Political Betting Thread

“His?” Anonymous is a large group of hacktivists not a person.

it would stand to reason that any information they have on Trump would be most effective in October not in the midst of a pandemic and the world on fire.

Trump is dead in the water.
 
TrueAscension said:
“His?” Anonymous is a large group of hacktivists not a person.

it would stand to reason that any information they have on Trump would be most effective in October not in the midst of a pandemic and the world on fire.

Trump is dead in the water.
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Are you betting on it?
 
Dead in water is overstating, this anonymous thing is bs, and i am betting on it.

I used think i was very in tune with the zetgeist of the times, but not so confident anymore. 2020 may prove to be so traumatic that voters just reflexively pull the lever for biden, just to change something, no matter how futile the gesture.

But 6 months to go, and at plus odds on trump, i am a buyer. I can always sell my position if i dont think he will win.
 
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longway said:
Dead in water is overstating, this anonymous thing is bs, and i am betting on it.

I used think i was very in tune with the zetgeist of the times, but not so confident anymore. 2020 may prove to be so traumatic that voters just reflexively pull the lever for biden, just to change something, no matter how futile the gesture.

But 6 months to go, and at plus odds on trump, i am a buyer. I can always sell my position if i dont think he will win.
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fair enough and best of luck with your bet
 
Added 9u more to my trump bet at+128 I dont think these plus odds will last too long.

In a sea of moo moos, i think independents will realise there is no one but daddy on the ticket.

Also, dims have jammed themselves up with the way they handled these riots, not much choice beyond harris as vp now, or god help biden; abrahms. Harris way too irritating for anyone to handle and she has a terrible record as ag. Michael is their only hope out of this logjam.
 
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I can’t see Trump winning any of the minority vote and Biden should appeal to some republicans that are just sick of the way Trump acts

His rabid base will come out so I don’t hate the bet but I feel like you’re going to get better odds in the near future
 
TrueAscension said:
I can’t see Trump winning any of the minority vote and Biden should appeal to some republicans that are just sick of the way Trump acts

His rabid base will come out so I don’t hate the bet but I feel like you’re going to get better odds in the near future
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The only rabid people i see are those who hate trump. Have you not been paying attention to their ever crazier antics for the last 4 years?

His popularity is sky high with republicans, he got record numbers of votes during the primaries, even when the nomination was already a given.

These riots wont do him any harm at all either, probably help him once people have a chance to assess whats been happening.

Biden is a likable guy, but even those who like him know he isnt up to the job, all eyes will be on the vp pick. That choice will give alot of info on his chances.

Here is my prediction, win or lose, Trump will get the highest share of the black and hispanic vote than any republican in history.

We can mark this post if you like.
 
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longway said:
The only rabid people i see are those who hate trump. Have you not been paying attention to their ever crazier antics for the last 4 years?

Biden is a likable guy, but even those who like him know he isnt up to the job, all eyes will be on the vp pick. That choice will give alot of info on his chances.

Here is my prediction, win or lose, Trump will get the highest share of the black and hispanic vote than any republican in history.

We can mark this post if you like.
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both sides are rabid brother. saying that trump fans aren’t rabid is just silly. I dont understand people who support division in any capacity and both sides are equally guilty of being complete cunts to each other

you can mark the post all you want. I’ve never seen an election with worse candidates in my lifetime. I am curious though if you’re right about the black/Latino vote.
 
^ i suppose in the sense that some republicans have always been crazy, yeah, but there is nothing especially rabid about trump's base.

Trump haters oth, oh my effing god, they are loons, and not just a fringe either. I have one in my relatives group that literally froths at the mouth when his name is mentioned, and even the ones who are not visibly crazy say the craziest shit about him.

I find calling him divisive bs too he cant be held responsible for blind hatred and lies. Man, i cant even tell some people i know i have a soft spot for the trumpenfuhrer, they will go nuts on me, and several have.
 
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Any person who votes for a racist old man who’s been in office since 73 and only makes things worse when he opens his mouth has serious problems. Easy for him because he forgets everything! Let’s not forget every poll in 2016 had Trump losing he was +500 after taking a early lead. There’s a thing called the silent majority. Facts over feelings. Anyone in the stock market or owns a business will be voting for Trump. Biden will have atleast 1 fuck up each month leading up to the election especially the more he comes out of the basement.
 
TrueAscension said:
I can’t see Trump winning any of the minority vote and Biden should appeal to some republicans that are just sick of the way Trump acts

His rabid base will come out so I don’t hate the bet but I feel like you’re going to get better odds in the near future
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You were right about the better odds, +140 on Betfair right now.

Not sure what is driving the senitiment this way, but it is way oversold imo.

The defund the police movement, these, lets call them 'civil disturbances', and the dnc response to them, plays right into trump's hands.

Alot of people must be freaking out hearing and seeing this crap.
 
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longway said:
You were right about the better odds, +140 on Betfair right now.

Not sure what is driving the senitiment this way, but it is way oversold imo.

The defund the police movement, these, lets call them 'civil disturbances', and the dnc response to them, plays right into trump's hands.

