Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Bloomberg dons his red nose and joins the clown convention.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50355758

On this news decided to add 3u to trump being next prrsident at about +145. Close to 10u deep on this, including 1.2u on him winning the popular vote this time as well at +700

 

[waiguoren]

The race is shaping up in line with my expectations. I think Nate Silver is wrong to be so skeptical of Bloomberg, who I think will gain enough support to seriously harm Biden. I think I'm likely to profit here.



=================
My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

 

[waiguoren]

 

[waiguoren]

@Joedaman55

Your guy Scott Adams disclosed that he has been betting on PredictIt. He has two open bets on the Democratic nomination. The first is that Kamala Harris will be the nominee. The second is that the Democratic nominee will be a woman. Starts around seven minutes.

 

[waiguoren]

@Joedaman55

Your guy Scott Adams disclosed that he has been betting on PredictIt. He has two open bets on the Democratic nomination. The first is that Kamala Harris will be the nominee. The second is that the Democratic nominee will be a woman. Starts around seven minutes.

Oops, I meant two minutes.

 

[waiguoren]

@Joedaman55

Adams also had predicted that Bloomberg would not join the field. In the video above he admits his prediction was wrong. He can't seem to understand Bloomberg's thinking (Adams believes Bloomberg has no chance).

 

[Joedaman55]

@Joedaman55

Adams also had predicted that Bloomberg would not join the field. In the video above he admits his prediction was wrong. He can't seem to understand Bloomberg's thinking (Adams believes Bloomberg has no chance).

Adams bet Kamala really early, before the first debate I think. That might have been when he bet on a woman nominee too but that could have been when Warren gained steam. He knowingly criticized Kamala and states her not having much of a chance yet doesn’t change his prediction so he looks committed to his picks. He’s also been showing a lot of confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance regarding his Harris and Biden analysis (he’s been off a lot here).

Bloomberg entering this late makes no logical sense but Adams fails to realize that Trump triggers irrationality in people and makes them do really dumb things to try and get back at (I.e dem impeachment, Warren blood test, rubio debate tactic change, and a ton of others). Trump is incredible strategic about this and my guess about Bloomberg running is more about the Democrats trying to steer attention away from the impeachment embarrassment. I don’t think he’s entering to win but to redirect attention. Him entering doesn’t change my current prediction of Biden winning the nomination.

 

[rev0lver]

I also strongly believe Bloomberg has no chance. All I can see him doing is taking a few votes away from Biden.

I don't think Harris was a poor early pick. Her name's been floated around as a strong 2020 contender since the 2016 election. If you asked me to bet on someone a year ago, I probably would've bet on her. Before the primary season picked up, Biden and Sanders running was up in the air, Buttigieg was virtually unknown, and Warren running was somewhat unexpected.

 

[rev0lver]

Warren's polling numbers dropping is starting to become pretty clear. I wasn't expecting this when the heart attack happened, but if trends continue, Sanders could surge to the front. Another national poll came out today with Sanders 6 points over Warren.

 

[longway]

Bloomberg entering this late makes no logical sense

While you cant discount a guy who has billions at his disposal, he cant really expect to take Biden's place unless he undermines him. Its not as if biden voters are unhappy. I dont think he would do it directly, but through media outlets who will focus on biden's clear mental and physical decline. But its risky and could put bernie in the lead. Then he would have to attack bernie too, which will alienate the progressives even more, and create a bigger mess.

Ive heard his entry is not so much to secure the nomination but skirt campaign financing laws so he can launch an unlimited anti trump ad blitz.

The good news in all this is that it is likely that his entry into this masssive clusterfcuk of a primary process will make it fubar and clear the way for trump to win easily in 2020. But, depends on bloomberg's skillz. Lets see what he's got.

 

[longway]

Him entering doesn’t change my current prediction of Biden winning the nomination.

I agree, as things stand biden should win. But he is unbettable as his mental and physical health is too fragile to rely on.

 

[longway]

@Joedaman55

Your guy Scott Adams disclosed that he has been betting on PredictIt. He has two open bets on the Democratic nomination. The first is that Kamala Harris will be the nominee. The second is that the Democratic nominee will be a woman. Starts around seven minutes.

