyBonesPharmacist]

That's another thing is the audience is aging out of staying up till 1am on Saturday night and the younger generation don't party like the older did.

This

 

[rjmbrd]

If Amazon does go for it aggressively. I wonder how many events they would ask for and how are they going to bid against Paramount plus who has some serious backing now. Rights are for sure being split.

Amazon already has PPV built into their revenue model and platform, they can just plug UFC in. Amazon is OK with subsidizing a UFC rights deal - they don't need to be profitable from it directly. Their ROI calculation is going to weigh keeping rights away from competitors and market consolidation for Prime.

Paramount / Skydance is a bit of a mess. Big cuts are going to happen over there so I have a serious doubt they make a major bid for rights.

WBD is reportedly the 'wildcard' bidder in all this. Posted a surprise Q2 profit & revenue beat (compared with bleeding billions same period YoY) and a few major box office hits.

The bozo and consultants that tortured the branding from HBO, to HBO Max, to Max, now back to ... HBO ... hard to say how brass sees sports content fitting in OTT, but its possible. WBD has a shocking 40b of debt so, hard to see them going big on a bid. For non-PPV level content? Sure.

Last time UFC rights were up they almost went with Amazon instead of ESPN. I can see their being a stronger motivation for them to secure some UFC rights. So Amazon may overpay to fend off Paramount and Netflix.

Ari has given a very candid and inside interview about how it went down. They came dangeously close to having no deal prior to ESPN working out.

There are really no credible reports Netflix is making any bid, let alone a big one. Paramount same, but who knows.

Either way ESPN still walks away with the majority of events. Thats how UFC wants it too based of rumors. ESPN will be the home of UFC. It simply makes more sense to keep UFC on fully dedicated sports platform.

Amazon wont pull off that ppv strategy or take all the rights. They will be lucky to get a handful of big events yearly.

Its been credibly reported that ESPN PPV is legimiately through the floor.

The timing is good with ESPN rolling out DTC for $30/month to lock-in the UFC. So the UFC has that going for them, but negotation wise, its an open secret PPV is grossly underperforming.

 

[rjmbrd]

PPVs will stick around for forseable future imo. Their will just be less of them and they will stack them. It doesn't make sense to get rid of ppvs. If you have a Conor, Ronda, Gsp type star it makes UFC a ton of money. A guarantee amount from a streamer could never touch that.

This is demonstrably untrue.

If Netflix agreed to give the UFC the 1 billion/year deal they are asking for, they would hand over exclusive numbered card rights that instant. It would mean the highest revenue in the history of the UFC, as they still have ancillary rights, advertising, merchandise and ticketing.

Note: Netflix will spend 18 billion on content in 2026. They could easily afford the UFC. They just don't want it.

UFC will just hold out until a new ppv star comes thru.

The UFC will stay with a PPV model if ESPN renews (for their new OTC platform) or Amazon outbids them.

Reportedly Netflix is simply not interested in live sports, so its unlikely they bid. If they did, the PPV model would be gone.

 

[Alpha_T83]

What do they expect when it's over $90 to watch a UFC PPV, including the cost of ESPN+. And it gets worse if you only watch 3-4 PPVs a year, but require a year-around ESPN+ subscription. Then the cost goes over $100. I think if you watch just 4 PPVs a year, but keep your ESPN+ subscription (and only use it for UFC), then you are paying $125 per UFC event you watch.

 

[AstralPanda]

Probably because they've been watering the shit out of every card

Knowing they'll get a flat fee from espn anyways

They don't give a shit about producing quality product at this point and they deserve to fail until they start actually caring about putting out quality events.

It's quantity over quality, like a good restaurant that just opened like a dozen franchises.

Eventually people get tired of that shit and just stop paying.

 

[Mesos]

Amazon already has PPV built into their revenue model and platform, they can just plug UFC in. Amazon is OK with subsidizing a UFC rights deal - they don't need to be profitable from it directly. Their ROI calculation is going to weigh keeping rights away from competitors and market consolidation for Prime.

Paramount / Skydance is a bit of a mess. Big cuts are going to happen over there so I have a serious doubt they make a major bid for rights.

WBD is reportedly the 'wildcard' bidder in all this. Posted a surprise Q2 profit & revenue beat (compared with bleeding billions same period YoY) and a few major box office hits.

The bozo and consultants that tortured the branding from HBO, to HBO Max, to Max, now back to ... HBO ... hard to say how brass sees sports content fitting in OTT, but its possible. WBD has a shocking 40b of debt so, hard to see them going big on a bid. For non-PPV level content? Sure.




Ari has given a very candid and inside interview about how it went down. They came dangeously close to having no deal prior to ESPN working out.

There are really no credible reports Netflix is making any bid, let alone a big one. Paramount same, but who knows.



Its been credibly reported that ESPN PPV is legimiately through the floor.

The timing is good with ESPN rolling out DTC for $30/month to lock-in the UFC. So the UFC has that going for them, but negotation wise, its an open secret PPV is grossly underperforming.

WBD is the one in a mess imo, they are already splitting up after just doing a recent merger with each other. Think Paramount will be okay with new owners. They have deep pockets and seem shrewd. I think they are willing to spend for some UFC fights but very limited to a few events. Streamers are desperate these days for subscribers. So having UFC here and there on your service is a good thing.

