Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

I think harris has a better chance of being the running mate for VP than the nominee itself. if biden or buttigieg wins then she could feasibly be top choice for both.

I'm still surprised warren is still being bet so much, she has not lost much momentum, although her price seems tentative to go lower at this point.
biden's odds showing the first signs of drifting. people starting to lose confidence in him i think. probably all that attention he got yesterday

 

[Joedaman55]

I think harris has a better chance of being the running mate for VP than the nominee itself. if biden or buttigieg wins then she could feasibly be top choice for both.

I'm still surprised warren is still being bet so much, she has not lost much momentum, although her price seems tentative to go lower at this point.
biden's odds showing the first signs of drifting. people starting to lose confidence in him i think. probably all that attention he got yesterday

I highly doubt she will be a VP as most candidates want a VP who doesn’t take the light off of them. That’s why most VP’s are far less charismatic than the actual candidate. Pence was way less charismatic than Trump, same with Biden and Obama, Bush/Cheaney.

The only time I didn’t see that was McCain/Palin but that was the worst run presidential campaign I’ve ever seen. The results showed that in the election.

 

[Roads55]

lmao, that was hillarious

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Man, anybody on Bernie, I just don't see it. He's playing the race card way, way too much this time around. It's cringe worthy at best.

My gal Kamala brought the heat today. Still think she's going to win the nomination

 

[waiguoren]

Man, anybody on Bernie, I just don't see it. He's playing the race card way, way too much this time around. It's cringe worthy at best.

My gal Kamala brought the heat today. Still think she's going to win the nomination

Interesting. We have at least two Harris believers in this thread.

Why do you think she'll get it?

 

[Joedaman55]

lmao, that was hillarious

Holy shit, I can’t stop laughing

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Interesting. We have at least two Harris believers in this thread.

Why do you think she'll get it?

I think she checks a lot of the boxes that the democratic primary voters will be looking for. She's shown she's willing to move to the left like they desire, she also seems to be a somewhat popular establishment type. Reminds me of Mrs. Clinton in that regard. Her being a, uhh, visible minority I guess is the term I'll go with (I forget her heritage) and a female can't hurt either.

And from the brief snippets I heard of her speaking today, she actually sounded like she had some real fire and passion. Regardless of my opinion on it, I could see how it would have fired people up (her inverting of the MAGA slogan).

 

[waiguoren]

I think she checks a lot of the boxes that the democratic primary voters will be looking for. She's shown she's willing to move to the left like they desire, she also seems to be a somewhat popular establishment type. Reminds me of Mrs. Clinton in that regard. Her being a, uhh, visible minority I guess is the term I'll go with (I forget her heritage) and a female can't hurt either.

And from the brief snippets I heard of her speaking today, she actually sounded like she had some real fire and passion. Regardless of my opinion on it, I could see how it would have fired people up (her inverting of the MAGA slogan).

I will say she's the one candidate who I think could screw me here. I believe Biden and Warren will fall off. I can imagine a lot of the Warren supporters switching to Harris. Let's be candid: a large part of the Democratic base is angry middle-aged women. I think a lot of those types will not go for Sanders (he wasn't sufficiently supportive of Clinton last time, or something) and will be shopping for a female candidate with a nice-looking C.V.

 

[waiguoren]

He's playing the race card way, way too much this time around.

What is this a reference to?

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

What is this a reference to?

Have you been listening to his speeches this go around? Parts of the one I heard from yesterday was him rambling on about black VS white income, and I just don't think this will be appealing to a lot of the people who voted for him last go around (many switched to trump, didn't they?). One bit that stuck out to me was him saying that a black woman only makes 61% of what a white male does. I just don't think that message is all that appealing when it comes from Bernie. Last go around he seemed a lot more policy focused.

Maybe I'm wrong but that's just my read on it

 

[rev0lver]

I think she checks a lot of the boxes that the democratic primary voters will be looking for. She's shown she's willing to move to the left like they desire, she also seems to be a somewhat popular establishment type. Reminds me of Mrs. Clinton in that regard. Her being a, uhh, visible minority I guess is the term I'll go with (I forget her heritage) and a female can't hurt either.

And from the brief snippets I heard of her speaking today, she actually sounded like she had some real fire and passion. Regardless of my opinion on it, I could see how it would have fired people up (her inverting of the MAGA slogan).

Totally disagree. I think she's a charismatic, generally good politician. But people notice when you flip positions in this day and age. Anything that reminds you of Clinton should tell you she's not a great choice. The reason people like Bernie develop so much support isn't just the policy proposals he lays out, but his absolute consistency and sincerity. While she will certainly catch some people, voters don't like politicians who play politics, and there's greater awareness of that now than there has ever been.

I know polls before the first debate even starts isn't a massively accurate indicator of what will happen, but Harris being stagnant and slipping in the polls should tell you something. If she can't win the Biden crowd outright, she has to play to a crowd that's very skeptical of accepting her, and I would not bet on that working.

 

[Roads55]

Buttigieg is in danger of becoming a laughing stock haha

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Totally disagree. I think she's a charismatic, generally good politician. But people notice when you flip positions in this day and age. Anything that reminds you of Clinton should tell you she's not a great choice. The reason people like Bernie develop so much support isn't just the policy proposals he lays out, but his absolute consistency and sincerity. While she will certainly catch some people, voters don't like politicians who play politics, and there's greater awareness of that now than there has ever been.

I know polls before the first debate even starts isn't a massively accurate indicator of what will happen, but Harris being stagnant and slipping in the polls should tell you something. If she can't win the Biden crowd outright, she has to play to a crowd that's very skeptical of accepting her, and I would not bet on that working.

