Political Betting Thread

[Yotsuya]

Here’s my simplistic analysis as an outsider:

I bet 2.5u on ”not Trump” at evens after corona broke, because I think Trump needs his voters angry, not scared. Any mainstream Democrat is safer choice than Trump's renegade crew. A lot can happen before the elections, but the virus seems to be on rise again.

Last time Trump won because Dems were indifferent and his supporters furious. Currently both sides are furious. If the number of Democrats willing to vote Biden is rising, Trump is in trouble. I think the polls are off again a bit and some swing voters are saying the one thing and doing another, but I don't think it's enough, if this time Democrats show up on Election Day. I considered arbing out, but I'm keeping my bet after all.

 

[Roads55]

I'm pretty surprised so many ppl are betting/adding to trump right now, he's not doing good at all. physically he's losing a step too, he's been showing his age a lot more lately I feel.

 

[Roads55]

Continued protests and possibility of a second wave severely reducing his hopes of getting the economy and his falling economic ratings is a major hindrance to his chances right now. Dems strategy of playing biden as the empathetic guy who is being hidden away is working really well, they are just letting trump be trump and I feel he is in danger of spiraling.

EDIT: and that's before we even look at biden's poll leads, and how competitive he is in states trump previously dominated. Trump might be able to stem the flow but I'm having a hard time seeing how he reverses these polls at least in the short term.

 

[longway]

^ its not a strategy, its a neccesity. When biden emerges from his bunker, he will not survive any scrutiny by voters that do not already hate trump. Though, he can reduce or even reverse the damage of his unsuitability to be prez by his vp pick.

I cant really comment on state polls. We are in the midst of an unpresidented (yes, i know) crisis; a pandemic and economic apocalypse, yet trump job approval still above 40%.

Give it a couple of months, this is only pre-season stuff, campaigning has not even started yet. Biden himself is a write-off, how anyone can bet him at minus odds, without seeing his vp pick is a braver soul than me.

Next week, depending on odds, i will add another 5u on trump.

I sprinkled a little on rice as vp pick. Harris problem is she is an idiot, and a dislikable one at that. Biden is a likable idiot, so vp, at all costs, cannot be another idiot.



Rice also provides another link to the obama era, but has plenty of vunerabililties which trump can exploit.

There is one more point. Bc biden is a zombie prone to falling asleep mid-sentence, fake news will be playing up trump health issues to mitigate; its important to know that. Biden gets billions of free campaign advertising from fake news.

Wild card is the fed. They are pumping unreal sums of money into the finacial markets. I wonder if they are trying to stave off collapse til september, as that will hurt trump. I would prefer the collapse to occur now, then recovery would occur in september.

 

[mkess101]

I think there's staying power with this BLM movement and the push for social justice. And I think pro sports returning in the fall is going to give it a bump.

In the past voter turnout for black Americans hasn't been great (Obama's first time aside) for a myriad of reasons (disillusionment, apathy, suppression, etc) but I think it could be different this time.

There's a tidal wave of support for this movement with even Corp America getting on board. Now...how do they parlay that into the change that's sought? One way is elections. If they take some of the $ coming in and really push voter turnout (possibly via mailed ballots in many places) that could spell doom for Trump.

Biden's name won't matter, you'll just have a wave of people voting against Trump since he's equated with racism to so many.

 

[longway]

^ does it make any difference that this flare up of racial tensions being centred mainly in dnc strongholds? Its not like these places will go for trump anyway. But outsiders looking in will not want the same party in charge at the federal level as well. To me, in medium term, once dust settled, beneficiary is trump and gop.

 

[Oliver Clothesoff]

Democrats have lost their way, and this latest defund police thing isn't going to help. All it's done is show in living color how fucked up states are that are run by Democrats. If the economy starts coming back, then I think Trump wins and they lose the House to boot.

 

[OutRun]

Biden bettors not worried about his support falling by double digits once debates begin? It'll be too late to buy out of your action by then.

