Political Betting Thread

I'm not a very political person but if you think Trump is smart enough to have set this up so democrats can scramble to impeach him (with good reason might I add), then you either have money that Trump wins the next election or you are a Trump supporter, either of which would influence that thought process.
 
Transcript released. How can it be anything other than a set-up?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Unclassified09.2019.pdf

This transcript makes Biden look bad. Here, he is boasting that he got the investigator fired by threatening to withhold money. Doing exactly what the dems accuse Trump of doing. a quid pro quo favour. BTW ignore the assertion at the start that Biden used his influence to help his son, I don't know if that is true, its the optics that are terrible.



then you either have money that Trump wins the next election or you are a Trump supporter

I do like Trump and will max bet his chances of re-election at the end of the dem primary process. I want to make sure its warren or Biden. I put 5U on him not being impeached just earlier, and given the contents of the transcript looks like I should have put more. If they continue with the impeachment farce they will have to investigate Biden as well, and there are huge cans of worms this will open up, and also distract from sober policy proposals and keep the dnc lunatic fringe at the front and centre; its a masterful move by Trump.

An example of one of the cans of worms is a letter by dem senators ensure Ukraine co-operates with Mueller or face loss of support if the dems came into power. He has gotten the dems to investigate themselves.

 
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Good I hope they investigate everyone. They’re all corrupt anyways.. and ya that includes your boy Trump
 
Good I hope they investigate everyone. They’re all corrupt anyways.. and ya that includes your boy Trump
He is the most investigated president in history, and they have found nothing, well unless nothing burgers count. But whatever, I welcome all this impeachment stuff, a lens does need to be shone, and it burns Trump up, so be it, but I don't think it will.
 
This transcript makes Trump look super guilty. I honestly thought they'd back out of releasing it last minute, or they'd find one phone call where nothing was discussed (since there were apparently multiple). If this is the most favorable piece of evidence for Trump that they picked out, it's going to be bad for him.

Yeah, this guy's probably getting impeached now. Impeachment's sitting at +110 still.
 
awesome, biden out to 5.3 on betfair for the dem nomination. I'll catch up with the trump shit tomorrow
 
Added: Elizabeth Warren to be Democratic nominee +123 $4268



Ugh. Had to make this hedge despite the poor odds. The events of the last few days make her almost a shoo-in. Biden is sure to fall off and possibly drop out before March. Elizabeth Warren is in prime position now and I don't see anyone stopping her.

Rooting for Buttigieg now, obviously.



My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

Anonymous Ukraine whistle blower has been identified.



lol! Stealing that.
 
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This transcript makes Trump look super guilty. I honestly thought they'd back out of releasing it last minute, or they'd find one phone call where nothing was discussed (since there were apparently multiple). If this is the most favorable piece of evidence for Trump that they picked out, it's going to be bad for him.

Yeah, this guy's probably getting impeached now. Impeachment's sitting at +110 still.

I don't know what in it makes him look guilty, let alone super guilty, but given that impeachment requires a 2/3 majority in the senate, those are bad odds.
 
I don't know what in it makes him look guilty, let alone super guilty, but given that impeachment requires a 2/3 majority in the senate, those are bad odds.

Impeachment requires a simple majority in the house. The senate process is for removal from office.
 
Impeachment requires a simple majority in the house. The senate process is for removal from office.

Thank you. It might be wise for people to learn about how the government works before placing wagers on the process of impeachment.
 
Impeachment requires a simple majority in the house. The senate process is for removal from office.
Thanks. I cashed out with a 0.7U loss. Should have read the small print. Classic mistake. It is just a symbolic impeachment, but the rules are congress votes for articles of impeachment, rather than real impeachment by conviction by senate. Still requires a lot of moderate Democrats who are sitting in swing states to join in on this nothing burger, but hard to predict given that Pelosi has come behind it.

Real odds are Trump to leave by the end of his first term is -434.
 
Thanks. I cashed out with a 0.7U loss. Should have read the small print. Classic mistake. It is just a symbolic impeachment, but the rules are congress votes for articles of impeachment, rather than real impeachment by conviction by senate. Still requires a lot of moderate Democrats who are sitting in swing states to join in on this nothing burger, but hard to predict given that Pelosi has come behind it.

Real odds are Trump to leave by the end of his first term is -434.

Lol glad I might've saved you. Yeah if I saw no-senate-conviction sitting at -140 I would've smashed that line with everything I own. There's practically no chance that would happen in this senate no matter what Trump's done. But I don't think a resignation is out of the question at all, either to avoid impeachment or to avoid losing in the general if it's looking that way next year. So I'm not sure I'd touch that right now.

