Political Betting Thread

[Joedaman55]

I’m shocked people that Warren looked well, I just saw a bunch of incoherent rambling and talking about how she’s the greatest underdog ever and corporations are bad.

What did I miss that you guys saw differently?

 

[rev0lver]

Klobuchar had a bad night and is done imo.

Klobuchar was done as soon as she entered the race lol. But I think she just comes off as insanely unlikeable and everyone got to see it. Her platform doesn't even matter, she gets me about as excited as Ngannou vs Lewis.

 

[rev0lver]

I’m shocked people that Warren looked well, I just saw a bunch of incoherent rambling and talking about how she’s the greatest underdog ever and corporations are bad.

What did I miss that you guys saw differently?

I mean, people like "corporations are bad". I think she could've done some things better, but she relayed all the right points and comes across as genuine about them.

 

[Joedaman55]

I mean, people like "corporations are bad". I think she could've done some things better, but she relayed all the right points and comes across as genuine about them.

Eh, she still feels fake to me and too braggy but I understand the consistency viewpoint.

 

[waiguoren]

Klobuchar was done as soon as she entered the race lol. But I think she just comes off as insanely unlikeable and everyone got to see it. Her platform doesn't even matter, she gets me about as excited as Ngannou vs Lewis.

She’s been a strong candidate in MN and could have given Trump issues in the rust belt. I think she wasted multiple opportunities tonight and is going to fade out soon.

 

[Omni1]

God this is a load of shit, what a terrible format.

warren probably doing the best, she's coming across likable, and talks the talk

She's very authentic. Did you know that she is Native American & likes to drink beer just like ordinary middle class people?

 

[waiguoren]

I’m shocked people that Warren looked well, I just saw a bunch of incoherent rambling and talking about how she’s the greatest underdog ever and corporations are bad.

What did I miss that you guys saw differently?

I felt she had a middling performance but the whole thing was set up as a “Warren press conference” as my buddy put it. She benefits from that.

 

[rev0lver]

She’s been a strong candidate in MN and could have given Trump issues in the rust belt. I think she wasted multiple opportunities tonight and is going to fade out soon.

I don't see someone like Klobuchar doing shit in the rust belt. She wins her senate races that republicans don't even try for. The idea of more centrist/conservative democrats being needed for the rust belt is an extremely tired, probably wrong idea. She'd excite approximately 0 new voters and the actual conservatives will still vote for the more conservative candidate in Trump.

 

[Roads55]

to me warren just came across as more genuine, i think people will like that. still don't think she wins, and am anticipating a small drift in her price.

 

[waiguoren]

I don't see someone like Klobuchar doing shit in the rust belt. She wins her senate races that republicans don't even try for. The idea of more centrist/conservative democrats being needed for the rust belt is an extremely tired, probably wrong idea. She'd excite approximately 0 new voters and the actual conservatives will still vote for the more conservative candidate in Trump.

What do you mean the Republicans don't really try? According to Nate Silver, she's one of the Senate's top performers relative to her state's partisan lean. She's a big name in MN and that probably carries over to WI. Home field advantage is big in politics.

Trump's victory in the rustbelt was very narrow. I think trade/industrial policy is the big rustbelt issues and Klobuchar doesn't have Clinton's liabilities there.

Finally, the goal wouldn't be to turn out conservatives, but independents and the people who voted for both Obama and Trump.

 

[rev0lver]

What do you mean the Republicans don't really try? According to Nate Silver, she's one of the Senate's top performers relative to her state's partisan lean. She's a big name in MN and that probably carries over to WI. Home field advantage is big in politics.

Trump's victory in the rustbelt was very narrow. I think trade/industrial policy is the big rustbelt issues and Klobuchar doesn't have Clinton's liabilities there.

Finally, the goal wouldn't be to turn out conservatives, but independents and the people who voted for both Obama and Trump.

I'm not gonna pretend I follow MN politics incredibly closely, but she raises bucketloads of money for her campaigns there and republicans have hardly tried to fight it with their own.