 

[mkess101]

^ does it make any difference that this flare up of racial tensions being centred mainly in dnc strongholds? Its not like these places will go for trump anyway. But outsiders looking in will not want the same party in charge at the federal level as well. To me, in medium term, once dust settled, beneficiary is trump and gop.

I honestly don't know if that's true. I think you have swing states exactly like mine (WI) where you have the population centers (Milwaukee and Dane County) that lean heavily Dem and the rest of the state which leans R. Trump won it in a very close race in 2016, and higher turnout in Milwaukee would have swung it to Hillary. There have to be other states similar to this (I'm far from an expert to be fair though).

And that's kind of what I was saying when I said this has more legs than any previous similar circumstances. I don't think the dust WILL settle much by election time. Yes, the protests may die down but you are going to have a huge push by the NBA (who's season is going to go into October) and tons of other celebs imploring black people to get out and vote Trump out of the WH. The GOP can and will spend a ton of $ to combat this (and of course the DNC will spend a ton too) but when Lebron is out there actively telling black Americans they need to vote Biden, that's a monstrous inherent advantage to getting that vote out. There's a reason guys like Lebron sign billion dollar endorsement deals: when they sell something, they get ears and eyes on them. When Lebron starts hard selling Biden, look out. That's just one example but a big one.

 

[mkess101]

Biden bettors not worried about his support falling by double digits once debates begin? It'll be too late to buy out of your action by then.

Haven't bet Biden but I'd say it has to be a concern for those who have. Biden is bumbling and quite obviously not adept at debates...at all. Trump isn't anything special either though.

This is such a unique situation. The ballot should really say:

Trump
NOT Trump

They don't even need to put Biden's name on the damn thing LMAO. Him flailing around at the debates (and he will) probably won't mean as much this election as it normally would.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

This thread is hilarious. Bunch of diehard trump bros jacking each other off. Last time I posted here Trump’s ML had moved from -300 to evens and everyone was all like nbd! Good luck w those trump bets you guys.

 

[Roads55]

This thread is hilarious. Bunch of diehard trump bros jacking each other off. Last time I posted here Trump’s ML had moved from -300 to evens and everyone was all like nbd! Good luck w those trump bets you guys.

Idk seems to be a good number of people on both sides of the debate and also bi-partisans. It's true imo that there are more right leaning people in the gambling communities though.
Trump's true odds never went to -300. as discussed before if you have a book that offered that price, time to find a new one. in reality he never went below around 1.67 on the exchanges which are by far the most accurate representation of the political odds. maybe because this is an mma forum where books still reign due to the niche appeal of mma betting for the most part.

I do think though that people are being too confident on trump atm, they are putting a lot of eggs in one basket on things like the very possible(but not certain) debate wins for trump.

 

[Roads55]

^ its not a strategy, its a neccesity. When biden emerges from his bunker, he will not survive any scrutiny by voters that do not already hate trump. Though, he can reduce or even reverse the damage of his unsuitability to be prez by his vp pick.

I cant really comment on state polls. We are in the midst of an unpresidented (yes, i know) crisis; a pandemic and economic apocalypse, yet trump job approval still above 40%.

Give it a couple of months, this is only pre-season stuff, campaigning has not even started yet. Biden himself is a write-off, how anyone can bet him at minus odds, without seeing his vp pick is a braver soul than me.

Next week, depending on odds, i will add another 5u on trump.

I sprinkled a little on rice as vp pick. Harris problem is she is an idiot, and a dislikable one at that. Biden is a likable idiot, so vp, at all costs, cannot be another idiot.



Rice also provides another link to the obama era, but has plenty of vunerabililties which trump can exploit.

There is one more point. Bc biden is a zombie prone to falling asleep mid-sentence, fake news will be playing up trump health issues to mitigate; its important to know that. Biden gets billions of free campaign advertising from fake news.

Wild card is the fed. They are pumping unreal sums of money into the finacial markets. I wonder if they are trying to stave off collapse til september, as that will hurt trump. I would prefer the collapse to occur now, then recovery would occur in september.