I think the dnc wanted harris or warren, so they could play the vagina card in the ge. Ie trump the big bad chauvanist taken down by a feisty woman. But you cant rely on a woman. Everyone who bets wmma knows that all too well.

Havibg said that, one of the best candidates the dnc has, male or female, is gabbard imo. Im not talking about policy, but in terms of temperament and character.

 

[Joedaman55]

While you cant discount a guy who has billions at his disposal, he cant really expect to take Biden's place unless he undermines him. Its not as if biden voters are unhappy. I dont think he would do it directly, but through media outlets who will focus on biden's clear mental and physical decline. But its risky and could put bernie in the lead. Then he would have to attack bernie too, which will alienate the progressives even more, and create a bigger mess.

Ive heard his entry is not so much to secure the nomination but skirt campaign financing laws so he can launch an unlimited anti trump ad blitz.

The good news in all this is that it is likely that his entry into this masssive clusterfcuk of a primary process will make it fubar and clear the way for trump to win easily in 2020. But, depends on bloomberg's skillz. Lets see what he's got.

He’s in the race too late and he might have some recognition with some, the mass audience of voters have no clue who he is. I could some him pulling some caucus numbers but having no shit in primary’s.

I think many people are overrating his impact on the race.

 

[Joedaman55]

I agree, as things stand biden should win. But he is unbettable as his mental and physical health is too fragile to rely on.

Depends on Biden’s odds, there’s no voter that appeals to the African American voters like Biden. Based on South Carolina polls, I have him 50/50 at worst. He could do something dumb but that’s not having a large effect in some areas. I think Biden’s already hit his lowest value barring a stroke or something serious medically.

 

[rev0lver]

Havibg said that, one of the best candidates the dnc has, male or female, is gabbard imo. Im not talking about policy, but in terms of temperament and character.

While I don't think Gabbard is the best candidate, I think it's funny that the democratic establishment constantly talks about moving toward the center and appealing to right-wingers, then decries Gabbard's appeal among Trump voters as a negative.

 

[rev0lver]

Depends on Biden’s odds, there’s no voter that appeals to the African American voters like Biden. Based on South Carolina polls, I have him 50/50 at worst. He could do something dumb but that’s not having a large effect in some areas. I think Biden’s already hit his lowest value barring a stroke or something serious medically.

I think if the MSM really decides to turn on Biden, which has somewhat started to happen, their influence can really pull his numbers down. He's had the benefit of MSM friendliness since he announced his campaign.

 

[waiguoren]

Ive heard his entry is not so much to secure the nomination but skirt campaign financing laws so he can launch an unlimited anti trump ad blitz.

That doesn't seem to make sense. Couldn't he just set up his own Super PAC?

I agree, as things stand biden should win. But he is unbettable as his mental and physical health is too fragile to rely on.

Are you or @Joedaman55 doing sig/AV bets on this? I'm very confident it won't be Biden.

I think many people are overrating his impact on the race.

What's your estimate of his peak RCP national polling average? I'll go with 7.0%, which is definitely enough to make a serious impact.

 

[waiguoren]

Booker hanging on by a thread. IIRC he has 0/4 qualifying polls for the December debate and I think he only has about 17 days to make it. I'd bet he won't make the debate stage.

 

[waiguoren]

If Quinnipiac is correct, Elizabeth Warren literally lost half of her support in the last month. Amazing. There is no candidate in the field I have misread worse than her. I missed her rise, prematurely predicted her fall, then pseudo-hedged on her near her peak.

 

[longway]

Ive decided to put 1u on trump not being impeached. I think this line has value at +3++.

The reasons being impeachment hearing have been a dud, not really moving the needle on natiinwide sentiment. I dont think it plays well in dnc swing seats. Passing on to senate will allow trump to dictate the process. Can you imagine how it would look when hunter has to testify?

And trump knows how to put on a show.

Its not a big bet as i might be reading this all wrong. Even schiff has said he wants to ask hus constituents, wtf? If he is having second thoughts then there is something going awry.