Political Betting Thread

[longway]

If Quinnipiac is correct, Elizabeth Warren literally lost half of her support in the last month. Amazing. There is no candidate in the field I have misread worse than her. I missed her rise, prematurely predicted her fall, then pseudo-hedged on her near her peak.

For me just the opposite. She has been my cash cow, bless her.

I can understand betting her, as not long ago she looked unstoppable, but shortly after she released her m4a plan i realised she was a loser. A serious misstep, and now she is talking about reparations. Bad juju all round.

 

[longway]

That doesn't seem to make sense. Couldn't he just set up his own Super PAC?

Its just something i heard floated, not really looked at it much. Bloomberg jumping in is an odd move. Maybe he is heeding the call of the dnc elite and pundit class, the base seems ok with their choices, i dont think they want yet another guy.

Are you or @Joedaman55 doing sig/AV bets on this? I'm very confident it won't be Biden.

Ive gone onto betfair with the intention of betting him a couple of times. Rationally, his line has value imo, but on an irrational level i just cant bet on him. I dont know why. I rationlise it as health concerns.

 

[waiguoren]

Ive gone onto betfair with the intention of betting him a couple of times. Rationally, his line has value imo, but on an irrational level i just cant bet on him. I dont know why. I rationlise it as health concerns.

What are your current positions?

Bloomberg jumping in is an odd move.

Seems pretty clear he thinks Biden is weak, thinks highly of his own ability, and realizes he won't live much longer (YOLO).

What's your best estimate for his peak RCP average?

 

[rev0lver]

Booker hanging on by a thread. IIRC he has 0/4 qualifying polls for the December debate and I think he only has about 17 days to make it. I'd bet he won't make the debate stage.

December debate race is gonna be interesting, I haven't even looked at this. You need 4%+ in 4 or more approved nationa/early state polls, or 6%+ in 2 or more early state polls. Looking at RCP he has virtually no chance here. Gabbard may be holding on by a thread, too. I believe Yang has now qualified for the December debate, but I'm not seeing an announcement of that.

This is a joke though. The Iowa caucuses will be less than 2 months from the December debate. There's no reason we should have 6-8 people still on stage. Tom Steyer has hit the polling qualifiers (though not the donor qualifiers) and he is definitely not going to win the primary. Klobuchar has a better shot than him, but should not be wasting airtime when she's still so far behind the top candidates. There are 4 choices and the DNC should be focusing on them so people can actually make a decision.

I also just realized Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, Williamson, and Delaney are still technically running for president. What a joke and what a waste of money.

 

[waiguoren]

December debate race is gonna be interesting, I haven't even looked at this. You need 4%+ in 4 or more approved nationa/early state polls, or 6%+ in 2 or more early state polls. Looking at RCP he has virtually no chance here. Gabbard may be holding on by a thread, too. I believe Yang has now qualified for the December debate, but I'm not seeing an announcement of that.

This is a joke though. The Iowa caucuses will be less than 2 months from the December debate. There's no reason we should have 6-8 people still on stage. Tom Steyer has hit the polling qualifiers (though not the donor qualifiers) and he is definitely not going to win the primary. Klobuchar has a better shot than him, but should not be wasting airtime when she's still so far behind the top candidates. There are 4 choices and the DNC should be focusing on them so people can actually make a decision.

I also just realized Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, Williamson, and Delaney are still technically running for president. What a joke and what a waste of money.

I'm interested to see if Steyer can make it in December.

Biden/Buttigieg/Sanders/Harris/Warren/Klobuchar/Yang

I think that's about enough on the stage for me. I'd like to see more culling for January.

 

[rev0lver]

I'm interested to see if Steyer can make it in December.

Biden/Buttigieg/Sanders/Harris/Warren/Klobuchar/Yang

I think that's about enough on the stage for me. I'd like to see more culling for January.

I'm having trouble finding where exactly the candidates stand in number of individual donations. Supposedly Steyer had 166,000 individual donors by October 1. I'm a little bit skeptical of him pulling 35,000 more within 2 months, considering his campaign is largely self-funded and he didn't even outraise Bennet or Bullock in q3.

Gabbard is possible though. She needs one more qualifying poll and 1,000 more individual donors. Not a sure thing, but I'd call that feasible.

 

[Roads55]

current thoughts:
Bloomberg is not entering to win, im almost positive of that, he's there to attack sanders/warren/trump not necessarily in that order. has he even made any type of public statement in person yet?

Biden: I think we will start to see his numbers drop a little, every debate and media showing more people lose faith ion him and rightfully so, completely agree with others here, in theory his line looks to have value but i just can't bring myself to bet him, surely this guy can't be the democrats knight in shining armor to beat trump? seriously biden is the best they can do?! i just can't see him getting over the line. the cracks are starting to show with him more broadly among the electorate, and i believe (iirc) he recently lost half his support in NH with over 65's which if that is reflected in other states could spell doom for him. in the short term he could benefit from warren declining and buttigieg's hype wearing off however. i can't bet on him (as of now) but concede there is a chance he gets it somehow..

Sanders has been going under the radar, his support seems to be cementing itself and his recent gains could be attributed to picking up some warren voters but i think more-so because of his rejuvenation and good debate performances since his heart attack. im building up a position on him atm, if warren bleeds more support he will gain the most i feel.

overall i have zero fucking clue who's gonna win this atm, every candidate has a long list of red flags and serious ones. been a good market to bet but i'll be glad when it's over.

 

[waiguoren]

has he even made any type of public statement in person yet

Yes.