Biden doesn't need to survive scrutiny from trump voters though, he's already far ahead. as it stands all of biden's advantages are real/have already happened and are priced in. All trump bets right now are hinging on hypothetical's in a very volatile time in america's history. He might destroy biden in the debates, he might get the economy back on track, he might not do/say anything that further damages his chances, he might benefit from the BLM movement.

Democrats have lost their way, and this latest defund police thing isn't going to help. All it's done is show in living color how fucked up states are that are run by Democrats. If the economy starts coming back, then I think Trump wins and they lose the House to boot.

Biden and other top dems(harris etc) have moved away from this position and have stated that this is not the answer, this will likely become more of a calling card of progressives than most mod dems imo. possibly though this is good for dems, progressives I think seem more likely to fall in line and vote blue as they and the media are escalating the racist trump hate, and this will put less pressure to cave to progressive demands while putting a mod VP in. it seems much more likely dems will look to placate the "we demand a black women" crowd over progressives in the current environment.

Biden bettors not worried about his support falling by double digits once debates begin? It'll be too late to buy out of your action by then.

If they aren't they should be, but as of now Biden bettors are in a much better place with the current standing of their bets than most trump bettors, and are in a good position to freeroll or reduce liability on the field if they want. Personally I'm not touching biden at these odds, but i have risked a small "not trump" bet which i can trade out of at any time I like. I'm basically close to flat on this atm with a big green on harris, warren and haley and a small green on the field. I can see trump drifting a bit more in the short term, maybe to 2.5 on betfair, but personally I don't see value either side as of now, at least until things calm down a bit. I think Biden will be a great lay bet at some point, especially the debates.

and it's not strictly true that if biden has a bad debate ppl won't be able to buy out as many are in from much higher prices on biden.

Haven't bet Biden but I'd say it has to be a concern for those who have. Biden is bumbling and quite obviously not adept at debates...at all. Trump isn't anything special either though.

This is such a unique situation. The ballot should really say:

Trump
NOT Trump

They don't even need to put Biden's name on the damn thing LMAO. Him flailing around at the debates (and he will) probably won't mean as much this election as it normally would.

100%, each day that passes it matters less and less what biden does at least for the time being, him hiding away is working, right now it feels more like trump vs trump or trump vs the media.

 

[longway]

Biden doesn't need to survive scrutiny from trump voters though, he's already far ahead. as it stands all of biden's advantages are real/have already happened and are priced in. All trump bets right now are hinging on hypothetical's in a very volatile time in america's history. He might destroy biden in the debates, he might get the economy back on track, he might not do/say anything that further damages his chances, he might benefit from the BLM movement.



Biden and other top dems(harris etc) have moved away from this position and have stated that this is not the answer, this will likely become more of a calling card of progressives than most mod dems imo. possibly though this is good for dems, progressives I think seem more likely to fall in line and vote blue as they and the media are escalating the racist trump hate, and this will put less pressure to cave to progressive demands while putting a mod VP in. it seems much more likely dems will look to placate the "we demand a black women" crowd over progressives in the current environment.



If they aren't they should be, but as of now Biden bettors are in a much better place with the current standing of their bets than most trump bettors, and are in a good position to freeroll or reduce liability on the field if they want. Personally I'm not touching biden at these odds, but i have risked a small "not trump" bet which i can trade out of at any time I like. I'm basically close to flat on this atm with a big green on harris, warren and haley and a small green on the field. I can see trump drifting a bit more in the short term, maybe to 2.5 on betfair, but personally I don't see value either side as of now, at least until things calm down a bit. I think Biden will be a great lay bet at some point, especially the debates.

and it's not strictly true that if biden has a bad debate ppl won't be able to buy out as many are in from much higher prices on biden.


100%, each day that passes it matters less and less what biden does at least for the time being, him hiding away is working, right now it feels more like trump vs trump or trump vs the media.

Just back in march trump's approval and poll ratings were hitting aths iirc. Now, due to exeptional circumstances his approval and support is falling badly, but still not anywhere near atls.

Biden has not been priced in. He cant be priced in until he emerges from his basement, chooses a vp and begins campaigning. I dont know why you said he needs to survive scrutiny from trump voters, its the independent voters in swing states scrutiny he has to survive. And he needs to get his base out to vote for him. You think stuff happening now will drive turnout to dnc, i think its still too early to say.

