Political Betting Thread

Lol as is common, people are getting overexcited on the first results. Pete is still in rough shape to win it to the end especially with the 15% award rule in big number states like Texas, Missouri, Cali, etc. I’m sure bettors will start over betting Pete but Biden should still be the large favorite.

The Iowa results are still good news for moderates as I still think the nominee will be a moderate based on the number of votes I saw in Iowa. You’ll see a couple candidates drop out after NH and it’ll prolly be a four person race after SC.
 
rev0lver said:
I thought they'd be tied if results stayed the way they were? Maybe I'm wrong about that. This is such a weird ass process either way lol.

This is nothing official obviously, but someone put together a google doc of all the so-far identified errors from IDP's results, showing a ~4 SDE gain for Sanders.
Click to expand...




Buttigieg Leads Sanders in Iowa Delegates, 13-12, With One Outstanding

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

As for the errors, I'll wait to see how it shakes out. I'm also not clear if the SDE-> national delegate conversion depends on which SDEs a candidate got, or if it's a direct conversion.
 
Stranger_Foreigner said:
  • When 62% of precincts had reported, Buttigieg was in the lead.
  • When 71% of precincts had reported, Buttigieg was in the lead.
  • When 75% of precincts had reported, Buttigieg was in the lead.
  • When 86% of precincts had reported, Buttigieg was in the lead.
  • When 97% of precincts had reported, Buttigieg was in the lead.
  • Now that 100% of precincts have reported, Buttigieg is in the lead.
There was no point at which Sanders was in the lead.

Buttigieg was polling a distant third pre-Iowa. Winning Iowa for him meant that he beat expectations in a major way. Releasing the spiked DMR poll would have only solidified that, since he was third in that poll. Then he wisely seized the moment on caucus night with the "victorious" line. Notice the big polling bounce he has experienced as a result.

OTOH, Sanders was polling in first pre-Iowa. All indications are he finished a close second. He basically met expectations, so he's not getting a bounce in polling. He'll get a fundraising bounce because of the conspiracy theories.

Biden was polling in 2nd pre-Iowa. He finished a distant 4th. His polling has dropped off a cliff post-Iowa. Again, expectations are crucial. People want to vote for the winner and don't like to vote for the loser. Sad but true.
Click to expand...

From 0-85% they were front loading Creepy favourable results, even though they had the satellite caucus results that were favourable to Sanders before the main caucus.

Between 85% to 97% Sanders caught up substantially. They posted 100% at a time it was very convenient for Mayor Creep, just before he started his town hall, and they knew the results contained errors and posted them anyway.

Here someone has put the errors in a spreadsheet, where once corrected would give victory to sanders.



A visualisation of the errors.



Errors made show a clear bias towards Creep and against sanders.

Don't get me wrong, I am glad they cheated, as it means I will win my bet, but anyone wagering should know they are cheating.

Ah I see someone has already posted this spreadsheet, sorry i did not see it.
 
Last edited:
Joedaman55 said:
lol, right, after one caucus who has a giant white voting base win a state who has less delegates than Puerto Rico. We’ll see what things look like in a month.
Click to expand...

Biden could actually be done. RCP averages slightly favor Biden in a few states, but he's polling in tight races or losing almost every state through Super Tuesday. 538 now has him losing every state through Super Tuesday except for Alabama.

His turnout in Iowa is pitiful for being a year-long frontrunner. IMO he needs a big performance in SC and needs to win Nevada to have a chance. I don't know what Biden's comeback factor is if Pete has momentum as the alternative to Sanders.

I'm also of the belief that Iowa isn't everything, but I can't think of any candidate in history who won their primary while starting out 4th after leading the pack through most of the race. Come-from-behind victories only seem to happen for lesser-known candidates with a high ceiling. Early frontrunners who underperform early states don't recover.
 
Last edited:
New hampshire has very level headed people, just look at the numbers says biden <45>
 
Biden going after sanders/pete
Sanders/Klobuchar going after pete,
Pete/klob going after bernie,
Warren going after ?
Steyer allying with bernie,
Yang says it's nice to be back, and we might hear something else from him in 20 minutes.
 
Ive put 1u on creepy ratboy to win NH at +230.

Malarkey or not there was loads of value on 'field' for the iowa farce, and my 3u was the right play.

Nevada is a caucus, and they wont get away with cheating in a caucus a second time, the democrats will have to cheat in NH to try and blunt bernie's momentum early. No matter how dodgy it looks, as nevada will look 10x worse.

I'm liking bernie at -200 for the nevada caucus, but have not been ablevget myself to pull the trigger yet. Need to understand the demographics ofvthe state, but my impression is that it is racially diverse enough, with alot of latinos, to favour bernie, even though v little polling there.

Biden even money for SC isnt bad at all. But its Biden after all, god knows what kind of malarkey he would have gotten upto by the time SC rolls around. I think i would risk a unit on that line though.
 
rev0lver said:
Biden could actually be done. RCP averages slightly favor Biden in a few states, but he's polling in tight races or losing almost every state through Super Tuesday. 538 now has him losing every state through Super Tuesday except for Alabama.

His turnout in Iowa is pitiful for being a year-long frontrunner. IMO he needs a big performance in SC and needs to win Nevada to have a chance. I don't know what Biden's comeback factor is if Pete has momentum as the alternative to Sanders.

I'm also of the belief that Iowa isn't everything, but I can't think of any candidate in history who won their primary while starting out 4th after leading the pack through most of the race. Come-from-behind victories only seem to happen for lesser-known candidates with a high ceiling. Early frontrunners who underperform early states don't recover.
Click to expand...

He’ll win most of the south. I don’t think there’s a Democratic candidate that reasonates with them as well. What candidate do you speaks best to the blue collar workers?
 
longway said:
Ive put 1u on creepy ratboy to win NH at +230.

