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Lets see. They have already shown their hand in Iowa, cant see why they will be any different in NH.
Political Betting Thread
- Thread starter GearSolidMetal
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Yup but this isn't a caucus format. Bernie unarguably won the popular vote in Iowa and did a little bit better than his polling average. Iowa didn't manipulate any actual votes, just the way they were released and interpreted. That's a different ballgame, especially with things like exit polls existing too. If the DNC thinks they can hold off Bernie in Nevada and the south, they can concede a state he resoundingly won in 2016 and is widely expected to win again. Just not worth a bet at this point imo
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^ looks like you are right. But much closer than polling suggested.
And as you said klobucharge is taking away some of the momentum from bernie.
Lets see if warren drops out, or will she continue to be bernie's spoiler.
Interesting pairing klob/butti as p/vp.
Liberal elites have their id pol wet dream. Moderates satisfied, cia gets their man in the wh and bernie voters gets screwed as usual.
And as you said klobucharge is taking away some of the momentum from bernie.
Lets see if warren drops out, or will she continue to be bernie's spoiler.
Interesting pairing klob/butti as p/vp.
Liberal elites have their id pol wet dream. Moderates satisfied, cia gets their man in the wh and bernie voters gets screwed as usual.
Yeah, I was definitely wrong about the margin, but it seemed like Bernie would comfortably stay in the lead since results started trickling in.
Not sure if the klobmentum (tbh I like your use of Klobucharge better and hope the media runs with that) comes from Bernie supporters more than others. Biden and Warren also lost major ground in New Hampshire. There's a lot of crossover between the Pete+Amy camps too, and this could've actually screwed him out of a potential victory. Imo, the more the moderate votes get split, the better it is for Bernie Sanders.
We're now heading to Biden-favored states where moderate vote-splitting can be an even bigger issue for those candidates. And we're not even at the Bloomberg states yet. Though it's also possible that Pete+Biden might just start switching places in the results. Keep in mind that Pete's whole campaign strategy has been based around winning Iowa+NH, where he polled 10+ points ahead of his polling in virtually every other state, and he's still never averaged higher than 4th on a national level.
Imo this is a giant mess for the moderate vote share until one of them drops out. Yang dropping out last night could potentially give Bernie a couple points to edge a state like Nevada out, too (caucus format tho so we'll see)
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Yeah, when i wrote Bernie I mean Buttigieg.
The odds on Bloomberg are crazy now at +250, but perhaps the sentiment is right, national polling has him climbing and is now surpassed Warren! (I guess Bernie was right, chicks cant win elections). Somebody has to drop out soon. My guess is Biden and Klobuchar. I think Biden might hold on to super tuesday at most, for the sake of pride, and pledge his delegates to the leading moderate (most likely Bloomberg). Warren should also drop out, but she is a snake, and may well play spoiler to the bitter end.
Lucky for you, Buttigieg got Klobbered, or he might have pulled off the upset.
Its going to be a funny election. DNC shafts the progressive leftist in favour of the old white male billionaire. Its so telling, exposing what the DNC really is, in contrast to their rhetoric. Fake news will have no choice but to embarrass themselves even further by trying to spin this farce into something acceptable to the voting public.
Trump v Bloomberg lol. Trump will take the guy to the cleaners; I can see him goading Bloomberg into spunking $10 billion into the election and still losing, but why not? You only live once.
Its good though as then more and more people will see what things are really like.
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Trump is going through his sample period on linguistic kill shots to see which one sticks the best. Mini Mike is a good one though because Bloomberg is small and the first thing I think of when someone is called “mini” is my sibling. This subconsciously makes me think would I want my little brother to be president.
Lol the good news for Bloomberg is that he doesn’t see you as a threat unless he’s making up nicknames for you. It’s one of the reasons he’s attacked Biden so hard. You’ll start to see Bloomberg numbers fall pretty soon.
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Dnc intimately involved in app.
https://news.yahoo.com/shadow-inc-i...FYcynIq8z853gpw9HkvUPCAsFzULA0wiYbMozy77D4ldG
While disappointing from a disappointing from a betting perspective, its good to know that unlike the dnc, the nh dems are not venal and corrupt.
https://news.yahoo.com/shadow-inc-i...FYcynIq8z853gpw9HkvUPCAsFzULA0wiYbMozy77D4ldG
While disappointing from a disappointing from a betting perspective, its good to know that unlike the dnc, the nh dems are not venal and corrupt.
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Lol I don't think Bloomberg numbers are going to fall because Trump cyberbullied him. Tbh when it comes to trash talk, Bloomberg can sorta kill Trump. Politically-experienced businessman who's far more successful and has much more money than Trump. That would get to Trump in a bigger way than what anyone else can do.
