Political Betting Thread

[Joedaman55]

it's a pretty big stretch to say hillary was a stronger candidate than biden, in some ways she is and in many she absolutely isn't. why should ppl who have "serious money" not be on politics or mma? shit's way more entertaining than staring at stock graphs all day, and it is easier to spot value on.

what do you mean? in 2016 trump was getting more and more popular in florida that's literally the opposite of what is happening now.

Exactly my point Roads, this is entertainment and people should understand that. If you’re about profit maximization you should not be betting politics or MMA with your money. I do it because I like to mess around with my disposable income and competing in tougher markets to profit.

Hillary is much stronger in my opinion as she has a strong voter base and is difficult for most people to debate. Biden can barely but together a coherent sentence, this isn’t 10 years ago Biden this is Biden who can’t remember what he ate this morning. The debate coming in September is going to be absolutely brutal, Trump’s gonna rip him a new asshole.

Look at the polls back then, some had Clinton with huge leads when I highly doubt that was the case. Florida has been close in recent elections and it’s likely one or two points for either side right now. There is zero chance those polls are accurate and the exact same thing was going on a year ago.

 

[Roads55]

Exactly my point Roads, this is entertainment and people should understand that. If you’re about profit maximization you should not be betting politics or MMA with your money. I do it because I like to mess around with my disposable income and competing in tougher markets to profit.

Hillary is much stronger in my opinion as she has a strong voter base and is difficult for most people to debate. Biden can barely but together a coherent sentence, this isn’t 10 years ago Biden this is Biden who can’t remember what he ate this morning. The debate coming in September is going to be absolutely brutal, Trump’s gonna rip him a new asshole.

Look at the polls back then, some had Clinton with huge leads when I highly doubt that was the case. Florida has been close in recent elections and it’s likely one or two points for either side right now. There is zero chance those polls are accurate and the exact same thing was going on a year ago.

so because somethings is entertaining you shouldn't be betting serious money on it? I don't get that haha. you think stock traders aren't entertained by what they do? I do it because i can make a living out of it and the edge is a lot more valuable for me than anything i could find in stocks, and on top of it I really enjoy it too. but that's all relative to your own personal background I guess. for me betting on stocks would be the same as you betting on mma. the idea is the same. and to a certain extent betting on stocks is also taking into account political situations too.

I think we just disagree about Hillary. fact is as a whole she was the weakest candidate ever for the dems, if you take into account popularity, and I saw nothing in 2016 that indicated she is difficult to debate,especially with her high profile shady past. trump isn't exactly a master debater either. but I do agree that biden is potentially 1 or 2 gaffe's away from becoming weaker than Hillary. and the upcoming debates could spell real trouble for him, especially with trump's style of debating. But to me it feels like people are putting all their eggs in 1 basket expecting trump to win the election single-handidly from the debates when biden's last debate was probably his strongest.

I am just not willing to bet money on trump right now on that 1 condition however, especially with the time between now and then and the likelihood that trump does or says something terrible for his campaign, like that video he retweeted with the guy shouting white power, If I still had money on trump I would be at a loss for words upon seeing that, and tbh I'm gobsmacked that the media didn't run with that story for more than half a day...that really makes no sense to me. although I'm all for considering betting trump closer to the debates under the right circumstances.

I still don't know what similar trends you mean, the florida polls at this stage in 2016 had trump's #'s pretty stagnant, while they have dropped significantly the last month or so. the gap between biden and trump is much larger than in 2016, and the largest gap then was only for a few days juxtaposed with a much bigger gap over a much longer period of time this year. I do think there is some inaccuracy in the polls like 2016 but as it stands today, that simply would not make up for the gap.

 

[Yotsuya]

I've been thinking lately, that maybe it was actually a good strategy from Democrats to get behind Biden, because he's so utterly neutral character where as Trump feeds on anything that's divisive. Hillary was clearly the easier opponent for him as he could get people riled up to vote against her. Biden has severe weaknesses, but it's hard to get mad enough about him to vote someone as incompetent as Trump?