Malarkey or not there was loads of value on 'field' for the iowa farce, and my 3u was the right play.

Nevada is a caucus, and they wont get away with cheating in a caucus a second time, the democrats will have to cheat in NH to try and blunt bernie's momentum early. No matter how dodgy it looks, as nevada will look 10x worse.

I'm liking bernie at -200 for the nevada caucus, but have not been ablevget myself to pull the trigger yet. Need to understand the demographics ofvthe state, but my impression is that it is racially diverse enough, with alot of latinos, to favour bernie, even though v little polling there.

Biden even money for SC isnt bad at all. But its Biden after all, god knows what kind of malarkey he would have gotten upto by the time SC rolls around. I think i would risk a unit on that line though.
Click to expand...


Biden even in SC is a steal.
 
longway said:
Ive put 1u on creepy ratboy to win NH at +230.

Malarkey or not there was loads of value on 'field' for the iowa farce, and my 3u was the right play.

Nevada is a caucus, and they wont get away with cheating in a caucus a second time, the democrats will have to cheat in NH to try and blunt bernie's momentum early. No matter how dodgy it looks, as nevada will look 10x worse.

I'm liking bernie at -200 for the nevada caucus, but have not been ablevget myself to pull the trigger yet. Need to understand the demographics ofvthe state, but my impression is that it is racially diverse enough, with alot of latinos, to favour bernie, even though v little polling there.

Biden even money for SC isnt bad at all. But its Biden after all, god knows what kind of malarkey he would have gotten upto by the time SC rolls around. I think i would risk a unit on that line though.
Click to expand...

Regarding Nevada, Hillary won it last time, putting Bernie as that big of a favorite as it was moderate last election seems a bit risky.
 
Joedaman55 said:
Regarding Nevada, Hillary won it last time, putting Bernie as that big of a favorite as it was moderate last election seems a bit risky.
Click to expand...

Bernie did well with minority groups and service workers in iowa, which i imagine is a deep well for him to draw on in nevada. He also has good organisation and enthusiastic volunteers.

Biden's ground game is terrible, cant see who else would win there.

Having said all that, still havent convinced myself to pull the trigger. If i do, it will be a 3-5u play.
 
longway said:
Bernie did well with minority groups and service workers in iowa, which i imagine is a deep well for him to draw on in nevada. He also has good organisation and enthusiastic volunteers.

Biden's ground game is terrible, cant see who else would win there.

Having said all that, still havent convinced myself to pull the trigger. If i do, it will be a 3-5u play.
Click to expand...

You’re correct about all that although I don’t think Bernie does that well with minorities. I think I remember Nevada shifting pretty liberal on their policies lately too. The only one who gives him a challenge is Biden, this one is a tough call, good luck.
 
Joedaman55 said:
You’re correct about all that although I don’t think Bernie does that well with minorities. I think I remember Nevada shifting pretty liberal on their policies lately too. The only one who gives him a challenge is Biden, this one is a tough call, good luck.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I dont think I will do it. If there is any play to make it is 'field' over Bernie, depending on the odds. Too many scenarios present themselves after the 1st round.
 
Joedaman55 said:
You’re correct about all that although I don’t think Bernie does that well with minorities. I think I remember Nevada shifting pretty liberal on their policies lately too. The only one who gives him a challenge is Biden, this one is a tough call, good luck.
Click to expand...

Bernie does have strong numbers with minorities. I believe he does the best among hispanics and has closed the gap a bit with black support. Biden's Obama ties can only carry so much with that, the more people learn about the candidates. It is true though that black democrats as a whole can be a bit more conservative on some (non-racial) social issues, but Bernie's working class appeal and civil rights history can overcome that.

I'd also argue to your other point that Bernie has the best appeal among blue-collar workers, at least when they're educated about the candidates. The historic sentiment there has always been about a candidate's personality, religious views, and views on things like LGBT issues. But economic+healthcare issues might really be the biggest appeal to them. Bernie did the best by far among non-college-educated and lower-income voters in Iowa, and that's probably the best indicator your can have for the blue-collar voter.

Bernie's been surging a bit in southern states. He's been polling within single digits from Biden in SC, whereas he was 20+ points down previously. If you are to believe the case for momentum, a loss for Biden in Nevada after an expected poor performance in NH can either close the gap in SC or make it close enough to where Biden's on shaky ground heading to Super Tuesday. I absolutely think Biden will win some southern states, but his prospects look grim if he wins between 0-1 states before March and does nothing in his media appearances to spark a comeback.
 
Little side note. As a Bernie supporter, I'm sort of enjoying this "Klobmentum". She's clearly not going to win. But another wrench thrown into the "moderate" mix just takes more votes away from Biden/Buttigieg. Seems like she's actually screwing up Buttigieg's momentum in NH.
 
rev0lver said:
Little side note. As a Bernie supporter, I'm sort of enjoying this "Klobmentum". She's clearly not going to win. But another wrench thrown into the "moderate" mix just takes more votes away from Biden/Buttigieg. Seems like she's actually screwing up Buttigieg's momentum in NH.
Click to expand...

I feel convinced enough that the democracts will pull a fast one in NH that I have bet 1u on Buttigieg. AFAICS the official Iowa winner is Buttigieg, but I cant log onto 5D to find out due to workplace wifi restrictions. Anyone know if they have paid out yet or not?
 
Last edited:
longway said:
I feel convinced enough that the democracts will pull a fast one in NH that I have bet 1u on Buttigieg.
Click to expand...

I actually think Bernie is safer than his own polling averages in NH. It'd have to take some actual blatant vote manipulation to give it to Pete.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,038
Messages
55,463,341
Members
174,786
Latest member
JoyceOuthw

Share this page

Back
Top