Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

I think there are 2 facets here, and we often conflate them, one is GE viability, and tbh honest I don't think anyone on that stage would survive a GE cycle with Trump.

The other is the dem primary, eventually voters will have to coalesce along 2 main poles represented by 2 candidates; those 2 will be Bernie and Bloomberg, imo anyway. Yeah, Biden is likable, but you got to at least be seen as moderately capable as well. Biden is not. I was confused for a while by the seeming imperiousness of Biden support given his clear mental decline, but my faith was restored, as when it came time to vote that 'support' melted away. I still think he wins SC, but I'm not bullish on his chances going forward.

Does Bloomberg win a plurality? Unlikely, but if it does go to a brokered convention, he is the most likely one to get the nomination.

for the last few weeks biden's been coming off as much more likable, but yeah his incoherence is holding him back from seriously having a chance imo. I'm still amazed it took so long for him to fade in the poll's but like you i stuck to my gut feeling and it eventually paid off although not as much as it should of. if he wins SC though that is really going to hinder bloomberg and benefit sanders, also it will severely damage bloombergs chance of coming 2nd in super tuesday as biden looks to be gaining a little bit of momentum and ofc that'll be amplified if he wins SC. and if bloomberg does have a limp super tuesday which i think looks likely, that will severely damage his credibility to win votes in the event of a brokered convention.
If he can't beat sanders or biden whilst spending $500 million+ then how on earth is he going to pull support together to beat trump, bernie poll's better than him vs trump as well which is another big red flag for his elect-ability . then you gotta consider what other skeletons are going to be dragged out from his past in the meantime.

 

[longway]

If he can't beat sanders or biden whilst spending $500 million+ then how on earth is he going to pull support together to beat trump, bernie poll's better than him vs trump as well which is another big red flag for his elect-ability . then you gotta consider what other skeletons are going to be dragged out from his past in the meantime.

I think what we neglect is that he will just make campaigning financially unsustainable for everyone else. There is a reason why Warren is now accepting super pac money now, and for the desperation on the debate stage. I can imagine Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg running out of money pretty soon.

Bloomberg can just buy the primaries to a certain extent, whatever his other weaknesses.

 

[Roads55]

I think what we neglect is that he will just make campaigning financially unsustainable for everyone else. There is a reason why Warren is now accepting super pac money now, and for the desperation on the debate stage. I can imagine Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg running out of money pretty soon.

Bloomberg can just buy the primaries to a certain extent, whatever his other weaknesses.

yeah biden must be struggling for cash atm, warren and pete less so although i haven't heard about their latest finance situation for a while, but to play devils advocate this directly helps sanders as he's the only other candidate that doesn't have to worry about fundraising as he's in a very unique position with his small dollar donors. his giant volunteer base also help on that front. if the dnc are forced to accept bernie as the nominee at least as a consolation prize they know he will still be well funded even without bloomberg's cash, not that that would sway them but that could be a talking point pro bernie supporters use to put pressure on them. I think im just having a hard time deciding if the dnc will give it to bloomberg if there is no majority but bernie has a big lead over everyone else. especially if Boomerberg (how is this not a big meme yet if at all) has a lackluster super tuesday.

It feels like super tuesday will be the defining moment of this whole election cycle. the picture is still kind of murky until then, this will be reflected in the odds i think. im expecting a lot of volatility in the next few days leading up to it. the debate alone made bernie go from 1.9ish to 2.3 briefly before he shortened back to just under even money. bloomberg went from 4.7ish to around 6.0, and biden from 10.0ish to 8.0(might be off on that as he was shortening anyway due to favorable SC polls) pete shot out to 20.0 too.

 

[longway]

I think im just having a hard time deciding if the dnc will give it to bloomberg if there is no majority but bernie has a big lead over everyone else. especially if Boomerberg (how is this not a big meme yet if at all) has a lackluster super tuesday.

Given the current trajectory, Bernie would be a steal at even money at this stage, he is doing great, the only murkiness is whether or not the DNC will stiff him or not. You heard these guys on stage, each one said yeah, fuck voters, its kind of shocking to me that none voiced any reservations to going down that route.

This makes me hesitate in betting big on Bernie right now.

 

[longway]

This article confirms what we have been discussing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html

Interviews with dozens of Democratic Party officials, including 93 superdelegates, found overwhelming opposition to handing Mr. Sanders the nomination if he fell short of a majority of delegates.

If you read the article you will see that there some wild and fanciful ideas being bandied about, so maybe even Bloomberg would not get the nomination then, but I remember reading that the Bloomberg campaign is already buying super delegates.

I would not be surprised if the convention throws up something like a Bloomberg/Michelle ticket. If she wants to run of course.

 

[Joedaman55]

The Democrats will need to choose one of the top Democratic vote getters, denying the majority winner would be suicide by the party, you’d see a ton of voters leave the party as they’d feel there voices were ignored in the voting process.

I wouldn’t devalue Biden too much, he’s still probably the strongest out of this weak group of candidates. His minds slow but his policies are about right, reminds me a bit of Bob Dole when he won. He’ll prolly get a big win in South Carolina.

After Super Tuesday you’ll prolly see three candidates left: Bloomberg, Biden, and Sanders. Sanders is such a huge problem for the party because if he wins, socialism becomes the new face of the party (which it has been shifting since the emergence of AOC)and that is favorable in some places but unfavorable in a majority of states. Given this, the party can’t let him win or be caught cheating the voters, there’s going to have to be some sort of deal soon between moderates to avoid this political train wreck. Seeing how bad Democrat’s played the Trump impeachment, lol, you might see them not collude correctly and have Bernie take the nomination.