Sanders has been going under the radar, his support seems to be cementing itself

The NH poll out today has something like 63% of Sanders supporters saying they have already made up their mind. It's almost 2x as much as Biden, who is the 2nd-best in that category. NH is not reflective of the nation though.



===========
My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

 

[longway]

What are your current positions?


Seems pretty clear he thinks Biden is weak, thinks highly of his own ability, and realizes he won't live much longer (YOLO).

What's your best estimate for his peak RCP average?

1u on buttigieg from a while back and 5u lay bet against warren which i took at +200. About 10u on trump to win general. Previously, i had other bets, but mainly 5u on warren which i cashed out at a profit of 3u before she peaked at +100.

Also 1u on trump not being impeached. This something i want to keep an eye as i think the dnc are getting cold feet, but not too confident yet.

If warren hits +600 to +700 i will cash out again and look to play lines as they change.

Yeah, maybe trying to read too much into it. I dont have a read on bloomberg, as i am not familiar with him, but if he wants to make a dent in biden he has to play dirty, and he needs a compelling core message. Otherwise, i cant see him getting much traction at this stage just with ad buys.

 

[edole]

Tulsi or bust for me.

The DNC has learned nothing from 2016.

 

[Dave Henderson]

The race is shaping up in line with my expectations. I think Nate Silver is wrong to be so skeptical of Bloomberg, who I think will gain enough support to seriously harm Biden. I think I'm likely to profit here.



=================
My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

Bloomburg is a psychotic globalist gun control tyrant who passed "stop and frisk" in New York and expanded so called "hate speech" laws to include calling someone an "illegal immigrant". The man has spent this life trying to nullify the 1st, 2nd and 4th amendments to the Constitution. The man is a power hungry demon - psychotic wanna be tyrant. Anyone who would vote for Bloomberg is really stupid or insane.

When anyone mentions his stop and frisk laws he passed in New York - he is done.

 

[waiguoren]

Bloomburg is a psychotic globalist gun control tyrant who passed "stop and frisk" in New York and expanded so called "hate speech" laws to include calling someone an "illegal immigrant". The man has spent this life trying to nullify the 1st, 2nd and 4th amendments to the Constitution. The man is a power hungry demon - psychotic wanna be tyrant. Anyone who would vote for Bloomberg is really stupid or insane.

When anyone mentions his stop and frisk laws he passed in New York - he is done.

I predict he will finish within the top six in the Democratic field. He's already a 3%er and hasn't even really started. I think he's very unlikely to win the nomination though and I've seen some lines that are overvaluing him imo.

 

[longway]

The dims are fcuked. There is no good end game for them in their impeachment coup, unless there is a major revelation coming. Trump is a maestro.

 

[waiguoren]

The dims are fcuked. There is no good end game for them in their impeachment coup, unless there is a major revelation coming. Trump is a maestro.

Buttigieg will beat Trump if he's the nominee. In this I am confident.

 

[longway]

Buttigieg will beat Trump if he's the nominee. In this I am confident.

Ultimately its not in trump's control. Voters gonna do what they do. But whatever is in his control he sets up beautifully and gets his opponents to do stupid things. He is an artist. Its amazing.

As things stand id put his line on re election at -200

 

[waiguoren]

Ultimately its not in trump's control. Voters gonna do what they do. But whatever is in his control he sets up beautifully. He is an artist. Its amazing.

Eh, I think he's way more vulnerable than he should be given the economy+incumbency. I think he's done a lot to make his re-election more difficult. However, I agree that he is very skilled at maneuvering out of bad situations and at MSM manipulation.

 

[longway]

Eh, I think he's way more vulnerable than he should be given the economy+incumbency. I think he's done a lot to make his re-election more difficult. However, I agree that he is very skilled at maneuvering out of bad situations and at MSM manipulation.

You are not accounting for having to operate in a toxic environment. He has to take damage to win, its not a fair fight, its a no holds barred street fight. No one gets to look good.

 

[Joedaman55]

I think if the MSM really decides to turn on Biden, which has somewhat started to happen, their influence can really pull his numbers down. He's had the benefit of MSM friendliness since he announced his campaign.

I agree but you have to have someone that appeals to that base that’s going to get them to vote. You can’t put someone in there they don’t like and expect them to vote for them. I don’t see that candidate and the Democrats can’t win without those voters.

 

[Joedaman55]

That doesn't seem to make sense. Couldn't he just set up his own Super PAC?



Are you or @Joedaman55 doing sig/AV bets on this? I'm very confident it won't be BidenWhat's your estimate of his peak RCP national polling average? I'll go with 7.0%, which is definitely enough to make a serious impact.

That doesn't seem to make sense. Couldn't he just set up his own Super PAC?



Are you or @Joedaman55 doing sig/AV bets on this? I'm very confident it won't be Biden.



What's your estimate of his peak RCP national polling average? I'll go with 7.0%, which is definitely enough to make a serious impact.

I see your thoughts about Biden based on your bets, we’ll see what happens pretty soon. No, I’m not doing AV/Sig bets, I get no value from that if I win or lose.

 

[Joedaman55]

Ultimately its not in trump's control. Voters gonna do what they do. But whatever is in his control he sets up beautifully and gets his opponents to do stupid things. He is an artist. Its amazing.

As things stand id put his line on re election at -200

-200 is a steal imo based on the potential candidates and the impeachment debacle. Similar to what Roads said, there are many red flags with each candidate and there is no good candidate in this field.