 

[longway]

@Yotsuya @Roads55 i think you guys make good points on biden's current favourability. One counterpoint i would like to make is that killary herself started off with a very high favourability, but more voters saw of her, the less they liked her. Biden is not unlikable like Killary, but he is also very clearly not up to the job and has one foot in the grave, so the VP will get much more scrutiny that nomral. If his VP is a Killary clone, ie Harris, then Trump has a good chance, as his voters are enthusiastic to vote for him, but it will be hard to drive people vote against Trump with a liability like Harris on the ticket. That's my hypothesis anyway.

My main concern with trump is that he is letting the media define the narrative on the COVID situation, and that is probably the primary concern with a core demographic that trump needs - the over 65s. He was doing well when he was doing the daily briefings and he needs to re-instate that somehow, he has to drive the news cycle, its a non-stop part of his job, in addition to the normal duties of a president.

 

[Roads55]

@Yotsuya @Roads55 i think you guys make good points on biden's current favourability. One counterpoint i would like to make is that killary herself started off with a very high favourability, but more voters saw of her, the less they liked her. Biden is not unlikable like Killary, but he is also very clearly not up to the job and has one foot in the grave, so the VP will get much more scrutiny that nomral. If his VP is a Killary clone, ie Harris, then Trump has a good chance, as his voters are enthusiastic to vote for him, but it will be hard to drive people vote against Trump with a liability like Harris on the ticket. That's my hypothesis anyway.

My main concern with trump is that he is letting the media define the narrative on the COVID situation, and that is probably the primary concern with a core demographic that trump needs - the over 65s. He was doing well when he was doing the daily briefings and he needs to re-instate that somehow, he has to drive the news cycle, its a non-stop part of his job, in addition to the normal duties of a president.

Biden had a similar favourability lead in the race for the nomination and then started to plummet when bernie was on the rise, but his number held up remarkably well for a long time until they didn't (crazy how long ago that feels) so I can see potential on his number's dropping fast a lot closer to the election. yeah I agree about kamala, I've soured on her vp chances a little but still think she's the fav. apparently there's been a concerted effort to edit her wiki page lately removing some of the more negative parts: https://theintercept.com/2020/07/02/kamala-harris-wikipedia/ and as and as bad as some of her past actions have been she does optically make the biden ticket look a lot stronger with her as the back up, which might stave of some of the biden is too weak narrative but I might be reaching a bit there.

I've been pretty unimpressed with how trump and team have handled the covid narrative tbh, although he has started to take a strong stance on it recently when he started taking about the death rate plummeting. I don't understand why he didn't do this ages ago, but can see why he held of in the last few weeks since the protests started in case there was a spike in deaths, but it seems as if the rapid increase in confirmed cases is not resulting in a spike in deaths so far which is great news for him when it's sorely needed.
Also I think he could of done a better job at highlighting the US's relatively low death rate relative to the population which is much lower than many of the worst european countries.Combine that with america's sizable natural disadvantage's in light of a global pandemic such as the country being the global hub of travel and trade could of resulted in a lot of damage limitation from the media's response.

 

[Roads55]

couple other quick things to consider:

Biden's campaign is raking in the money and even outraising trump iirc in june. this is pretty significant considering the lack of enthusiasm he creates, and the trouble he had raising money in the primaries. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...895dfe-bc05-11ea-80b9-40ece9a701dc_story.html

The economic recovery trump want's/needs will be hindered for several more weeks at least as the soaring corona cases will obscure info about the falling death rate.

 

[longway]

she does optically make the biden ticket look a lot stronger with her as the back up, which might stave of some of the biden is too weak

Thats my hope, on a superficial level she is the right choice. However, she isn't up to the job either, and that will be sniffed out pretty fast. Its not just me who thinks that, dnc primary voters literally stampeded away from her after tulsi attacked her. The attack was signalled prior to the debate, but even with that warning she was blindsided by an obvious line of attack, so she has no real foresight on even a basic level, or she would have had an answer ready. She looked bad on many levels.