Live content is on every streamers wish list wether they admit it or not

As much as people want ppv model to be gone its not going to happen. Its too lucrative when done right. At most they are just going to cut back on ppv events and better quality control. Thats it. This is not wwe. Amazon doing a ppv deal with UFC is interesting but it would be similar to what they have with ESPN. Amazon would also have to add more sports to its platform. So that people know its a place to stream sports. You cant just one off stuff with streaming, it has to be an ecosystem. Apple realized this and has MLS, MLB and Formula 1 soon. Amazon I think recently got a few NBA games and a few NFl games but its not enough. (nobody gives a shit about one fc on prime doesnt count)

This whole thing is unpredictable and rumors are not reliable so who knows what will happen. Either way expect to be paying way more for UFC next year lol.

 

[AstralPanda]

I am praying to the MMA gods that all the bidders are forcing the UFC to have some quality control in some clause. If you think about the deal ESPN signed last time, there was more free money with lower interest rates to just throw random shit on the wall and see what works for streaming. Then it should be obvious to any of these companies what UFC has done during that deal this should be the time for reckoning for the UFC to pay for what they've done with short term profits.

However I can also see the UFC's growth just being enough for their analysts to overlook everything for the next 7 years and do the take exact retarded deal. ESPN isn't known for amazing business decisions and especially Disney lately. Still I know they've been cracking the whip down on losers, but UFC is a drop in the bucket for essentially owning a sport size-wise.

What a horrendous model it has been

Hopefully Netflix keeps them on a tight leash of quality control if they get the deal.

 

[rorschach51]

Good. I watch NFL, NCAA football, PGA golf, Olympics, tennis grand slam finals, and my local MLB/NHL team all for free on a $15 antenna.

PPV needs to kick the bucket, especially if it's not going to be a high end product

There are still local channels that cover the NHL, they did away with Fox Sports Midwest which aired the Blues and Cardinals and made it to where you have to sub FanDuel Sports Network to watch them around here.

Lucky Bastard.

 

[AstralPanda]

I am getting the feeling Prime is more likely than Netflix
Part of that might be prime already having PPV capability.

We need someone with the BALLS to step up and boss the UFC around a bit and call them out on their bullshit.


UFC has been "failing up" for quite a while, by which I mean, they have been doing a terrible job but succeeding inspite of their objectively terrible job promoting and making cards. The roster is bloated but yet they haven't built new names, the known names are aging out which is a big problem (think of the biggest names in the sport, how many are 35+ ... it's a LOT)

It's time for a major shake up.

Even the fan base seems old.

Which makes sense if you consider ... they are still doing TUF
The entire company is badly badly out of touch.


Apex & Contender series suck

The Apex was always shit but the only reason it ever should have existed was Covid. The company chose to run empty shows because they had a loophole in their contract for free money but doing shows to no audience sucks for the fans and does nothing to build new fans. Going to a new place builds excitement. When UFC comes to my state I hear about it and people bring friends and girlfriends to see a show and the sport grows. Apex ain't grow shit but maybe hostility and disappointment.

Same shit with contender series.
It isn't building new fans or new stars

Bringing in champions of other orgs at least has the possibility of growing fanbases in those regions. Guy becomes a KSW champ or cage warriors or whatever and people from that area follow their UFC career and others hear about it and that builds something.

DWTNCS builds next to nothing.
its more dated reality TV era promotional bullshit.
In fact it HURTS the product because it waters down all the cards which get filled with these guys no one cares about

Nothing like corporations taking over

Always leads to a proper servicing of the art.

It's like those food carts that used to be bomb until some giga food company buys them out, they make a bunch more and quality goes to shit, the passion goes to shit and it becomes soulless.

They're buying up and doing it to everything these days. Everything we once lived is slowly becoming controlled by these vultures

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

PPVs will stick around for forseable future imo. Their will just be less of them and they will stack them. It doesn't make sense to get rid of ppvs. If you have a Conor, Ronda, Gsp type star it makes UFC a ton of money. A guarantee amount from a streamer could never touch that.

UFC will just hold out until a new ppv star comes thru.

A business model depending on once a generation athletes every decade isn't sustainable, because you get generations with champs like Jamhal Hill.

$70 is overpriced end of the day. They were barely making it with $50 PPVs, increasing the price 40% will obviously price out a great chunk of people.

How much money do you have to be to be a "true" UFC mar-I mean fan?
UFC PPV events (typically 12 per year) and Fight Nights in the U.S., you need an ESPN+ subscription ($119.99/year) and must purchase each PPV event ($79.99 each). Total yearly cost: approximately $1,079.87 (12 PPVs x $79.99 + $119.99).

The sport isn't in a state where anyone looks at it and thinks "Yes, $1000 a year is fair for this subscription."

 

[ricc505]

I love MMA. I hate ppv. MMA is barreling down the same path as boxing, and they are ignoring all the warnings

 

[Fight Professor]

“Translation: already bad PPV numbers got worse, year over year. UFC needs a superstar for these numbers to recover, with none in sight.”

So true. And they should have paid Jones enough so he would fight Tom.