Right now there seems to be enough for impeachment even without an explicit quid pro quo, and there's probably a lot more evidence to dig up. And if Pelosi's on board with that, I think there's a pretty good chance of it happening. Pelosi doesn't have a hint of a backbone, and she wouldn't be suddenly jumping on this side unless she thinks they'll get it done.
 
Lol glad I might've saved you. Yeah if I saw no-senate-conviction sitting at -140 I would've smashed that line with everything I own. There's practically no chance that would happen in this senate no matter what Trump's done. But I don't think a resignation is out of the question at all, either to avoid impeachment or to avoid losing in the general if it's looking that way next year. So I'm not sure I'd touch that right now.

Right now there seems to be enough for impeachment even without an explicit quid pro quo, and there's probably a lot more evidence to dig up. And if Pelosi's on board with that, I think there's a pretty good chance of it happening. Pelosi doesn't have a hint of a backbone, and she wouldn't be suddenly jumping on this side unless she thinks they'll get it done.

 
Lol glad I might've saved you. Yeah if I saw no-senate-conviction sitting at -140 I would've smashed that line with everything I own. There's practically no chance that would happen in this senate no matter what Trump's done. But I don't think a resignation is out of the question at all, either to avoid impeachment or to avoid losing in the general if it's looking that way next year. So I'm not sure I'd touch that right now.

Right now there seems to be enough for impeachment even without an explicit quid pro quo, and there's probably a lot more evidence to dig up. And if Pelosi's on board with that, I think there's a pretty good chance of it happening. Pelosi doesn't have a hint of a backbone, and she wouldn't be suddenly jumping on this side unless she thinks they'll get it done.

What specifically about the transcript makes trump look really guilty to you? I just finished reading it and i don't see any quid pro pro or anything that could be construed like that. ofc that doesn't mean that impeachment isn't out of the question but given how generally unpopular impeachment seems to be especially with swing voters makes me confused as to why the dems/pelosi did this. this could backfire horrendously on them. as for trump stepping down I don't see why he would to avoid impeachment if it's mostly a symbolic act if it does indeed happen?
one thing that this whole escapade has done (so far) is show very clearly imo that biden is not the man for the job to take on trump. he should 100% of already come out swinging about this whole situation taking on trump head on, but so far we've not heard much from him. if he can't stand up here to trump that's a big hit he's going to take with swing voters imo.
 
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Added: Elizabeth Warren to be Democratic nominee +123 $4268



Ugh. Had to make this hedge despite the poor odds
. The events of the last few days make her almost a shoo-in. Biden is sure to fall off and possibly drop out before March. Elizabeth Warren is in prime position now and I don't see anyone stopping her.

Rooting for Buttigieg now, obviously.



My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268



lol! Stealing that.

yeah good hedge i think. I'm on warren atm but largely missed the odds i wanted. missed 2.5 (+150) in the last couple days. time difference is very annoying being out of the US. what book was that at? BoL? I was just looking on dimes and dsi and was surprised to not find any lines unless im missing them, 2.23 isn't that bad imo, that could look like a pretty good price in a few weeks or less.
 
it's getting pretty close atm to see this being a 2 horse race between warren/biden but still a long way to go. buttigieg is good for a trade I think as he will be favorite over harris odds wise soon i think.
edit: why on earth is hillary @30.0 i have no clue, she was like 24.0 or something a week ago, easy lay bet there for a little extra profit.
 
All Hillary has to do at this point is come out with an actual personality instead of phoning it in, a 15 minute poignant speech about how she will get this country back on track (blah blah blah) and she will get the nod. 30:1 is insane.
 
yeah good hedge i think. I'm on warren atm but largely missed the odds i wanted. missed 2.5 (+150) in the last couple days. time difference is very annoying being out of the US. what book was that at? BoL? I was just looking on dimes and dsi and was surprised to not find any lines unless im missing them, 2.23 isn't that bad imo, that could look like a pretty good price in a few weeks or less.

Bookmaker

All Hillary has to do at this point is come out with an actual personality instead of phoning it in, a 15 minute poignant speech about how she will get this country back on track (blah blah blah) and she will get the nod. 30:1 is insane.

No way. There is little appetite for her this time, even among her supporters from last time. Elizabeth sucks up much of that support. She'll go nowhere if she announces. Even those who really prefer HRC have already seen her lose to Trump once and will look elsewhere.
 
All Hillary has to do at this point is come out with an actual personality instead of phoning it in, a 15 minute poignant speech about how she will get this country back on track (blah blah blah) and she will get the nod. 30:1 is insane.

I 100% agree.

However the chances of her developing a personality that will reverse her label as the most unpopular democratic candidate of all time, delivering a speech even the most gullible of all voters will believe is not simply a pack of lies is closer to 1000/1
I should of waited though she's 24/1 now lol. I honestly don't get it
 
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