Political Betting Thread

[OutRun]

This thread is hilarious. Bunch of diehard trump bros jacking each other off. Last time I posted here Trump’s ML had moved from -300 to evens and everyone was all like nbd! Good luck w those trump bets you guys.

I think that there are plenty of Biden supporters here.
My "double digits estimate" is exaggerated, yeah. If Clinton fainting and being tossed into a van didn't make people lose confidence in her, who knows if melting butter brain Biden will even make a difference. But, Biden's fraying mind is low hanging fruit, and nobody goes for the low blows like Trump.

 

[mkess101]

I think that there are plenty of Biden supporters here.
My "double digits estimate" is exaggerated, yeah. If Clinton fainting and being tossed into a van didn't make people lose confidence in her, who knows if melting butter brain Biden will even make a difference. But, Biden's fraying mine is low hanging fruit, and nobody goes for the low blows like Trump.

Trump's supporters aren't going to mind that bullying, but he's getting their vote anyway.

To me, this election comes down to how much they are able to get out the vote among black Americans and those would just prefer anyone other than Trump as president. I'm not talking about the real Trump haters, of course they'll vote. I'm talking about the % of people who don't like him, but aren't super passionate about it.

In my lifetime, I can't remember an election where one of the candidates mattered so little. Biden is a doddering old goof, but in this specific election it just may not matter. This is purely Trump or not Trump.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I think that there are plenty of Biden supporters here.
My "double digits estimate" is exaggerated, yeah. If Clinton fainting and being tossed into a van didn't make people lose confidence in her, who knows if melting butter brain Biden will even make a difference. But, Biden's fraying mine is low hanging fruit, and nobody goes for the low blows like Trump.

Lol I shouldn’t be contributing here bc I don’t really give af and I have no action. But have you seen the new Lincoln Project video running on Fox News? Trump can’t lift a glass of water to his face or walk down a 91 degree ramp without looking like a frail peepaw.

 

[longway]

Lol I shouldn’t be contributing here bc I don’t really give af and I have no action. But have you seen the new Lincoln Project video running on Fox News? Trump can’t lift a glass of water to his face or walk down a 91 degree ramp without looking like a frail peepaw.

Yeah, they will be hammering away on this angle as biden has early stage dementia.

I doubtvit will work as therallies are starting up and there will be too much countervailing imagery of a strong and powerful leader.

Thats my read anyway. As i said, bidens vp pick is crucial, i just dont buy voters will vote for a gimp just to get trump out.

 

[Roads55]

Lol I shouldn’t be contributing here bc I don’t really give af and I have no action. But have you seen the new Lincoln Project video running on Fox News? Trump can’t lift a glass of water to his face or walk down a 91 degree ramp without looking like a frail peepaw.

tbh I thought the response was pretty exaggerated, it looked to me as if he just didn't want to spill the water as the glass was full, and he is old as fuck so idk what they expect lol. but he's definitely ageing faster now. I don't think it's a good strategy however for the dems to continually attack trump's health as that will just bring more attention to biden.

 

[Roads55]

Trump: 2.52
Biden: 1.81

inevitable, looks like trump's price want's to drift some more too.

 

[longway]

^went in too early, but i will pick up another 5u at these prices.

Btw it cant be biden 1.81 if trump is 2.51. Just checked and it is. I guess no one can be bothered to arb the 5%.

55% think dementia joe has early stage dementia, and thats b4 he has even emerged from his basement.

Whatever way you cut it, it is not good. This is why i think his vp pick will be a big, if not deciding factor on whether he will win or not, despite the current abysmal polls for Trump.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/poll-55-believe-that-biden-potentially-has-early-stages-of-dementia

I think you mentioned that trumps messaging has been poor recently. I think it's bc the msm has been setting the news cycle for a while. In 2016 trump had an incredible ability to dominate the news cycle and have everyone respond to him.

Its a bruising tactic, but you can see it is essential for him to do so. Fake news will never give him a fair shake, he has to grab them by the ahem and make them squeal to get his messaging across.

 

[Roads55]

I don't know what's wrong with biden but clearly it's pretty bad, and only going to get worse by debate time. on the other hand this basically feels like the best case scenario for him right now, I think he's hiding away not just to avoid gaffe's but to recoup after a long arduous primary, and preparing for november. But I still don't see what trump can do to reverse his chances in the short term.

VP is going to be a big media headline for a few days so i fully expect dems to strategically drop it at a time when it makes the most impact. or if they are potentially worried about immediate attacks on the pick then they can drop it on a big news day when trump has a lot of other things on his plate. with klobuchar pulling out and endorsing a black woman today I'm in a pretty good position on harris/denings now. also got a life changing profit if harris wins next president, some of these outsider prices seem kind of crazy with these 2 old ass liabilities for candidate's.

I think the media is getting better at getting on trump's nerves too and they sort of let him chase his own tail more to his own detriment.

 

[Joedaman55]

Been working a lot lately so haven’t paid attention to this thread in awhile. Nice, seems like Trump’s odds are going in the plus side, people seem to be underrating him again.