Who are you favouring at this point? I get your view, and am too lazy to formulate a reasonable counter point haha

 

[rev0lver]

Who are you favouring at this point? I get your view, and am too lazy to formulate a reasonable counter point haha

Sanders. I think Biden will slip but I definitely don't discount a close vote that he edges out. I'm a big fan of Warren but I don't see her making enough gains to take over the Sanders camp, at least not yet. I see Harris, Pete, Beto, and Booker as being all in the same boat that might make it to Iowa's voting day but not much further.

We're definitely gonna have a clearer picture once this debate season picks up though. So I'm not placing any actual bets yet. (but I do have a $500 bet with my boss that Trump loses)

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Sanders. I think Biden will slip but I definitely don't discount a close vote that he edges out. I'm a big fan of Warren but I don't see her making enough gains to take over the Sanders camp, at least not yet. I see Harris, Pete, Beto, and Booker as being all in the same boat that might make it to Iowa's voting day but not much further.

We're definitely gonna have a clearer picture once this debate season picks up though. So I'm not placing any actual bets yet. (but I do have a $500 bet with my boss that Trump loses)

Ah I see. Fair enough. I'm looking forward to watching how this shit show is going to play out. I haven't got anything down yet either, I wouldn't say I'm terribly confident in my thoughts or anything. I do agree that I don't think it's Biden

 

[waiguoren]

Bookmaker odds update (Democratic nomination):

Joseph Biden +166
Peter Buttigieg: +458
Elizabeth Warren: +540
Bernard Sanders: +540
Kamala Harris: +680
Andrew Yang: +1903
Robert O'Rourke: +2553
....

My current bets:

• 2019 April 15--------Bernard Sanders to win the Democratic nomination $2439.02 +410
• 2019 May 19---------Peter Buttigieg to win the Democratic nomination $1818.18 +550

 

[Roads55]

Seems a clever idea here by the trump camp and getting people to think about what they want while democrats settle down for a long grueling nomination process, all the while with trump raising a lot of money:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/19/...-kick-off-message-opinion-jennings/index.html

 

[Roads55]

Bookmaker odds update (Democratic nomination):

Joseph Biden +166
Peter Buttigieg: +458
Elizabeth Warren: +540
Bernard Sanders: +540
Kamala Harris: +680
Andrew Yang: +1903
Robert O'Rourke: +2553
....

My outstanding bets:

• 2019 April 15 Bernard Sanders to win the Democratic nomination $2439.02 +410
• 2019 May 19 Peter Buttigieg to win the Democratic nomination $1818.18 +550

Comparing the prices with betfair:

I find the buttigieg price interesting, he's not had a good week, the difference in price seems a little out of the ordinary. wild speculation with no basis but i wonder if his price is being purposely lowered for the US market or certain customers.
warren is second fav atm (wrongly imo) but i think she is getting some of bernie's support and is anticipated to get more with how the debates are laid out this week. will be interesting to see how she fares and how the odds reflect that.
harris I think is still flying under the radar imo, i know the least about her out of the main candidates so can't comment too much on how she's doing.
bernie just seems like his campaign is just a bit meh atm, I don't really know why but i don't see him recovering while his odds just drift and drift. he needs a strong showing in the debates

Current prices on betfair are:

* biden 3.55 (+255) drifting from 3.4 last week
* warren 6.8 (+580) been stagnant for a week or so but shortened a good deal before that (can't remember odds, maybe 10.0 ish)
* harris 7.4 (+640) been slowly shortening this week
* buittigieg 8.2 (+720) drifted this week from 7.0
* sanders 8.4 (740) was 9.0-9.6ish last week after drifting continuously from being the favorite at 4.5-5.0 (iirc when he was at his shortest, could be off a little here, could of been a little lower)

total matched on all candidates £467,005

How much do you guys think is wagered on US books on politics at this stage of the nomination, is there much interest with us bettors? I'm keen to see how the US books odds compare with euro ones and exchanges.

I've yet to put any serious bets on atm just trading some swings with pretty small stakes to get into a good position for the debates, currently got:

* biden +£52
* warren -£227
* buttigieg -£10
* harris +£106
* bernie +£84
* beto -£178
* -£150 on hillary because free money
* and +£250 on the field

 

[waiguoren]

Weird, the odds you listed are significantly different from what I'm seeing at Betfair. Also, your bets are incomprehensible to me. What does "bernie +£84" mean?

The lay at Bookmaker is not public knowledge. I imagine this nomination is going to be similar to the Republicans last time in terms of total lay.

I think the claim that Buttigieg had a bad week is overblown. A bunch of screaming nutjobs yelled at him. He seemed to keep his cool, took some time off the trail and promised to investigate the shooting fully. I haven't seen any of the "opinion makers" criticize him for it yet, and I am skeptical that black voters are going to turn against him because of it.

 

[rev0lver]

I think the claim that Buttigieg had a bad week is overblown. A bunch of screaming nutjobs yelled at him. He seemed to keep his cool, took some time off the trail and promised to investigate the shooting fully. I haven't seen any of the "opinion makers" criticize him for it yet, and I am skeptical that black voters are going to turn against him because of it.

This week isn't the first time these issues have come to light, though. It's been going on for a couple months now.

I'm still extremely skeptical of Buttigieg's odds in general. He's a great speaker and I have little doubt he'll perform well in debates. But he has never crossed the 10% threshold in more than a small minority of polls. All he's seen is increased media attention. Even Harris has generally averaged slightly better numbers than him.

Bovada's showing me my favorite prop so far though of "How Many Times Will Someone Mispronounce Pete Buttigieg's Last Name During The June Democratic Debates?" (1.5 o/u)