Political Betting Thread

I didn't argue he hasn't built a bit of a wall. I argued he hasn't kept his campaign promise to build a whole wall. which he hasn't. I don't know how you can argue he has when the extension is a lot smaller than the existing wall. iirc only a tiny amount of the wall built under trump's administration was actually new wall, and most of it replacement for the original one, could be wrong on that last part though.

obamacare hasn't been repealed as promised.

drain the swamp pretty clearly was viewed as tackling the corruption in government. = completely failed to do this.

the economy has been strong ofc. that however has nothing to do with the failure to keep his campaign promise by investing in the crumbling american infrastructure that severely reduces economic growth, which you'd think would be an incentive for him.

ofc locking Hillary up was a platitude but his failure to press her or advance investigation into her alleged activity for lack of a better word is still a broken promise for some of his base.

I don't care if he releases tax returns or not. but the fact remains he promised to do so and has failed to do so.

he didn't balance the debt but it has increased by an unprecedented amount. ofc covid played a giant part but it's going to have big consequences in the coming years. and this isn't to say democrats wouldn't of increased it by more. but it still remains an decent attack vector for dems.

I get the feeling you think I'm taking personal sides and that couldn't be further from the truth. many of his promises even the platitudes were taken seriously by a significant %'age of his base. but the fact of the matter is this could and likely will be used against trump and could potentially resonate negatively for trump. that is all, it might not have a major effect but in conjunction with other factors it is worth keeping in mind for betting purposes (why we are all((mostly)) here for).
trump still has a giant problem on his hands in terms of how he can actually win undecided/dem voters over. he seems largely to be putting most of his eggs in one basket expecting biden to completely capitulate. that's a distinct possibility ofc but it's risky, if biden doesn't and has ok performances in the debates then trump might be in real trouble, because trump has relatively few positives that he personally can put out there to win ppl over currently. I just watched (ok half watched) biden's speech at the convention that just finished and he seemed to do fine, no gaffe's or major stumbles, seemed cognizant (for his own standards). yeah yeah i know he's reading of a teleprompter, but it seems at the least that his condition might be slightly exaggerated at times despite still being very obvious.

"The people that don’t like Trump but still vote for him is because they believe he is a better choice than the other options (Biden here and Hillary in 2016). The president is decided not by which president people love the most but by what president the voting public hates the least"

your contradicting yourself here. trump is hated magnitudes of order more than biden. and by your own logic trump is fucked.

Lol nice, well I’m not changing your mind so bettem hard, all good.

Lol absolutely not contradicting myself. The people that hate Trump whine and bitch the loudest but they are not the majority. Lol if he was so hated by the masses he wouldn’t have won a Republican Primary and Presidential Election.

A 2nd grader can read, not a big deal on the speech and I’m sure he rehearsed it a ton of times. Oddly enough I heard it was the shortest speech by a presidential contender on a podcast which is interesting. I’m still betting he’s gonna get absolutely destroyed in the debates.
 
Lol nice, well I’m not changing your mind so bettem hard, all good.

Lol absolutely not contradicting myself. The people that hate Trump whine and bitch the loudest but they are not the majority. Lol if he was so hated by the masses he wouldn’t have won a Republican Primary and Presidential Election.

A 2nd grader can read, not a big deal on the speech and I’m sure he rehearsed it a ton of times. Oddly enough I heard it was the shortest speech by a presidential contender on a podcast which is interesting. I’m still betting he’s gonna get absolutely destroyed in the debates.

I mean you stated that trump has kept most of his campaign promises. this is factually not the case. it's not a matter of changing my mind.

you said you believe "The president is decided not by which president people love the most but by what president the voting public hates the least" so you think biden is hated by more people than trump? I have a real hard time seeing that. it seemed to be true for 2016 but hardly an accurate assumption for 2020.

I think he will also have a very hard time in the debates, but im saying I wouldn't be that shocked if he does better than many ppl are assuming. the last debate he did was his best one and had relatively few gaffe's etc. and a lot of trump backers are betting with near certainty that biden will basically self destruct his campaign in the debates.
 
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My money is on Biden, and it scares the hell out of me.

lol at Trump whoring YouTube. This stuff is already hard to find. It was on the front page for a few days now you have to be VERY specific.

dirty tactics by Trump, but after seeing how China has been treating democracy by imprisoning supporters of democracy makes it disturbing.

 
So we have had the DNC and Hiden making their case, which just a fantasy about trump being a threat to democracy (we already don't have one, if it was a democracy there would be a 'none of the above' option on the ballot) and some bs about being a nice guy.