Its no wonder she ended up wandering around handing out cookies in a pathetic attempt to ressurect her campaign.

She largely trades on a sycophantic press and fanbase that look no further than her skin colour and sex, so is out of her depth whenever she strays out of her comfort zone. It doesnt help that she is fake and annoying to boot.

 

[mkess101]

Man...rioting and protesting Independence day may work in Trump's favor. Might be some swing voters who were leaning Biden who see this stuff and don't equate it to the other BLM protests and are wary about what it could mean going forward. Fighting for equality and justice is one thing, trying to rewrite all of American history as worthless is upping the ante quite a bit. I would not be surprised to see the polls tighten a bit after what went on this weekend. I don't see a huge swing, but I think you may see a little blowback from it away from the Dems.

For anyone (not sure if there are any here) who built a big positin on Biden when he was evens or +, might not be the worst time to hedge off a bit on Trump at +155 or whatever he is right now.

 

[Roads55]

I've noticed that the lack of coverage of the protests has dems realizing that too much coverage is not benefiting them and might actually even help trump. feels like a line has been drawn by republicans and voters and the repeated calls for dismantling the country from the far left is hurting dem chances.

 

[Joedaman55]

so because somethings is entertaining you shouldn't be betting serious money on it? I don't get that haha. you think stock traders aren't entertained by what they do? I do it because i can make a living out of it and the edge is a lot more valuable for me than anything i could find in stocks, and on top of it I really enjoy it too. but that's all relative to your own personal background I guess. for me betting on stocks would be the same as you betting on mma. the idea is the same. and to a certain extent betting on stocks is also taking into account political situations too.

I think we just disagree about Hillary. fact is as a whole she was the weakest candidate ever for the dems, if you take into account popularity, and I saw nothing in 2016 that indicated she is difficult to debate,especially with her high profile shady past. trump isn't exactly a master debater either. but I do agree that biden is potentially 1 or 2 gaffe's away from becoming weaker than Hillary. and the upcoming debates could spell real trouble for him, especially with trump's style of debating. But to me it feels like people are putting all their eggs in 1 basket expecting trump to win the election single-handidly from the debates when biden's last debate was probably his strongest.

I am just not willing to bet money on trump right now on that 1 condition however, especially with the time between now and then and the likelihood that trump does or says something terrible for his campaign, like that video he retweeted with the guy shouting white power, If I still had money on trump I would be at a loss for words upon seeing that, and tbh I'm gobsmacked that the media didn't run with that story for more than half a day...that really makes no sense to me. although I'm all for considering betting trump closer to the debates under the right circumstances.

I still don't know what similar trends you mean, the florida polls at this stage in 2016 had trump's #'s pretty stagnant, while they have dropped significantly the last month or so. the gap between biden and trump is much larger than in 2016, and the largest gap then was only for a few days juxtaposed with a much bigger gap over a much longer period of time this year. I do think there is some inaccuracy in the polls like 2016 but as it stands today, that simply would not make up for the gap.

Again, if your about investment, no, entertainment shouldn’t be a factor in how you profit maximize. If you want to make money on entertainment, nothing wrong with that. I bet much, much higher in business/stocks than MMA but I do that to profit maximize not to entertain me. Mma betting, phone games, whatever else I want to do, that’s all mess around money.

I think people will look differently at Hilary after this Biden run but we’ll see. The Florida polls were way off at this stage heavily showing Democrats ahead. If it were one or two polls, it might fit the margin of error, but it’s not. This is signaling a systematic failure in polling which occurred last time.

Since people are seeing a lot of value in this polling misinformation, it’s shifting odds to areas they shouldn’t naturally be. Combine this with the future debate debacles, he should be a decent favorite. Biden did look best in his last debate but it wasn’t against Trump, Trump has a style that brings the worst out in his opponents. He did it to Bush, Rubio, Cruz, and Hillary; 3/4’s Of that list is better than Biden at this stage in his career.