If Sanders wins, this will by far the craziest election cycle I’ve ever seen, far surpassing 2016 (everyone was shocked by Trump but it felt similar to the Reagan movement, don’t think I’ve seen a socialist movement this popular before in the United States). If Trump goes against Sanders, you’ll see a bigger loss than the Hilary defeat.

 

[Roads55]

so apparently the iowa democratic party have declared buttigieg the winner after the partial recanvas, but the associated press will not announce a winner siting possible errors.

 

[Roads55]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485023-sanders-zeroes-in-on-super-tuesday-states

so apparently out of the non billionaire candidates sanders has spent $16 million on super tuesday states, with klobuchar in 2nd at $3.5 million, biden has only spent $900k this week. that seems pretty low to me, biden etc must really be budgeting their funds pretty heavily. biden's relying on a boost in $ raised and polls after SC, but it seems like there might not be enough time for in to sink in properly before tuesday.

 

[Roads55]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/warren-super-tuesday-ad-118055

i guess the first article missed this

 

[rev0lver]

MSM predictably going with the spin that Biden's staging a comeback and Bernie might be done for. This, of course, despite the fact that Biden's polled ahead in SC in every poll for the past year, and Bernie is still heavily in the lead in super tuesday states.

There's some weird talking point going around MSNBC that SC is more representative of the core democratic party than the previous 3 states. SC is actually one of the least representative states in the country, while Nevada is one of the most representative, and was Bernie's biggest win yet.

 

[longway]

Well, my Biden SC bet cashed in nicely. I wish I had bet big of course, but his mental frailty make me very wary of backing him too much. This video, I think, is quite telling, not for the gaffe itself, but Biden's own reaction to it; he is getting frustrated with himself, and that's a not a good sign.



I have another 1u on Bernie winning California, which looks like a steal at -260. Not a big bet, but just making bread and butter wagers wherever I see some value.

 

[longway]

MSM predictably going with the spin that Biden's staging a comeback and Bernie might be done for. This, of course, despite the fact that Biden's polled ahead in SC in every poll for the past year, and Bernie is still heavily in the lead in super tuesday states.

There's some weird talking point going around MSNBC that SC is more representative of the core democratic party than the previous 3 states. SC is actually one of the least representative states in the country, while Nevada is one of the most representative, and was Bernie's biggest win yet.

I know what you mean. I am still holding off on reading this as a Biden comeback. FWIW the delusional libtard contingent of the boomer/ gen z cohort on my twitter feed seems to be coalescing around Biden, draining from Warren, as they have accepted she wont win. They hope he will choose a vagina as VP and that's all that seems to matter to them. Well that and stopping Bernie.

So, I guess I was off the mark when i thought the never bernie lot would coalesce to Bloomberg. Its incredible they would choose Biden though.

 

[TrueAscension]

Bernie CA is a lock

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Trump auto-win smashes Bernie if he smear campaigns Bernie's reputation by exposing the association with the pic below. Americans don't stand for that shit (I hope so anyways). Absolutely unrecoverable blow imo.

 

[rev0lver]

Trump auto-win smashes Bernie if he smear campaigns Bernie's reputation by exposing the association with the pic below. Americans don't stand for that shit (I hope so anyways). Absolutely unrecoverable blow imo.

Lol personally I'm actually friends with Sonicfox, who endorsed Bernie last night (I'm part of the competitive fighting game community). Don't underestimate their influence.

There's still that meme pic of the MAGA furry in the confederate flag fursuit tho

 

[longway]

Lol personally I'm actually friends with Sonicfox, who endorsed Bernie last night (I'm part of the competitive fighting game community). Don't underestimate their influence.

There's still that meme pic of the MAGA furry in the confederate flag fursuit tho

I understand all the words in your post and still have no idea what you said.

 

[longway]

I wouldnt be surprised if at least one of the democrat candidates contacts the corona virus.

 

[longway]

His CIA handlers informed Buttigieg to drop out.

 

[rev0lver]

His CIA handlers informed Buttigieg to drop out.

Most likely he cut a deal with Biden. Drop out and take a VP or high cabinet position. They recognized the crowd was hurting more than helping, and Bernie was bound to win at least a plurality on the current trajectory. This is them trying to see if Biden (maybe even Bloomberg) has enough second-choice voters among Buttigieg's base to overtake this.

 

[longway]

Most likely he cut a deal with Biden. Drop out and take a VP or high cabinet position. They recognized the crowd was hurting more than helping, and Bernie was bound to win at least a plurality on the current trajectory. This is them trying to see if Biden (maybe even Bloomberg) has enough second-choice voters among Buttigieg's base to overtake this.

Being tounge in cheek, but he would have had to get approval from his handlers on whether to accept or not. There no way a small town mayor got as far as he did on his own. This guy has been groomed for years. There is a machine behind this guy and it has been a very successful operation.

His persona is so manufactured i cant help thinking that his biggest fear is that people will find out he is actually straight.

Cant link the tweet, but its confirned the day before he got calls from biden and obama the day before he dropped out.

If it goes to a brokered convention they will shaft bernie. I think they will spring a special vp pick to try and ameliorate for the fallout.

Update - klobuchar out and endorsing biden. Warren will stay to act as spoiler. Corporate dems will not allow a left wing populist to disrupt the gravy train. They dont care about beating trump, just beating bernie. Lol.

Warren wants the vp spot and will make a big play for it. Everyone knows biden will not last long and be nothing more than a figurehead if he does win. So vp will be fought over.