I think the primaries were going on at this time in 2016 but there were talks of the Republican Party imploding and polls showing similar trends. The polls only tightened towards the end. I still have Trump as a massive favorite as Clinton is a much stronger opponent than Biden.

Regarding VP, lol, it’ll be interesting. You usually want someone from a battleground state and Harris would be a disaster. Don’t know much about Demings but if she doesn’t have any major red flags she would make sense if she is popular in Florida.

 

[longway]

I don't know what's wrong with biden but clearly it's pretty bad, and only going to get worse by debate time. on the other hand this basically feels like the best case scenario for him right now, I think he's hiding away not just to avoid gaffe's but to recoup after a long arduous primary, and preparing for november. But I still don't see what trump can do to reverse his chances in the short term.

VP is going to be a big media headline for a few days so i fully expect dems to strategically drop it at a time when it makes the most impact. or if they are potentially worried about immediate attacks on the pick then they can drop it on a big news day when trump has a lot of other things on his plate. with klobuchar pulling out and endorsing a black woman today I'm in a pretty good position on harris/denings now. also got a life changing profit if harris wins next president, some of these outsider prices seem kind of crazy with these 2 old ass liabilities for candidate's.

I think the media is getting better at getting on trump's nerves too and they sort of let him chase his own tail more to his own detriment.

I dont think trump has to do anything. He is just bearing the brunt of people's frustrations, and as you say, fake news has been getting the upperhand in the messaging of late, so much of this is just not in his control.

All he has to do is start campaigning and laying his vision the next 4 years. In 2 months time, much of this craziness will be behind us, and imo will hurt the democrats more.

I just see it as a downcycle in a broadly uoward trend. Just a couple of months ago he was a justified favourite.

Bidens issues are huge. He has no vision or ideas that help people, and his 40 years in government attest to that deficit, and on top of that, is not up to being president.

For me the wild cards are the vp pick and the timing of the inevitable stockmarket crash.

Id wish you luck with your harris bet, but her becoming president would be life changing for everyone.

 

[Yotsuya]

I don't know much about US politics, but my impression is, that the administration behind the president can do most of the work, so a weak president with strong crew is a safer choice than a strong headed but unreliable president with weak crew. If we have an election during a time of crisis (corona), the whole thing might not be reduced as media entertainment and losing the debates might not count as much. My question is, that will the boomers vote Trump again, if they have been fearing the virus for good part of the year? Democrats and Biden have 100% support from the healthcare lobbies and Trump has been pretty flimsy about the whole thing. Traditional wisdom says, that during the time of crisis Americans unify behind the current president, but traditional wisdom has not applied to Trump before, so I'm not sure it'll apply here either. Just curious about maybe adding some on Biden if the debates bring him back on even money.

 

[Roads55]

I dont think trump has to do anything. He is just bearing the brunt of people's frustrations, and as you say, fake news has been getting the upperhand in the messaging of late, so much of this is just not in his control.

All he has to do is start campaigning and laying his vision the next 4 years. In 2 months time, much of this craziness will be behind us, and imo will hurt the democrats more.

I just see it as a downcycle in a broadly uoward trend. Just a couple of months ago he was a justified favourite.

Bidens issues are huge. He has no vision or ideas that help people, and his 40 years in government attest to that deficit, and on top of that, is not up to being president.

For me the wild cards are the vp pick and the timing of the inevitable stockmarket crash.

Id wish you luck with your harris bet, but her becoming president would be life changing for everyone.

I think he needs to do something to stop this momentum that is building against him, it's becoming dangerous for his chances imo. the market is spooked by something today too, trump's drifted more to 2.66, with biden at 1.75. I think on paper a lot of this should hurt the democrats, but atm it just doesn't seem to be the case, or at least not as much as it is hurting trump. this new shooting for instance should be worse for dems ( just going of the headline, I haven't read about it yet tbh) but since they distanced themselves from the defund the police narrative and it's happened on trump's watch these things just don't seem to be benefiting trump. I think it's possible that 2nd wave fears and biden's possible debate gaffe's will not hurt as much as they should.
and this is before things that will hurt trump straight out like a possible stock market crash like you said. a small concern i have for trump too is that he's firing on all cylinders atm, he's got a shit ton on his plate and he's going balls to the wall between dealing with covid, trying to get the economy going, foreign relations with china and the rest of the world, campaign rallies, twitter, smack talking with dems etc etc. while biden is just at home taking it easy letting trump wear himself out.

yeah don't get me wrong harris winning would be crazy but I have almost no risk as I have been trading her price from 1000/1 to 150/1 currently, so it's basically a free bet at this stage, If she gets VP she should shorten below 100/1 maybe to like 50/1 or something where i can lay her a bit for soem extra profit on everyone else while still having a giant green on her, that's the plan anyway.