What biden has now is his ceiling, and trump likely has his floor. To get these numbers biden needed a worldwide plague, economic apocolypse and widespread civil unrest and needs to hide. These are not his typical numbers.

Im not claiming trump is going to win 100%, but at these prices he is the value side.

Its always been trump v media, but to imagine voters will blindly pull the lever for biden is stretching credulity. Imo prez choice is a gut check binary vote. Less about policy, more about which one has the 'right stuff' to carry this mantle. Biden's biggest problem is that he very clearly doesnt have what it takes, so will require alot of things to go his way to cross the line first.

 

[longway]

This thread is hilarious. Bunch of diehard trump bros jacking each other off. Last time I posted here Trump’s ML had moved from -300 to evens and everyone was all like nbd! Good luck w those trump bets you guys.

When did he ever get -300? Put down the crack pipe.

I sold my bets on trump when this corona virus thing blew up. Now that it has played out to a certain extent, i am buying back in.

I still find it hard to see how this blm shit will ultimately help the democrats.

 

[Roads55]

Just back in march trump's approval and poll ratings were hitting aths iirc. Now, due to exeptional circumstances his approval and support is falling badly, but still not anywhere near atls.

Biden has not been priced in. He cant be priced in until he emerges from his basement, chooses a vp and begins campaigning. I dont know why you said he needs to survive scrutiny from trump voters, its the independent voters in swing states scrutiny he has to survive. And he needs to get his base out to vote for him. You think stuff happening now will drive turnout to dnc, i think its still too early to say.

What biden has now is his ceiling, and trump likely has his floor. To get these numbers biden needed a worldwide plague, economic apocolypse and widespread civil unrest and needs to hide. These are not his typical numbers.

Im not claiming trump is going to win 100%, but at these prices he is the value side.

I mean the reflection of how the race stands in light of what has happened has been priced in, the widening polls although misleading and not completely accurate represent a clear widening of biden's/dem/anti trump support. The odds shouldn't and didn't stay with trump a small/moderate favorite with these events, it represents significant volatility and uncertainty in which a lot of people with big trump bets are now fairly underwater on their positions.
I think you could be right about this possibly being joe's ceiling or at least close to it, but I don't see in the short term how trump reverses this, he will need to wait for the debates, or for the possible economic recovery while avoiding further mistakes, further covid outbreaks. just seems a bit risky for me to bet him atm.
I don't think his price will change too much for a couple weeks or longer in which time there might be a bit more clarity to the covid 2nd wave fears and the sustainability of the protests and the effects they might have, but I think there's more chances for trump to drift a little further first. personally if I wanted to bet trump (and I might soon) I would of waited a bit longer just to be a bit safer.

"I dont know why you said he needs to survive scrutiny from trump voters, its the independent voters in swing states scrutiny he has to survive. "

I said he doesn't need to. Independents are showing more support for dems than last election atm. trump needs to withstand scrutiny from them more right now. libertarians could be a giant factor here with such a weak field this year. but less so since the bernie threat was eliminated.
I think our differing opinions here are mostly just short term possibilities vs long term possibilities. I'm looking at the market right now with view of getting to a point where these unforeseen world changing factors become more predictable long term at which point I want to be very ready to pounce on whoever is in a better position.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

When did he ever get -300? Put down the crack pipe.
.

Trump was -350 on Bovada on 2/12

 

[longway]

Trump was -350 on Bovada on 2/12

I can only take your word for it, as i cant be bothered to look.

If i was getting -350 i would have sold out of my trump bets, as i had about 20u at +130 to +150 on him at the time.

Id never play -300 let alone -350. It must be a super thin market there.

 

[Roads55]

Trump was -350 on Bovada on 2/12

get a new book, that is one of the worst prices i've seen on anything in years. On the 12th of February Trump was around 1.57 on most books. and he was 1.64-1.66 on the exchanges. that price means nothing and absolutely did not represent the sentiment of the entire market.

 

[Roads55]