Alot of people must be freaking out hearing and seeing this crap.
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seems obvious to me when i posted that all of trump's rash tweets and worsening polls would be responsible:

https://www.vox.com/2020/6/8/21284096/presidential-election-polls-biden-lead (actually pretty reasonable for vox)

Also dems are now falling in line behind the idea that de-funding the police is not necessary, they should of done it sooner probably but they realized how crazy it is and have to pick a direction while trying to keep the air of still listening to the protesters:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...id_of_the_police_we_have_to_be_practical.html
 
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^ i meant why further from +130 to +141.

The polls are clearly bad. But, i am willing to buy at these prices. I will prob add 5u more.

Im pretty hopeful that given these protests that biden will be forced to pick harris as vp. Maybe demming (sp?). If harris, its a big confidence increase for me as she has an annoying and grating personality, and given that biden himself is not up to the job, then it will be very difficult people to vote for him. Dont forget, debates still to come though, i guess, democrats will try to avoid them if biden still maintains big lead, but can they hide him until november? Trump is still trusted over biden on economy, and that is a big factor imo.

Also, these protests, in medium term, will damage democrats imo, as their party is filled with ill disciplined and crazy radicals that the corporate dems are finding increasingly diffucult to control, that will do and espouse ever crazier things and ideas stemming from them.

Eg minni council decided to disband police, 6 blocks of seattle now occupied by antifa or whoever.

Also, all this crazy stuff happening in dnc strongholds, and increasingly apparent they cant maintain order when they are in charge.

Of course i will keep an eye on it and sell if i think its warranted, but its over sold on sentiment imo.
 
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longway said:
^ i meant why further from +130 to +141.

The polls are clearly bad. But, i am willing to buy at these prices. I will prob add 5u more.

Im pretty hopeful that given these protests that biden will be forced to pick harris as vp. Maybe demming (sp?). If harris, its a big confidence increase for me as she has an annoying and grating personality, and given that biden himself is not up to the job, then it will be very difficult people to vote for him. Dont forget, debates still to come though, i guess, democrats will try to avoid them if biden still maintains big lead, but can they hide him until november? Trump is still trusted over biden on economy, and that is a big factor imo.

Also, these protests, in medium term, will damage democrats imo, as their party is filled with ill disciplined and crazy radicals that the corporate dems are finding increasingly diffucult to control, that will do and espouse ever crazier things and ideas stemming from them.

Eg minni council decided to disband police, 6 blocks of seattle now occupied by antifa or whoever.

Also, all this crazy stuff happening in dnc strongholds, and increasingly apparent they cant maintain order when they are in charge.

Of course i will keep an eye on it and sell if i think its warranted, but its over sold on sentiment imo.
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was probably the last couple polls that pushed trump out more, the cnn one that had biden + 14 and an economist one had him +8 a couple days ago. just a continuation of biden's lead growing I think.

Yeah as for VP i think it's between harris and dennings atm, but I haven't gone too big on this market so far as more research is needed. warren might have an outside chance but she's too old imo, but she has the best chance of swaying progressives I guess, it comes down to dems taking the progressive vote for granted expecting them to fall in line and vote biden anyway or actually placating them with a progressive candidate on the safe side, but atm they don't seem to fussed on giving ground to progressives, but these protests could potentially change that. Although i feel like a black woman would do more to placate the protesters than an actual progressive as of now.
And it's pretty clear harris is being groomed/trained to be a future leader if not now then in a future election, so she would be the strongest back up in the seemingly probably chance of biden not making it 4 years if he is elected.
 
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Roads55 said:
was probably the last couple polls that pushed trump out more, the cnn one that had biden + 14 and an economist one had him +8 a couple days ago. just a continuation of biden's lead growing I think.

Yeah as for VP i think it's between harris and dennings atm, but I haven't gone too big on this market so far as more research is needed. warren might have an outside chance but she's too old imo, but she has the best chance of swaying progressives I guess, it comes down to dems taking the progressive vote for granted expecting them to fall in line and vote biden anyway or actually placating them with a progressive candidate on the safe side, but atm they don't seem to fussed on giving ground to progressives, but these protests could potentially change that. Although i feel like a black woman would do more to placate the protesters than an actual progressive as of now.
And it's pretty clear harris is being groomed/trained to be a future leader if not now then in a future election, so she would be the strongest back up in the seemingly probably chance of biden not making it 4 years if he is elected.
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I can only pray it is warren, and up to now i thought that would be their play, for the reasons you stated, but it would not help them attract the bernie bros imo, they literally cant stand her, and she would have driven a sig. Number to trump. But this blm crap means its got to be a black woman.

I hope its Harris, the worst choice for my bet would be Michael, as thats basically a 3rd obama term, and my gut says US voters would go for that option over trump.

The polling is dire for trump currently, but i still think this is temporary, and plus odds is a bargain.

What's happened in seattle exemplifies why. Their antifa autonomous zone has already gone lord of the flies in 2 days, and has their very own baby warlord. I just cant believe a typical indie voter would look at this and not shudder when imagining what would happen if the dnc took over the federal government in these crazy times.



Then you got the taliban style statue toppling frenzy now too. The crazies are not even trying to hide their crazy anymore bc they have taken over the asylum commonly known as the dnc now.
 
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Baby warlord pleads, dont let my death be in vain.

sweet jebus, you cant make this sh1t up.

 
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