Political Betting Thread

^ being conservative, and its still a longway© to the election. Its why i have 10u on trump now and expect to have at least another 10u.
 

Dave Henderson said:
hah hah hah ...

Are you going to bet on this guy? Last line I saw was a 20 to 1 underdog or something?
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If he's the Democratic nominee, I win about $25,000.

If he becomes the Democratic nominee, I will bet on him to beat Trump.
 
@Joedaman55

Just remembered that Adams has been bullish on Gabbard's chances. I think that's insane.
 
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Kamala Harris now must resort to standing around outside passing out cookies.

 
I think its safe to say that bloomberg lacks the common touch.

 
waiguoren said:
I agree, but he has $51 billion.
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And hasnt enjoyed a penny of it. Unless he has a basement somewhere he tortures people to unwind.

My god, its going to be Biden. Sanders has a chance if he teams up with Warren, but the dnc hate him and warren is a coward, but this is her only hope of making it to the wh.

It remains to be seen if Buttigieg can msintain his momentum, the woke crowd is already after his blood and made the mistake of apologising to those loons.
 
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longway said:
And hasnt enjoyed a penny of it. Unless he has a basement somewhere he tortures people to unwind.

My god, its going to be Biden. Sanders has a chance if he teams up with Warren, but the dnc hate him and warren is a coward.

It remains to be seen if Buttigieg can msintain his momentum, the woke crowd is already after his blood and made the mistake of apologising to those loons.
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Our views are diverging dramatically here.

I think Biden is toast.

1) I think Bloomberg is going to damage him badly. I think most people who think Bloomberg can't make an impact are not understanding the scale of the operation Bloomberg intends to run. He hasn't done anything yet and he's already polling ahead of Klobuchar.

2) Buttigieg is cutting into the 65+ crowd quickly and seamlessly, and that crowd is the only reason Biden is leading nationally in the first place (note also that Biden's national lead is <9%)

3) Biden is already getting clobbered in IA/NH polling and if he finishes outside the top three in both he'll lose Nevada as well. Once the air comes out of the balloon he's done for.

4) As people start paying more attention, they will note Biden's cognitive decline. Each debate should have less candidates and thus more speaking time for Biden---up to this point there have been too many candidates on stage. More speaking time -> more gaffes. Also the pace of campaigning picks up rapidly starting in January and I don't think Biden is physically up to it.

5) Biden is low on cash and can't raise money quickly enough as his donor pool is narrow.

6) Major formerly pro-Biden media figures, respected by older voters, are now speaking out against him. Bill Maher just called on Biden to drop out. Joe Scarborough on his popular Boomer show 'Morning Joe' said the media has been grading Biden on a curve and that Biden can't complete a sentence anymore.
 
^ you hv thought this through better than me.

Counter points

Problem with buttigieg is that he is not registering with black voters.

Biden is hopeless i agree, but Bloomberg is not even on the ballot till super tuesday. Nevada and SC look pretty safe for Biden.

But you are right, come january, thats when voters will start paying attention and it could all change.

I rescind my prediction for biden, you are right, he should not even be in the race, its such a mess though.

If dnc decide to impeach then warren and sanders will be tied up gor moths, biden will also be damaged, so leaves buttigieg and bloomberg with a huge advanrage.

Strategically dnc hv to impeach, its their least worst scenario. Censure will allow sanders to continue csmpaigning.
 
longway said:
And hasnt enjoyed a penny of it. Unless he has a basement somewhere he tortures people to unwind.

My god, its going to be Biden. Sanders has a chance if he teams up with Warren, but the dnc hate him and warren is a coward, but this is her only hope of making it to the wh.

It remains to be seen if Buttigieg can msintain his momentum, the woke crowd is already after his blood and made the mistake of apologising to those loons.
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I forgot to mention a major one:


7) After a slow start, I'm seeing signs that Republicans in the Senate and Trump himself are preparing to train heavy fire on Biden over Burisma/Hunter as a counter-attack. Trump made it a key part of his last rally. This is going to go on for months and will force Democrats to focus on Biden's wastrel son and the idea that Biden himself might be corrupt. One could argue that this will cause Biden supporters to dig in their heels, but I think on net it will cause people to flee Biden.
 
longway said:
Problem with buttigieg is that he is not registering with black voters.
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Buttigieg is already outperforming Booker with black voters and is tied with Harris. Black voters don't know him yet. I believe that the average black voter is not paying attention yet but knows Biden and Sanders and maybe Warren.

longway said:
Strategically dnc hv to impeach, its their least worst scenario. Censure will allow sanders to continue csmpaigning.
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What's your analysis here? I haven't figured this one out.
 
waiguoren said:
I mean, why is it their least bad option?
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Maybe over thinking. If they censure, it makes them look silly and weak to voters and deepen fracture with progressives.

If impeach, gop will create a spectacle. Biden will be damaged and sanders and warren tied up. There is no good way to defend hunter. It provides a perfect backdrop for trump to make his case he is being unfairly targeted for exposing corruption.

But biden can be sacrificed and dnc will be happy to keep sanders tied up so he cant campaign. This allows bloomberg and buttigieg free to campaign.

So, which option better? I think both shit, but 2nd one helps stop sanderd, which must be their main goal now imo.

But that option may cost them the house in 2020, so that is another factor i forgot about The dnc are in deep doo doo.

Actually i can see censure causing the least amount of complications, apart from not hobbling sanders.
 
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longway said:
Maybe over thinking. If they censure, it makes them look silly and weak to voters and deepen fracture with progressives.

If impeach, gop will create a spectacle. Biden will be damaged and sanders and warren tied up. There is no good way to defend hunter. It provides a perfect backdrop for trump to make his case he is being unfairly targeted for exposing corruption.

But biden can be sacrificed and dnc will be happy to keep sanders tied up so he cant campaign. This allows bloomberg and buttigieg free to campaign.

So, which option better? I think both shit, but 2nd one helps stop sanderd, which must be their main goal now imo.

But that option may cost them the house in 2020, so that is another factor i forgot about The dnc are in deep doo doo.

Actually i can see censure causing the least amount of complications, apart from not hobbling sanders.
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Thanks for fleshing that out.

@Joedaman55

Scott Adams just said on his podcast, "I don't think there is any chance Trump will lose in the general election."
 
longway said:
^ you hv thought this through better than me.

Counter points

Problem with buttigieg is that he is not registering with black voters.

Biden is hopeless i agree, but Bloomberg is not even on the ballot till super tuesday. Nevada and SC look pretty safe for Biden.

But you are right, come january, thats when voters will start paying attention and it could all change.

I rescind my prediction for biden, you are right, he should not even be in the race, its such a mess though.

If dnc decide to impeach then warren and sanders will be tied up gor moths, biden will also be damaged, so leaves buttigieg and bloomberg with a huge advanrage.

Strategically dnc hv to impeach, its their least worst scenario. Censure will allow sanders to continue csmpaigning.
Click to expand...


lol buttigieg needs to grovel to minorities more to get them to like him....what a clown world haha. That's why i can't take politics these days very seriously it's just a bunch of fake groveling. Almost every group these days thinks they are victims and needs to be told how important and special they are.....
 
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