 

[Joedaman55]

I've noticed that the lack of coverage of the protests has dems realizing that too much coverage is not benefiting them and might actually even help trump. feels like a line has been drawn by republicans and voters and the repeated calls for dismantling the country from the far left is hurting dem chances.

I think the media organizations think advertising COVID is the stronger play, the protests will be back in focus but people are getting fatigued by them. Need to change news cycles to keep people entertained and continuing watching their material.

 

[Roads55]

Again, if your about investment, no, entertainment shouldn’t be a factor in how you profit maximize. If you want to make money on entertainment, nothing wrong with that. I bet much, much higher in business/stocks than MMA but I do that to profit maximize not to entertain me. Mma betting, phone games, whatever else I want to do, that’s all mess around money.

I think people will look differently at Hilary after this Biden run but we’ll see. The Florida polls were way off at this stage heavily showing Democrats ahead. If it were one or two polls, it might fit the margin of error, but it’s not. This is signaling a systematic failure in polling which occurred last time.

Since people are seeing a lot of value in this polling misinformation, it’s shifting odds to areas they shouldn’t naturally be. Combine this with the future debate debacles, he should be a decent favorite. Biden did look best in his last debate but it wasn’t against Trump, Trump has a style that brings the worst out in his opponents. He did it to Bush, Rubio, Cruz, and Hillary; 3/4’s Of that list is better than Biden at this stage in his career.

Your assuming that entertainment is the main factor of doing this, I never said that. It's just a bonus. I would hate to gamble when i don't enjoy it, that would lead to more irrational decisions.
It's simply a matter of acquired knowledge, I know much more about mma than i do stocks and the opportunity to make money betting mma is so much easier than stocks with how soft the market is albeit with less potential to make really big money. If I had to make a choice between gambling on mma or gambling on stock numbers as a job then there's really no competition for me. It's also a very good stepping stone to understanding market dynamics, I see it as a very good talent to stack that can overlap with other areas of gambling especially crypto with the prevalence of books using btc as a deposit method/balance and that in turn is a very good area to transition to gambling on currency/stocks.

I think people will look at Hillary the same, Biden is just extremely weak in a different way. he has some pro's that Hillary never did too, and also has giant vulnerabilities that Hillary never did. Imo Dem's focus will change to questioning the successive abysmal candidates being shoved out in the wake of one of their strongest candidates in obama. especially if they lose, and it could result in a substantial modernization of their politics and candidates. With how hated trump is it makes no sense they would choose biden as the man to take him down when they believe getting rid of trump is almost a matter of life and death.
I do think the polls are not accurate but I still think biden is ahead as of now. trump's odds do seem a little inflated, especially after that latest clip of biden going viral. he looks like he's getting worse and with that my expectations of his vulnerability in the debates is growing. A few weeks ago it seemed obvious that the bet to make was "not trump", I made some green on that and now I think there's value on "not biden" most of the short term trump bad news is already in.

I think the media organizations think advertising COVID is the stronger play, the protests will be back in focus but people are getting fatigued by them. Need to change news cycles to keep people entertained and continuing watching their material.

yeah the corona news cycle is going to be cut short as the death rate is not rising with the amount of corona cases, they will shift to something else soon.

 

[Roads55]

Focus will start to turn towards the debates and VP pick soon and that means a lot more biden appearances and chances for the republicans to hammer home he isn't fit to be president. I bet a few units on "not biden" earlier and going to look to add, I think he'll drift at some point, especially if polls start to narrow. that hill/harris poll had him up by 4, that's a big difference to the rest but 1 or 2 more like that will start to paint a picture.