Trump has been campaigning largely negatively, must be done to an extent, but I hope he also now sets out his vision for the next 4 years and tells people what he achieved over the previous 4. He needs to set out a positive case for himself, that will be a good contrast with Hiden, as all he is selling is fantasy and bs. This is what can move the needle for him imo.

BTW Van jones on CNN. Its so funny, the looks on their faces when he inadvertently tells the truth bc he is so relieved that Hiden did not suck once in his life. <45>

 
My money is on Biden, and it scares the hell out of me.

lol at Trump whoring YouTube. This stuff is already hard to find. It was on the front page for a few days now you have to be VERY specific.

dirty tactics by Trump, but after seeing how China has been treating democracy by imprisoning supporters of democracy makes it disturbing.



Yeah, social media is putting their thumb on the scale. They do not allow any content, from left or right, that challenges the enemies of the people to become too successful. FB now will stop things it doesn't approve of from becoming viral. Its irritating that people hate Trump so much they cant see how terrible all this is.

MSM has been controlled a long time, and it leads to idiots being in charge and endless war, now they are trying to get social media in hand too.
 
he didn't balance the debt but it has increased by an unprecedented amount. ofc covid played a giant part but it's going to have big consequences in the coming years. and this isn't to say democrats wouldn't of increased it by more. but it still remains an decent attack vector for dems.

I want to point out that this was already up pretty significantly pre-covid. I can't speculate on what Hillary would've done, but Obama gave us some big reductions in deficit spending over his second term that went back up under Trump. Trump doesn't care about balancing the budget. Conservative politicians just like touting their fiscal responsibility while giving the military whatever they want, cutting taxes without a good plan to pay for it, then blaming the dems for trying to block cuts to small social programs, while tiptoeing around the more expensive ones that their base supports (like medicare & SS). I don't know how effective attacks about this would really be though, the debt's such an intangible issue for most Americans and they just assume the gov will deal with it regardless.

trump still has a giant problem on his hands in terms of how he can actually win undecided/dem voters over. he seems largely to be putting most of his eggs in one basket expecting biden to completely capitulate. that's a distinct possibility ofc but it's risky, if biden doesn't and has ok performances in the debates then trump might be in real trouble, because trump has relatively few positives that he personally can put out there to win ppl over currently. I just watched (ok half watched) biden's speech at the convention that just finished and he seemed to do fine, no gaffe's or major stumbles, seemed cognizant (for his own standards). yeah yeah i know he's reading of a teleprompter, but it seems at the least that his condition might be slightly exaggerated at times despite still being very obvious.

If I knew a year ago that Biden would be the nominee, I definitely would've been a lot more worried about this. I distinctly remember him debating Paul Ryan in 2012 and thinking he looked awful. He came out in 2019 and was a disaster in the first couple debates. But comparing his performance from the beginning to the end of the primary debate season is night and day. He improved a ton, and regardless of political views, managed to come off as pretty sharp and likable. His prep team did an amazing job. Trump is not a good debater by any stretch. Hillary is a tough public speaker to go up against, but he looked awful in 2016 to anyone who wasn't on the Trump train. And I imagine it'll look pretty similar this time around, if the debates actually happen. Trump will stumble, contradict himself, say a bunch of dumb things, and refuse to give proper answers on policy. His base will claim victory no matter what, but Biden will get the better of him among moderates and undecideds.
 
whatever they want, cutting taxes without a good plan to pay for it,

Tax revenues increased under Trump. Spending is out of control for sure. Congress holds the purse strings technically, though both the executive and Congress to blame. Its a useless attack imo.

Anyway, things heading the right way for Trump in a key demographic in battleground states.



Blm will continue their crazed shenanigans, in fact, given the latest shooting, msm will outdo themselves in twisting the reporting of the shooting to make it look as bad for the police as possible, so will continue to escalate. They truly are the enemies of the people.

I think these blm/antifa riots will depress black turnout. It a gut feel, imo lot of what is going on is so whacked out, it will turn people off.
 
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Tax revenues increased under Trump. Spending is out of control for sure. Congress holds the purse strings technically, though both the executive and Congress to blame. Its a useless attack imo.

Anyway, things heading the right way for Trump in a key demographic in battleground states.



Blm will continue their crazed shenanigans, in fact, given the latest shooting, msm will outdo themselves in twisting the reporting of the shooting to make it look as bad for the police as possible, so will continue to escalate. They truly are the enemies of the people.

I think these blm/antifa riots will depress black turnout. It a gut feel, imo lot of what is going on is so whacked out, it will turn people off.