 

[longway]

I think he needs to do something to stop this momentum that is building against him, it's becoming dangerous for his chances imo. the market is spooked by something today too, trump's drifted more to 2.66, with biden at 1.75. I think on paper a lot of this should hurt the democrats, but atm it just doesn't seem to be the case, or at least not as much as it is hurting trump. this new shooting for instance should be worse for dems ( just going of the headline, I haven't read about it yet tbh) but since they distanced themselves from the defund the police narrative and it's happened on trump's watch these things just don't seem to be benefiting trump. I think it's possible that 2nd wave fears and biden's possible debate gaffe's will not hurt as much as they should.
and this is before things that will hurt trump straight out like a possible stock market crash like you said. a small concern i have for trump too is that he's firing on all cylinders atm, he's got a shit ton on his plate and he's going balls to the wall between dealing with covid, trying to get the economy going, foreign relations with china and the rest of the world, campaign rallies, twitter, smack talking with dems etc etc. while biden is just at home taking it easy letting trump wear himself out.

yeah don't get me wrong harris winning would be crazy but I have almost no risk as I have been trading her price from 1000/1 to 150/1 currently, so it's basically a free bet at this stage, If she gets VP she should shorten below 100/1 maybe to like 50/1 or something where i can lay her a bit for soem extra profit on everyone else while still having a giant green on her, that's the plan anyway.

I got to admit i have no real explanation why he is trailing so badly. I suspect there is some manipulation to make it look worse than it is, though i dont dispute sleepy joe is clearly leading.

To my conspiratorial mind, you could not have planned a more perfect storm to take out a sitting prez, and there is still the damocles sword of the stockmarket catastrophe hanging over him.

I think his odds drifted further bc his first rally was a damp squib, only managing 6000-7000 attendees. This is not a good look, espcially as they did a bad job of managing expectations; they over promised and under delivered attendance.

I do think the current zeitgeist is one of dissapated energy; lacking focus and direction. This was something he used manage beautifully, but perhaps now has too many balls in the air to create that psychic picture of clarity, energy and focus.

He needs to get his mojo going, or fake news is doing a good job in covering him up with their bs. He needs create this vibe again.



Good luck with your Harris bet, but for all our sakes i hope it never cashes.

 

[Yotsuya]

Damn, the amounts of conformity required of the Average Joe is getting into so absurd levels, that unless Dems take it back a notch or two with clear signals, they could loose a lot of mainstream support while maybe gaining some far left votes. That Washington Post costume party blackface expose was sick. Fear of getting cancelled and humiliated could easily outweigh the fear of corona or economy. Biden seems still kind of the rational choice for a mainstream person, but Trump is masterful at breeding irrationality. Just bought out of my Biden bet at about 1u profit.

 

[longway]

Damn, the amounts of conformity required of the Average Joe is getting into so absurd levels, that unless Dems take it back a notch or two with clear signals, they could loose a lot of mainstream support while maybe gaining some far left votes. That Washington Post costume party blackface expose was sick. Fear of getting cancelled and humiliated could easily outweigh the fear of corona or economy. Biden seems still kind of the rational choice for a mainstream person, but Trump is masterful at breeding irrationality. Just bought out of my Biden bet at about 1u profit.

I largely agree with you, but no sign of any blow back in the polling. Biden seems to be holding pretty firm.

I can only guess that voters are holding the whole COVID malarkey against Trump.

If the polling indicates no change in 2 months, looks like i will have to eat a loss and sell my Trump bets, as i just dont understand these numbers.

 

[Yotsuya]

I largely agree with you, but no sign of any blow back in the polling. Biden seems to be holding pretty firm.

I can only guess that voters are holding the whole COVID malarkey against Trump.

If the polling indicates no change in 2 months, looks like i will have to eat a loss and sell my Trump bets, as i just dont understand these numbers.

People lied in polls last time too. Too much conformity pressure. I don't remember how much was the difference between polls and reality though.

 

[longway]

People lied in polls last time too. Too much conformity pressure. I don't remember how much was the difference between polls and reality though.

I am sure there is manipulation and silent trumpers, the rhetoric these days is unbelievable, but it cant fully explain the huge lead biden enjoys currently.

Tbh i am at a loss to explain it, beyond imagining trump is being blamed for the coronavirus, you can see fake news constantly pushing the coronavirus is out of control narrative.

 

[Yotsuya]

I am sure there is manipulation and silent trumpers, the rhetoric these days is unbelievable, but it cant fully explain the huge lead biden enjoys currently.

Tbh i am at a loss to explain it, beyond imagining trump is being blamed for the coronavirus, you can see fake news constantly pushing the coronavirus is out of control narrative.

Hah, my bet was so small I didn’t bother to do much study. I didn’t realize the difference in polls between Trump and Clinton was actually pretty small 2016 compared how big it’s now.

 

[Roads55]

@longway and everyone else, ABORT trump bets! repeat ABORT

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

Giant spike in covid deaths yesterday, that's going to put a lot of pressure on more lockdowns which will make unemployment rise, the economy shrinking etc. trump's going to drift more from here it seems pretty likely.

 

[Roads55]

wow trump is at 2.92 (+192) now.