And well, it's a misunderstanding on how people see independents. Polling shows they're pretty progressive on single issues, and they respond to populism. They like real promises of change. They're not people who could vote either way but get captured by moderates' ties to oil executives and support for the Saudi prince. Klobuchar is pretty similar to a politician like Claire McCaskill (Klobuchar is better imo, but similar enough). McCaskill lost her Missouri senate seat last election by 6 points. In that same election, Missouri voted to raise the minimum wage by a whopping 25 points.

There's a reason there was so much crossover between the Trump camp and the Sanders camp last election, but not between Trump and Clinton. Klobuchar gives independents nothing to really resonate with, while a Sanders or Warren type gives them promises (realistic or not) of a better quality of life. If they're already not on board with the LGBT/abortion/etc issues all the candidates share, they're going to want to see alternatives to the status quo, and the Klobuchar types aren't providing that.

late edit: I also think the Warren/Sanders types (or even Yang) has huge potential to bring out new voters, while a Klobuchar does not. If you're not exciting the party's base, you're not going to see anything new. Young voters are still probably the biggest demographic that doesn't vote enough, and they alone could turn a red state purple.

 

[Omni1]

Tulsi Gabbard wins last nights clown show debate.

https://www.drudgereport.com/



I said it months ago. Tulsi Gabbard is the only Dem candidate who has a chance to defeat President Trump. It takes an anti-establishment candidate to beat an anti-establishment President.

 

[rev0lver]

I said it months ago. Tulsi Gabbard is the only Dem candidate who has a chance to defeat President Trump. It takes an anti-establishment candidate to beat an anti-establishment President.

Do you not consider Sanders, Warren, and Yang to be anti-establishment? I agree that an anti-establishment populist is the best opponent to an anti-establishment populist, but I consider those 3 to be more in-line with that description than Gabbard.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Do you not consider Sanders, Warren, and Yang to be anti-establishment? I agree that an anti-establishment populist is the best opponent to an anti-establishment populist, but I consider those 3 to be more in-line with that description than Gabbard.

I somewhat consider Bernie and Warren establishment in regards to that they've been in politics forever, and while their message is different they're definitely not an outsider like trump was, a truly anti establishment candidate.

Perhaps the meaning of the word has changed a bit since Trump?

 

[rev0lver]

I somewhat consider Bernie and Warren establishment in regards to that they've been in politics forever, and while their message is different they're definitely not an outsider like trump was, a truly anti establishment candidate.

Perhaps the meaning of the word has changed a bit since Trump?

Well I guess I define "anti-establishment" as "against the establishment" rather than "outside the establishment". You can be outside of it without really being against them. Howard Schultz is someone who's an outsider but still extremely pro-establishment.

Also, Gabbard's been a politician her whole adult life outside her military service, so idk how much that holds up anyway.

 

[Roads55]

biden going for the "feel sorry for me" route

 

[Roads55]

harris is doing well so far, im an hour behind though

 

[Roads55]

biden getting slaughtered

 

[rev0lver]

Biden totally fell apart in his first major night lmao. If people didn't think he was going to slip there should be no argument now. Everything post-debate and from his campaign within just an hour afterward is even worse. Best case scenario from him is that the Marianne Williamson memes overtake the conversation.

Not a great night by Sanders imo, but he'll move forward fine.

Yang was extremely disappointing. Said practically nothing, I don't think he even mentioned the automation issue? (edit: apparently he did near the beginning, I missed that part) I thought he was being shafted by the moderators, but when he did speak he didn't deliver enough.

Buttigieg spoke pretty well. I even thought he handled the policing issue well until he got hit hard by Swalwell. Interesting to see how his performance goes over.

Kamala Harris did fantastic. If I had to choose a winner from tonight, it'd probably be her.

 

[Roads55]

harris has now gone favorite, she definitely did the best, biden didn't do terrible but he just looked so lacklustre. bernie was a little disappointing but he finished well. buttigieg did ok but he came across a little forgettable