Political Predictions Thread

waiguoren

waiguoren

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Share your predictions about elections, government personnel changes, investigations, indictments/convictions, specific policies or the specific fate of politicians. No childish BS (personal attacks or thread derailing).

My predictions:

  1. Trump will not lose the 2020 Republican primary contest.
  2. If Trump makes it to election day 2020, he will win re-election.
  3. Trump will not be indicted for any crimes while in office.
  4. Robert Mueller's investigation will not conclude that Trump attempted to offer US policy concessions to Russia in exchange for access to the hacked DNC e-mails.
  5. Martin O'Malley, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand will all announce candidacies for president for 2020.
  6. Cory Booker will not be the Democratic nominee in 2020.
  7. The Republicans will hold the Senate in the 2018 election.
  8. Trump will not be removed from office via political means (e.g., 25th Amendment, impeachment+removal)
  9. During the Democratic primary race for the 2020 US presidential election, one of Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Martin O'Malley or Bernie Sanders or their respective presidential campaigns will criticize Kirsten Gillibrand publicly for her past positions on illegal immigration.
  10. Roger Stone will not be convicted of any crimes for conspiracy to influence the 2016 election through coordination with Russia.

If you dare challenge any of my predictions, I will be happy to take your signature via sigbet.


@PureDominance 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be jailed prior to the 2020 election. The official charges will be obstruction of justice and conspiracy against the state.

@HomerThompson's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be removed from office on, or before, December 31st, 2019.

@zebby23 's predictions:

1. John Kasich will defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 Republican primary.
2. John Kasich will lose to the Democratic nominee for president in the 2020 US presidential election.
3. The Democrats will take the House and the Senate in the 2018 elections.
4. Donald Trump will not serve a full term as US president.
5. Donald Trump will file for personal bankruptcy within two years of leaving the office of the presidency.

@Essie 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
2. The Republicans will hold the Senate in 2018.
3. The Mueller investigation won't conclude until after 2019

@Farmer Br0wn 's predictions:

1. President Trump will stay in office until January 20, 2025.
2. The Republicans will gain three or four Senate seats on net in the 2018 elections.
3. Within 18 months of the inauguration of the next Democratic president, all of @HomerThompson, @Fawlty, @Falsedawn, and @Rational Poster will use the term "X* derangement syndrome" to describe a disagreement with the next Democratic president. Also, at least one Huffington Post opinion piece will use this term within 18 months of that president's inauguration.

*Here X is any substitute for the full name of the next Democratic president, such as that president's surname.

@Seano's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will be indicted on at least one criminal charge.
2. Donald Trump will serve no more than one term as president.

@Gutter Chris 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump wont be charged with any crimes during his tenure as president.
2. Donald Trump will pull out of the 2020 presidential race before election day. The stated reason will be a health issue.
3. Hillary Clinton will not run for president in 2020.

[B]@Bobby 3 Sticks[/B]'s predictions:

1. Adam Schiff will run for president as a Democrat in the 2020 presidential campaign.

2. On net, the Republican party will gain Senate seats in the 2018 election.

3. The Democrats will hold the majority of seats in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2018 election.

4. Mitt Romney will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020.

5. Donald Trump will be listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in a criminal case before the conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election.

@bobgeese's predictions:

1. Nikki Haley will be the first female president of the United States.

@elfeliz's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will win re-election in the 2020 US presidential election.

@Culombo's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will win re-election in the 2020 US presidential election.

@VivaRevolution's predictions:

1. If Bernie Sanders runs as a Democrat in the 2020 US presidential election, he will win the Democratic nomination and the presidential election.

@Gandhi 's predictions:

1. A former or current Republican US senator, US congressperson or state governor will challenge Donald Trump in the Republican primary for the 2020 presidential election.
2. If prediction (1) holds or if another @Gandhi-approved primary challenger runs, Trump will lose the 2020 presidential election.

@Sir GymTanLaundry 's predictions:

1. The US House of Representatives will not vote to impeach President Donald Trump.

2. President Donald Trump will complete a full term as US president.

3. The Republican Party will control both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate following the 2018 mid-term elections.

@GearSolidMetal 's predictions:

1. Joe Biden will run for the nomination of the Democratic Party for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. Joe Biden will win the nomination of the Democratic Party for the 2020 US Presidential election.
3. Prior to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, none of the following media outlets will publish new media content in which broadcasters or writers mention accusations that Joe Biden has touched women and children inappropriately (Washington Post, New York Times, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, FOX News, The Wall Street Journal).

@DIDM 's predictions:

1. The Republican candidate for president will win the 2020 US presidential election.

2. The Republicans will hold the majority of seats in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2018 election.

3. The Republicans will hold the majority of seats in the Senate as a result of the 2018 election.

@King in the North 's predictions:

1. Donald Trump will stress eat himself to death and not make it to the 2020 election.
2. A white male Democrat will win the 2020 presidential election.
 
Last edited:
Not until you share your proprietary formula with the group, Einstein.
 
Cool thread idea.

If Trump does run for reelection one or multiple popular Republicans will not only try to primary Trump, if they lose the primary they'll run third party. My next guess is it will be Flake or Kasich to do the dirty work.
 
kpt018 said:
Cool thread idea.

If Trump does run for reelection one or multiple popular Republicans will not only try to primary Trump, if they lose the primary they'll run third party. My next guess is it will be Flake or Kasich to do the dirty work.
Click to expand...
I like this, but what is the threshold for "popular"? Would Rand Paul count? Would Trey Gowdy count?
 
Trump will be removed from office on, or before, December 31st, 2019.
 
waiguoren said:
I like this, but what is the threshold for "popular"? Would Rand Paul count? Would Trey Gowdy count?
Click to expand...
Yes, I would say both count although I'm a little hesitant to include Trey. Rand certainly would count, but that would surprise me as would Trey.
 
kpt018 said:
Yes, I would say both count although I'm a little hesitant to include Trey. Rand certainly would count, but that would surprise me as would Trey.
Click to expand...
Right so we need to quantify popularity somehow. Even with Flake, he's only well-known because he has spoken out against Trump. I assume you meant someone who was popular before he/she became a vocal anti-Trump Republican.
 
Last edited:
kpt018 said:
I'm curious, what do you think the path to removal is?

I'm really skeptical.
Click to expand...
I think Mueller is going to criminally indict him, because his crimes are so vast and repulsive. We'll see how it goes down, but no way he gets impeached by Republicans regardless of what is found.

I think there will be extraordinary events unfolding in the next 18 months.
 
Kasich primaires Trump and wins but loses to the Dem nominee
 
HomerThompson said:
I think Mueller is going to criminally indict him, because his crimes are so vast and repulsive. We'll see how it goes down, but no way he gets impeached by Republicans regardless of what is found.

I think there will be extraordinary events unfolding in the next 18 months.
Click to expand...

I would say there is a 25% chance Trump quits
 
waiguoren said:
Right so we need to quantify popularity somehow. Even with Flake, he's only really popular because he has spoken out against Trump and promoted a book. I assume you meant someone who was popular before he/she became a vocal anti-Trump Republican.
Click to expand...
Yes, that is what I meant. But given he's popular now, Flake should be in. But I'd include the other Republican candidates that ran in 2016. I'd have to think more about who could be included outside of that group.
 
1. trump is re elected in 2020.
2. the republicans hold senate in 2018.
3. the russia investigation doesn't conclude until after 2019.
4. bernie bros are furious with the 2020 dem nominee.

that's all for now. cool thread.
 
Added: Kirsten Gillibrand will run for the Democratic nomination for president for the 2020 election.
 
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