 

[Joedaman55]

Your assuming that entertainment is the main factor of doing this, I never said that. It's just a bonus. I would hate to gamble when i don't enjoy it, that would lead to more irrational decisions.
It's simply a matter of acquired knowledge, I know much more about mma than i do stocks and the opportunity to make money betting mma is so much easier than stocks with how soft the market is albeit with less potential to make really big money. If I had to make a choice between gambling on mma or gambling on stock numbers as a job then there's really no competition for me. It's also a very good stepping stone to understanding market dynamics, I see it as a very good talent to stack that can overlap with other areas of gambling especially crypto with the prevalence of books using btc as a deposit method/balance and that in turn is a very good area to transition to gambling on currency/stocks.

I think people will look at Hillary the same, Biden is just extremely weak in a different way. he has some pro's that Hillary never did too, and also has giant vulnerabilities that Hillary never did. Imo Dem's focus will change to questioning the successive abysmal candidates being shoved out in the wake of one of their strongest candidates in obama. especially if they lose, and it could result in a substantial modernization of their politics and candidates. With how hated trump is it makes no sense they would choose biden as the man to take him down when they believe getting rid of trump is almost a matter of life and death.
I do think the polls are not accurate but I still think biden is ahead as of now. trump's odds do seem a little inflated, especially after that latest clip of biden going viral. he looks like he's getting worse and with that my expectations of his vulnerability in the debates is growing. A few weeks ago it seemed obvious that the bet to make was "not trump", I made some green on that and now I think there's value on "not biden" most of the short term trump bad news is already in.



yeah the corona news cycle is going to be cut short as the death rate is not rising with the amount of corona cases, they will shift to something else soon.

Yss, I agree that betting MMA or politics is a very good way to train yourself in markets. It is far tougher to profit in these markets although I’m prolly taking for granted other skills I have that make other markets easier for me.

The appeals for Hillary/Biden are different but most people haven’t visually seen how deteriorated Biden is (as most pay attention during national debates). He’ll fade after Trump makes a mockery of him. Key issues this election will be COVID-19, defunding police, and universal income. These three issues will shift voters one way or the other. Also, these issues are far different than normal election cycle issues.

 

[Roads55]

things going from bad to worse for trump with these polls. got out of "not biden" bet i made last week, trump's going to drift more i think. the bad news hasn't finished for him yet it seems.

 

[Roads55]

Seems pretty bearish for trump. he's recognized he needs to change up his campaign as it is failing hard right now, so will be interesting to see if his strategy changes at all. I expect more precise attacks on biden for starters.

 

[Yotsuya]

I found a Luciferian tarot deck from second hand bookstore yesterday. I did few fast reads on various subjects. One was on possible death of Joe Biden. It turned out pretty damn spooky:


It's a "cause - matter in hand - effect" read. First card is obvious: Biden leaves his corona isolation. Second is really eerie: Biden dies by the hands of a man with flaming hair... So maybe a heart attack during the debates? Effect card (King of Cups) seems like the snake is coiled around a grail, so Trump victorious and secure in his power?

Btw, I never cheat with dealing the cards, but when you do a few, sometimes you get stuff that actually heavily resonates with reality.

 

[longway]

^ thanks for sharing. i enjoyed that. ive never looked at tarot card readings.

the polls look bad for trump, but at least the tarot cards are going the right way!

 

[Yotsuya]

^ thanks for sharing. i enjoyed that. ive never looked at tarot card readings.

the polls look bad for trump, but at least the tarot cards are going the right way!

I love to fool around with tarot every now and then. It's like a random generator for perspectives. This read seems to emphasise, that Biden's absence from public has made him loose touch with voters and thus overconfident that his moral superiority will bring him victory. Classic Democrat mistake.

Btw, I also checked out my own death. Looks like reincarnation for me...

 

[longway]

Looks like Susan Rice is a likely pick, it's a good one for Biden imo. Cements the Obama nostalgia angle, and provides viable back up for POTUS when Biden is found wandering around a pool in his pjs looking for cornpop.

I just pray that they pick Harris instead.