In nominal dollar amounts yes the revenue increased, but inflation-adjusted charts show no to negative growth (depending how you look at it). Previous revenue increases were typically higher. And revenue as a proportion of GDP plummeted, while our spending increased. The cuts don't pay for themselves, they're just depending on it causing enough economic growth for a trade-off, but most studies on the issue show that hasn't happened and will likely not happen. But I don't think the average person cares about this as much as they might say they do. It's such a tough issue to focus on above the tangible issues that affect everyday life. But Trump's/the republicans' faults in handling the budget can at least be used as a counter to claims of fiscal responsibility.

That's kind of a weird data point to cherrypick in that tweet. They're specifically showing uneducated whites, AKA the biggest Trump-supporting demographic. I looked up data from that same pollster, and they're showing all those battleground states having BLM support in-line with national averages, which is around a +10 and about 8 points higher than Trump's approval rating.
 
In nominal dollar amounts yes the revenue increased, but inflation-adjusted charts show no to negative growth (depending how you look at it). Previous revenue increases were typically higher. And revenue as a proportion of GDP plummeted, while our spending increased. The cuts don't pay for themselves, they're just depending on it causing enough economic growth for a trade-off, but most studies on the issue show that hasn't happened and will likely not happen. But I don't think the average person cares about this as much as they might say they do. It's such a tough issue to focus on above the tangible issues that affect everyday life. But Trump's/the republicans' faults in handling the budget can at least be used as a counter to claims of fiscal responsibility.

That's kind of a weird data point to cherrypick in that tweet. They're specifically showing uneducated whites, AKA the biggest Trump-supporting demographic. I looked up data from that same pollster, and they're showing all those battleground states having BLM support in-line with national averages, which is around a +10 and about 8 points higher than Trump's approval rating.

That's the demographic trump needs to win in battleground states. Its a key data point, that and black turnout ( and of course turnout in general), these are more important than headline numbers about blm. I thought it was significant that most of the increase in disapproval comes from people who previously said 'dont know' when asked about blm.

I think you pointed out blm is a big issue. Dnc thinks that stoking racial hatred will drive turnout in their favour, i disagree. Imo their voters will be less inclined to turnout, and trump supporters and trump leaning waverers will be more motivated to turnout.

You got a complicated way of saying i am right about tax revenue and its a pointless line of attack.

From a betting perspective I like whats going on given i am heavily betting on trump, though at this stage I am not sure whether I will let my bet play out past election night or sell beforehand.
 
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That the demographic trump needs to win in battleground states. Its a key data point, that and black turnout, these are more important than headline numbers about blm.

I think you pointed out blm is a big issue. Dnc thinks that stoking racial hatred will drive turnout in their favour, i disagree. Imo their voters will be less inclined to turnout, and trump supporters and trump leaning waverers will be more motivated to turnout.

You got a complicated way of saying i am right about tax revenue and its a pointless line of attack.

That's the demographic that already supports Trump.... I don't know what winning it does for him unless he needs to win them back to prevent a landslide loss? I'm not gonna pull up the 90% black support of BLM and say it means Biden wins ez lol. The overall majority either supports BLM or is indifferent to it, those states included. I don't think anti-BLM enthusiasm is higher than anti-Trump enthusiasm.

You're not right about tax revenue though... unless you just want to talk about a less meaningful stat. Inflation is a thing that exists, and you can't talk about money over time without that. Revenue would likely be much higher without the tax cuts, and the bottom line is that they're not paying for themselves. It's virtually impossible for them to do so in a realistic model, even during a strong economic growth period, and saying "see, it increased" when you see a higher total dollar amount is a really over-simplistic and improper way of looking at it.
 
That's the demographic that already supports Trump.... I don't know what winning it does for him unless he needs to win them back to prevent a landslide loss? I'm not gonna pull up the 90% black support of BLM and say it means Biden wins ez lol. The overall majority either supports BLM or is indifferent to it, those states included. I don't think anti-BLM enthusiasm is higher than anti-Trump enthusiasm.

You're not right about tax revenue though... unless you just want to talk about a less meaningful stat. Inflation is a thing that exists, and you can't talk about money over time without that. Revenue would likely be much higher without the tax cuts, and the bottom line is that they're not paying for themselves. It's virtually impossible for them to do so in a realistic model, even during a strong economic growth period, and saying "see, it increased" when you see a higher total dollar amount is a really over-simplistic and improper way of looking at it.

I think you are missing the point. I never said support for blm among black americans is decreasing, what i think is that these, lets call them 'civil disturbances', will not gel well with black americans and depress their turn out and also dnc voter turnout overall.

There is a massive disconnect between blm leadership and the broader support of blm, and these cds dont help the dnc. i think their strategy to sow as much chaos and discord into society as possible will backfire.

Previously, support for trump among the white working class demographic was down iirc, this shift should result in a better outlook for him in battleground states, as incidents likely the mostly peaceful arson going on in kenosha should motivate and increase trump support, and depress democrat turnout.

