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I can bring up again that there are a huge number of factors that can cause these differences and cause Sweden's lower numbers, and the fact that Sweden performed much worse than other places that had lockdowns, the fact that Sweden was far from "open", the fact that NY showed a massive sharp decline that wouldn't just happen naturally, the fact that that percentage is nowhere near a proper herd immunity, and the fact that natural herd immunity is not an actual strategy against a pandemic. But I'm not really interested in this discussion for the purpose of this thread.
I wouldn't call a poll like that fake, I don't see a reason to. You just have to compare all the polls together. More data = more accuracy. If 1 poll shows Biden +2 and 5 polls show Trump +3, it doesn't mean the first one was fake, it just means there happened to be more Biden supporters in that particular sample, and Trump would have a lead but it might be a tight race. Those things happen.
In 2016, there were numerous polls showing Trump winning in Nevada and New Hampshire. A CNN poll had Trump + 6 in Nevada a week before the election! But he lost both states. I wouldn't call that poll fake either, I would just say it happened to catch a more pro-Trump sample.
I think it's stupid when people flip out over single polling results, both when it shows Biden leading states that he averages behind in, and when Trump shows closer numbers than he's gotten previously. I consider the pro-Trump numbers, but amalgamations are more important. 4 reputable pollsters put out national results in the past two days. 2 showed Biden +10. One showed Biden +9. One showed Biden +4. I doubt any of them are fake or manipulated, even with different numbers. But the reality is still probably closer to the +10 when you take them together.
Covid wise, lets just leave it. I only brought it up as you did, i have no interest in beating this dead horse.
Polling wise i think you make good points, but as i said, if trump does make up this deficit to make the race competitive, then it does point to some degree of manipulation.
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