Bloomberg's numbers are gonna start falling because people are finally vetting him. His racial history makes Pete Buttigieg look like a Selma marcher. His economic platforms have been virtually no different than the establishment republican platform of the past 20 years. The progressive left is gonna have a bigger field day with him than the Trump camp.
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Bloomberg
Looks like Bloomberg's really getting killed in the oppo now. We'll see if a bigger battle plays out between people saying he's a garbage human being and people saying "doesn't matter because he can beat Trump!". I didn't give him much of a shot at the nomination before, but I actually think his chances are worse moving forward, the more people learn about him. I think his strategy might've worked 20 years ago, but there's a lower ceiling when you have ever-increasing numbers of people getting their news/info from more than TV and newspapers.
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You think his chances are worse now that Bernie is talking about him, he’s on TV everywhere, he’s about to be in his first debate, and rumors are swirling that he will have Hillary or another big name Dem as his running mate? Interesting. He was 100:1 when I started on about Bloomberg. What is he now?
I do. Should rephrase that a little though. I don't think his chances became worse between his initial campaign announcement and now. I just personally became more confident in his failure the more I've seen his rise, after being already very confident to start with. People learning about Bloomberg beyond TV ads is bad for him. Unless the debate moderators this week are blatantly trying to carry him, he could see a worse response than anyone has in this race so far.
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Lol, we’ve already seen it happen with previous candidates in 2016 and 2020. Once Trump gets a linguistic kill shot to stick people’s numbers start to fall a bunch.
You’re correct on the Bloomberg red flags though, he does have some big ones that most people aren’t aware of. Now that he is getting momentum, people will start showing those non-stop. I doubt he’ll be able to win certain pockets of the country to get him the nomination.
I still have Biden as a favorite as he’s got the 15% mark in the big states. I think the race will soon be down to 4 after Nevada (Bloomberg, Biden, Pete, and Bernie). I was very shocked Bernie didn’t win NH by more but his number in the south are better than what I was estimating, especially in Texas.
I don't think "mini mike" is a linguistic kill shot when it sounds like a UFC nickname coming from an overweight, unattractive man. There's plenty to attack him on as there was with Hillary (who was already widely disliked), but unlike Hillary he'd be trying to attack Bloomberg for just being a sharper, more successful version of himself.
Bernie's numbers seem to be rising all around. I think if Bernie wins Nevada and Biden doesn't at least put up a decent performance (remember Biden was tied or leading in NV up till a couple weeks ago) his campaign might be done. Bernie can ride his momentum into SC, and Biden's support in the south will split between Bernie and Bloomberg come Super Tuesday. Judging by polling and performance, it looks like Bernie and Bloomberg could BOTH come out ahead of Biden.
This makes me interested in how long it takes till the DNC pressures Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar to drop out. Their enemy is winning and they're trying to throw their support behind multiple people who, as much as they'd like it to, do not in fact combine their percentages into a single super-candidate who beats Bernie Sanders.
Bloomberg got eviscerated last night. He came out looking worse than my already-low expectations.
The most shocking thing though, which isn't being talked about enough, is how everyone on the stage except Bernie (including Warren) said they're open to round 2 convention voting choosing the nominee. That's pretty scary, and the dems could be truly screwing themselves over if they pick someone who didn't win among the populace. I don't think they realize how bad that looks outside their own bubble.
The most shocking thing though, which isn't being talked about enough, is how everyone on the stage except Bernie (including Warren) said they're open to round 2 convention voting choosing the nominee. That's pretty scary, and the dems could be truly screwing themselves over if they pick someone who didn't win among the populace. I don't think they realize how bad that looks outside their own bubble.
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Good polling for Trump post-shampeachment, now approval at highest ever levels in rcp average at 46% and gallup and emerson showing net positive approvals, which is looking fantastic for my double max bet on trump relelection at plus money.
He walked them into the shampeachment ravine, and shown indies these guys are nuts. This will drive turnout for him, which is crucial in winning those close swing states.
Meanwhile the dim primary clown car is on fire and headed into a canyon called twisted convention, while a billionaire makes a mockery of their primary process by buying his way into it making sure they cant change course.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
He walked them into the shampeachment ravine, and shown indies these guys are nuts. This will drive turnout for him, which is crucial in winning those close swing states.
Meanwhile the dim primary clown car is on fire and headed into a canyon called twisted convention, while a billionaire makes a mockery of their primary process by buying his way into it making sure they cant change course.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
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