I dont know what dance you are doing about tax revenues, but they increased and continued to increase in 2019, thats in spite of being a smaller % of gdp. Thats not a bad thing, its the goal.
 
Interesting that betfair now has trump odds at +122. I started buying at +170ish.

Glad to finally have been on right side of line movement.

Trump polls still dont justify these odds, but looks like market agrees with me, they dont like what they see of the smoking ruin that calls itself the dnc and the mayhem they inflict on the usa thru their useful idiots and militant proxies.
 
It's finally dawned on uncle creepy's advisors that burning down the USA to get elected isn't working out for them.

 
It's finally dawned on uncle creepy's advisors that burning down the USA to get elected isn't working out for them.



Were they openly advocating for violent protests before, or at least saying the violence in the protests was justified and acceptable? I can't believe they'd do that, but then again I also don't pay much attention day to day. If they are publicly justifying rioting, looting, and attacking people that's insane.

The only thing I've seen from anyone mainstream has essentially been the same repeated mantra of needing change but that resorting to violence and ruining your neighbor's business or property doesn't help move the cause forward.
 
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Were they openly advocating for violent protests before, or at least saying the violence in the protests was justified and acceptable? I can't believe they'd do that, but then again I also don't pay much attention day to day. If they are publicly justifying rioting, looting, and attacking people that's insane.

The only thing I've seen from anyone mainstream has essentially been the same repeated mantra of needing change but that resorting to violence and ruining your neighbor's business or property doesn't help move the cause forward.

'Protests' have been going on in various cities for months. Eg portland courthouse was under seige from larping 'revolutionaries' to save black people from 'systemic racism' for over 2 months.

The msm gives cover by not giving people to full view of what's happening and the dnc tacitly supports them by never mentioning them at all, and allowing them to loot and riot in their cities and, quite often, those arrested are released without charge.

Some commentators and the radical wing of the dnc were saying at least some of the looting and rioting was justified.

Finally, hiden has come out to condemn the violence after months. Dnc and msm push this toxic narrative of 'systemic racism' into society, and race bait by turning every police shooting into a lynching, then try and garner support off it.

The modern dnc now is a dysfunctional alliance between corrupt corporatists and commies who hate each other, but use each others influence to try and gain power.

But it's gotten out of control now. You can't ride the back of the tiger forever.

The dnc, they will have you locked in your homes, and looters and rioters running around outside, they are a shit show.

The world the dnc and msm created by their non stop race baiting.



And there it is, CNN doing their bit on behalf their masters at the dnc.

 
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Yeah, social media is putting their thumb on the scale. They do not allow any content, from left or right, that challenges the enemies of the people to become too successful. FB now will stop things it doesn't approve of from becoming viral. Its irritating that people hate Trump so much they cant see how terrible all this is.

MSM has been controlled a long time, and it leads to idiots being in charge and endless war, now they are trying to get social media in hand too.

Social media has destroyed media, media is both sides represented, news is fuck Trump.

I’d die for my constitutional rights, but I’m ashamed my country allows restrictions. We the people are to blame. If shit goes south remember “we the people” ruined greatness.

regardless so be it, but America was founded on OUR GOVERNMENT NOT HAVING TOTAL CONTROL!!

WHAT IS SOCIALISM??

TOTALITARIANISM
 
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There’s a reason everyone wants to be a part of this country, and it’s not because of socialism, more often than not it’s the opposite. They want their worth and drive to define them. They just want the chance, the opportunity is foreign and strived after because we aren’t socialist. We’ve had presidents in America come from poverty, not to mention senators, governors etc.

name another country in the modern age
 
There’s a reason everyone wants to be a part of this country, and it’s not because of socialism, more often than not it’s the opposite. They want their worth and drive to define them. They just want the chance, the opportunity is foreign and strived after because we aren’t socialist. We’ve had presidents in America come from poverty, not to mention senators, governors etc.

name another country in the modern age


Plenty wrong with the USA, but its all the free world has got. If the USA falls, we are all fucked.

DNC is a worthless parasite sucking all the goodness out of the host body while injecting toxins into it.

GOP used to be the same, but at least for now, Trump has made it something moderately beneficial.
 
Plenty wrong with the USA, but its all the free world has got. If the USA falls, we are all fucked.

DNC is a worthless parasite sucking all the goodness out of the host body while injecting toxins into it.

GOP used to be the same, but at least for now, Trump has made it something moderately beneficial.

Anything man made is justifiably criticized, honest to God view the constitution as the greatest document men have ever written then made reality. Historically unreal, that’s what made America great. We had to defend it even before it manifested itself. America is an anomaly.
 
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